Al Avila: “You’ve got to go full bore from Day 1"

[chasfh]

The part about future roster exercises I find most entertaining is that they never contemplate any trades, free agent signings, prospect surprises or player flameouts. They are always our organization today plus X years. Practically by definition, I guess.

[KL2]

59 minutes ago, chasfh said:

The part about future roster exercises I find most entertaining is that they never contemplate any trades, free agent signings, prospect surprises or player flameouts. They are always our organization today plus X years. Practically by definition, I guess.

Bingo. 

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

The part about future roster exercises I find most entertaining is that they never contemplate any trades, free agent signings, prospect surprises or player flameouts. They are always our organization today plus X years. Practically by definition, I guess.

With prospects in particular, I don't even mind the past couple of drafts on paper (although would have preferred they not draft Jobe), but I dont know how realistic it is to assume that anymore than 2-3 guys make it out of either of them under any circumstance.

It's not even so much an indictment of the front office or the new player development folks and more of a realization that all of these guys, like Jung or Graham or Jobe or Madden, are still capable of flaming out as they move up the ladder. That happens even to good orgs, let alone this one where success has been elusive.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

The part about future roster exercises I find most entertaining is that they never contemplate any trades, free agent signings, prospect surprises or player flameouts. They are always our organization today plus X years. Practically by definition, I guess.

Baseball America has been doing this for years and they are almost always wildly wrong.

It would be hard for this team to have a trajectory similar to the 78-84 Tigers simply because it is rare for any team to come together as beautifully as that one did.  It's possible, but it's a longshot by definition.  First, they would have to develop Whitaker, Trammell, Morris, Petry, Parrish and later Gibson.  That is a remarkable collection of homegrown players.  Then they have to be smart enough to make trades for Lemon, Hernandez, Lopez, Wilcox, Berenguer  and Herndon.  They only signed one free agent (Evans) and he wasn't even a big part of the championship team.  There is nothing about the current Tigers organization which makes me think they are going to pull all of that off.  The belief that they will  do it is totally based on faith and not based on any likelihood.    

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

The part about future roster exercises I find most entertaining is that they never contemplate any trades, free agent signings, prospect surprises or player flameouts. They are always our organization today plus X years. Practically by definition, I guess.

The flipside is...

You are not wrong on multiple points in here.

Can't project trades or FA's because who knows what the future holds for either of these; they are just too much of an unknown. But the flipside is... if you have a healthy farm system, then if there is a position weakness in the future, a team can either spend some money on a key free agent, or have the right prospects to trade for a key player... like Miggy or the just completed Soto trade. I don't think we have the right prospects - today - for that. But What I also mean by what I just said is that so many of our potential "upside" prospects in our pipeline are 18-20 and just drafted or just coming over to the US from the International Leagues that they still have to develop into viable prospects for the Tigers or as potential trade prospects.

On prospect surprises or player flameouts... also 100% correct. It is more a simple exercise, or "list", of "upside" prospects. Without regard to flameouts or surprises.

However, the flipside to that is...

If we only had one or two guys that we were really relying on to "make it", to MLB, to be a potential "impact" players... we'd have a very weak, talent-deficient system. Top heavy.

I don't think we have a weak, talent-deficient system. I think we have an exceedingly young system. That puts more risk on the development side, and the possibility of a lot of flameouts. But it also says we have a boatload of lottery tickets that we hope several WILL make it through the system and up in MLB. Or to be used as trade ammunition. And I believe the list I threw out there (not every guy on there has a high upside.. some are just Org players... but on the flipside, there IS a lot of high-end talent on that list... which is now on the Tigers Development team to actually develop them...).

And it's not like we don't have ANY talent in the system. In fact, we DO have a lot of talent in the system. High end talent. A LOT of it. It's just that a whole lot of that high end talent is, just, very very young.

I prefer our system as is. With a crapload of high-end upside talent... and young... than our 1980's, 1990's, and 2010's barren systems. 

It took Avila too long to fix our farm system... but I think it's different now. It's better. It's loaded. Even if it takes a bit of time to see it as fruitful as we want to see it. And I would just like to point all that out.

That's my flipside.

[casimir]

It isn't the farm system that's loaded.

[microline133]

3 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

I don't think we have a weak, talent-deficient system.

Yes, yes you do. The Tigers system is quite bad right now.

[buddha]

good thing we tanked for this.

[Tiger337]

Tank til we rank!

[romad1]

The punctuation of the thread title.

Al Avila, you've got to go.  Full bore from day 1. 

[Tiger337]

Are we bored yet? 

[oblong]

Chris Ilitch will be at the stadium today for Lou. Will see a packed house. Energy. Tigers might win. They he will think “it’s all good”. 
 

 

[casimir]

Shouldn’t the Tigers be enjoying the fruits of Avila’s earliest drafts as GM right about now?

[romad1]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

Are we bored yet? 

Pain mixed with boredom 

[gkelly]

The St. Louis Cardinals have had 1 season under .500 this century.  Their payroll is usually somewhere between 10th-15th in the league; they don't spend like the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, etc, yet they spend their money wisely.  They are a mid-size market.  The don't ever rebuild but always have a pipeline of competent pitchers coming up from the minors to help keep them in games.  They don't overspend on big time players but aren't afraid to sign a guy to a reasonable contract.  They always have great attendance because fans know they will put a quality product on the field.  St. Louis, to me, is the best run and ideal franchise in pro sports.  This is what the Tigers need to shoot for.

 

[casimir]

The 2016 draft has accrued 4.6 WAR in MLB action to date.  About 4.6 of that 4.6 has been with MLB teams not named the Detroit Tigers.  The two players accounting for that 4.6 were lost due to not signing out of the draft and lost via waivers.  Not sure much else from this crew offers hope.

The 2017 draft has accrued a negative 0.4 WAR.  That’d be nice if this were golf and WAR was par.  Faedo, Vest, and Carlton were in this draft.  Yippee.

The 2018 draft is much better thanks to Mize and Skubal.  They account for 5.8 WAR of the 5.5 total accrued WAR.  Meadows might have some promise still, but it’s been a choppy pro career.

The 2019 draft class is still on the young side.  Greene and Brieske have made their debuts.  There’s still some hope for Kreidler and maybe Lipcius, but it’s just optimistic potential at this point.

But, yeah, time will tell.  How much more time?

[casimir]

2 minutes ago, gkelly said:

The St. Louis Cardinals have had 1 season under .500 this century.  Their payroll is usually somewhere between 10th-15th in the league; they don't spend like the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, etc, yet they spend their money wisely.  They are a mid-size market.  The don't ever rebuild but always have a pipeline of competent pitchers coming up from the minors to help keep them in games.  They don't overspend on big time players but aren't afraid to sign a guy to a reasonable contract.  They always have great attendance because fans know they will put a quality product on the field.  St. Louis, to me, is the best run and ideal franchise in pro sports.  This is what the Tigers need to shoot for.

 

Ain’t gonna happen with Avila.

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, casimir said:

The 2016 draft has accrued 4.6 WAR in MLB action to date.  About 4.6 of that 4.6 has been with MLB teams not named the Detroit Tigers.  The two players accounting for that 4.6 were lost due to not signing out of the draft and lost via waivers.  Not sure much else from this crew offers hope.

The 2017 draft has accrued a negative 0.4 WAR.  That’d be nice if this were golf and WAR was par.  Faedo, Vest, and Carlton were in this draft.  Yippee.

The 2018 draft is much better thanks to Mize and Skubal.  They account for 5.8 WAR of the 5.5 total accrued WAR.  Meadows might have some promise still, but it’s been a choppy pro career.

The 2019 draft class is still on the young side.  Greene and Brieske have made their debuts.  There’s still some hope for Kreidler and maybe Lipcius, but it’s just optimistic potential at this point.

But, yeah, time will tell.  How much more time?

If Tork comes back up and turns it around, 2019 and 2020 will end up being massive improvements over the early Avila years draft-wise

Honestly might be some of the better evidence against drafting pitchers early, which has long been a discussion point on the board lol

Edited August 6, 2022 by mtutiger

[casimir]

23 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

If Tork comes back up and turns it around, 2019 and 2020 will end up being massive improvements over the early Avila years draft-wise

Honestly might be some of the better evidence against drafting pitchers early, which has long been a discussion point on the board lol

I think Torkleson will be fine.  He stumbled out of the gate, it happens.

But there needs to be more out of top of the round slots and more out of this emphasis on building from within.

[Edman85]

2 hours ago, casimir said:

The 2016 draft has accrued 4.6 WAR in MLB action to date.  About 4.6 of that 4.6 has been with MLB teams not named the Detroit Tigers.  The two players accounting for that 4.6 were lost due to not signing out of the draft and lost via waivers.  Not sure much else from this crew offers hope.

The 2017 draft has accrued a negative 0.4 WAR.  That’d be nice if this were golf and WAR was par.  Faedo, Vest, and Carlton were in this draft.  Yippee.

The 2018 draft is much better thanks to Mize and Skubal.  They account for 5.8 WAR of the 5.5 total accrued WAR.  Meadows might have some promise still, but it’s been a choppy pro career.

The 2019 draft class is still on the young side.  Greene and Brieske have made their debuts.  There’s still some hope for Kreidler and maybe Lipcius, but it’s just optimistic potential at this point.

But, yeah, time will tell.  How much more time?

 

I count Foley in 2016. UDFA that was draft eligible should count, IMO. Jimenez in 2013 too. I also count a small sliver of Upton and Zimmermann in 2016, since the second and third round picks were used to get them. Also with 2016, be careful counting Red Sox contributions from Schreiber, since what good does that do?

I count Barnhart for the 2019 draft, since Quintana was traded to get him. Granted, his WAR is negative.

I also count part of Meadows for this year's draft, part of E-Rod too.

On the topic of 2019, that draft has taken a lot of steps forward this year. Lipcius, Bergner, and Carpenter in particular. Brieske too.

Edited August 6, 2022 by Edman85

[Edman85]

2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

If Tork comes back up and turns it around, 2019 and 2020 will end up being massive improvements over the early Avila years draft-wise

Honestly might be some of the better evidence against drafting pitchers early, which has long been a discussion point on the board lol

2020 had better be an improvement! You are picking 1-1!

[Edman85]

7 hours ago, microline133 said:

Yes, yes you do. The Tigers system is quite bad right now.

While this is true, it does kinda drive me crazy that it was a lot stronger up until the moment Riley Greene stepped up to the plate in MLB for the 130th time.

[mtutiger]

3 hours ago, Edman85 said:

2020 had better be an improvement! You are picking 1-1!

Mize was 1-1 as well

[gehringer_2]

32 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

While this is true, it does kinda drive me crazy that it was a lot stronger up until the moment Riley Greene stepped up to the plate in MLB for the 130th time.

 

[1984Echoes]

9 hours ago, microline133 said:

Yes, yes you do. The Tigers system is quite bad right now.

I would like to test this theory...

Because:

A) If our system is quite bad right now, as you say, then we cannot expect more than a couple of guys from the following list to make it to MLB.

B) If however, 3 or more from the following list can conceivably make it to MLB, and be productive, (you can change it to 4 or 5... pick whatever number you want), then we do NOT have a weak system, just a lot of young talented guys that will take a while to develop... which is what I am saying.

So if you would indulge me (or anyone else who wants to take a shot at this)... out of the following list of prospects, who has NO chance of ever making it to MLB, for more than a cup, simply because they are not talented enough to do so. If you can NOT take them off this list as having no chance whatsoever.. then that means exactly what I've said... they have the talent, the potential... but have to go through the development process/ their learning curves to make it all the way.

Short story: If they have a chance, they have the talent. If they just don't have the talent (Org guys or worse), they don't have a chance. (Aside from an emergency/ cup of coffee, or similar... which doesn't count.)

If a guy might only put up a 4 or 5 WAR career (4th OF'er, utility guy, reliever...) that still counts.

So who on the following list has absolutely NO chance of ever making it to MLB:

Dillon Dingler, Josh Crouch, Peyton Graham, Jace Jung, Wenceel Perez, Gage Workman, Christian Santana, Manuel Sequera, Trei Cruz, Colten Keith, Adinso Reyes, Izaac Pacheco, Jose De La Cruz, Parker Meadows, Roberto Campos, Kerry Carpenter, Reese Olson, Jackson Jobe, Wilmer Flores, Ty Madden, Dylan Smith, Brant Hurter, Eddy Felix, Donal Montas, Juan Ruiz.