Al Avila: “You’ve got to go full bore from Day 1"

[casimir]

11 hours ago, Edman85 said:

 

I count Foley in 2016. UDFA that was draft eligible should count, IMO. Jimenez in 2013 too. I also count a small sliver of Upton and Zimmermann in 2016, since the second and third round picks were used to get them. Also with 2016, be careful counting Red Sox contributions from Schreiber, since what good does that do?

I count Barnhart for the 2019 draft, since Quintana was traded to get him. Granted, his WAR is negative.

I also count part of Meadows for this year's draft, part of E-Rod too.

On the topic of 2019, that draft has taken a lot of steps forward this year. Lipcius, Bergner, and Carpenter in particular. Brieske too.

Yes, it wasn't exactly a deep dive into the farm systems, but the earlier drafts leave a bit to be desired.  The focus for Avila going forward was to build up the pipeline.  He was right, the Tigers did need to improve its farm system and its record of drafting & developing its own players was awful.  Makes one wonder why teams would trade established players for Tiger prospects, but Dombrowski did pretty well at that a few times.

As for 2016, you are correct, Schreiber's 2.3 WAR is solely with Boston after Detroit let him go away for nothing.  Additionally, Cub's Keegan Thompson was a 33rd round draftee of the Tigers that draft, but didn't sign.  He was drafted by the Cubs the next season, signed with them, and has produced 2.3 WAR in the MLB for the Cubs.  So, it another 2.3 that got away.

If you want to count Barnhart for 2019 because of the Quintana trade, have at it.  Meadows and Rodriguez for 2022, sure.

We can count Lipcius, Bergner, and Carpenter when they arrive and produce in MLB.  Brieske has, and he's done well considering.

It was just a quick and cheap look at who the Tigers drafted and what they have produced in MLB so far.  It certainly wasn't a complete picture.  It can be called a half assed attempt at analysis, and that's fine.  But I don't think its wrong to point out that the players taken in those drafts, particularly the higher choices, should be in MLB producing right now.  And I just don't think it is necessarily happening, particularly with the earlier drafts and with position players.

[Edman85]

7 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

I would like to test this theory...

Because:

A) If our system is quite bad right now, as you say, then we cannot expect more than a couple of guys from the following list to make it to MLB.

B) If however, 3 or more from the following list can conceivably make it to MLB, and be productive, (you can change it to 4 or 5... pick whatever number you want), then we do NOT have a weak system, just a lot of young talented guys that will take a while to develop... which is what I am saying.

So if you would indulge me (or anyone else who wants to take a shot at this)... out of the following list of prospects, who has NO chance of ever making it to MLB, for more than a cup, simply because they are not talented enough to do so. If you can NOT take them off this list as having no chance whatsoever.. then that means exactly what I've said... they have the talent, the potential... but have to go through the development process/ their learning curves to make it all the way.

Short story: If they have a chance, they have the talent. If they just don't have the talent (Org guys or worse), they don't have a chance. (Aside from an emergency/ cup of coffee, or similar... which doesn't count.)

If a guy might only put up a 4 or 5 WAR career (4th OF'er, utility guy, reliever...) that still counts.

So who on the following list has absolutely NO chance of ever making it to MLB:

Dillon Dingler, Josh Crouch, Peyton Graham, Jace Jung, Wenceel Perez, Gage Workman, Christian Santana, Manuel Sequera, Trei Cruz, Colten Keith, Adinso Reyes, Izaac Pacheco, Jose De La Cruz, Parker Meadows, Roberto Campos, Kerry Carpenter, Reese Olson, Jackson Jobe, Wilmer Flores, Ty Madden, Dylan Smith, Brant Hurter, Eddy Felix, Donal Montas, Juan Ruiz.

So much pretzel logic here.

[microline133]

9 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

I would like to test this theory...

Because:

A) If our system is quite bad right now, as you say, then we cannot expect more than a couple of guys from the following list to make it to MLB.

B) If however, 3 or more from the following list can conceivably make it to MLB, and be productive, (you can change it to 4 or 5... pick whatever number you want), then we do NOT have a weak system, just a lot of young talented guys that will take a while to develop... which is what I am saying.

So if you would indulge me (or anyone else who wants to take a shot at this)... out of the following list of prospects, who has NO chance of ever making it to MLB, for more than a cup, simply because they are not talented enough to do so. If you can NOT take them off this list as having no chance whatsoever.. then that means exactly what I've said... they have the talent, the potential... but have to go through the development process/ their learning curves to make it all the way.

Short story: If they have a chance, they have the talent. If they just don't have the talent (Org guys or worse), they don't have a chance. (Aside from an emergency/ cup of coffee, or similar... which doesn't count.)

If a guy might only put up a 4 or 5 WAR career (4th OF'er, utility guy, reliever...) that still counts.

So who on the following list has absolutely NO chance of ever making it to MLB:

Dillon Dingler, Josh Crouch, Peyton Graham, Jace Jung, Wenceel Perez, Gage Workman, Christian Santana, Manuel Sequera, Trei Cruz, Colten Keith, Adinso Reyes, Izaac Pacheco, Jose De La Cruz, Parker Meadows, Roberto Campos, Kerry Carpenter, Reese Olson, Jackson Jobe, Wilmer Flores, Ty Madden, Dylan Smith, Brant Hurter, Eddy Felix, Donal Montas, Juan Ruiz.

I've spent the better part of the last 15-20 years scouting and analyzing prospects across baseball. One thing I've learned that fans often don't grasp....at any given time, every team in the league has a list of players that looks exactly like that; a bunch of guys with some tools/ability. Many of them will cap out in Double-A or Triple-A, some will get a cup of coffee or a bench role, and a couple will be larger contributors. Regardless of how highly you think of that list of players as a fan, I promise you that will be the distribution.

The thing stronger systems have, aside from a longer list of prospects like those you listed (aka depth), is a separate ( and admittedly shorter) list of players with greater ability and greater odds of being significant contributors....guys you actually begin to plan for as part of your big league roster. The Tigers don't currently have that list, even a very short version of it, and when combined with a general lack of depth, you have a weak system.

[1984Echoes]

Well the biggest point I was trying to make with that list is that 6 years ago, I think that list would have been drastically shorter, and the talent weaker.

I get the distribution part of it.

But I think this farm system's talent compared to 6 years ago, and the quantity of lottery tickets that are currently in the system compared to 6 years ago, means that the distribution still favors multiple MLB contributors making it to the team. Maybe not the highest end talent (since Tork & Greene & Mize & Manning already graduated), but the other contributors that are needed to fill out a team like Matt Joyce, Cody Ross, Dave Rozema, Jason Thompson, etc... Guys who might be traded, or kept, depending on the building of a competitive team, but still, guys that are able to play in MLB, even if they aren't the stars or superstars of the league. Still need those guys to fill out a team. And 1 or 2 may even surprise on the upside.

I guess I was not comparing our potential distribution to other teams, but only against the distribution itself. If we have 5 or 6 guys, or 8, currently in our system that make it to MLB as contributors, whether as utility guys or starters, then it may be enough to mostly fill out a future Tigers team. Any weaknesses filled in with FA's and trades. That may be "weak" comparative to other teams if they have as you say a short list of significant list of potential big leaguers that they can plan around... But with that amount of lottery tickets... maybe I shouldn't say that we don't have a weak system but rather, we have a lot of depth that (hopefully) should result in a fair amount of MLB contributors for the team.

One last point: If you are saying we have no list whatsoever of that high end talent.. are you completely down on Jackson Jobe, Josh Jung, Ty Madden, Roberto Campos, Christian Santana, Manuel Sequira, Izaac Pacheco, etc...? You feel that none of them have high end talent? Just asking... Or do they have high end talent, it's just not as high end as other systems? 

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, Edman85 said:

So much pretzel logic here.

There's no pretzel logic in there whatsoever.

Describe what you think is pretzel logic please...

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, casimir said:

... 

It was just a quick and cheap look at who the Tigers drafted and what they have produced in MLB so far.  It certainly wasn't a complete picture.  It can be called a half assed attempt at analysis, and that's fine.  But I don't think its wrong to point out that the players taken in those drafts, particularly the higher choices, should be in MLB producing right now.  And I just don't think it is necessarily happening, particularly with the earlier drafts and with position players.

The analysis was fine. I wouldn't sweat the minor flaws.

I think the drafted WAR for the Tigers will be going way up over the next few years.

[buddha]

22 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Well the biggest point I was trying to make with that list is that 6 years ago, I think that list would have been drastically shorter, and the talent weaker.

I get the distribution part of it.

But I think this farm system's talent compared to 6 years ago, and the quantity of lottery tickets that are currently in the system compared to 6 years ago, means that the distribution still favors multiple MLB contributors making it to the team. Maybe not the highest end talent (since Tork & Greene & Mize & Manning already graduated), but the other contributors that are needed to fill out a team like Matt Joyce, Cody Ross, Dave Rozema, Jason Thompson, etc... Guys who might be traded, or kept, depending on the building of a competitive team, but still, guys that are able to play in MLB, even if they aren't the stars or superstars of the league. Still need those guys to fill out a team. And 1 or 2 may even surprise on the upside.

I guess I was not comparing our potential distribution to other teams, but only against the distribution itself. If we have 5 or 6 guys, or 8, currently in our system that make it to MLB as contributors, whether as utility guys or starters, then it may be enough to mostly fill out a future Tigers team. Any weaknesses filled in with FA's and trades. That may be "weak" comparative to other teams if they have as you say a short list of significant list of potential big leaguers that they can plan around... But with that amount of lottery tickets... maybe I shouldn't say that we don't have a weak system but rather, we have a lot of depth that (hopefully) should result in a fair amount of MLB contributors for the team.

One last point: If you are saying we have no list whatsoever of that high end talent.. are you completely down on Jackson Jobe, Josh Jung, Ty Madden, Roberto Campos, Christian Santana, Manuel Sequira, Izaac Pacheco, etc...? You feel that none of them have high end talent? Just asking... Or do they have high end talent, it's just not as high end as other systems? 

six years ago you would have said the same thing youre saying today, only the list you created would have had different names.

84, you have a lot of faith.  but that's what it is: faith.  the people that do this for a living dont think much of the tigers' system for a reason...

[1984Echoes]

I think you also asked the question "when" Cas...

Since I am stating that the team build is coming in the future (started the past few years, even if agonizingly slow...).

So: How the heck would I know? It's already been pretty chaotic. There are probably a few key issues right now hanging over their heads, with more to come: (A) Greene & Tork have to conquer their learning curves (MLB pitching), which they haven't done yet. Obviously that's a big key. I'm going to say that they have drastic improvements at the plate all through 2023. May even see some of it to close out this year. But by season 2024, what they show in MLB as hitters will be what they are for the prime of their career. Major improvements next year, 2024+ is who they are. (B) The pitching has to sort itself out. It looks to me like we have enough arms to admirably fill out a rotation, and more arms are coming that I believe in (Olson/ Flores/ etc...); but, who can actually remain healthy? Who gets pushed into middle relief, or gets stuck at AAA waiting for their shot, does anyone get pushed into being a late reliever/ closer? And how much learning curve is yet to come for each of these guys to reach their best level? Can anyone rise to a high end star/ superstar (Ace) level? Or do we end up with five #3 starters (not great, not terrible)? What is the timing of all of this? I think we can put together some great pitching here... but it's also the grayest area of the team, because... it's pitchers. (C) I think there are other contributors coming up who can fill out the team. Maybe no high end talent, but secondary guys who can be starters (I believe in Wenceel Perez still, and Dillon Dingler, etc...), the Matt Joyce's and Jason Thompson's and Lance Parrish's that are still needed to fill out a team. How many guys made their debut this year? 6? 7? 8? I've completely lost count... but a lot. We'll see who sticks out of that group. There will be more coming in 2023, 2024, and 2025. Again, who sticks? This is also a gray area, but again, it's coming. And NOT in a Winter Is Coming type of way.

That's just my POV. I can't give a CLEAR answer on the "when" question because I'm not Nostradamus, and these are MLB prospects after all... But it also looks to me like we will be sorting through all these new kids coming up like, right now. Which is what we have already been doing this year with all these kids. Due to the injuries and such. But there are plenty more "on the cusp" guys trying to break through to MLB, and should be able to do so in the next 3 years. AA or higher, right now, and either flourishing or at least showing they still have a chance to make it all the way: Kerry Carpenter (Cody Ross?), Wenceel Perez, Wilmer Flores, Reese Olson, Kreidler is back in AAA but is struggling compared to last year's really nice year in AAA although I never thought of him as more than a utility guy or sometimes starter (in a pinch) but.. still need a couple guys like him as well, Dillon Dingler, Parker Meadows, Chance Kirby, Austin Bergner...

Also, Navigato and Lipcius are raking this year and have reached the higher levels... and may prove to be nothing more than AAAA guys or bench guys in MLB, at best... but a team needs a few of those guys too..

But I think we will see most of those guys on that short list just above, in MLB, over the next 2 years.

 

On the flipside: Just can NOT seem to solve AA pitching and therefore high degree possibility of flopping out (and was "supposed" to have a high hit tool when drafted): Daniel Cabrera.

But then again, that was Parker Meadows last year, and he "fixed" something in his swing and has made major improvements this year, in AA. He was Mendoza/ Rey Rivera before this... now maybe he has a chance? Again, who knows, but was most definitely flopping out prior to this year.

[1984Echoes]

12 minutes ago, buddha said:

six years ago you would have said the same thing youre saying today, only the list you created would have had different names....

No... sorry...

This system looks different to me than 6 years ago. It's not just the names.

You can call it faith if that's what you want to...

But the talent level, or even just the possibilities in that talent level, especially compared to 6 years ago... looks much more higher end than 6 years ago.

Really, I think there's no comparison.

[buddha]

53 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

No... sorry...

This system looks different to me than 6 years ago. It's not just the names.

You can call it faith if that's what you want to...

But the talent level, or even just the possibilities in that talent level, especially compared to 6 years ago... looks much more higher end than 6 years ago.

Really, I think there's no comparison.

why do you think the talent level is so much better?  

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

But I think this farm system's talent compared to 6 years ago, and the quantity of lottery tickets that are currently in the system compared to 6 years ago, means that the distribution still favors multiple MLB contributors making it to the team. Maybe not the highest end talent (since Tork & Greene & Mize & Manning already graduated), but the other contributors that are needed to fill out a team like Matt Joyce, Cody Ross, Dave Rozema, Jason Thompson, etc... Guys who might be traded, or kept, depending on the building of a competitive team, but still, guys that are able to play in MLB, even if they aren't the stars or superstars of the league. Still need those guys to fill out a team. And 1 or 2 may even surprise on the upside.

 

What if Torkelson and Mize are Jason Thompson and Dave Rozema?  

[microline133]

About 5-7 years ago Tigers fans were daydreaming about the future of the team with guys like Beau Burrows, Kevin Ziomek, and Spencer Turnbull I'm the rotation, an outfield that was some combination of Christin Stewart, Mike Gerber, Derek Hill, Steven Moya, and Jose Azocar, an infield that included JaCoby Jones and AJ Simcox, and a bullpen teeming with an abundance arms like Joe Jimenez, Drew VerHagen, Jairo Labourt, Jeff Ferrell, Luis Cessa, and Drew Smith. They were also dreaming of lottery tickets like Adam Ravenelle, Gerson Moreno, Arvicent Perez, Christhian Tortosa, Zac Shepherd, and Javier Betancourt. 

If you're able to look at that list through the lense of 2015-2017 knowledge, it's remarkably similar to the list you rattled off....Pacheco/Shepherd, Betancourt/Santana, Crouch/Perez, and on, and on, and on.

[1984Echoes]

8 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

What if Torkelson and Mize are Jason Thompson and Dave Rozema?  

Not good. Need better from those two.

Time will tell.

[oblong]

And I wonder if an internet in 1977 would have been talking about Trammell and Whitaker and Morris leading us to a WS one day?

[Tiger337]

8 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Not good. Need better from those two.

Time will tell.

Of course, they need better from those two.  The point is not all top prospects develop into stars.  

[1984Echoes]

8 minutes ago, microline133 said:

About 5-7 years ago Tigers fans were daydreaming about the future of the team with guys like Beau Burrows, Kevin Ziomek, and Spencer Turnbull I'm the rotation, an outfield that was some combination of Christin Stewart, Mike Gerber, Derek Hill, Steven Moya, and Jose Azocar, an infield that included JaCoby Jones and AJ Simcox, and a bullpen teeming with an abundance arms like Joe Jimenez, Drew VerHagen, Jairo Labourt, Jeff Ferrell, Luis Cessa, and Drew Smith. They were also dreaming of lottery tickets like Adam Ravenelle, Gerson Moreno, Arvicent Perez, Christhian Tortosa, Zac Shepherd, and Javier Betancourt. 

If you're able to look at that list through the lense of 2015-2017 knowledge, it's remarkably similar to the list you rattled off....Pacheco/Shepherd, Betancourt/Santana, Crouch/Perez, and on, and on, and on.

I'm pretty certain that you knew the flaws in those guys before even posting that. Stewart was always a crap glove, even when we drafted him. Moya was always a Mendoza candidate, even when we drafted him. Burrows was a decent arm, but no world beater. Kevin Ziomek? Who had any expectations for him? Did I/ Maybe... but I barely remember him. Gerber was a Cody Ross type (hopeful) so yes, maybe some hope there... I remember two of those BP hopefuls, but don't ever remember thinking much of any of those other guys.

This is a serious question, to Buddha as well: I think the talent level in today's system is higher than in 2016 (I don't understand your "why" question Buddha... because... I do believe it's higher?) so I would like to turn this question around: Why do you think the talent in today's system is NOT higher?

Or put another way: Do you SERIOUSLY (sorry for the point of emphasis) believe that this list (not in any order): Dillon Dingler, Josh Crouch, Peyton Graham, Jace Jung, Wenceel Perez, Gage Workman, Christian Santana, Manuel Sequera, Trei Cruz, Colten Keith, Adinso Reyes, Izaac Pacheco, Jose De La Cruz, Parker Meadows, Roberto Campos, Kerry Carpenter, Reese Olson, Jackson Jobe, Wilmer Flores, Ty Madden, Dylan Smith, Brant Hurter, Eddy Felix, Donal Montas, Juan Ruiz.

Is no better than this list: Michael Fulmer, Christin Stewart, Beau Burrows, JaCoby Jones, Kevin Ziomek, Joe Jimenez, Spencer Turnbull, Mike Gerber, Steve Moya, Zach Shepherd, Derek Hill, Tyler Alexander, Wynton Bernard, Dixon Machado, Adam Ravenelle, Paul Voelker, Drew Smith, Cam Gibson, Matt Hall, Josh Turley, Jose Azocar, Endrys Briceno, Grayson Greiner, Kade Scivicque, A.J. Simcox.

 

Seriously. (?)

Because I flat out disagree. 

But that's just me.

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, oblong said:

And I wonder if an internet in 1977 would have been talking about Trammell and Whitaker and Morris leading us to a WS one day?

Yes, they would have, but fans of other teams would have been doing the same thing.    

[1984Echoes]

Just now, Tiger337 said:

Of course, they need better from those two.  The point is not all top prospects develop into stars.  

Never have I said all our top prospects will develop into stars.

Nor that ALL prospects will even develop into MLB players.

[casimir]

7 minutes ago, oblong said:

And I wonder if an internet in 1977 would have been talking about Trammell and Whitaker and Morris leading us to a WS one day?

Yes, but probably more talk about the president and high gas prices.

[microline133]

5 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I'm pretty certain that you knew the flaws in those guys before even posting that. Stewart was always a crap glove, even when we drafted him. Moya was always a Mendoza candidate, even when we drafted him. Burrows was a decent arm, but no world beater. Kevin Ziomek? Who had any expectations for him? Did I/ Maybe... but I barely remember him. Gerber was a Cody Ross type (hopeful) so yes, maybe some hope there... I remember two of those BP hopefuls, but don't ever remember thinking much of any of those other guys.

This is a serious question, to Buddha as well: I think the talent level in today's system is higher than in 2016 (I don't understand your "why" question Buddha... because... I do believe it's higher?) so I would like to turn this question around: Why do you think the talent in today's system is NOT higher?

Or put another way: Do you SERIOUSLY (sorry for the point of emphasis) believe that this list (not in any order): Dillon Dingler, Josh Crouch, Peyton Graham, Jace Jung, Wenceel Perez, Gage Workman, Christian Santana, Manuel Sequera, Trei Cruz, Colten Keith, Adinso Reyes, Izaac Pacheco, Jose De La Cruz, Parker Meadows, Roberto Campos, Kerry Carpenter, Reese Olson, Jackson Jobe, Wilmer Flores, Ty Madden, Dylan Smith, Brant Hurter, Eddy Felix, Donal Montas, Juan Ruiz.

Is no better than this list: Michael Fulmer, Christin Stewart, Beau Burrows, JaCoby Jones, Kevin Ziomek, Joe Jimenez, Spencer Turnbull, Mike Gerber, Steve Moya, Zach Shepherd, Derek Hill, Tyler Alexander, Wynton Bernard, Dixon Machado, Adam Ravenelle, Paul Voelker, Drew Smith, Cam Gibson, Matt Hall, Josh Turley, Jose Azocar, Endrys Briceno, Grayson Greiner, Kade Scivicque, A.J. Simcox.

 

Seriously. (?)

Because I flat out disagree. 

But that's just me.

I'm not sure why I'm bothering with this, it's the equivalent of pissing into the wind and a perfect example of why I hate the current state of prospect analysis on the internet. Fans aren't educated on the nuances of player dev, tool hierarchy, etc., they are just bludgeoned with every highlight and how good this guy might be.

If you want to argue that the new list is incrementally better than the old one in some way, that's fine. I'd contend that incremental improvement doesn't actually constitute much in terms of actual system quality or depth. Incremental gains on lists like this aren't where you make your hay....you need big gains that develop guys from these lists toward the higher end talent lists I mentioned earlier. 

With hindsight as your guide, you can poke holes in all those guys I listed. I can poke similar holes in each of the guys you list....

Dingler....framing/receiving/game calling lag and may not catch up, lots of swing and miss, hints of durability issues. Crouch....solid glove, likely won't get to power at higher levels because of hit tool deficiency. Saquera/Santana/Wenceel....meet Javier Betancourt, Domingo Leyba, Francisco Martinez, and so on. Jung....looks like he will hit but the glove is suspect, doesn't sound terribly different from Stewart immediately after the draft. I can keep going here.

Look, I certainly believe some of these guys are good talents with potential and I would likely shove some of them in my own rankings, but they are all flawed in significant ways that prevent them from being guys you start counting on or penciling into future rosters. A simple (not so simple) thing like a hit tool deficiency, need to recognize spin better, lack of defensive chops, poor fastball command, etc., are all more than enough to derail a guy well before Detroit, and little things like that exist in every one of those guys, just like the did the guys on the older list. The Tigers flat out lack guys that reasonably project to everyday roles in the big leagues....to get them, they need guys with tools to somehow overcome significant flaws in their game and they need that to happen with multiple players. That is exceptionally unlikely to happen.

[1984Echoes]

5 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I'm pretty certain that you knew the flaws in those guys before even posting that. Stewart was always a crap glove, even when we drafted him. Moya was always a Mendoza candidate, even when we drafted him. Burrows was a decent arm, but no world beater. Kevin Ziomek? Who had any expectations for him? Did I/ Maybe... but I barely remember him. Gerber was a Cody Ross type (hopeful) so yes, maybe some hope there... I remember two of those BP hopefuls, but don't ever remember thinking much of any of those other guys.

This is a serious question, to Buddha as well: I think the talent level in today's system is higher than in 2016 (I don't understand your "why" question Buddha... because... I do believe it's higher?) so I would like to turn this question around: Why do you think the talent in today's system is NOT higher?

Or put another way: Do you SERIOUSLY (sorry for the point of emphasis) believe that this list (not in any order): Dillon Dingler, Josh Crouch, Peyton Graham, Jace Jung, Wenceel Perez, Gage Workman, Christian Santana, Manuel Sequera, Trei Cruz, Colten Keith, Adinso Reyes, Izaac Pacheco, Jose De La Cruz, Parker Meadows, Roberto Campos, Kerry Carpenter, Reese Olson, Jackson Jobe, Wilmer Flores, Ty Madden, Dylan Smith, Brant Hurter, Eddy Felix, Donal Montas, Juan Ruiz.

Is no better than this list: Michael Fulmer, Christin Stewart, Beau Burrows, JaCoby Jones, Kevin Ziomek, Joe Jimenez, Spencer Turnbull, Mike Gerber, Steve Moya, Zach Shepherd, Derek Hill, Tyler Alexander, Wynton Bernard, Dixon Machado, Adam Ravenelle, Paul Voelker, Drew Smith, Cam Gibson, Matt Hall, Josh Turley, Jose Azocar, Endrys Briceno, Grayson Greiner, Kade Scivicque, A.J. Simcox.

 

Seriously. (?)

Because I flat out disagree. 

But that's just me.

Case in point (or just for a couple examples, that might help explain my belief we're better to buddha):

I think Olson, Flores, Madden and especially Jobe, are all as high, or higher, than Fulmer or Burrows. (Olson probably around Burrows and the other 3 I believe to be better than Fulmer. Fulmer was not some monster in the minors... he had a 1.25 WHIP, K'd less than 9 per 9 innings, but looked like an above average pitcher. I think Madden is maybe on that level, and Jobe (potential) and Flores looks much better than Fulmer (performance wise).

Ziomek? By 2016 he had already crapped out (was that an injury) in A+ so why is he even in the discussion? I don't see a top 25 in 2016 having a guy who has already DOA'd... although maybe I'm thinking mid-season versus pre-season? There are no other pitchers that anyone thought that much of in 2016, as a potential starter. A few reliever types... Jimenez at the top of the list of course...

I also see a bunch of 2016 candidates who had zero chance of making it to MLB, either at the time of the draft, or shortly thereafter: Steve Moya (he was a Mendoza candidate WHEN we drafted him, he had a crap hit tool and the team knew it), Cam Gibson, Josh Turley, Jose Azocar (he was a lottery ticket with speed, I don't ever remember having any kind of expectations for him...), Kade Scivicque? Drew Smith? Wynton Bernard? Actual expectations for these guys? I don't remember having any.

Christin Stewart was our #2 prospect? And you can't find one better prospect than him on our 2022 list? Seriously? Because I see 13 guys on our 2022 list that I like a whole lot more than Christin Stewart. And Beau Burrows. And Jacoby Jones. Etc., etc., etc.

[1984Echoes]

8 minutes ago, microline133 said:

I'm not sure why I'm bothering with this, it's the equivalent of pissing into the wind and a perfect example of why I hate the current state of prospect analysis on the internet. Fans aren't educated on the nuances of player dev, tool hierarchy, etc., they are just bludgeoned with every highlight and how good this guy might be.

If you want to argue that the new list is incrementally better than the old one in some way, that's fine. I'd contend that incremental improvement doesn't actually constitute much in terms of actual system quality or depth. Incremental gains on lists like this aren't where you make your hay....you need big gains that develop guys from these lists toward the higher end talent lists I mentioned earlier. 

With hindsight as your guide, you can poke holes in all those guys I listed. I can poke similar holes in each of the guys you list....

Dingler....framing/receiving/game calling lag and may not catch up, lots of swing and miss, hints of durability issues. Crouch....solid glove, likely won't get to power at higher levels because of hit tool deficiency. Saquera/Santana/Wenceel....meet Javier Betancourt, Domingo Leyba, Francisco Martinez, and so on. Jung....looks like he will hit but the glove is suspect, doesn't sound terribly different from Stewart immediately after the draft. I can keep going here.

Look, I certainly believe some of these guys are good talents with potential and I would likely shove some of them in my own rankings, but they are all flawed in significant ways that prevent them from being guys you start counting on or penciling into future rosters. A simple (not so simple) thing like a hit tool deficiency, need to recognize spin better, lack of defensive chops, poor fastball command, etc., are all more than enough to derail a guy well before Detroit, and little things like that exist in every one of those guys, just like the did the guys on the older list. The Tigers flat out lack guys that reasonably project to everyday roles in the big leagues....to get them, they need guys with tools to somehow overcome significant flaws in their game and they need that to happen with multiple players. That is exceptionally unlikely to happen.

That's fine.

Thank you for the effort!

Seriously!

And maybe it's just me but, I think there are a lot less flaws in the 2022 list than in the 2016 list; I recognize all the growth issues that the current list of guys have to get past, and that they have exactly the flaws that you have pointed out... you've probably scouted them and know EXACTLY what all of their flaws are... I just think that there is more than just a slight incremental improvement in the quality of prospects (or maybe I mean quantity/ depth?) in 2022 than in 2016.

But that's just me.

[SoCalTiger]

I do not have any skill as a talent evaluates apart from watching baseball for 55 years. Keeps me young 🙂. But I do see trends around the league and what I notice is many teams that draft lower than us continually produce MLB regular contributors and stars but since the Tram-Lou-etc era we do not. 

i hope 84 is right about this group. It’s why we watch and the optimism is needed at this juncture because the varsity team looks dreadful. 
 

At the same time Micros certified knowledge serves to minimize angst. 
 

Both of which combine to bring me to my aged old wish. Just give us a competitive team year in and year out so most of the summer we are “in the hunt”. Maybe no trophies but a pulse daily. A reason to watch. These past seven years have been inexcusable to me and I hope Chris Illitch and Al Avila are embarrassed and ashamed. They wouldn’t even dare mention their own names during yesterday’s Lou ceremony. What does that say? It says get the F out of town you bumbling fools and Disgenuous caretakers of our treasured institution. You are frauds and an insult to the spirit of the game. 

[oblong]

38 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Yes, they would have, but fans of other teams would have been doing the same thing.    

I think they would have suggested we trade them for someone like Sparky Lyle.  Or hyping the guys at AAA.  

[buddha]

39 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I'm pretty certain that you knew the flaws in those guys before even posting that. Stewart was always a crap glove, even when we drafted him. Moya was always a Mendoza candidate, even when we drafted him. Burrows was a decent arm, but no world beater. Kevin Ziomek? Who had any expectations for him? Did I/ Maybe... but I barely remember him. Gerber was a Cody Ross type (hopeful) so yes, maybe some hope there... I remember two of those BP hopefuls, but don't ever remember thinking much of any of those other guys.

This is a serious question, to Buddha as well: I think the talent level in today's system is higher than in 2016 (I don't understand your "why" question Buddha... because... I do believe it's higher?) so I would like to turn this question around: Why do you think the talent in today's system is NOT higher?

Or put another way: Do you SERIOUSLY (sorry for the point of emphasis) believe that this list (not in any order): Dillon Dingler, Josh Crouch, Peyton Graham, Jace Jung, Wenceel Perez, Gage Workman, Christian Santana, Manuel Sequera, Trei Cruz, Colten Keith, Adinso Reyes, Izaac Pacheco, Jose De La Cruz, Parker Meadows, Roberto Campos, Kerry Carpenter, Reese Olson, Jackson Jobe, Wilmer Flores, Ty Madden, Dylan Smith, Brant Hurter, Eddy Felix, Donal Montas, Juan Ruiz.

Is no better than this list: Michael Fulmer, Christin Stewart, Beau Burrows, JaCoby Jones, Kevin Ziomek, Joe Jimenez, Spencer Turnbull, Mike Gerber, Steve Moya, Zach Shepherd, Derek Hill, Tyler Alexander, Wynton Bernard, Dixon Machado, Adam Ravenelle, Paul Voelker, Drew Smith, Cam Gibson, Matt Hall, Josh Turley, Jose Azocar, Endrys Briceno, Grayson Greiner, Kade Scivicque, A.J. Simcox.

 

Seriously. (?)

Because I flat out disagree. 

But that's just me.

but you dont have any reason why you think its better other than you want to think its better.

there is only one person on this site that knows anything about prospects and that's micro.  the rest of just look at box scores and twitter highlights.

and that's great.  were fans.  but we dont know.  i trust the people who do this for a living and their opinions on the tigers' players outside of the top 5 picks is that they are flawed and not likely to make it.

you can say that about most franchises too.  we just focus on detroit.

its ok to have hope, but realize that's what it is: hope.  that's all i have too.  but i'm 50 and a lions fan so all my hope has been crushed into bitter disappointment that i transfer to every franchise other than the red wings.  lol.