POLITICS SCHMALITICS

[romad1]

Reading in the freep this morning that some towns voted against pot dispensaries in Metro Detroit.  I can see that.  Its like having a strip club next door.  Michigan was definitely the wild west when I was last there.  The entire town of Monroe as I drove through it because of a detour on I-75 smelled like a skunk tannery because apparently as the first big town as you arrive in the state is just chock full of them.   Also, there were ads on my gas pump's intrusive advertising screen telling me how wonderful it was to go to a particular dispensary.  Its amusing but also shocking to see how that issue has developed. 

Its legal.  If that's what you are into...knock yourself out.  But, i definitely get how a nice neighborhood wouldn't want all that in their midst.

[mtutiger]

18 minutes ago, romad1 said:

This is why its good not to swallow media-driven narratives.

I think people have some awareness that the kleptocrats are trying to ride the coattails of the theocrats.

I have no proof oh whether it is a true desire to elevate Trump or not, but there's an element of laziness to their reporting. My own two cents is that they outsource a lot of their shoeleather reporting to polls and draw simple conclusions to them, often grounded in past precedents. 

Which, I don't know, a lot of what we are seeing out in the field (ie. GOP getting their asses kicked while an unpopular Dem is in office) is fairly unprecedented. And polls alone might not be enough to explain what is actually going on under the hood.

[RatkoVarda]

one simple answer is the media made mad $$$ when Trump was in office; the bottom line is best served by 1) Trump in office with constant outrage, next best is 2) new dem blood, which would drive some interest and maybe pull in some young folk; and lastly 3) Biden, a really boring old dude

[mtutiger]

It seems the explanation being produced this morning is that Democrats are now the high-propensity voters and that turnout will be different next year.

Which is true, next year should be a more GOP leaning environment, I won't argue that. But with results last night, I'm guessing that in most (or all of these races) that younger and non-white voters voted in favor of Dem candidates / causes by massive margins. So, going off of this, logically this would mean that groups voting 40-50+% in favor of Dem candidates / causes are going to turn around in 2024 and run about even in a matchup between Donald Trump / Joe Biden.

If I was producing the polls or writing the op-eds, I would be asking whether any of that passes the smell test. I don't expect those groups to have that wide of a gap in 2024, but a 50% swing seems unlikely to me.

[Motor City Sonics]

40 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

one simple answer is the media made mad $$$ when Trump was in office; the bottom line is best served by 1) Trump in office with constant outrage, next best is 2) new dem blood, which would drive some interest and maybe pull in some young folk; and lastly 3) Biden, a really boring old dude

But I WANT boring.  Obama was boring.   Do the ****ing job.   I think Biden is doing a really good job.     Tired of this whole celebrity worship crap. 

[oblong]

1 hour ago, romad1 said:

Reading in the freep this morning that some towns voted against pot dispensaries in Metro Detroit.  I can see that.  Its like having a strip club next door.  Michigan was definitely the wild west when I was last there.  The entire town of Monroe as I drove through it because of a detour on I-75 smelled like a skunk tannery because apparently as the first big town as you arrive in the state is just chock full of them.   Also, there were ads on my gas pump's intrusive advertising screen telling me how wonderful it was to go to a particular dispensary.  Its amusing but also shocking to see how that issue has developed. 

Its legal.  If that's what you are into...knock yourself out.  But, i definitely get how a nice neighborhood wouldn't want all that in their midst.

Yeah I am not a fan.  I don't care what people do.  I just don't want to smell it and I don't want to be bombarded with the adverts for it.  I drive to Ohio 3 times recently and noticed the plethora of signs in Monroe.  A friend came up to visit us and she commented "I have to stop at a place on the way back for my brother" and she laughed, then I understood.

It's always very evident when you are passing through a town where it's legally sold.

 

[romad1]

4 minutes ago, oblong said:

Yeah I am not a fan.  I don't care what people do.  I just don't want to smell it and I don't want to be bombarded with the adverts for it.  I drive to Ohio 3 times recently and noticed the plethora of signs in Monroe.  A friend came up to visit us and she commented "I have to stop at a place on the way back for my brother" and she laughed, then I understood.

It's always very evident when you are passing through a town where it's legally sold.

 

Very true about Washington, DC on a random night out with the wife.  

[CMRivdogs]

2 hours ago, romad1 said:

Reading in the freep this morning that some towns voted against pot dispensaries in Metro Detroit.  I can see that.  Its like having a strip club next door.  Michigan was definitely the wild west when I was last there.  The entire town of Monroe as I drove through it because of a detour on I-75 smelled like a skunk tannery because apparently as the first big town as you arrive in the state is just chock full of them.   Also, there were ads on my gas pump's intrusive advertising screen telling me how wonderful it was to go to a particular dispensary.  Its amusing but also shocking to see how that issue has developed. 

Its legal.  If that's what you are into...knock yourself out.  But, i definitely get how a nice neighborhood wouldn't want all that in their midst.

The last time I was back I drove thru Wall Lake. That village has to be the pot capitol of Metro Detroit. I think I counted 5 dispensaries and 'provision shops' on Maple alone 

[mtutiger]

45 minutes ago, oblong said:

Yeah I am not a fan.  I don't care what people do.  I just don't want to smell it and I don't want to be bombarded with the adverts for it.  I drive to Ohio 3 times recently and noticed the plethora of signs in Monroe.  A friend came up to visit us and she commented "I have to stop at a place on the way back for my brother" and she laughed, then I understood.

It's always very evident when you are passing through a town where it's legally sold.

 

My impression from moving back to the Midwest is true Michigan is the Las Vegas of weed sales.

It's legal here too but, because of regulation and taxes, people will still drive to New Buffalo for it

Edited November 8, 2023 by mtutiger

[Tigerbomb13]

In Hazel Park, you couldn’t throw a rock without hitting one when I was there two years ago. The one good thing about having so many is that prices have dropped on edibles considerably over the last few years. 🤙 

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, romad1 said:

The entire town of Monroe as I drove through it because of a detour on I-75 smelled like a skunk tannery because apparently as the first big town as you arrive in the state is just chock full of them.

Ohio just legalized so that problem just got taken care of for the people of Monroe.

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

one simple answer is the media made mad $$$ when Trump was in office; the bottom line is best served by 1) Trump in office with constant outrage, next best is 2) new dem blood, which would drive some interest and maybe pull in some young folk; and lastly 3) Biden, a really boring old dude

 

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

It seems the explanation being produced this morning is that Democrats are now the high-propensity voters and that turnout will be different next year.

Which is true, next year should be a more GOP leaning environment, I won't argue that. But with results last night, I'm guessing that in most (or all of these races) that younger and non-white voters voted in favor of Dem candidates / causes by massive margins. So, going off of this, logically this would mean that groups voting 40-50+% in favor of Dem candidates / causes are going to turn around in 2024 and run about even in a matchup between Donald Trump / Joe Biden.

If I was producing the polls or writing the op-eds, I would be asking whether any of that passes the smell test. I don't expect those groups to have that wide of a gap in 2024, but a 50% swing seems unlikely to me.

I think polling models are falling apart for a lot of reasons and political pollsters tend to be whistling past the graveyard about it. 

There was a interesting piece in the Times about phone etiquette and we reached a point of complete inversion. It is now expected that you never answer a cell phone call in real time and compared to earlier generations when a call has so much priority you would answer a it in preference to a live conversation you were in the midst of. And the land line phone is rapidly becoming extinct and cell phone numbers don't localize reliably by area code. Add to the basic problem of the their tool transforming, that the style of use of that tool also completely age dependent, and then finally what I think is the  most difficult problem is a basic shift in how American's use language. The pollsters are stuck with an un-resolvable contradiction: They need to keep asking questions with the same wording in order for their previous modeling to apply, but Americans are not using language the same way we used to. A far more flippant and faux negative style of communication has become the norm in the US. An American will respond negatively about almost anything as a first response today, regardless of how seriously they actually hold any kind of formulated negative view - negative has become the default cultural stance, and this is a change from previous generations where the default linguistic stance was generally more positive. I believe this is a significant but largely unrecognized issue in opinion polling.

[mtutiger]

19 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

 

I think polling models are falling apart for a lot of reasons and political pollsters tend to be whistling past the graveyard about it. 

There was a interesting piece in the Times about phone etiquette and we reached a point of complete inversion. It is now expected that you never answer a cell phone call in real time and compared to earlier generations when a call has so much priority you would answer a it in preference to a live conversation you were in the midst of. And the land line phone is rapidly becoming extinct and cell phone numbers don't localize reliably by area code. Add to the basic problem of the their tool transforming, that the style of use of that tool also completely age dependent, and then finally what I think is the  most difficult problem is a basic shift in how American's use language. The pollsters are stuck with an un-resolvable contradiction: They need to keep asking questions with the same wording in order for their previous modeling to apply, but Americans are not using language the same way we used to. A far more flippant and faux negative style of communication has become the norm in the US. An American will respond negatively about almost anything as a first response today, regardless of how seriously they actually hold any kind of formulated negative view - negative has become the default cultural stance, and this is a change from previous generations where the default linguistic stance was generally more positive. I believe this is a significant but largely unrecognized issue in opinion polling.

I don't want to lean too hard into the "polls are all wrong" considering that, all told, the pollsters who played in yesterday's election (except Emerson, who continued their trend from 2022 of overestimating GOP results by about 5 points) largely had decent nights overall. Of course, there wasn't a whole lot of polling of any of the races at play last night to begin with though, but it's worth noting.

But I think, to your point, one thing that isn't being discussed that should maybe be explored is whether non-response bias is a factor. Not just because of modes of contact for poll respondents, but also because this has been a tougher period for the President and, historically, that situation tends to lead to a less representative set of responses.

It was talked about quite a bit during 2020 as being a reason why polls were understating Trump support (2020, as we all know, was a really tough period for Trump because of COVID and how he handled it), but the internalized view of polling (then and now, whether it's accurate or not) is that it always understates GOP/Trump support, so I wonder if those vibes might be inhibiting the discourse here as well.

But that's also on top of the reads on younger/non-white voters.... The Times/Siena polls, along with a few national polls, are telling a story (ie. 18-29 being about even) that is radically different than a year ago or three years ago. I don't blame the Times for standing behind it's polling, and certainly it has a good reputation as a pollster, but I would expect maybe just a little more circumspection about that kind of finding as well.

Edited November 8, 2023 by mtutiger

[ewsieg]

Our local community approved to continue an existing millage on non-homestead properties for our schools and didn't vote the guy that wanted to remove offensive (to him) books from our public library.  

Nice win/win for our community.

[1984Echoes]

3 hours ago, romad1 said:

Reading in the freep this morning that some towns voted against pot dispensaries in Metro Detroit.  I can see that.  Its like having a strip club next door.  Michigan was definitely the wild west when I was last there.  The entire town of Monroe as I drove through it because of a detour on I-75 smelled like a skunk tannery because apparently as the first big town as you arrive in the state is just chock full of them.   Also, there were ads on my gas pump's intrusive advertising screen telling me how wonderful it was to go to a particular dispensary.  Its amusing but also shocking to see how that issue has developed. 

Its legal.  If that's what you are into...knock yourself out.  But, i definitely get how a nice neighborhood wouldn't want all that in their midst.

That means zoning is critical.

Obviously it should be OK in commercial areas... but what about mixed commercial/residential (that seems an easy voted no "not in my neighborhood")? But also... commercial should (IMO) have reasonable restrictions like not near schools, etc...

[CMRivdogs]

45 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

 

 

There was a interesting piece in the Times about phone etiquette and we reached a point of complete inversion. It is now expected that you never answer a cell phone call in real time and compared to earlier generations when a call has so much priority you would answer a it in preference to a live conversation you were in the midst of. 

I got into a fight a couple of years ago with my pulmonary doctor over this. (Among other things) He had prescribed a drug that could only be issued thru a speciality pharmacy. 
At the visit after him prescribing the drug he asked how I was tolerating it. I told him I've never heard from anyone. He went off on me, telling me I should always answer my phone even though I didn't recognize the number. 
Turns out they never put the prescription in, same with a referral to another specialist. The guy dropped me after that visit.

[mtutiger]

30 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Our local community approved to continue an existing millage on non-homestead properties for our schools and didn't vote the guy that wanted to remove offensive (to him) books from our public library.  

Nice win/win for our community.

In general, nationwide beyond the more covered races, it was a pretty terrible night overall for the book-ban / culture war GOP types from what I can tell.

Edited November 8, 2023 by mtutiger

[Motor City Sonics]

We can't advertise it on the air because it's not Federally legal yet.   I mean legally they could advertise it, but they won't until it's Federal.   Now you may say to yourself that weed stores don't need to advertise but we're in Hash Bash city here in Ann Arbor and there are so many dispensaries that many are starting to fail, they actually could use some advertising. 

[oblong]

I know some very well off folks who work for them at the corporate level.... of course, they wouldn't want the places near where they live.

But it's fine to make money off it.... sure.

 

[VegasTiger]

I don't know the nuts and bolts of the law here but aside from the cannabis amusement parks  on the other side of the highway from the strip, it's not bad here at all. Dispensarys dotted around town here and there. Not hard to find one but not in your face either.

[Tigeraholic1]

17 hours ago, VegasTiger said:

I don't know the nuts and bolts of the law here but aside from the cannabis amusement parks  on the other side of the highway from the strip, it's not bad here at all. Dispensarys dotted around town here and there. Not hard to find one but not in your face either.

What are these said amusement parks?

[VegasTiger]

6 hours ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

What are these said amusement parks?

https://area15.com/

Cannabis consumption lounge opening soon there.

https://www.planet13lasvegas.com/

All things cannabis.

[Tigeraholic1]

46 minutes ago, VegasTiger said:

https://area15.com/

Cannabis consumption lounge opening soon there.

https://www.planet13lasvegas.com/

All things cannabis.

If there is a dollar to be made Vegas will do it first.

[Tiger337]

On 11/8/2023 at 7:16 AM, RatkoVarda said:

one simple answer is the media made mad $$$ when Trump was in office; the bottom line is best served by 1) Trump in office with constant outrage, next best is 2) new dem blood, which would drive some interest and maybe pull in some young folk; and lastly 3) Biden, a really boring old dude

Yup, we try to make things complicated but it's always about $$$.  Always.  The media makes big money when Trump is in the news.  In fact, they are going to do everything they can to keep him in the news all next year running up to the election.  They'll boost him up too necause they need him to survive.  And the more his name stays out there, the more legitimate he seems.  

Edited November 9, 2023 by Tiger337

[ewsieg]

https://news.yahoo.com/theyre-clearing-homeless-people-san-202319014.html

In playing the perfect host, San Fran is adapting to their slightly more right leaning guests and cleaning up the city a bit.