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Al Avila: “You’ve got to go full bore from Day 1"


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1 minute ago, buddha said:

but you dont have any reason why you think its better other than you want to think its better.

there is only one person on this site that knows anything about prospects and that's micro.  the rest of just look at box scores and twitter highlights.

and that's great.  were fans.  but we dont know.  i trust the people who do this for a living and their opinions on the tigers' players outside of the top 5 picks is that they are flawed and not likely to make it.

you can say that about most franchises too.  we just focus on detroit.

its ok to have hope, but realize that's what it is: hope.  that's all i have too.  but i'm 50 and a lions fan so all my hope has been crushed into bitter disappointment that i transfer to every franchise other than the red wings.  lol.

True but the Detroit Baseball Club has always had professional scouts also and how have they done  lately ?

 

 

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15 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

That's fine.

Thank you for the effort!

Seriously!

And maybe it's just me but, I think there are a lot less flaws in the 2022 list than in the 2016 list; I recognize all the growth issues that the current list of guys have to get past, and that they have exactly the flaws that you have pointed out... you've probably scouted them and know EXACTLY what all of their flaws are... I just think that there is more than just a slight incremental improvement in the quality of prospects (or maybe I mean quantity/ depth?) in 2022 than in 2016.

But that's just me.

PS: Mark, I don't know if you remember this but...

You and I have had these conversations for about 15 years or so...

I've been schooled.

I know that.

So thank you, and...

(I'm still thinking this year's prospect list is a bit higher than "slight improvement" over previous iterations...)

HAH!!!

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25 minutes ago, buddha said:

but you dont have any reason why you think its better other than you want to think its better.

there is only one person on this site that knows anything about prospects and that's micro.  the rest of just look at box scores and twitter highlights.

and that's great.  were fans.  but we dont know.  i trust the people who do this for a living and their opinions on the tigers' players outside of the top 5 picks is that they are flawed and not likely to make it.

you can say that about most franchises too.  we just focus on detroit.

its ok to have hope, but realize that's what it is: hope.  that's all i have too.  but i'm 50 and a lions fan so all my hope has been crushed into bitter disappointment that i transfer to every franchise other than the red wings.  lol.

I still contend that it's not just hope or "thinking". It's not.

There is no possible way that in 2016, with Christin "mother-trucking CRAP fielder, DH-Only, with huge flaws in his swing but has some power" Stewart the #2 prospect (number TWO!!!!); it is a comparable list to 2022. I mean, seriously? You can't find any prospects in 2022 that you like better than Christin MF'in (excuse the language... but I really didn't like Christin Stewart as a prospect at all) Stewart?

Seriously?

Because I stated this: "Christin Stewart was our #2 prospect? And you can't find one better prospect than him on our 2022 list? Seriously? Because I see 13 guys on our 2022 list that I like a whole lot more than Christin Stewart. And Beau Burrows. And Jacoby Jones..."

If you can't find a few guys as better prospects than Christin Stewart on our 2022 list... then I don't think the fault, or Blind Faith, or my "thinking" is the flaw. It's not me at this point.

Prove me wrong.

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1 hour ago, SoCalTiger said:

True but the Detroit Baseball Club has always had professional scouts also and how have they done  lately ?

 

 

Exactly what worries me. If an org can’t identify good talent, what confidence can we have that there aren’t players in the org with more potential than they recognize and so they don’t get the focus they should have?

Edited by gehringer_2
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To expand upon this...

I mean GEEZ, seriously! I'm nearly falling out of my chair just LOOKING at this!!! This is absolutely crazy and incedulous to me...

Our top 5 in 2016 were:

Michael Fulmer - Decent prospect, but not a high end one. 1.25 WHIP in the minors, less than 9 K's per 9.. and he was our Number ONE prospect?!?!?!

Christin MT(rucking) Stewart, as number TWO? No glove. DH Only. Huge holes in his swing. But has some power. WHEN we drafted him. Our number TWO prospect in 2016?

Beau Burrows, decent starter prospect. But NEVER much more than that, and not any different than Fulmer. As our number THREE prospect in 2016.

JACOBY JONES was our number FOUR prospect in 2016. Athletic, might make it to MLB, has some speed but also some holes in his swing. But NEVER expected to amount to any kind of world-beater.

Those were our TOP FOUR prospects in 2016. And somehow, you guys are trying to HORSESHIT me into thinking that we don't have better prospects today than in 2016???

I'm sorry, but I'm LMFAO right now.

No, the problem is not me. I think you guys are just straight up blind, or are being obtuse. There is no possible way the prospects in our system RIGHT NOW aren't WORLDS BETTER than what we had in 2016. I think you guys are seriously just trying to HORSESHIT me right now.

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In 2027 you can post a thread about how much better those prospects are than the prospects of 2021-2022 that eventually busted out.

Of course those guys look awful now because none of them did much in the majors.  If they had all turned out to be at least average MLB players, you would think differently.

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Prospects from our pre-season 2022 prospects (I don't care where they were ranked) who have made it to MLB in 2022:

Tork, Greene, Brieske, Wentz, Clemens, Faedo, Elvin Rodriguez. Did I miss anyone? Maybe Carpenter in September? maybe not.. if so..

2023 Prospects I expect to see break into MLB sometime in 2023, even if it's just a cup:

Wenceel Perez, Dillon Dingler, Parker Meadows, Reese Olson, Ryan Kreidler, Kerry Carpenter (if not this year), maybe Wilmer Flores too...

Prospects who have ALREADY made in to MLB in the past couple of years: 

 

2019 Jake Rogers & Tyler Alexander & Greg Soto, 2018 Spencer Turnbull, 2017 Joe Jimenez, 2020 Rookies: Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Daz Cameron, Rony Garcia, 2021 Rookies: Matt Manning, Akil Baddoo, Alex Lange, Jason Foley

 

When was the last time our farm system was producing this much?

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Our farm system is probably in better shape than it was in during its darkest times but that doesn't mean it's in good shape either, atleast relative to the rest of the league.

Yeah we may have 10 -12 "lottery ticket" type guys with high upside but so does the vast majority of other teams as well. 

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On 8/7/2022 at 1:29 PM, 1984Echoes said:

Because I stated this: "Christin Stewart was our #2 prospect? And you can't find one better prospect than him on our 2022 list? Seriously? Because I see 13 guys on our 2022 list that I like a whole lot more than Christin Stewart. And Beau Burrows. And Jacoby Jones..."

 

For what it's worth, Stewart made some top 100 prospect lists.    

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On 8/7/2022 at 2:29 PM, 1984Echoes said:

...Those were our TOP FOUR prospects in 2016. And somehow, you guys are trying to HORSESHIT me into thinking that we don't have better prospects today than in 2016???

 

I'm sorry, but I'm LMFAO right now.

No, the problem is not me. I think you guys are just straight up blind, or are being obtuse. There is no possible way the prospects in our system RIGHT NOW aren't WORLDS BETTER than what we had in 2016. I think you guys are seriously just trying to HORSESHIT me right now.

IMHO I believe if the Tigers were in first place or say maybe even 5 games out from a wildcard right now many fans/posters would think our 'prospects' are better simply because there would not be as much of the 'disappointed feeling for this season' carry-over and that perhaps that in and of itself might be clouding a bit of the overall team/organization perspective.

I do agree we may have more overall depth to the farm (and better potential MLB players) but we need to start developing players out of this system - or it is not going to matter who we have as a GM, Mgr, trade for, sign as a FA, etc. in order to contend.

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On 8/7/2022 at 1:29 PM, 1984Echoes said:

I still contend that it's not just hope or "thinking". It's not.

There is no possible way that in 2016, with Christin "mother-trucking CRAP fielder, DH-Only, with huge flaws in his swing but has some power" Stewart the #2 prospect (number TWO!!!!); it is a comparable list to 2022. I mean, seriously? You can't find any prospects in 2022 that you like better than Christin MF'in (excuse the language... but I really didn't like Christin Stewart as a prospect at all) Stewart?

Seriously?

Because I stated this: "Christin Stewart was our #2 prospect? And you can't find one better prospect than him on our 2022 list? Seriously? Because I see 13 guys on our 2022 list that I like a whole lot more than Christin Stewart. And Beau Burrows. And Jacoby Jones..."

If you can't find a few guys as better prospects than Christin Stewart on our 2022 list... then I don't think the fault, or Blind Faith, or my "thinking" is the flaw. It's not me at this point.

Prove me wrong.

I believe the point isn't that Stewart is good, it's that he also mashed in the minors, just like a bunch of guys we have now who also have little major league future. 

I'd like to think Carpenter or Kriedler, or Dingler will hit in the majors, but to be blunt none of them are very good or interesting prospects at this point. 

Edited by pyrotigers
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On 8/7/2022 at 2:38 PM, 1984Echoes said:

Prospects from our pre-season 2022 prospects (I don't care where they were ranked) who have made it to MLB in 2022:

Tork, Greene, Brieske, Wentz, Clemens, Faedo, Elvin Rodriguez. Did I miss anyone? Maybe Carpenter in September? maybe not.. if so..

2023 Prospects I expect to see break into MLB sometime in 2023, even if it's just a cup:

Wenceel Perez, Dillon Dingler, Parker Meadows, Reese Olson, Ryan Kreidler, Kerry Carpenter (if not this year), maybe Wilmer Flores too...

Prospects who have ALREADY made in to MLB in the past couple of years: 

 

2019 Jake Rogers & Tyler Alexander & Greg Soto, 2018 Spencer Turnbull, 2017 Joe Jimenez, 2020 Rookies: Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Daz Cameron, Rony Garcia, 2021 Rookies: Matt Manning, Akil Baddoo, Alex Lange, Jason Foley

 

When was the last time our farm system was producing this much?

Out if this list who has proven that they're likely to have more long term value than Stewart? Skubal alone 

(I expect Greene and Tork to join him next season, but most of these guys stink and wouldn't have made it to mlb if we had a better roster. I'm not going to give the org props for using 30 pitchers this year, that's a bad thing. 

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6 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Our farm system is probably in better shape than it was in during its darkest times but that doesn't mean it's in good shape either, atleast relative to the rest of the league.

Well said.  I would also throw in that better now than before also doesn’t mean that it’s in good shape considering where they’ve been drafting the last several drafts.

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4 hours ago, pyrotigers said:

I believe the point isn't that Stewart is good, it's that he also mashed in the minors, j

that's a bit revisionist. Stewart's best BA at AAA was 260, so having him come up and not be able to break 220 shouldn't have been a big surprise. He hit for good power in the minors, but was never the kind of hitter in the minors that would make you think he would be a good hitter in the majors - you could only hope at best he would be a Rob Deer type, low OBP, maybe good power, but he wasn't even that.

Edited by gehringer_2
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On 8/7/2022 at 2:38 PM, 1984Echoes said:

When was the last time our farm system was producing this much?

A lot of those guys only made it to MLB because of injuries or pure ineptitude by the major league roster.  In a more competent organization, those guys never make it to the majors.  Many are there by necessity.  

So why yes, they came up and played on the Tigers, but what did they accomplish while they were on the roster, and what is their long term outlook?  I prefer quality over quantity.

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9 hours ago, gkelly said:

A lot of those guys only made it to MLB because of injuries or pure ineptitude by the major league roster.  In a more competent organization, those guys never make it to the majors.  Many are there by necessity.  

So why yes, they came up and played on the Tigers, but what did they accomplish while they were on the roster, and what is their long term outlook?  I prefer quality over quantity.

Yep, I couldn't care less how many AAAA guys make the big club cause of how bad our roster is, all that matters is how they produce up here and if they help you win games and so far we've had very few guys you can say have done that. 

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3 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Yep, I couldn't care less how many AAAA guys make the big club cause of how bad our roster is, all that matters is how they produce up here and if they help you win games and so far we've had very few guys you can say have done that. 

Small sample size.

We don't know yet who is going to thrive versus get reduced roles (middle relievers or bench) versus sink back into AAAA where they belong.

It's going to take a few years to hash that all out between the guys who have already made it up, even if it was in an emergency situation, and the guys that are still making their way up the ladder.

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