2022 DETROIT TIGERS REGULAR SEASON THREAD

[casimir]

11 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I blame the players.  

All of the expected regular Tiger position players have an OPS+ on the the season lower than that of their career (exception for Torkelson solely because he's a rookie).  Well, ok, do we consider the Castros & Hill as regulars?  They are OPS+ing this season above their career line.  That's really all there is to this awful start.

And while we are clamoring for Clemens (or even Short) to get a call up, he's only one bat which may or may not hit if promoted, and at least 2/3 of the lineup has not lived up to their expectations.

I really don't think the lack of hitting can be blamed specifically on Avila.  I think that falls on the hitters themselves, and maybe the coaching staff if they've revised the hitting philosophies.  Now, Avila is culpable for the lack of options on the 40 and in Toledo, so he certainly has a hand in the sluggish start up.

Edited May 13, 2022 by casimir

[Motor City Sonics]

Reds won again. 

Tigers 9-23

Reds 8-24.   

 

They might pass them this weekend. 

[Motor City Sonics]

12 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I blame the players.  

I can't shake the feeling that they really don't care.    They need a red ass or two on this team. 

[mtutiger]

11 hours ago, chasfh said:

Got it. Agree that’s the case and agree it’s a good thing.

I’m reasonably confident that Avila is here for the long haul and that he received assurances about being involved in personnel before agreeing to come here. Which is why I say that if he bugs out after this year, that indicates to me that promises to him were broken which led him to go.

I assume you mean AJ?

When you look at his career arc (his stops in AZ/SD), it's always been apparent that he aspires to be more than just a manager, and it has always appeared to be the case in Detroit. It's not specifically spelled out, but it's pretty clear that he appears to have helped with a lot of decisions behind the scenes with Al since he has taken over. And I suspect that, at some point, he may want to leave the dugout and go upstairs. I'd be cool with that happening here.

In any event, the changes and his apparent larger role in the org is a good thing that should lead to better outcomes for the org going forward, but Avila is still functionally the GM at this point so everything that this organization does will be filtered through that lens.

Edited May 13, 2022 by mtutiger

[chasfh]

12 hours ago, bobrob2004 said:

Do we still like the Baez signing?  Barnhart?  Rodriguez?  Baddoo?  

If Avila hasn't made any bad moves in 2 years, why do so many people want him fired?  

I do like the Baez signing. He is doing just what anyone who's paid attention to him would have expected him to do: streaky hitter with great moments and plus defender who has occasional mental lapses, but overall we'd love having him on the team and watching him play. I told you all of this in November.

I didn't like Barnhart on the team from before the beginning mainly because of his stick, but he was always a done deal because of his defense. Who knew he was going to flip that around? 🤷‍♂️ But he is also WAR positive, so I wouldn't throw him overboard just yet.

Rodriguez got off to a slow start and has picked it up lately. His FIP is outperforming his ERA mainly because of historically-low LOB rates. Not ready to write him off just yet.

Baddoo was a freebie pick who just based on his performance last year has given us more than 95% of all other Rule 5 picks have ever given their teams. He was a 2-win player last year (and under Hinch). How soon they forget.

Surprised you didn't highlight Grossman, who was reported to have been signed specifically at Hinch's behest. Although he was also a 2+ win player last year.

[mtutiger]

7 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Baddoo was a freebie pick who just based on his performance last year has given us more than 95% of all other Rule 5 picks have ever given their teams. He was a 2-win player last year (and under Hinch). How soon they forget.

 

Worth noting the only 2021 Rule 5 pick on the 26 man roster right now is the guy that Avila didn't protect and the Tigers were lucky was returned to them.

[Motor City Sonics]

I still love the Baez signing.  We've only won 9 games, without his defense it might be 7.   

Barnhart is one of the few guys hitting and I can't imagine the state of our catching if he wasn't here

I don't think Rodriguez is another Zimmermann.  I do think he will click a little more the warmer it gets.  He's not a flamethrower, he has to have command and that's hard to do when the tips of your fingers are numb.  He's gonna be Mid 4's ERA  1.3 WHIP, like he always is.  

Baddoo had a Unicorn Season last year.  I knew he and Haase would never repeat last year.  I just never thought it would be this bad.  He needs to get out of his head and have fun again.  He's thinking too much.  He can still be decent. 

Can't wait for Victor's return.   

Edited May 13, 2022 by Motor City Sonics

[bobrob2004]

1 hour ago, casimir said:

All of the expected regular Tiger position players have an OPS+ on the the season lower than that of their career (exception for Torkelson solely because he's a rookie).  Well, ok, do we consider the Castros & Hill as regulars?  They are OPS+ing this season above their career line.  That's really all there is to this awful start.

And while we are clamoring for Clemens (or even Short) to get a call up, he's only one bat which may or may not hit if promoted, and at least 2/3 of the lineup has not lived up to their expectations.

I really don't think the lack of hitting can be blamed specifically on Avila.  I think that falls on the hitters themselves, and maybe the coaching staff if they've revised the hitting philosophies.  Now, Avila is culpable for the lack of options on the 40 and in Toledo, so he certainly has a hand in the sluggish start up.

Did you ever get the feeling that the players are purposely not giving 100% because they are trying to get the manager fired?  

[Motor City Sonics]

If Victor's called up, I'd send Hill down, not Willi.   Willi's actually hitting.   Put him at second a little more.  

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, bobrob2004 said:

Did you ever get the feeling that the players are purposely not giving 100% because they are trying to get the manager fired?  

Nope.

Edited May 13, 2022 by chasfh

[casimir]

24 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

Did you ever get the feeling that the players are purposely not giving 100% because they are trying to get the manager fired?  

Nope.  That affects themselves in return.  They lower their own individual values by doing such.

In all honesty, I find the theory of the Tigers simply mailing it in right now to sabotage management to be absolutely and unequivocally asinine and probably without any shred of critical thought.  But that's just my opinion.

[mtutiger]

47 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Barnhart is one of the few guys hitting and I can't imagine the state of our catching if he wasn't here

Barnhart is definitely fine enough... he got off to a slow start but has BABIPed his way to a better average. His game calling appears to be pretty darn good, and defensively is starting to be better.

The talks about extension before the season (given what we have seen from him thus far) is pretty concerning though.... he's good enough for where they are at the moment, but longer term, they need to give Jake Rogers more runway when he gets healthy, as well as Dingler who, depending on how the season goes, could be in the majors some time next year.

47 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I don't think Rodriguez is another Zimmermann.  I do think he will click a little more the warmer it gets.  He's not a flamethrower, he has to have command and that's hard to do when the tips of your fingers are numb.  He's gonna be Mid 4's ERA  1.3 WHIP, like he always is.  

He is capable of being better than a mid 4's ERA, 1.3 WHIP guy IMO. But either way, the Zimmermann comparisons were always unfair and as much of a reflection on the lack of run support he was getting in some of these starts (the Minnesota start) or the bad defense behind him (LA Dodgers start) than the actual quality of pitching.

Edited May 13, 2022 by mtutiger

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Motor City Sonics said:

If Victor's called up, I'd send Hill down, not Willi.   Willi's actually hitting.   Put him at second a little more.  

Willi can still only hit LHP. Even this little streak is mostly as a RHB, his OPS as. LHB is still only 660. 660 isn’t worth his defensive issues to me. He’s likely still useless as an everyday. I will give him that his Ks seem to be down, but I'd rather see him prove it and a better glove in Toledo.

Edited May 13, 2022 by gehringer_2

[CMRivdogs]

50 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Barnhart is definitely fine enough... he got off to a slow start but has BABIPed his way to a better average. His game calling appears to be pretty darn good, and defensively is starting to be better.

The talks about extension before the season (given what we have seen from him thus far) is pretty concerning though.... he's good enough for where they are at the moment, but longer term, they need to give Jake Rogers more runway when he gets healthy, as well as Dingler who, depending on how the season goes, could be in the majors some time next year.

 

Was checking the list of free agent catchers heading into this season. Barnhart was probably the best option. Most of the potentially available guys are closer to Social Security than being effective behind the plate. His stats are close to league average as well so far this season. 
 

Basically we've ended up with Les Moss or Brian Schneider 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/09/previewing-the-2021-22-free-agent-class-catchers.html

 

Edited May 13, 2022 by CMRivdogs

[mtutiger]

This is on point....

[chasfh]

FWIW, even though I have not called for the firing of Avila lately, I feel my position on the question is so well-known that I don’t have to constantly reiterate it. He is clearly out of his depth as a GM and has not improved enough with Hinch on board that I would want to see him kept in the job any longer.

That said, two things:

1) Al Avila ain’t getting fired as long as the Ilitches own the team. Ilitches value great loyalty above great competence, and Al is nothing if not greatly loyal, so there’s no reason, including any on-field performance reason, that Baby Doc would boot him. Best case scenario is Al gets kicked upstairs, AJ takes over the GM duties, and George Lombard takes over the dugout. That’s not happening.

2) Even if shit-canning Avila were in play, it’s totally a careful-what-you-wish-for situation, since I assume he would merely be replaced by another Ilitch loyalist already somewhere in the organization, probably someone like David Chadd or Scott Bream. 

[Tiger337]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

I do like the Baez signing. He is doing just what anyone who's paid attention to him would have expected him to do: streaky hitter with great moments and plus defender who has occasional mental lapses, but overall we'd love having him on the team and watching him play. I told you all of this in November.

 

You also told us that you believed his good hitting with the Mets was a sign of real improvement as a hitter.  Baez has been exactly what he's always been which is a lot better than they had before.  

[AlaskanTigersFan]

Whatever happened to "The Ceasar". The miracle Scouting program that would take analytics to a whole new level? Did they ditch it or what?

[chasfh]

10 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

You also told us that you believed his good hitting with the Mets was a sign of real improvement as a hitter.  Baez has been exactly what he's always been which is a lot better than they had before.  

I didn’t tell you quite that. What I said was that he had showed improvement with the Mets and that maybe it was just luck and meant nothing, or or maybe Mets coaches found something in his swing and that Coolbaugh could build on that. I was hoping it was the latter, since he was ours now and so It cost nothing to be optimistic about it—well, until it tries to boomerang on you like this. 😏

[oblong]

19 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

Whatever happened to "The Ceasar". The miracle Scouting program that would take analytics to a whole new level? Did they ditch it or what?

Its there but it's not a magic potion. And it also just puts them on a level playing field.

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, casimir said:

Nope.  That affects themselves in return.  They lower their own individual values by doing such.

Very much this here.

This is also somewhat related to the principle that players should ease up when they have big leads—you know, like if you’re up 11-0 in the eighth inning, you shouldn’t try hard to get on base or steal bases or score runs, because it’s unsportsmanlike and against the unwritten rules. But individual players are assessed at the end of the year on their individual stats, which informs their comp, and when it comes to that, it doesn’t matter whether their hits or homers or whatever happened during tight games or during blowouts. It’s all about the bottomline numbers at that point. 

[oblong]

Firing Avila would feel good but I don't see what it would accomplish.  I think he's got a good team under him and I assume they would just take over.  

[gehringer_2]

This discussion is fine, but it's all high level stuff relative to the immediate problem of how you get a team out of a collective funk or hitters out of slumps individually. This may be a situation Hinch has never found himself in and maybe we are learning it's a hole in his repertoire. Or maybe no manager anywhere has ever helped his team break out of a slump. 

[chasfh]

9 minutes ago, oblong said:

Firing Avila would feel good but I don't see what it would accomplish.  I think he's got a good team under him and I assume they would just take over.  

It wouldn’t accomplish anything if he simply were replaced by the loyalists from the early DD era.

I think it’s a highly bifurcated front office team now, split between the long timers and the new breed like Sartori, Menzin and Garko. I wouldn’t doubt if there’s a bit of push me-pull you jockeying going on in the office. 

Edited May 13, 2022 by chasfh

[mtutiger]

25 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I didn’t tell you quite that. What I said was that he had showed improvement with the Mets and that maybe it was just luck and meant nothing, or or maybe Mets coaches found something in his swing and that Coolbaugh could build on that. I was hoping it was the latter, since he was ours now and so It cost nothing to be optimistic about it—well, until it tries to boomerang on you like this. 😏

From a plate discipline perspective, he has been more like the Mets version of Baez than the Cubs one. So at least there's that.

Hope the hitting can be more consistent tho.