2022 DETROIT TIGERS REGULAR SEASON THREAD

[chasfh]

20 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Can't escape the feeling Haase lucked out here... his value decreases a lot without the bat, and outside of Game 1, he's been pretty absent with it.

The one kind of encouraging thing Haase does have going for him, at least regarding the bat, is his super low BABIP, which is .125. Since 2000, the lowest BABIP any player with at least 250 plate trips had was .171, which was Mark McGwire in 2001, which was the end of the line for him.

The problem with Haase is the same problem so many of his ilk have had this year: they've bought completely into the homer-or-bust game, and this year that just isn't working. If FanGraphs is to be believed, last year, Haase put 42% of his batted balls in the air, and 22% of them flew out of the ballpark. This year Haase is still hitting 42% of batted balls in the air, and only 7% have gone out of the park.

 

 

[gehringer_2]

15 minutes ago, chasfh said:

The one kind of encouraging thing Haase does have going for him, at least regarding the bat, is his super low BABIP, which is .125. Since 2000, the lowest BABIP any player with at least 250 plate trips had was .171, which was Mark McGwire in 2001, which was the end of the line for him.

The problem with Haase is the same problem so many of his ilk have had this year: they've bought completely into the homer-or-bust game, and this year that just isn't working. If FanGraphs is to be believed, last year, Haase put 42% of his batted balls in the air, and 22% of them flew out of the ballpark. This year Haase is still hitting 42% of batted balls in the air, and only 7% have gone out of the park.

 

 

Definitely a bit weird so far. Haase's number don't make much sense altogether. SSS warning apply all around but he's not striking out near his normal rate and his contact rate is way up. If those numbers persisted you might think he's backing off to try and make more contact and that he needs to get back to swinging away.  But while that may be the implication from the numbers, it doesn't look much like he's backed off his swing effort.

Edited May 2, 2022 by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

24 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Definitely a bit weird so far. Haase's number don't make much sense altogether. SSS warning apply all around but he's not striking out near his normal rate and his contact rate is way up. If those numbers persisted you might think he's backing off to try and make more contact and that he needs to get back to swinging away.  But while that may be the implication from the numbers, it doesn't look much like he's backed off his swing effort.

One difference between this year and last is diminished playing time. He was mostly an everyday player last year (when he was on the team, not on IL) now he isn't. 

Maybe that is making it more challenging to get out of the slump?

Edited May 2, 2022 by mtutiger

[casimir]

32 minutes ago, chasfh said:

The one kind of encouraging thing Haase does have going for him, at least regarding the bat, is his super low BABIP, which is .125. Since 2000, the lowest BABIP any player with at least 250 plate trips had was .171, which was Mark McGwire in 2001, which was the end of the line for him.

The problem with Haase is the same problem so many of his ilk have had this year: they've bought completely into the homer-or-bust game, and this year that just isn't working. If FanGraphs is to be believed, last year, Haase put 42% of his batted balls in the air, and 22% of them flew out of the ballpark. This year Haase is still hitting 42% of batted balls in the air, and only 7% have gone out of the park.

 

 

Candelario (.200) and Schoop (.175) also have pretty low BABIPs so far this season.  Clemens might be the shiny thing in Toledo, but it might be best to just grunt through these slumps and assume that they’ll rebound towards the mean.  We all know players go through boons and busts.  Either or both could be on the verge of flipping the switch.

And if the Tigers were to try Clemens or Short in place of Candelario or Schoop, what becomes of the latter?  Can’t send them down.  Just release them?  And then what if Clemens/Short isn’t the answer?  Who else is in the system to call up?

I don’t think there’s much else to do right now other than ride things out with the vets.  I suppose there’s an opportunity to demote a Castro and call up one of Clemens/Short and maybe go with some sort of 3 players for 2 defensive positions rotation.  That could be a way to go for now.

[casimir]

10 hours ago, Ancient Fan said:

You could be me, even the coaches and managers are younger that me.

Ha!  I just looked at the coaching staff.  Only Coolbaugh and Nieves are younger than me.  Now, I’m not that much older than Hinch, Paul, and Lombard, but older nonetheless.

[gehringer_2]

17 minutes ago, casimir said:

Candelario (.200) and Schoop (.175) also have pretty low BABIPs so far this season.  Clemens might be the shiny thing in Toledo, but it might be best to just grunt through these slumps and assume that they’ll rebound towards the mean.  We all know players go through boons and busts.  Either or both could be on the verge of flipping the switch.

And if the Tigers were to try Clemens or Short in place of Candelario or Schoop, what becomes of the latter?  Can’t send them down.  Just release them?  And then what if Clemens/Short isn’t the answer?  Who else is in the system to call up?

I don’t think there’s much else to do right now other than ride things out with the vets.  I suppose there’s an opportunity to demote a Castro and call up one of Clemens/Short and maybe go with some sort of 3 players for 2 defensive positions rotation.  That could be a way to go for now.

i'm less concerned about the slumping regulars than Harold's terrible glove so far. No matter where they put him in the field the ball is finding him and the Tigers are suffering for it. I just want another player playing where they are playing Harold. They are fixated on carrying so many pitchers that they insist on carrying only (supposedly) IF/OF guys like Willi and Harold. But WIlli can't really play the OF and Harold can't really play SS (or 1B). Give it up and just carry Zach Short AND Cameron till Reyes is back. 

Edited May 2, 2022 by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

24 minutes ago, casimir said:

Candelario (.200) and Schoop (.175) also have pretty low BABIPs so far this season.  Clemens might be the shiny thing in Toledo, but it might be best to just grunt through these slumps and assume that they’ll rebound towards the mean.  We all know players go through boons and busts.  Either or both could be on the verge of flipping the switch.

And if the Tigers were to try Clemens or Short in place of Candelario or Schoop, what becomes of the latter?  Can’t send them down.  Just release them?  And then what if Clemens/Short isn’t the answer?  Who else is in the system to call up?

I don’t think there’s much else to do right now other than ride things out with the vets.  I suppose there’s an opportunity to demote a Castro and call up one of Clemens/Short and maybe go with some sort of 3 players for 2 defensive positions rotation.  That could be a way to go for now.

I did a quick backing out on these guys if they had major league average BABIPs, which is about .283 now. Haase would be around .256/.341/.385 which, these days, would make him an above average hitter (which is .233/.308/.370). But when I back out the other two, I get .233/.300/.329 for Candelario, and .238/.274/.313 for Schoop, neither of which is any good. Baddoo would come in at .231/.286/.359, FWTW.

As for Clemens, who is killing it in Toledo, I did a MLE calculation for his numbers there, which is .299/.327/.557, and I'm coming up with .264/.281/.448, which would be a wRC+ of 103, which—well, shit, might as well call the "kid" up and finally give him his chance.

[Sports_Freak]

Hitting is down all across the league. Backup at SS, backup up in the OF, I don't care. It's all the injuries to our SP that could ruin this season. While our BP has saved us so far, putting too much pressure on them may expose them.

[bobrob2004]

1 hour ago, Sports_Freak said:

Hitting is down all across the league. Backup at SS, backup up in the OF, I don't care. It's all the injuries to our SP that could ruin this season. While our BP has saved us so far, putting too much pressure on them may expose them.

There's some evidence that the Tigers bullpen is over-performing.  The BABIP is only .244 (26th) and their LOB% is 79.1% (4th).  These are usually luck-based stats that are normally near league average by the end of the year (these numbers would be ranked 30th and 1st last year).  Their strikeout rate is 22.6%, which is below league average.  The main reason their ERA is so low is that they have only allowed 3 home runs all year, the lowest in baseball.  Meanwhile, they have a 41..6% fly ball rate, 5th highest in baseball.  They can't continue to allow that many fly balls with so little home runs.

Their xFIP is 3.91, almost 2 runs worse than their ERA of 1.97.  Are they better than last year?  So far, yes.  But my bet is that they will be near league average by the end of the season. 

[casimir]

12 hours ago, chasfh said:

I did a quick backing out on these guys if they had major league average BABIPs, which is about .283 now. Haase would be around .256/.341/.385 which, these days, would make him an above average hitter (which is .233/.308/.370). But when I back out the other two, I get .233/.300/.329 for Candelario, and .238/.274/.313 for Schoop, neither of which is any good. Baddoo would come in at .231/.286/.359, FWTW.

As for Clemens, who is killing it in Toledo, I did a MLE calculation for his numbers there, which is .299/.327/.557, and I'm coming up with .264/.281/.448, which would be a wRC+ of 103, which—well, shit, might as well call the "kid" up and finally give him his chance.

I was eyeballing where they have been as hitters in terms of career.  Probably not the most exact way to do it.  Either way, they should be better hitters than what they've been so far this young season.

I would think the early season league wide OPS should increase over time.  BSD had a stat earlier on this season, and I don't recall what hitting stat they used, but it was broken down by month, and there was a general ramp up throughout the season.  It was probably just proof of a general theory, but this put some actual numbers to it.

Just as a cheap barometer, OPS going back a few seasons have been .728 last year, .740 in 2020 (which maybe gets flagged with an asterisk), .758 in 2019, and .728 in 2018.  Now, if you want to look at just April (which I think is a bit more germane to the season), that becomes .699, N/A, .742, .719.

I can understand an argument for bringing Clemens/Short up.  If it costs CastroH (I thought someone said he's out of options), that's fine.  I hate the 14 man pitching staff and shorting the bench, but unfortunately circumstances are kind of dictating that now above preference.  Too many SPs have been dinged up and there doesn't seem to be enough length per arm in the BP.

So where does that leave things with the position players?  Well, they aren't going to move any of Barnhart, Haase, Cabrera, Torkelson, Schoop, Candelario, Baez, Grossman (let's assume he doesn't need an IL stint), Meadows.  That's the catching duo and every starting bat except for CF, so 9 of the 12 position player spots.  Some combo of Hill/Baddoo in CF, which brings up the total to 11 (and keep in mind the Reyes probably isn't too far away).

That leaves one spot for a backup IF, and that cat has to cover 2B, 3B, and SS because that backup doesn't exist among any of the aforementioned players.  Granted, there's not going to be a lot of time needed to cover these spots, but the nagging day-to-day things that pop up on a road trip and Baez needs a day or two off of his feet after getting a shinburger or something like that.  It kind of excludes Clemens at the moment, and the team is stuck with choosing among Castro, Castro, and Short.  Clemens' only shot might be an injury to one of Schoop/Candelario (maybe Torkelson if they slide Schoop over to 1B at which point we'll all be miserable at this season) or reduction of the pitching parts from 14 to 13.

Edited May 3, 2022 by casimir

[mtutiger]

2 minutes ago, casimir said:

I was eyeballing where they have been as hitters in terms of career.  Probably not the most exact way to do it.  Either way, they should be better hitters than what they've been so far this young season.

I would think the early season league wide OPS should increase over time.  BSD had a stat earlier on this season, and I don't recall what hitting stat they used, but it was broken down by month, and there was a general ramp up throughout the season.  It was probably just proof of a general theory, but this put some actual numbers to it.

Just as a cheap barometer, OPS going back a few seasons have been .728 last year, .740 in 2020 (which maybe gets flagged with an asterisk), .758 in 2019, and .728 in 2018.  Now, if you want to look at just April (which I think is a bit more germane to the season), that becomes .699, N/A, .742, .719.

I can understand an argument for bringing Clemens/Short up.  If it costs CastroH (I thought someone said he's out of options), that's fine.  I hate the 14 man pitching staff and shorting the bench, but unfortunately circumstances are kind of dictating that now above preference.  Too many SPs have been dinged up and there doesn't seem to be enough length per arm in the BP.

So where does that leave things with the position players?  Well, they aren't going to move any of Barnhart, Haase, Cabrera, Torkelson, Schoop, Candelario, Baez, Grossman (let's assume he doesn't need an IL stint), Meadows.  That's the catching duo and every starting bat except for CF, so 9 of the 12 position player spots.  Some combo of Hill/Baddoo in CF, which brings up the total to 11 (and keep in mind the Reyes probably isn't too far away).  That leaves one spot for a backup IF, and that cat has to cover 2B, 3B, and SS because that backup doesn't exist among any of the aforementioned players.  Granted, there's not going to be a lot of time needed to cover these spots, but the nagging day-to-day things that pop up on a road trip and Baez needs a day or two off of his feet after getting a shinburger or something like that.  It kind of excludes Clemens at the moment, and the team is stuck with choosing among Castro, Castro, and Short.  Clemens' only shot might be an injury to one of Schoop/Candelario (maybe Torkelson if they slide Schoop over to 1B at which point we'll all be miserable at this season) or reduction of the pitching parts from 14 to 13.

I dont believe the Tigers are required to carry 14 pitchers and, with Alexander hitting IL, they only have 13 on the 26 man roster currently if I'm not mistaken.

I guess I dont understand, if you have Harold to cover SS, why Clemens couldn't displace Willi Castro at the moment. 

[casimir]

12 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

i'm less concerned about the slumping regulars than Harold's terrible glove so far. No matter where they put him in the field the ball is finding him and the Tigers are suffering for it. I just want another player playing where they are playing Harold. They are fixated on carrying so many pitchers that they insist on carrying only (supposedly) IF/OF guys like Willi and Harold. But WIlli can't really play the OF and Harold can't really play SS (or 1B). Give it up and just carry Zach Short AND Cameron till Reyes is back. 

Hinch had Marwin Gonzalez for a bit in Houston.  It kind of seems like he's trying to find that player in Detroit.  I think there's definitely value to having that kind of a player, especially given the roster inflexibility and landlocked positions that the Tigers have with their starters.  But I agree, bite the bullet now in the bigs and just bring up the defensively appropriate players.  They probably aren't that much offensively inferior to the Castros.  Let the position flexibility experiments happen in Toledo.  Gain on the defense, and hope the underperforming starting bats heat up.  At least it gives the Ps a better chance to reduce extra outs, which in turn might lead to not needing that 14th P.

[casimir]

Just now, mtutiger said:

I dont believe the Tigers are required to carry 14 pitchers and, with Alexander hitting IL, they only have 13 on the 26 man roster currently if I'm not mistaken.

I guess I dont understand, if you have Harold to cover SS, why Clemens couldn't displace Willi Castro at the moment. 

Ah, I see it now, they are going with 13 Ps, not 14.  They had 14, placed Alexander on the IL and DFAd Garneau to get from 28 to 26.  I is a idiot.

[mtutiger]

6 minutes ago, casimir said:

Ah, I see it now, they are going with 13 Ps, not 14.  They had 14, placed Alexander on the IL and DFAd Garneau to get from 28 to 26.  I is a idiot.

Its all good.

They may still take advantage of it in spots, particularly whenever Alexander's spot on the rotation comes up; people seem to be assuming that Peralta covers that, but the other option would be to option Willi or Harold and bring up another pitcher from Toledo (presumably Wentz or Faedo) for a start. It's not a terrible idea, but the shuttle back and forth could be Tampa-esque if they do something like that. 

Edited May 3, 2022 by mtutiger

[gehringer_2]

20 minutes ago, casimir said:

I think there's definitely value to having that kind of a player

Absolutely, but you have to have the player. I was no fan of Niko, but just as an example he would have been a lot closer to actually being able to fill that role in the field than Harold. But Niko couldn't hit RHP.

[Jim Cowan]

8 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Absolutely, but you have to have the player. I was no fan of Niko, but just as an example he would have been a lot closer to actually being able to fill that role in the field than Harold. But Niko couldn't hit RHP.

That is the problem for sure, it's great to have Tony Phillips and Skeeter Barnes, but you can't create the role without the player.  The emphasis on flexibility is a bit maddening when it involves guys like the Castros and Haase.  At least now with the end of the crazy 3 catcher roster we won't be seeing Haase in left field anymore.

[casimir]

5 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Its all good.

They may still take advantage of it in spots, particularly whenever Alexander's spot on the rotation comes up; people seem to be assuming that Peralta covers that, but the other option would be to option Willi or Harold and bring up another pitcher from Toledo (presumably Wentz or Faedo) for a start. It's not a terrible idea, but the shuttle back and forth could be Tampa-esque if they do something like that. 

Tell you what, Faedo might be the P to call up tomorrow.  Assuming both Detroit & Toledo have rainouts today, Faedo is supposed to pitch today, but he could probably make the drive up north tomorrow, the Mud Hens will play the makeup game as a part of a DH which will be a pair of 7 inning games shaving 4 IP off of the top end of the organization.  This assumes the Tigers are comfortable with the 13 position players on hand, and Grossman's hand might be the determining factor there.

[Tiger337]

5 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

That is the problem for sure, it's great to have Tony Phillips and Skeeter Barnes, but you can't create the role without the player.  The emphasis on flexibility is a bit maddening when it involves guys like the Castros and Haase.  At least now with the end of the crazy 3 catcher roster we won't be seeing Haase in left field anymore.

I'd settle for Ramon Santiago.  

[gehringer_2]

Perfect world, I would have liked to see Faedo get in enough work at Toledo to get roughed up a little once and then come back with a better start just for him to have that process under his belt. But, can't be helped and it's not like he's 19 and wet behind the ears.

Edited May 4, 2022 by gehringer_2

[casimir]

7 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Perfect world, I would have liked to see Faedo get in enough work at Toledo to get roughed up a little once and then come back with a better start just for him to have that process under his belt. But, can't be helped and it's not like he's 19 and wet behind the ears.

He did give up 2 hits in 1 of his 5 IP at Toledo.  Does that count?

[mtutiger]

Interesting decision for Sunday in Houston.... do you send Faedo down or do you keep him and option someone else? 

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

Interesting decision for Sunday in Houston.... do you send Faedo down or do you keep him and option someone else? 

it will be tough to send him down after throwing a 7 inning SO.

[davidsb623]

DANG!!  The Tigers play Minnesota and Cleveland 15 times in a 14 day stretch at the end of the month.  

[Tigeraholic1]

 

 

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

 

 

I think the Tigers need to start an MiLB clinic on how to get out of the damn way correctly.