POLITICS SCHMALITICS

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

Great win for the progressives in Chicago.

 

[Motown Bombers]

It's really telling that a lot of right wingers felt their only path to defeating Biden in 2024 was this supreme court election in Wisconsin. 

[Motown Bombers]

This judge became the second right winger to lose in Wisconsin this year.

[mtutiger]

Also the case in the Chicago election as well (which I was wrong about personally, although it was close), but one thing that struck me about the Wisconsin Supreme Court race is how, despite all of the prognosticators predicting a close race, there was very little evidence of it. And a lot of those prognostications were backed up on rather specious grounds; things like "will the Donald Trump indictment motivate people to the polls" all while kinda ignoring or papering over the obvious fact that abortion / election denial actually matters a lot to voters, particularly the kinds of voters who show up for off-year elections.

We have debated media bias a lot over the years, and it's not false to suggest that, editorially, the NYT and Washington Post isn't a safe space for Republicans. On the other hand, even to the extent that there is bias, GOP operatives do an absolutely amazing job of controlling and setting the narrative of what gets talked about. Not just in those papers but on cable news as well. And the amount of people in the media who sat there and suggested that the DJT Indictment was potentially a game changer is proof.... just completely out of touch.

It makes you wonder if all of these entities need to buy some office space or relocate their political writers to Chicago, so they can at least be close enough to the Midwestern swing states to be able to credibly report on it. Because, over six years removed from Donald Trump winning in 2016, they still don't seem to have a good understanding of the region at all.

Edited April 5, 2023 by mtutiger

[Motown Bombers]

Maybe instead of visiting rural diners in Ohio they visit a barbershop in inner city Detroit. 

[mtutiger]

Another piece of evidence... this is supposedly one of the best vote counters in the business, and he was consistently wrong every step of the way as the returns came in. At the time of his first tweet, it was evident that with the outstanding vote in Dane/MKE/BOW and Kelly's tepid rural performance that the difference would land over 10 points.

[Motown Bombers]

The worst part is Democrats bought into as well. Ron Johnson was beatable and they punted on Wisconsin. I said as soon as the new maps came out in Michigan that MI-10 was winnable and Haley Stevens bolted to carpetbag in MI-11. They left Marlinga on his own severely underfunded and came within 1,600 votes of winning. 

[oblong]

23 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Also the case in the Chicago election as well (which I was wrong about personally, although it was close), but one thing that struck me about the Wisconsin Supreme Court race is how, despite all of the prognosticators predicting a close race, there was very little evidence of it. And a lot of those prognostications were backed up on rather specious grounds; things like "will the Donald Trump indictment motivate people to the polls" all while kinda ignoring or papering over the obvious fact that abortion / election denial actually matters a lot to voters, particularly the kinds of voters who show up for off-year elections.

We have debated media bias a lot over the years, and it's not false to suggest that, editorially, the NYT and Washington Post isn't a safe space for Republicans. On the other hand, even to the extent that there is bias, GOP operatives do an absolutely amazing job of controlling and setting the narrative of what gets talked about. Not just in those papers but on cable news as well. And the amount of people in the media who sat there and suggested that the DJT Indictment was potentially a game changer is proof.... just completely out of touch.

It makes you wonder if all of these entities need to buy some office space or relocate their political writers to Chicago, so they can at least be close enough to the Midwestern swing states to be able to credibly report on it. Because, over six years removed from Donald Trump winning in 2016, they still don't seem to have a good understanding of the region at all.

I wonder how much of that is due to budgetary cuts in big media.  Or could just be laziness.  It's the old Pauline Kael joke about Nixon, "Nobody I know voted for him".  The media is not journalism. The media wants ratings and clicks and eyeballs.  Republicans apparently sell.  

 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[mtutiger]

20 minutes ago, oblong said:

I wonder how much of that is due to budgetary cuts in big media.  Or could just be laziness.  It's the old Pauline Kael joke about Nixon, "Nobody I know voted for him".  The media is not journalism. The media wants ratings and clicks and eyeballs.  Republicans apparently sell.  

 

Just my two cents, but there are two things going on here: one, for most of the people in the industry, the 2016 Presidential Election and the shock of it is the most formative event in their careers. And I don't know if it's because of the cultural differences between them and the base of Trump's supporters (ie. highly educated vs. more WWC) or what, but I think they have a tendency to define the Midwest swing states heavily based on the perception developed during this election. When in reality, the region is more complicated than that.... they ruminate a lot more on diners in the Midwest than they do, say, Kent County or the WOW counties, and it causes them to miss the boat a *lot*

Two, a lot of these people sit in either New York or Washington/VA suburbs when they are opining on these races. Particularly the forecasters, like Wasserman or Amy Walter, but a lot of the journalists as well.... I wouldn't say that there isn't a role for their jobs or that they don't have more insight on these races than the average person, per se, but most of their interaction or insight is likely coming from campaigns and not so much from on-the-ground insight. And the downside to relying on individual campaigns in reporting or forecasting these races is that these individual campaigns absolutely can influence the coverage or get the reporting / spin that they want, even if it's completely bull****.

There are a few good ones out there.... I don't love how Dave Weigel from the WaPo lets his bias show through at times, but the guy is actually out there reporting and, more times than not, tends to understand the contours of the races he covers better than most. But largely, political coverage of these states is just crap.

Also, along with point two, also because a lot of them sit in the Washington/VA suburbs, they took away a LOT from the VA Governors race in 2021 and that helped shape perceptions of elections going forward, and that hasn't worked out at all... a lot of what has transpired since has me questioning whether any of the takeaways from that race, particularly on "wokeness" in schools and whatnot, are based in reality.

Edited April 5, 2023 by mtutiger

[Motown Bombers]

It seemed to me the turning point was Kansas. That should have been a flashing neon sign that things were different but they treated it as something that would be forgotten about. Even after Alaska and the New York special election. 

Another pet peeve of mine is the way they spin Macomb County as Trump country. It's not the case. Southern Macomb County is very blue. The black population in Macomb County is growing rapidly. They just ignore that. Whitmer has now won Macomb County twice. It's still a swingy county. 

Pet peeve number two is that I'm not willing to accept yet that Florida is a red state. Trump won Florida by the same margin Biden won Michigan but the pundits act like Florida is now Alabama and Michigan is still a swing state. 

[CMRivdogs]

13 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Also, along with point two, also because a lot of them sit in the Washington/VA suburbs, they took away a LOT from the VA Governors race in 2021 and that helped shape perceptions of elections going forward, and that hasn't worked out at all... a lot of what has transpired since has me questioning whether any of the takeaways from that race, particularly on "wokeness" in schools and whatnot, are based in reality.

For the most part you're probably correct. From the standpoint of one who was adjacent to the "news media' at least before they were included in the profit centers of the corporations and have a bit of historical knowledge of the state, I think there were a few other factors at work in Younkin's 2021 victory.

I also believe the fact there are relatively few places where "up and coming" reporters can receive hands on training is also a factor in the current mentality. With many newsrooms either completely cut in smaller markets or reduced to one or two "bodies" they don't get the experience of covering a local zoning board meeting or the opening of a new restaurant,

I'll get off my soapbox and go back to yelling at barking dogs...

[Motown Bombers]

 

[mtutiger]

39 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

For the most part you're probably correct. From the standpoint of one who was adjacent to the "news media' at least before they were included in the profit centers of the corporations and have a bit of historical knowledge of the state, I think there were a few other factors at work in Younkin's 2021 victory.

I would be curious to hear your thoughts given your familiarity with the area.... I guess one theory that I have is that the issues that Youngkin scored on the suburbs regarding schools may have been more related to COVID shutdowns than anything to do with culture wars, and that salience is now largely gone given that the pandemic has receded.

Obviously Dobbs is a factor as well (that hadn't happened at the time of Youngkin's election), but either way, there's a trap that the media falls in when extrapolating results from a race in their backyard to other parts of the country.

[mtutiger]

59 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

It seemed to me the turning point was Kansas. That should have been a flashing neon sign that things were different but they treated it as something that would be forgotten about. Even after Alaska and the New York special election.

Even beyond New York, there were other special elections where Dems lost but overperformed the fundamentals as well last year. Largely, that stuff was just ignored as November approached. Political journalists seemed to assume that just because there Dobbs headlines had receded from view, inflation was still an issue, etc. that it didn't matter to people and it was just incorrect.

[Motown Bombers]

5 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Even beyond New York, there were other special elections where Dems lost but overperformed the fundamentals as well last year. Largely, that stuff was just ignored as November approached. Political journalists seemed to assume that just because there Dobbs headlines had receded from view, inflation was still an issue, etc. that it didn't matter to people and it was just incorrect.

The media got hung up on what was supposed to happen. What had happened in previous times. There was never evidence of a red wave post Dobbs. It showed in elections and voter registration. Women and young people in general were registering in droves. The media was also buying into the junk polls the right was putting out. Remember RCP had Tudor winning Michigan. We were being flooded with suspect right wing polls and even 538 was eating them up. 

[oblong]

I used to like RCP back in the mid 2000's... they didn't come across to me as right wing.  

 

[RatkoVarda]

VA has weird contrarian results where gov elected is almost always of other party in White House.

Terry McAuliffe was a god awful boring choice. And they keep Trump from coming to Va. That was the key.

Youngkin is a weasel who has no political future. He is just going through the MAGA list: stolen elections, woke, communist. Yawn. He does not believe it. Wearing his stupid vest, endorsing 10 wacko MAGAs who all lost in 2022. 

Va GOP was sick and tired of losing state wide elections for 12 years, so they were all in on a guy who was "normal".

And his 17-year old son tried to vote twice for his dad.

[Motown Bombers]

I have to wonder if Virginia didn't have that silly rule about incumbents not being able to run for reelection would have changed things? I think Northam wins. 

Guess I don't understand since McAuliffe left with solid job approval. Oh well, I hope Virginians are excited now. 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[RatkoVarda]

[1984Echoes]

23 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding!

Simple but sweet. And very very accurate.

[CMRivdogs]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

I would be curious to hear your thoughts given your familiarity with the area.... I guess one theory that I have is that the issues that Youngkin scored on the suburbs regarding schools may have been more related to COVID shutdowns than anything to do with culture wars, and that salience is now largely gone given that the pandemic has receded.

Obviously Dobbs is a factor as well (that hadn't happened at the time of Youngkin's election), but either way, there's a trap that the media falls in when extrapolating results from a race in their backyard to other parts of the country.

COVID may have played a small part but Youngkin grabbed onto the whole school choice thing with both hands. McAuliffe stumbled badly in one of the debates about whether parents should have control over what is taught in schools. That was the issue IMO that turned the race. It clicked with parents who very seldom attend PTA meetings let alone school board discussions. (Yes he was a horrible candidate as well).
Meanwhile Youngkin also lucked into the nomination by appearing as the least crazy of the QOP contenders. The weird drive in, firehouse primary convention thing was a perfect set up for him.  The fleece vest, "successful" businessman, nice guy bit played well with the CBN/Liberty Crowd. And to those who don't play as close attention to politics as some of us do he was considered a safe choice. Keeping his distance from Trump and the crazies while appealing to the moderate right. Meanwhile his first 18 months have been a bit a disaster. 
 

And yes 12 years of Democratic control of the Governor's Office was a factor IMO. 

[chasfh]

On 4/4/2023 at 10:11 PM, Motown Bombers said: