LongLiveMaroth Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 (edited) 36 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said: Yup. Who trades a young player who has clearly demonstrated a solid understanding of the strike zone and does well in the league he is playing in despite being significantly younger than the competition. And adds in a high draft pick on the heels of many years of losing seasons. An idiot that’s who. The Rays fleeced him and are in mourning since his firing. this really bugs me. When you assume you will get a player that had 120 wrc for multiple seasons in return it makes sense. I understand what you are saying about his strike zone ability but it honestly hasn't been shown in the bigs even with his latest hot streak it's not like he is killing it with both the average or walking. If Meadows had his average season I doubt this would be as big of a talking point over this season. If Paredes turn into Suarez I'll be the first to call this a bad trade. Right now it doesn't look great and I accept that but I feel like lots of that is based on what has happened that was out of anyone's control. I would bet that Paredes ends up as a 1B/DH in the next couple years because he just doesn't have the body type to be a positive in the field which has limited value without a large OPS. Edited August 29, 2022 by LongLiveMaroth 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toddwert Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 Cody Mention on his latest podcast that he heard thier was an 80-20 split in the draft room wether to draft Jung (20) or Neto (80)..... with the scouts and AL on the Jung side and the data guys on the Neto Side... interesting if true Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RatkoVarda Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 27 minutes ago, Toddwert said: Cody Mention on his latest podcast that he heard thier was an 80-20 split in the draft room wether to draft Jung (20) or Neto (80)..... with the scouts and AL on the Jung side and the data guys on the Neto Side... interesting if true depressing if true 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabretooth Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 5 hours ago, 1984Echoes said: This tells me there are too many problems to fix. So I go internal first to see how many can fixed, internally, and evaluate after 2023 season how many/ how much money must be used on external players on positions that can't be fixed internally. That's my recommendation. I agree at this point....they have to plug-and-pray in 2023, and mostly the plugging will be with guys they already have in 2022. Schoop, Candy and Baddoo are all going to have shots at delivering 1.5+ WAR, and they are perfectly capable of doing it, or they will be cut loose by one of the worst teams in baseball and likely following Renato Nunez to Korea or whereever he is. Even if those "Lost Boys" find themselves again, as you pointed out, other more fundamental problems will remain in 2023, 2024 and beyond -- the guys that they spent high 1st round draft picks on (Greene, Tork, Manning, Mize, Jobe, whoever is coming up after this 95+ loss season) will need to become good, healthy players, and Javy is going to have to be at least a decent player, or this team is going to be in full rebuild mode again. The problem in my opinion is NOT that they have sunk into guys that aren't producing, other than Miggy. Even with Baez, if he can just hit OK 95-105 OPS+ and field 2B reasonably he would be a solid 2+ WAR guy, which wouldn't be "worth the money" but the marginal difference between the value of 2+WAR and $25M/year isn't enough to determine the Tigers' fate. The CORE problem is that they have to start generating two decent-to-better starting players out of the non-1st Round-picks every year (either by developing or tradind drafted talent), something they haven't done for a long time. At this moment, we're talking about K. Carpenter, Dingler, Kriedler, Lipcius, W Perez, and the 18-20 year olds further down the line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, sabretooth said: ... The CORE problem is that they have to start generating two decent-to-better starting players out of the non-1st Round-picks every year (either by developing or tradind drafted talent), something they haven't done for a long time. At this moment, we're talking about K. Carpenter, Dingler, Kriedler, Lipcius, W Perez, and the 18-20 year olds further down the line. That's a lot of wait and see right there... But I actually believe in quite a few of those guys so I'm willing to wait this out... Also including Keith, Jobe (who I think will move quickly in the next 1-2 years), Flores & Olson & Wentz & Madden, and also the recoveries of Mize, Skubal & Turnbull. And the needed improvements from Tork & Greene. I know others aren't so willing to wait because they've had enough of patience... As impatient as I usually am... this is where I find myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabretooth Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 5 hours ago, Jim Cowan said: Paredes can stink for 7 straight weeks and all is quiet here. Then he has a good weekend and the Rays fleeced the Tigers. Yeah, I was the biggest AA detractor but what happened to Meadows is completely blind bad luck. I/P might wind up being a good hitter/player, he certainly seems to be coming around power-wise, and his strike zone judgment and K/BB are nice, even when he's struggling, so there's more there now than his 100 at-bat hot streak. I'll be interested to see where things stand by this time next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabretooth Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 Just now, 1984Echoes said: That's a lot of wait and see right there... But I actually believe in quite a few of those guys so I'm willing to wait this out... Also including Keith, Jobe (who I think will move quickly in the next 1-2 years), Flores & Olson & Wentz & Madden, and also the recoveries of Mize, Skubal & Turnbull. And the needed improvements from Tork & Greene. I know others aren't so willing to wait because they've had enough of patience... As impatient as I usually am... this is where I find myself. Yeah, I didn't mention the younger guys, I am focusing on guys who are knocking on the door and could challenge for a starting role in 2023 and/or 2024. It will hopefully be time for Colt, Jobe, Jung, Graham, Pacheco, Santana, Campos, to show what they have in 2025 and beyond. Beyond 2 years, though, and the prospects can be interesting, but there's too much unpredictability even about the best players in their primes to have any clue about what is going to happen with any prospect in 3 years much less 4 or 5. The only thing that matters beyond 2 years is whether the owner is committed to winning and capable. If that is the case, you have a good chance. If that is not, it's probably not going to matter who you have in the pipeline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 The other problem that the Rays have not solved with Paredes is the same problem the Tigers faced...where do you put his glove? He hasn't played third since the middle of June. Currently in August, he has played 53 innings at first, and 45 at second. Well no matter how much we think he has improved as a hitter, he doesn't have enough bat for first base or DH. I hope he does well and gets a nice payday but he still has a lot of flaws. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 6 hours ago, 1984Echoes said: But I keep Jeimer for 1 more year, tender him, and figure it out in 2023... But that's just me. Arb salaries can drop by a max of 20%, don't know if it ever actually happens though. If team offered -20% and the player offered no change, I can't imagine any MLB arb not taking the player's NC number since no raise would already be considered a huge concession in the current system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 I would not be surprised to see the Tigers make another push for Correa. They must know they can’t keep Baez at SS for the next 5 seasons and getting Correa would engender some goodwill with the fans. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabretooth Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 29 minutes ago, Tenacious D said: I would not be surprised to see the Tigers make another push for Correa. They must know they can’t keep Baez at SS for the next 5 seasons and getting Correa would engender some goodwill with the fans. That would be great. I am not saying that its guarantees to work out the way we ideally want or even mostly, though it could prove to be a huge turning point. After the firesale in 2017 and the subsequent 4 year starvation diet, it wouldn't be a sin to at least sport an average payroll, and there's going to be adequate space to fit in Correa and still have a league average payroll post Miggy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 I think that Correa is going to be disappointed, again, that no one offers him a Lindor deal. He'll get AAV but not the years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 LOL - Rangers have committed half a billion to their middle infield, and they can't turn easy double plays. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 (edited) 10 hours ago, Jim Cowan said: Paredes can stink for 7 straight weeks and all is quiet here. Then he has a good weekend and the Rays fleeced the Tigers. Yup. And when he goes cold again (and he will)... it will go quiet again. Edited August 30, 2022 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalTiger Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 11 hours ago, RatkoVarda said: depressing if true Because Neto can play the field and Jung can’t ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalTiger Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 11 hours ago, LongLiveMaroth said: When you assume you will get a player that had 120 wrc for multiple seasons in return it makes sense. I understand what you are saying about his strike zone ability but it honestly hasn't been shown in the bigs even with his latest hot streak it's not like he is killing it with both the average or walking. If Meadows had his average season I doubt this would be as big of a talking point over this season. If Paredes turn into Suarez I'll be the first to call this a bad trade. Right now it doesn't look great and I accept that but I feel like lots of that is based on what has happened that was out of anyone's control. I would bet that Paredes ends up as a 1B/DH in the next couple years because he just doesn't have the body type to be a positive in the field which has limited value without a large OPS. Really liked your reply and I’m certainly not going to try to debate you on the trade knowing what you know and what I do not but the dollar value exchange is often overlooked in this transaction which I think was a driving motivation for Tampa. It’s a third piece if you will that Tampa gained to use towards other assets. It’s essentially a 3 for 1 trade. As for Parades lower obp at the mlb level it’s clear he has sacrificed that for power. Quite a bit of power and I won’t be surprised if the obp increases in time. He is still only 23. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 1 hour ago, SoCalTiger said: Because Neto can play the field and Jung can’t ? I think part of the reason was a question about if Jung's bat would translate to MLB fastballs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 As an aside, the discussion about Paredes that Cody had on the podcast was fair, but the discussion about Grossman's "resurgence" being a big deal was kinda BS. They made a huge deal about his big couple of games, but then qualified his cooling off in the past couple of games as "those things just happen in baseball". Like, c'mon. The discussion about whether a player was getting the help he needed was a better angle of the discussion, but then again, the guy who built this front office is gone. And along with it one envisions that positive changes could come from that in the analytics and performance science spaces of the org. I would be more angry if Al were still here, but am willing to be patient to see who they hire to fix the mess and what they do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 10 hours ago, Jim Cowan said: I think that Correa is going to be disappointed, again, that no one offers him a Lindor deal. He'll get AAV but not the years. I can see this as becoming the more trend with FA players. More opt outs as well. Teams have to be getting smarter business wise to not sink 10+ year deals with post 25 year olds... The exceptions, IMHO, will be home grown talents (or by trade) that are under 25-26 ex JRodricuez, FTatis Jr., etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLiveMaroth Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 10 hours ago, Jim Cowan said: I think that Correa is going to be disappointed, again, that no one offers him a Lindor deal. He'll get AAV but not the years. Honestly I agree with this, he has been generally healthy this year (has played in 103 games) and honestly hasn't set the world on fire. Yes he has a 129 wRC+ but he has a OPS of .790. This was his chance to reset his market at age 27 but looking at it anyone hoping they were going to get 2017 or 2019 Correa would have to be really optimistic. I wouldn't be surprised if he got a deal just a little better than Baez and Story did this past year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 12 minutes ago, LongLiveMaroth said: Honestly I agree with this, he has been generally healthy this year (has played in 103 games) and honestly hasn't set the world on fire. Yes he has a 129 wRC+ but he has a OPS of .790. This was his chance to reset his market at age 27 but looking at it anyone hoping they were going to get 2017 or 2019 Correa would have to be really optimistic. I wouldn't be surprised if he got a deal just a little better than Baez and Story did this past year. Have to look at the market within the context of who is available in this upcoming offseason.. and while Correa has a few advantages over TT, it's really hard for me to see him getting more than TT 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted August 30, 2022 Author Share Posted August 30, 2022 (edited) I liked the hubris of the trade at the time because we thought we could still complete and needed someone to take over when Riley went down, and it was clear that Paredes was never going to get a real chance in Al Avila’s world. He didn’t get even as many at bats here as Travis Demeritte, perhaps because Al thought he had to prove trading for Demeritte was a good move. It’s not as though Paredes was always considered no better than a fringe prospect, though, at least outside the eyeball scouts in the Tiger camp. The national scouting reports all said he had an exceptional hit tool, which he has proven out over several seasons of minor and now major league ball; and even though he’s stocky and was always likely to move from the middle to the corners, his glove and arm were considered solid even if his range isn’t. Even this year, all the main stat sources agree that Paredes is having a plus defensive year. The main reason he’s not playing third every day in Tampa is Yandy Diaz. I would bet at some point in the next few years, maybe next year or 2024, Diaz moves over to first or leaves the organization, and Paredes will be given his chance to hold down third base on the regular. He may end up a full-time DH someday, but at age 23 with even average D, that day is not now. Paredes will probably not become Aaron Judge, in that he won’t stop having down periods. Very few players don’t go through down periods, and it’s clear that when Paredes does struggle at the dish, the See I Told Ya Crowd will be here and all over that, just as they have been lately, while others will be all over his recent stats when he is in an upswing. Either way, though, the overall takeaway is undeniable: Isaac Paredes has been a very pleasant net gain for the Rays. He will have been worth 2-3 wins by the time the season ends, and so far, we are getting nothing in return for that, and whatever our personal takes on the trade are, I think we can all agree that part definitely sucks out loud. Edited August 30, 2022 by chasfh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longgone Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 17 hours ago, Toddwert said: Cody Mention on his latest podcast that he heard thier was an 80-20 split in the draft room wether to draft Jung (20) or Neto (80)..... with the scouts and AL on the Jung side and the data guys on the Neto Side... interesting if true Except this isn't how it works, the board is long done by the time they are in the draft room, the only issue left is signability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabretooth Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 2 hours ago, mtutiger said: As an aside, the discussion about Paredes that Cody had on the podcast was fair, but the discussion about Grossman's "resurgence" being a big deal was kinda BS. They made a huge deal about his big couple of games, but then qualified his cooling off in the past couple of games as "those things just happen in baseball". Like, c'mon. The discussion about whether a player was getting the help he needed was a better angle of the discussion, but then again, the guy who built this front office is gone. And along with it one envisions that positive changes could come from that in the analytics and performance science spaces of the org. I would be more angry if Al were still here, but am willing to be patient to see who they hire to fix the mess and what they do. Yes, I felt the most important takeaway from the Grossman thing wasn't his hitting it was what he said (which was essentially that he had not had direct assistance from analysts before) and what Hinch said (essentially that the Tigers should look into doing that). When discussions focus on what they should have done with some guy, a pop-up meme-fest erupts every time the guy gets hot or cold. It's like arguing about climate change...it becomes a stand-in about people's prior convictions about the guy, the Manager, the GM, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordstanley Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 Hinch was interviewed on Power Alley on Sirius XM this morning : - Manning has pitched well but needs to work on changeup to get better against left-handed hitters - Relieved to have Eduardo back obviously - Greene has made some adjustments, biggest issue now is zone control - Unsure whether Tork will be brought up or not when rosters expanded; meeting with staff on that today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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