Motor City Sonics Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 (edited) The best position player he's ever drafted and signed (and I count his years with Dave Dombrowski) is his own son. So it's kind of hard to really give him credit for drafting his own son, but Alex Avila was a very good defensive catcher and despite low BA, had a very good OBP for a catcher. He's better overall than Nick Castellanos, who has no business even owning a glove. Edited June 16, 2022 by Motor City Sonics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said: The best position player he's ever drafted and signed (and I count his years with Dave Dombrowski) is his own son. So it's kind of hard to really give him credit for drafting his own son, but Alex Avila was a very good defensive catcher and despite low BA, had a very good OBP for a catcher. He's better overall than Nick Castellanos, who has no business even owning a glove. If we are going to the Dombrowski years, I would rate Granderson over Avila. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted June 16, 2022 Author Share Posted June 16, 2022 40 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: There's a difference between what you are worth and what you want. My house has a market value of $250,000. I want to sell it for $600,000 but if the most someone is going to offer me is $250,000, it doesn't mean I was lowballed. It means I misread the market and had an overinflated sense of what my house was worth. Meanwhile, while I was demanding more for my house than every other house in the neighborhood, people started buying up the houses in my neighborhood and mine remained stagnant. Now there are fewer buyers left for my house so I decide to rent it out for a year and hope next year the market will be better. I don’t know anything about your house, but I do know that Carlos Correa is worth more than $27.5 million a year, and he got a lot more than that for the next three years. I think signing the one-year deal with two player options for $35 million a year is a good gamble for him to take, because I believe there is a better than 50/50 chance he ends up making a lot more money over the next ten years than $275 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RatkoVarda Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said: Where I would disagree with this, is: Spencer Turnbull - 2014 #63 pick (2nd round). Tarik Skubal - 2018, 9th round. Greg Soto - International signing. Wilmer Flores - 2020, undrafted FA signing. Tyler Alexander I would suggest the ability to easily identify a handful of genuine prospects (including yes some under the radar guys) from the last 10 years is a damning indictment of Avila and the Tigers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted June 16, 2022 Author Share Posted June 16, 2022 41 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: I don't fault Hinch/ Ilitch/ Avila for taking a shot. Even if it's a 2% shot. I mean, seriously, do you? They're not even allowed to take that shot? I don't know what their selling point was (Hinch: "Hey Carlos, it's ME!" ???), but it didn't work. OK, whatever, move on to the next guy. But to criticize them for trying to take a shot at the best SS on the market, even given Ilitch's financial constraints... Why? I’m not even allowed to express a view that differs from yours? 😉 I don’t think there was even a 0.02% chance Correa was going to take a first offer of 10/275 from any team in November. If Avila thought Correa would take that, then he should be immediately banned from participating in free agent markets at all, because he has no idea how to read markets. I do think, however, that there’s a better than 2% chance that Avila knew there was zero chance that Correa would take the offer. How much better, I can’t say, but that possibility is certainly on the table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 1 minute ago, chasfh said: I don’t know anything about your house, but I do know that Carlos Correa is worth more than $27.5 million a year, and he got a lot more than that for the next three years. I think signing the one-year deal with two player options for $35 million a year is a good gamble for him to take, because I believe there is a better than 50/50 chance he ends up making a lot more money over the next ten years than $275 million. Right the shorter contract comes with more upside but higher risk. That doesn't mean the Tigers lowballed with their $275 million offer considering no one offered more money. It wasn't until after he didn't get more money did he settle for a riskier short term contract. I'm also convinced the Tigers contract had an opt out so he could have still tested the market. All that aside, I'm not even sure the point of the Tigers signing him to that contract. What point would there be to sign Correa for one year? The Tigers were only considered a fringe playoff contender so really what point would there be in having Correa for a year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted June 16, 2022 Author Share Posted June 16, 2022 41 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: It's too early for all of those guys. Then why are you offering them all up as examples of Avila drafting and signing successes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, chasfh said: My question would be, why was Avila bidding at all, due diligence. Why would you not explore a deal? All fans get is press reports and strategic leaks. Until a GM sits down with an agent, it's all nonsense. But there is a larger point I would come back to, which is that if we had MN's deal for Correa right now there would be a huge complaint that all we did was waste 35M on a rental that could have been better spent a dozen other ways. Edited June 16, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 1 minute ago, chasfh said: I’m not even allowed to express a view that differs from yours? 😉 I don’t think there was even a 0.02% chance Correa was going to take a first offer of 10/275 from any team in November. If Avila thought Correa would take that, then he should be immediately banned from participating in free agent markets at all, because he has no idea how to read markets. I do think, however, that there’s a better than 2% chance that Avila knew there was zero chance that Correa would take the offer. How much better, I can’t say, but that possibility is certainly on the table. This is how negotiation works. The Tigers offer $275 million and then Correa gets an offer from another team for $300 million and either the Tigers beat it or walk away. The thing is, the Tigers offer was the highest one he got. No team was willing to go higher so why should the Tigers? The market was established. Correa either takes the Tigers offer or settles for one that guarantees $170 million less and try again next year if you don't get injured or underperform. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 Just now, Motown Bombers said: This is how negotiation works. The Tigers offer $275 million and then Correa gets an offer from another team for $300 million and either the Tigers beat it or walk away. The thing is, the Tigers offer was the highest one he got. No team was willing to go higher so why should the Tigers? The market was established. Correa either takes the Tigers offer or settles for one that guarantees $170 million less and try again next year if you don't get injured or underperform. Yeah - bidding against yourself gets you the Dontrelle Willis or Cabrera deal. Wait - wasn't it our one-time dealing genius that came up with those two? Couldn't have been. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 Just now, gehringer_2 said: Yeah - bidding against yourself gets you the Dontrelle Willis or Cabrera deal. Wait - wasn't it our one-time dealing genius that came up with those two? Couldn't have been. The first Cabrera extension was a steal and worked in the Tigers favor locking him up early. I would say the difference is they were signing a 24 year old Cabrera to a long term extension vs a 30 year old Cabrera. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted June 16, 2022 Author Share Posted June 16, 2022 (edited) 21 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: Right the shorter contract comes with more upside but higher risk. That doesn't mean the Tigers lowballed with their $275 million offer considering no one offered more money. It wasn't until after he didn't get more money did he settle for a riskier short term contract. I'm also convinced the Tigers contract had an opt out so he could have still tested the market. All that aside, I'm not even sure the point of the Tigers signing him to that contract. What point would there be to sign Correa for one year? The Tigers were only considered a fringe playoff contender so really what point would there be in having Correa for a year? The bold part is exactly right, but I don’t think the risk is all that high. It’s not the same risk as you going to Vegas and putting your whole wad on 23 straight up. The risk to Correa is far less than that, he thinks there’s an excellent chance he wins this risk, and I’m inclined to agree with him. That has nothing to do with whether that means the Tigers lowballed him. They most definitely did. His minimum number for a ten-year contract was 340. We were the first team to bid, we offered 275, and that was three months before spring training was scheduled to start. There was no chance he was going to sign for that, especially at that time, and everybody with any clue knew that. That’s practically the platonic ideal of a lowball offer. OK, let’s talk about your house now. You wanna sell your house in Warren. Zillow says it’s worth $250K. You list it for $250K. You have a clear expectation that you will get at least $250K. You get a grand total of one offer, which is for $190K. You decide not to sell the house after all and wait for another day to do so. Are you going to maintain that you weren’t lowballed by that offer, and that you must have merely misread the market instead? Or would you take the $190K, because that’s clearly where the market is? Edited June 16, 2022 by chasfh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted June 16, 2022 Author Share Posted June 16, 2022 13 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: due diligence. Why would not explore a deal. All fans get is press reports and strategic leaks. Until a GM sits down with an agent, it's all nonsense. But there is a larger point I would come back to, which is that if we had MN's deal for Correa right now there would be a huge complaint that all we did was waste 35M on a rental that could have been better spent a dozen other ways. I don’t think there was due diligence at all, if by that you mean the Tigers studied the market and made what they thought was a compelling offer at the top of that market. Because that clearly did not happen. Which is why I wonder whether they made the offer for a different reason, which would be to mollify their fans with the appearance of trying, however weak that might look. I don’t know whether that’s the case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 (edited) 11 minutes ago, chasfh said: if by that you mean the Tigers studied the market and made what they thought was a compelling offer at the top of that market. Because that clearly did not happen. No actually they did. It is prima facie evidence top of market because no-one ever did top it and he ended up settling for something short term with a lot less total PV. I can ask for whatever I want, that doesn't make a market. Offers make a market. I think this is a pretty silly discussion (not that's anything different here! ). The guy was on the market, the Tigers talked to him, made an offer, no deal. Happens All. the. time. End of story. He ended up signing a deal that would have been of almost no value to the Tigers. Imputing a ton of ulterior motives and strategies is just spinning. Edited June 16, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, chasfh said: The bold part is exactly right, but I don’t think the risk is all that high. It’s not the same risk as you going to Vegas and putting your whole wad on 23 straight up. The risk to Correa is far less than that, he thinks there’s an excellent chance he wins this risk, and I’m inclined to agree with him. That has nothing to do with whether that means the Tigers lowballed him. They most definitely did. His minimum number for a ten-year contract was 340. We were the first team to bid, we offered 275, and that was three months before spring training was scheduled to start. There was no chance he was going to sign for that, especially at that time, and everybody with any clue knew that. That’s practically the platonic ideal of a lowball offer. OK, let’s talk about your house now. You wanna sell your house in Warren. Zillow says it’s worth $250K. You list it for $250K. You have a clear expectation that you will get at least $250K. You get a grand total of one offer, which is for $190K. You decide not to sell the house after all and wait for another day to do so. Are you going to maintain that you weren’t lowballed by that offer? Again, nobody paid him what he wanted. That means he wasn't worth what he wanted. The market states he was only worth $275 million. If I ask $250k and the most anybody will pay is $190K, it doesn't mean I was lowballed. It means my house isn't worth as much as I thought it was and I could either accept it since it's the best offer or I can rent it for a year, hope the tenants don't destroy it, try to sell it again next year. There's no guarantee next year I will get the $250k. Lowballing would be if I asked $250K, houses in the neighborhood were going for $220-230k and I was offered $190k when other were offering $230k. I would then counteroffer for $235k because I have other offers. The thing is, Correa didn't have counteroffers. There was absolutely no need for the Tigers to just give Correa an extra $65 million because he wanted it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 55 minutes ago, buddha said: what bolded part? ... Oops. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 38 minutes ago, chasfh said: I don’t know anything about your house, but I do know that Carlos Correa is worth more than $27.5 million a year... I thought it was a $295MM offer... Was it $275MM? I could swear it was 295... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted June 16, 2022 Author Share Posted June 16, 2022 18 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: This is how negotiation works. The Tigers offer $275 million and then Correa gets an offer from another team for $300 million and either the Tigers beat it or walk away. The thing is, the Tigers offer was the highest one he got. No team was willing to go higher so why should the Tigers? The market was established. Correa either takes the Tigers offer or settles for one that guarantees $170 million less and try again next year if you don't get injured or underperform. No one beat the offer because there were—and really, still are—concerns about Correa’s health, and all totally fair concerns. No one wants to be on the hook for 10/341 for a guy who might miss 30 or 40 or 50 games a year. That’s why no one beat the Tigers offer that everyone knew Correa would never take. He has a big health question mark on his forehead. But you keep confusing the idea that he took 3/105 instead of 10/275 as a failure on Correa’s part of misunderstanding his own worth. I don’t think that’s what’s going on here. A healthy Correa is clearly worth 10/341+. Now he has to demonstrate that he’s worth the 10/341+ through both tremendous production, which he is capable of achieving at his 50th percentile projection, and staying on the field practically every day, which he needs at least one year to demonstrate, and maybe more. The big risk is not that he won’t perform while on the field, but that he won’t stay on the field enough. He was in 148 games last year, and so far he’s been in 42 of 65, which isn’t great, but he could still end up with 130 or more games played by the end of this year. If he does that and gets a 6-win season, I would say he stands a decent chance of getting at least 10/360, particularly since he will be the only guy at his level and position in the market. And if he doesn’t get that offer, then I guess he’ll exercise his option in 2023 and try again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 32 minutes ago, chasfh said: Then why are you offering them all up as examples of Avila drafting and signing successes? Because he drafted and signed them? Because they are developing and.. you may have missed my overriding theme of the past couple of days but... Patience. I think they will be successes, but need more time. So, to me... patience. I know everyone is sick of that word... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted June 16, 2022 Author Share Posted June 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: Again, nobody paid him what he wanted. That means he wasn't worth what he wanted. The market states he was only worth $275 million. If I ask $250k and the most anybody will pay is $190K, it doesn't mean I was lowballed. It means my house isn't worth as much as I thought it was and I could either accept it since it's the best offer or I can rent it for a year, hope the tenants don't destroy it, try to sell it again next year. There's no guarantee next year I will get the $250k. Lowballing would be if I asked $250K, houses in the neighborhood were going for $220-230k and I was offered $190k when other were offering $230k. I would then counteroffer for $235k because I have other offers. The thing is, Correa didn't have counteroffers. There was absolutely no need for the Tigers to just give Correa an extra $65 million because he wanted it. Well, OK. I think you were lowballed on the house. 😁 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted June 16, 2022 Author Share Posted June 16, 2022 (edited) 13 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: No actually they did. It is prima facie evidence top of market because no-one ever did top it and he ended up settling for something short term with a lot less total PV. I can ask for whatever I want, that doesn't make a market. Offers make a market. I think this is a pretty silly discussion (not that's anything different here! ). The guy was on the market, the Tigers talked to him, made an offer, no deal. Happens All. the. time. End of story. He ended up signing a deal that would have been of almost no value to the Tigers. Imputing a ton of ulterior motives and strategies is just spinning. I would not consider the cartel of Major League Baseball owners to be any kind of perfect market, especially since there is an established history of collusion among them. So I reject the idea that the single 10-year offer he received is the perfect representation of his worth. The Tigers made an offer that everyone knew he would never take, including them if they have any clue. There’s no due diligence in that as far as I can see. Edited June 16, 2022 by chasfh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalTiger Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 I think the $275 offer was pure PR by the Tigers as everybody knew it would not work. Maybe prayer/wish and PR. Cashmen in NY may have made the best play getting Falefa and Trevino for SS and Catcher and saving tons of money. But then he had Judge etc to bomb the ball. But it is an example of being creative which Al is not. Al is draft pitchers, pay for reputation and shop the garage sales. Another good example was the Brewers trading for Adames. But again I thought Al had a solid off season and Echo84 has list of players that "might" pan out and didn't include Santana and Segura which is why I think Al took Jobe over Mayer unfortunately. But we are all tired of losing. And as Haase said "having our ass handed to us daily " so we are mad. And calling for patience after 7 years of embarrassment might be the correct call but its a big Fing ask after so long so yea I would remove Al Avila without a second thought. But we all know it's not going to happen. He is Mikie's comfy blanket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, chasfh said: No one beat the offer because there were—and really, still are—concerns about Correa’s health, and all totally fair concerns. Sure, this is the key. No-one was going to give him >$300M without him proving his health. He was not going to take anything less than >$300M without the 1 yr opt out so he could try for his big payday again. So that's fine, but given that there is no fit there for the Tigers, so why are we complaining he's not here? (just to complete the thought, one yr does work for Minny because they thought they had a shot this season and they have a close prospect for next yr) Edited June 16, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted June 16, 2022 Author Share Posted June 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: Because he drafted and signed them? Because they are developing and.. you may have missed my overriding theme of the past couple of days but... Patience. I think they will be successes, but need more time. So, to me... patience. I know everyone is sick of that word... I disagree that the mere signing of kids they drafted or scouted is a success for the organization. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalTiger Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 If the Twins win the division and Correa stays healthy then Chas is correct he will get his payday for sure. Could you imagine Boras sitting with an owner telling him about all the extra profit from a playoff team and Carlos the Great just elevated the Twins to new heights. Hell the Twins might give him 10/350 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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