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2022 DETROIT TIGERS REGULAR SEASON THREAD


chasfh

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2 hours ago, buddha said:

i think we can forget Faedo.  the odds he ever amounts to anything but depth filler are pretty steep.

He was a bit of a mirage when he first started. A lot was made of the “Tigers record” he set in his first seven starts, with two or fewer earned runs while pitching five or more innings:

https://stathead.com/tiny/GUkDa

When you look at the stats surrounding it, though, you can see the gold paint starting chip away. Only one outing as long as six innings; giving up almost a hit an inning; fewer than 7 K/9; and ERA almost three, which is by far the highest of any pitching who started his career with the same kind of streak stretching even four games. Plus, if you look under the hood a little deeper, you can see his FIP was almost a run higher than his ERA, and his xFIP was a half a run higher than that.

All of this comports with his Statcast card:

image.thumb.png.520feda5336f699171e11786f7d231e6.png

So none of this should surprise.

I don’t think we’ll miss him much when he finally goes. Perhaps unless he catches on with the Rays … 😏

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The caveat with Faedo is that he was coming off TJ (which may factor a little bit into his performance / metrics) and likely wouldn't have been leveraged as much as he was by the big club if it weren't for the raft of injuries that that the Tigers rotation faced early on.

Having said that, now having to go under for hip surgery on top of coming off TJ, while fading fast in the last few starts, he's kind of in the same boat as a Kyle Funkhouser where it's easy to see him being lapped by other folks within the system, others coming back off injury (ie. Turnbull) or, less likely, possible free agent acquisitions in the future whenever the day comes when he could theoretically come back.

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i've never thought faedo was any good.  

but i didnt figure skubal would be this good, so what do i know?

i have serious doubts about mize but i'm still on the manning bandwagon.  i think manning bas the best shot at being a star.

who knows about jobe?  not i.  but again, i have my doubts considering he was an avila pick.

unlike mtu, i am worried about tork.

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1 hour ago, buddha said:

i've never thought faedo was any good.  

but i didnt figure skubal would be this good, so what do i know?

i have serious doubts about mize but i'm still on the manning bandwagon.  i think manning bas the best shot at being a star.

who knows about jobe?  not i.  but again, i have my doubts considering he was an avila pick.

unlike mtu, i am worried about tork.

I can't decide about Mize. I don't think he has shown much strength at the mental aspect, but that can change. Bigger problem is that there isn't much swing and miss in his fastball, he has to command it. If TJ stabilizes his elbow it could actually help his command, but either way command remains an unknown coming out of the surgery and for Mize it's especially critical. Bottom line, he hasn't justified being picked over Brady Singer.

Edited by gehringer_2
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Mize Faedo Tork all first rounders and two are 1-1 with doubtful futures including Mize before the injury and we ranked for two of them and Al still has his job ?

Where in the world is that level of incompetence tolerated in a position of power. Besides the White House that is decade after decade. 

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1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

I can't decide about Mize. I don't think he has shown much strength at the mental aspect, but that can change. Bigger problem is that there isn't much swing and miss in his fastball, he has to command it. If TJ stabilizes his elbow it could actually help his command, but either way command remains an unknown coming out of the surgery and for Mize it's especially critical. Bottom line, he hasn't justified being picked over Brady Singer.

The splitter was always his out pitch and, not for nothing, it's also the pitch that put him on Meister's table. What are the chances he can use that pitch after he recovers from surgery? And if he doesn't have that pitch, what are his chances at a decent career, at least in the Tigers' system?

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43 minutes ago, chasfh said:

The splitter was always his out pitch and, not for nothing, it's also the pitch that put him on Meister's table. What are the chances he can use that pitch after he recovers from surgery? And if he doesn't have that pitch, what are his chances at a decent career, at least in the Tigers' system?

You would think that a team that saw Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer win Cy Youngs on their roster would have figured out that successful MLB pitchers should be able to get guys out with the fastball. With that the rest is gravy. Without it, 'the rest' may become a constant struggle.

Edited by gehringer_2
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18 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

You would think that a team that saw Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer win Cy Youngs on their roster would have figured out that successful MLB pitchers should be able to get guys out with the fastball. With that the rest is gravy. Without it, 'the rest' may become a constant struggle.

They did let both of them get away when they should have extended them. Their decision making is definitely suspect.

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55 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

You would think that a team that saw Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer win Cy Youngs on their roster would have figured out that successful MLB pitchers should be able to get guys out with the fastball. With that the rest is gravy. Without it, 'the rest' may become a constant struggle.

In their defense, everyone had Casey Mize 1/1, so they can hide behind the cloak of conventional wisdom on this one. 🤷‍♂️

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30 minutes ago, chasfh said:

In their defense, everyone had Casey Mize 1/1, so they can hide behind the cloak of conventional wisdom on this one. 🤷‍♂️

True enough. But that was only because Singer, who was equally consensus a few months earlier had  gotten himself a little twisted around. Not to harp on Singer in particular but just to point out the ephemeral nature of prospect draft rankings. I think maybe the prospect evaluators tend to go a little overboard for young breaking ball pitchers (e.g. Mize, Kumar, Jobe(!?!?) at various point). Those balls darting all over the place making college hitters look foolish are beguiling, but most major league hitters (sadly not all, Mr Baez!) make you throw that breaking ball for a strike, and it's suddenly a whole different world.

Edited by gehringer_2
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3 hours ago, chasfh said:

In their defense, everyone had Casey Mize 1/1, so they can hide behind the cloak of conventional wisdom on this one. 🤷‍♂️

I hate to defend the Tigers but that does seem a reasonable defense in this case.  Most scouts thought he had top of the rotation stuff, maybe as a number two more than a number one.  Obviously, it looks like everybody missed on him.  

The problem for Avila is there seems to be a common theme of misses over and over and over again.  

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4 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

You would think that a team that saw Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer win Cy Youngs on their roster would have figured out that successful MLB pitchers should be able to get guys out with the fastball. With that the rest is gravy. Without it, 'the rest' may become a constant struggle.

I thought letting Scherzer walk was the right move.  Turned out to be a mistake.   

Verlander is an interesting situation because he got traded from the Tigers to Houstan at the perfect time.  I think if he had stayed, things would not have gone as well for him the last 5 years, even with missing pretty much all of 2021-22.  Pitching for a winning team is more motivating than pitching for a losing team.  Now I am starting to wonder if he has a chance at 300 wins.  He doesn't seem like a guy that is interested in retiring and is going to play as long as he can.  Nolan Ryan pitched till 46 and had 71 wins after the age of 40.   Verlander plays for the right team to have a chance of getting there.  

 

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So far atleast nobody in the top 10 picks of the 2018 draft have amounted to much of anything. Bart has struggled mightily in his time in the majors, Bohm has been below par, Kelenic has been atrocious and even last year's ROY India is now at a negative WAR this season.

Guys in the middle of the first like Grayson Rodriguez(top 5 prospect in baseball right now), Logan Gilbert and Nolan Gorman all appear to be guys I'd rather have than Mize but as far as guys we realistically would've drafted I'm not sure we're any worse off with Mize than those guys.  

 

Edited by RandyMarsh
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29 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

So far atleast nobody in the top 10 picks

only because Singer dropped so low (again, pointing out the marginal value of the prognosticators). He has a reasonable shot at a 3.5-4 WAR season pitching for a poor team. He's not challenging anyone for a Cy Young but he's looking like a reasonable mid-rotation guy. After a slow start the Royals have won 5 of his last 8 starts, which isn't bad for the Royals.

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7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

The guy advocating for Skubal to be traded and who appears to have invented the "AJ Opt-Out" myth appears excited by Daniel Norris being back for some reason....

Hate to pick on the guy, but he's losing it.

He hasn’t had it for a while. He epitomizes clickbait, but he’s really just struggling to stay relevant at any cost.  Best to just ignore him and avoid getting sucked in.  Nothing good will come from it.

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23 hours ago, buddha said:

i've never thought faedo was any good.  

but i didnt figure skubal would be this good, so what do i know?

i have serious doubts about mize but i'm still on the manning bandwagon.  i think manning bas the best shot at being a star.

who knows about jobe?  not i.  but again, i have my doubts considering he was an avila pick.

unlike mtu, i am worried about tork.

You never think anybody is going to be good.

which means you are usually right especially with the Tigers.  

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1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

The guy advocating for Skubal to be traded and who appears to have invented the "AJ Opt-Out" myth appears excited by Daniel Norris being back for some reason....

Hate to pick on the guy, but he's losing it.

it will be interesting to see him pitch, but his numbers indicate his problem is the same as ever - way too many walks (6.3/9), i.e., bad mechanics. As usual, the stuff was OK - low hits and high Ks.

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