Motor City Sonics Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 49 minutes ago, buddha said: people got really excited when they signed a shortstop who will hit 240/310/450 and traded for a competent corner outfielder. like you said, expectations were really high based on assumptions that mize/skubal/manning would all be great and greene/tork would be competing for rookie of the year. rookies struggle, even really talented ones. it takes a long time to build an organization if youre not going to spend a bunch of money like old man illitch did. all this said: its still really early in the season. they have time to get healthy and turn it around. I didn't have high expectations. .500 was a reasonable goal, but this team looks exactly like last April's team. I did expect more than that... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 I dont know if this is the case with all Detroit sports teams (admittedly I'm sort of baseball first at this point), but in the case of the Tigers, what frustrates me is that when things aren't going well, and particularly when it is not driven by all phases of their game, it tends to overpower any aspects of their game that maybe aren't going poorly or actually going well. On the whole, the pitching staff has held up well in spite of injuries. Losing Mize and Manning was a setback, but this franchise isn't the only one dealing with pitching injuries in this league. And there's more depth in that department than there has been in past years. The bullpen, meanwhile, has actually been one of the better units in the American League, and there's reason to believe it's not a complete fluke. The reason that all matters is that it demonstrates that this isn't Cincinnati or Baltimore; there is reason to believe that when the hitting comes around (and it will), they will win a decent amount of ballgames. The situation sucks, everyone wishes that there wasn't yet another massive slump to start the season. But they will have opportunities to get going. The Tigers org isn't perfect and there is plenty to complain about. Particularly with position player depth. But the picture isn't totally negative. It ain't perfect, they likely aren't contending for a playoff spot this year, but there is reason to believe that this team is better than last and can push for .500. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 I tend to still believe in the old Sparky axiom that you really can’t get a feel for your team until your 40 games in. This was optimistically a 500 team depending on injuries. I think the short Spring training and effects from the lock out should be weighed in as well. And yes other teams had the same issues. Not pushing the panic button until Mid May Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalTiger Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 My prediction of Kriedler being a starter by season’s end has gone up in flames. I don’t think he will play another game this year. I am reading it’s a very bad break. Worst case is the description. And it’s his right hand. After being Tiger player of the year for two straight seasons Candelerio has disappeared. At least we didn’t extend him first. Still need a third baseman it seems that the expectations of contention has been to heavy a burden for many players. Maybe it’s easier playing for a losing team. Less pressure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 its also been really cold. the hitting may pick up as the weather gets warmer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Christian Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 1 minute ago, buddha said: its also been really cold. the hitting may pick up as the weather gets warmer. That's what I'm hoping!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 23 minutes ago, buddha said: its also been really cold. the hitting may pick up as the weather gets warmer. has the Tiger side of the field been colder for some reason? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 (edited) 26 minutes ago, buddha said: its also been really cold. the hitting may pick up as the weather gets warmer. Tigers have also not been blessed schedule wise so far.... Not making excuses for them, particularly with hitting and defense people should expect better, but to an extent all of this stuff (weather, schedule, injuries, etc.) may at least provide an explanation for some of the struggles. Edited April 30, 2022 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 16 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: has the Tiger side of the field been colder for some reason? it may also explain why the tigers' pitching has done well so far... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 (edited) 42 minutes ago, buddha said: it may also explain why the tigers' pitching has done well so far... Probably to an extent. Things like not giving up a bunch of walks probably helps too. Edited April 30, 2022 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 My guess is Option C... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeattleMike Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 2 hours ago, SoCalTiger said: My prediction of Kriedler being a starter by season’s end has gone up in flames. I don’t think he will play another game this year. I am reading it’s a very bad break. Worst case is the description. And it’s his right hand. After being Tiger player of the year for two straight seasons Candelerio has disappeared. At least we didn’t extend him first. Still need a third baseman it seems that the expectations of contention has been to heavy a burden for many players. Maybe it’s easier playing for a losing team. Less pressure. Are you really writing Candy off after three weeks? I trust you have been watching baseball for a while and know that slumps like this happen to several good hitters every year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeattleMike Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 1 hour ago, mtutiger said: Tigers have also not been blessed schedule wise so far.... Not making excuses for them, particularly with hitting and defense people should expect better, but to an extent all of this stuff (weather, schedule, injuries, etc.) may at least provide an explanation for some of the struggles. I don't know how accurate team DefEff stats are, but the Tigers are 8th in the MLB in defense, according to BRef's DefEff rating. I recall this rating measures balls put into play (not HRs) that are turned into outs, which seems like a pretty decent way of evaluating the effectiveness of a team's defense. By this metric the Tigers are in the top 25%. I really believe the slow start is almost entirely due to the putrid slugging percentage, which is second to last in MLB. The Tigers are dead last in MLB in HRs. Every hitter in the lineup with a track record is off his HR pace, even when one factors in the reduction in HRs so far this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBFCFM Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 25 minutes ago, SeattleMike said: I don't know how accurate team DefEff stats are, but the Tigers are 8th in the MLB in defense, according to BRef's DefEff rating. I recall this rating measures balls put into play (not HRs) that are turned into outs, which seems like a pretty decent way of evaluating the effectiveness of a team's defense. By this metric the Tigers are in the top 25%. I really believe the slow start is almost entirely due to the putrid slugging percentage, which is second to last in MLB. The Tigers are dead last in MLB in HRs. Every hitter in the lineup with a track record is off his HR pace, even when one factors in the reduction in HRs so far this year. According to Baseball Savant, the team is -6 Outs Below Average Schoop is the best in baseball +5 and H. Castro (-6) is the worst. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2022&endYear=2022&split=no&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=&roles=&viz=hide According to FanGraphs, the Tigers are -5 runs below average which is 26th. It's all small sample sizes of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigeraholic1 Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 19 minutes ago, BBFCFM said: Baseball man....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 (edited) I hate playing the "what-if" game, but at least on eye test, the offense is the biggest offender so far. My guess is that they would have at least a couple more wins if they were performing at league average. Even the game Tuesday that they threw away defensively in Minnesota, they had opportunities to score earlier on that they didn't cash in. They havent hit many homers or even had extra base hits with any sort of consistency. Their last extra base hit was a double by Robbie Grossman on Wednesday night (in garbage time). It's just not a recipe for success... and no amount of good pitching or even good defense can win you a lot of games with the kind of offense they are playing right now. Even the Dodgers pitching staff would struggle with it. Edited April 30, 2022 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: According to Baseball Savant, the team is -6 Outs Below Average Schoop is the best in baseball +5 and H. Castro (-6) is the worst. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2022&endYear=2022&split=no&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=&roles=&viz=hide According to FanGraphs, the Tigers are -5 runs below average which is 26th. It's all small sample sizes of course. It does look to me that Harold's fielding, whatever it was, has fallen off a cliff. I do not think he is an asset. I know they don't want to lose him which I think is misdirected -it's time. Harold is one of those guys who can help a bad team, but not a good one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: It does look to me that Harold's fielding, whatever it was, has fallen off a cliff. I do not think he is an asset. I know they don't want to lose him which I think is misdirected -it's time. Harold is one of those guys who can help a bad team, but not a good one. Is there anyone internally who can fill that void at this point? Defensively, Short probably can cover all the positions (except maybe 1st, which Miggy can cover), but despite the good performance in Toledo with the bat, is the expected drop off there worth it? Part of me wants to say 'yes', but I remember when folks wanted to run him out of town last year when every plate appearance was a K or a flyout. Edited April 30, 2022 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeattleMike Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: According to Baseball Savant, the team is -6 Outs Below Average Schoop is the best in baseball +5 and H. Castro (-6) is the worst. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2022&endYear=2022&split=no&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=&roles=&viz=hide According to FanGraphs, the Tigers are -5 runs below average which is 26th. It's all small sample sizes of course. How can there be so much variance between DER and these other metrics? I understand DER has flaws: contact type, ballpark dimensions, who is getting the opportunities, and so forth. But I would think it provides a pretty accurate assessment of whether the defense is doing its job: y turning balls in play into outs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, SeattleMike said: How can there be so much variance between DER and these other metrics? I understand DER has flaws: contact type, ballpark dimensions, who is getting the opportunities, and so forth. But I would think it provides a pretty accurate assessment of whether the defense is doing its job: y turning balls in play into outs. I don't think any defensive statistic is really that accurate at this point in the season. A simple one like DER might more sense at this point, but I'd like to see what it looks like a little later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 (edited) 50 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Is there anyone internally who can fill that void at this point? Defensively, Short probably can cover all the positions (except maybe 1st, which Miggy can cover), but despite the good performance in Toledo with the bat, is the expected drop off there worth it? Part of me wants to say 'yes', but I remember when folks wanted to run him out of town last year when every plate appearance was a K or a flyout. You can't play a SS who can't field. You just can't. Well maybe at 900 OPS you might try, but Harold isn't close to that guy. Maybe with Baez back we will won't see him at SS much going forward but if they give Candy off days I don't think I want him at 3rd either - so yes I would prefer Short. And actually, I have been assuming Harold is of out of options, but according to this he is not, so given that I would swap him with Short like - yesterday. https://www.blessyouboys.com/2022/4/12/23019819/detroit-tigers-2022-roster-options-service-time-and-payroll Edited April 30, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 11 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: You can't play a SS who can't field. You just can't. Well maybe at 900 OPS you might try, but Harold isn't close to that guy. Maybe with Baez back we will won't see him at SS much going forward but if they give Candy off days I don't think I want him at 3rd either - so yes I would prefer Short. And actually, I have been assuming Harold is of out of options, but according to this he is not, so given that I would swap him with Short like - yesterday. https://www.blessyouboys.com/2022/4/12/23019819/detroit-tigers-2022-roster-options-service-time-and-payroll Sure enough... I assumed the same thing. Now would definitely be a good time to change it up. Give Short another cup of coffee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalTiger Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 2 hours ago, SeattleMike said: Are you really writing Candy off after three weeks? I trust you have been watching baseball for a while and know that slumps like this happen to several good hitters every year. Not at all and I don’t think I suggested that in my post at least not intentionally. My meaning is Candy should start and play but not be extended contractually for big money. As for Kriedler I see him as our future second baseman. I think his bat is good enough for second but maybe not for third. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 5 hours ago, SoCalTiger said: My prediction of Kriedler being a starter by season’s end has gone up in flames. I don’t think he will play another game this year. I am reading it’s a very bad break. Worst case is the description. And it’s his right hand. After being Tiger player of the year for two straight seasons Candelerio has disappeared. At least we didn’t extend him first. Still need a third baseman it seems that the expectations of contention has been to heavy a burden for many players. Maybe it’s easier playing for a losing team. Less pressure. There will still be fans clamoring for his call up by the end of May. My favorite brand of ignorance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.