2022 DETROIT TIGERS REGULAR SEASON THREAD

[SoCalTiger]

I also agree that performance at the MLB level is the only true gage of success for draftees. Skubal is a success who IIRC it was Boras who called the Tigers during the draft and told them to draft him and so far Tork is not. But I think he will.

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

Sure, this is the key. No-one was going to give him >$300M without him proving his health. He was not going to take anything less than >$300M without the 1 yr opt out so he could try for his big payday again. So that's fine, but given that there is no fit there for the Tigers, so why are we complaining he's not here?

I never complained about Correa not being here, and I can’t speak for anyone who is.

But I’m arguing beyond the idea that his market was going to be firmly, and finally, established in the offseason of 2021-2022. He doesn’t believe that, and his agreeing to a 3/105 with opt outs is his way of demonstrating that. 

BTW, was he demanding a one-year opt on whatever 10/340+ he would have signed? I missed that one.

[Motown Bombers]

11 minutes ago, chasfh said:

No one beat the offer because there were—and really, still are—concerns about Correa’s health, and all totally fair concerns. No one wants to be on the hook for 10/341 for a guy who might miss 30 or 40 or 50 games a year. That’s why no one beat the Tigers offer that everyone knew Correa would never take. He has a big health question mark on his forehead.

But you keep confusing the idea that he took 3/105 instead of 10/275 as a failure on Correa’s part of misunderstanding his own worth. I don’t think that’s what’s going on here. A healthy Correa is clearly worth 10/341+. Now he has to demonstrate that he’s worth the 10/341+ through both tremendous production, which he is capable of achieving at his 50th percentile projection, and staying on the field practically every day, which he needs at least one year to demonstrate, and maybe more.

The big risk is not that he won’t perform while on the field, but that he won’t stay on the field enough. He was in 148 games last year, and so far he’s been in 42 of 65, which isn’t great, but he could still end up with 130 or more games played by the end of this year. If he does that and gets a 6-win season, I would say he stands a decent chance of getting at least 10/360, particularly since he will be the only guy at his level and position in the market. And if he doesn’t get that offer, then I guess he’ll exercise his option in 2023 and try again.

Wait, you keep saying the Tigers lowballed at $275 million, now you are saying there health risks with Correa which is why no one beat the Tigers offer, and somehow the Tigers not paying $340 million is lowballing? And you go on to say he has to prove he is worth $340 million, which he clearly did not, and the Tigers lowballed by not giving him $340 which you are saying he wasn't worth? The Tigers didn't go above $275 million because of the health risks. It was a fair offer since it was more guaranteed money than any other team was offering for a guy who has a bit of an injury history. I would also be shocked if it didn't include an opt out after two or three years in which he could test the market again. 

[1984Echoes]

4 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Well, OK. I think you were lowballed on the house. 😁

There is a flipside to that which is that the market has tanked.

It might NOT be a lowball offer, it may be the highest possible offer... given market conditions.

And the same may be true of Correa. The market wasn't there for $340MM+ because of health concerns or for any other reason. He may lose health/ speed/ value and NEVER get the money that the Tigers offered.. based on whatever circumstances...

But I don't fault the Tigers for trying/ making the offer... They didn't lowball him. They made an offer that THEY believed fair market value (health concerns and all...); which actually turned out to be the HIGHEST market offer (and therefore NOT a lowball... that's just in everyone's perceptions, in a down market for Baez that was FMV); and Baez didn't want to take that market offer.

And I don't fault Baez for betting on himself either. Because he believes he can stay healthy for a couple years and reach the FMV that he thinks he can get to. But if he doesn't prove he can stay healthy... then the Tigers offer may have been the highest remuneration he will get for the rest of his career because of... market (health) conditions that went against him.

In MB's example... because the market was against him he is going to rent for a year or more until the market comes back in his favor. That's EXACTLY what Baez did...

[gehringer_2]

6 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

Hell the Twins might give him 10/350

well, 'Hell", "Twins" and "10/350" might go together in a true sentence, but it would be more likely to be : Hell will freeze over before the Twins give 10/350 to anybody."

[Motown Bombers]

I mean, the Tigers could still sign Correa next year and move Baez to 2B. 

[gehringer_2]

8 minutes ago, chasfh said:

BTW, was he demanding a one-year opt on whatever 10/340+ he would have signed? I missed that one.

who knows? - I was presenting that as more the after the fact inference of his negotiating bottom lines. He either wanted big guaranteed money or at least big short term money with a short term opt out. From my perspective the Tigers wouldn't have (shouldn't have?) had the confidence in him for the former and were just not much interested in the later. And even there we assume facts not in evidence that Correa was even ready to talk short term before the lock-out.

 

Edited June 16, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

I'll expect everyone here when Correa signs for 9 years $225 million next year to praise Avila for reading the market and knowing that they could get him for less the following year. 

[1984Echoes]

11 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I disagree that the mere signing of kids they drafted or scouted is a success for the organization.

I think kdog's original post was that we can't draft and develop anyone outside of the 1st round... 

So there are two sections in my post... a list of pitchers that we've drafted and developed outside of the 1st round, quite a few of them actually...

And a list of position players from recent years who are still developing.

I'm not calling it a success for the organization (the lack of position players drafted and now in MLB).

I just said, like I think I just did above, that there will be successes with these position players... just with some patience.

No position player successes right now... but there IS a pipeline of talent that we are currently developing. And that's NOT counting Tork & Greene since they are not allowed to be counted, since they are top 10 draft picks and top 10 draft picks don't count (per kdog, IIRC).

And I'm not guaranteeing anything here... I just think that over the next 2-3 years, multiple of these guys will turn out to be impact players for the Tigers.

PS: I forgot to mention Wenceel Perez, who I also really like a lot.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

watch, next year javy will have a career year and correa will get hurt and we'll all be saying Al is a genius.  lol.

Hinch will get credit for it.  

[SoCalTiger]

I think Correa’s goal of 345 million was not available because Linder has not provided 341 million value on his deal plus its Cohen who paid it and nobody can match his horsepower 

[SoCalTiger]

38 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

well, 'Hell", "Twins" and "10/350" might go together in a true sentence, but it would be more likely to be : Hell will freeze over before the Twins give 10/350 to anybody."

I suppose your right but I was just making an exaggerated point 😊

[kdog]

Quote

Some of what the Tigers have dealt with may be bad luck, sheer randomness, or a product of the deadened baseball. By Statcast, they own the majors’ largest gap between wOBA and xwOBA (-34 points), the fourth-largest gap between actual and expected batting average (-23 points), and are tied for the third-largest gap between actual and expected slugging percentage (-69 points). Even so, their .301 xwOBA and .387 xSLG represent major league worsts, and their 300-foot average fly ball distance is the shortest, 14 feet short of the major league average. In the words of James Brown, “People, it’s bad.”.

The most troubling performance belongs to Torkleson, who’s hitting .178/.276/.287 (67 wRC+) with four homers and who has been prone to deep slumps. The number five prospect on our Top 100 Prospects list entering the season, he began his major league career by going 0-for-10 before collecting a double off the Red Sox Rich Hill on April 12; from April 26 to May 12, he endured a 2-for-42 slump with 18 strikeouts; and since collecting three hits apiece in back-to-back games on May 30 and May 31, he’s 3-for-41 with 12 strikeouts. The good news is that he’s chasing just 26.4% of pitches and walking 11% of the time, and he’s hitting the ball somewhat harder than his numbers suggest (note his 7.6% barrel rate and .373 xSLG), but the 70-grade power that made him such an enticing prospect has rarely been evident. Despite a disciplined approach, he’s been unable to do much with breaking or offspeed pitches, hitting for a .197 AVG/.273 SLG against the former and .048 AVG/.048 SLG against the latter.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-historically-bad-offense-is-just-one-of-the-tigers-problems/

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

I suppose your right but I was just making an exaggerated point 😊

Sure. 

I was just commenting out of my sense (after having lived there for a time) that unlike Detroit where we tend to have an inferiority complex about acknowledging the limits our market will support, they almost treat it as part of their civic virtue.

[1984Echoes]

And one more point:

This is probably me, I certainly don't see it anywhere else on this board... 

But I have this OVERWHELMING feeling that we have the 1979 Tigers on our hands. V 2.0.

Everyone else can feel I am totally off base here... I get that.

But Tigers Rookies in:

1976 - Jason Thompson, Mark Fidrych

1977 - Alan Trammell, Lou Whitaker, Lance Parrish, Jack Morris, Steve Kemp, Dave Rozema

1978 - 

1979 - Dan Petry, Kirk Gibson, Tom Brookens, Lynn Jones

1980 - 

1981 - Rick Leach

1982 - Howard Johnson, Glenn Wilson

And it still took until 1984 to win a World Series. I hope we move faster than that, this time. And I hope we have the boatload of prospects, both pitching and position, that come up and build us a World Series team (or three). I offer no guarantees. (How the heck can anyone with prospects...?). And a lot of those talented players I listed above were traded for other players that contributed in 1984, or they crapped out by then (but WERE talented enough) through injuries or what-not, not necessarily sticking around all the way to a W.S. 

But I think Avila has built a farm system boat loaded with MLB talent, both pitching and position... and we are stuck waiting through shit years whilst that talent eventually makes its way to the Tigers.

2018 - Spencer Turnbull

2019 - Tyler Alexander, Greg Soto

2020 - Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal

2021 - Matt Manning, Alex Lange

2022 - Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene (TBD), Alex Faedo, Beau Brieske, Joey Wentz

2023 - (projection, of course, probably Sept. callups, at best): Wilmer Flores, Reese Olson, Ryan Kreidler, Dillon Dingler, Wenceel Perez, Colten Keith (maybe earlier if they think Wenceel is ready for 2B (and time to move on from Schoop) and/ or the team wants to push Candelario at 3B and believe Keith is ready...)

2024 - rough guess: Ty Madden, maybe Gage Workman.

[Hongbit]

10 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

And one more point:

This is probably me, I certainly don't see it anywhere else on this board... 

But I have this OVERWHELMING feeling that we have the 1979 Tigers on our hands. V 2.0.

Everyone else can feel I am totally off base here... I get that.

But Tigers Rookies in:

1976 - Jason Thompson, Mark Fidrych

1977 - Alan Trammell, Lou Whitaker, Lance Parrish, Jack Morris, Steve Kemp, Dave Rozema

1978 - 

1979 - Dan Petry, Kirk Gibson, Tom Brookens, Lynn Jones

1980 - 

1981 - Rick Leach

1982 - Howard Johnson, Glenn Wilson

And it still took until 1984 to win a World Series. I hope we move faster than that, this time. And I hope we have the boatload of prospects, both pitching and position, that come up and build us a World Series team (or three). I offer no guarantees. (How the heck can anyone with prospects...?). And a lot of those talented players I listed above were traded for other players that contributed in 1984, or they crapped out by then (but WERE talented enough) through injuries or what-not, not necessarily sticking around all the way to a W.S. 

But I think Avila has built a farm system boat loaded with MLB talent, both pitching and position... and we are stuck waiting through shit years whilst that talent eventually makes its way to the Tigers.

2018 - Spencer Turnbull

2019 - Tyler Alexander, Greg Soto

2020 - Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal

2021 - Matt Manning, Alex Lange

2022 - Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene (TBD), Alex Faedo, Beau Brieske, Joey Wentz

2023 - (projection, of course, probably Sept. callups, at best): Wilmer Flores, Reese Olson, Ryan Kreidler, Dillon Dingler, Wenceel Perez, Colten Keith (maybe earlier if they think Wenceel is ready for 2B (and time to move on from Schoop) and/ or the team wants to push Candelario at 3B and believe Keith is ready...)

2024 - rough guess: Ty Madden, maybe Gage Workman.

Having major league talent is not the same as being able to be a consistent major league player.   Maybe 1 in 10 with the talent are able to make it up and stick.    That number is probably far less for position players.     This is a really hard game and most minor leaguers with major talent still fail.  

[casimir]

5 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

And I think Avila IS the person to build a winner.

So... there's that.

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

Wait, you keep saying the Tigers lowballed at $275 million, now you are saying there health risks with Correa which is why no one beat the Tigers offer, and somehow the Tigers not paying $340 million is lowballing? And you go on to say he has to prove he is worth $340 million, which he clearly did not, and the Tigers lowballed by not giving him $340 which you are saying he wasn't worth? The Tigers didn't go above $275 million because of the health risks. It was a fair offer since it was more guaranteed money than any other team was offering for a guy who has a bit of an injury history. I would also be shocked if it didn't include an opt out after two or three years in which he could test the market again. 

I would bet that if Carlos Correa were asked why he turned down the 10/275 offer, he would say that it was because it was a lowball offer. If he thought it was a good offer, his market peak, then he would have taken it.

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

who knows? - I was presenting that as more the after the fact inference of his negotiating bottom lines.

 

I don’t think any team would have agreed to offer him an opt after one year on a 10/340, and I don’t believe Correa (basically Boras) would have insisted on that. Maybe after two years, more likely after three or four.

[Motown Bombers]

20 minutes ago, casimir said:

Guess I'm not sure how people expect rebuilds to go? It's going to be for a few years before it gets better. I think the problem is the Tigers just don't seem to have the depth of the talent they should have after going through 4 years of tanking. 

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

I'll expect everyone here when Correa signs for 9 years $225 million next year to praise Avila for reading the market and knowing that they could get him for less the following year. 

What circumstances would have to transpire for Carlos Correa to sign a long term deal that pays him $10 million less AAV, as well as giving up $20 million over the next two years? If he has even a decent year, no way he signs for that. Flip side, if he collapses and has a terrible year, or his year gets cut short by injury, no way any team offers him that.

[gehringer_2]

Just now, chasfh said:

What circumstances would have to transpire for Carlos Correa to sign a long term deal that pays him $10 million less AAV, as well as giving up $20 million over the next two years? If he has even a decent year, no way he signs for that. Flip side, if he collapses and has a terrible year, or his year gets cut short by injury, no way any team offers him that.

If the economy turns down, will that cause owners to pull back? Certainly some sources of revenue with fall, but if more people stay home might the value of broadcast right go up?

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, kdog said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-historically-bad-offense-is-just-one-of-the-tigers-problems/

Further:

While hitting coach Scott Coolbaugh’s job is in jeopardy given the team’s lack of production, Hinch’s name has not yet popped up among those of managers on the hot seat. In fact, the length of both his contract and that of general manager Al Avila aren’t public knowledge, though they are believed to be linked in their expiration dates; the latter, whose first contract covered 2016-20, signed an extension in July 2019 but obviously hasn’t gotten anywhere with the team’s rebuilding. For all of the team’s promise, a housecleaning is probably in order if the results don’t improve.

[chasfh]

34 minutes ago, casimir said:

He also gets credit for 2016: 86-75.

Which, to me, makes 2017-2022 look even worse.

[chasfh]

12 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

If the economy turns down, will that cause owners to pull back? Certainly some sources of revenue with fall, but if more people stay home might the value of broadcast right go up?

So, a macroeconomic event in the next nine months that results in massive deflation which drives all pay down by double digits? Essentially, an economic depression that rivals the one from 90 years ago?

That’s one way, I guess.

Edited June 16, 2022 by chasfh