2022 DETROIT TIGERS REGULAR SEASON THREAD

[chasfh]

1901 to present is considered modern baseball in terms of research, because of the game’s structural resemblance to today as well as the completeness of information that’s available to sift through.

Within that time period, it’s appropriate to divide the game into eras to reflect the way it has changed over the decades. The most commonly-defined are live ball era (since 1920), integrated era (since 1947), expansion era (since 1961), divisional era (since 1969), and wild card era (since 1994 or 1995). I’ve also seen various names for the homer-happy era that’s existed since 1998—I like to call that the Chicks Dig The Long Ball Era—or even the millennial era (since 2000 or 2001). And of course, people like to divide the game into eras based on decades (“winningest pitcher of the 80s”) for none but calendarial reasons. All of these eras are subsumed into the broad designation of modern era (since 1901).

This merely reflects a set of accepted definitions for the purposes of research nerdery, though. Fans are obviously free to divide baseball into any era they want for their own personal purposes. My personal live ball era starts in 1972, because that’s when I started seeing games live.

Edited September 9, 2022 by chasfh

[Motor City Sonics]

Watching Albert Pujols going out in a blaze of glory with a first place team is really depressing.  I wish Miggy could have had something like that, but the fact that they are talking about him returning is just silly.   This guy's beyond done.  He got his milestones and I'm happy for that, but it's just pathetic.  It's obvious he just can't do it anymore.   No reason for him to come back this season and they should pay him his salary for next year, retire his jersey and throw him a big party on or near their April 18th game next year (his 40th Birthday).   It almost feels cruel at this point. 

[Tenacious D]

I now think it’s 50/50 he plays next season. I do think it will be his choice, but I also think they will help him with a dignified exit if he chooses so.  His deteriorating play is not a result of him getting old, it’s really just his bad knees have rendered his lower half pretty useless in driving the ball. No shame in that, but also no further need in tarnishing his reputation any more than the second half of this season has.

Edited September 9, 2022 by Tenacious D

[Motor City Sonics]

1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

I now think it’s 50/50 he plays next season. I do think it will be his choice, but I also think they will help him with a dignified exit if he chooses so.  His deteriorating play is not a result of him getting old, it’s really just his bad knees have rendered his lower half pretty useless in driving the ball. No shame in that, but also no further need in tarnishing his reputation any more than the second half of this season has.

Well the bad knees is part of getting old.    Trust me, he is not walking away from the money.   Not with those child support payments - he's going to take every dime he can (and frankly he SHOULD, not his fault the Tigers offered such a dumb contract).   The Tigers need to just pay him and make him some kind of goodwill ambassador for a year.   The Rocking Chair Tour would just be awful.    Chris doesn't know enough about the game or respect the game enough to do the right thing.   No more real milestones to sell tickets.   We all knew the end would be bad, but not this bad.  

[bobrob2004]

5 hours ago, buddha said:

i guess you could use 1947 because of jackie robinson.  i would probably put it in the 1920s with ruth and the beginning of the movement away from the cobb era of small ball.

We might be entering a new modern era with the universal DH and expanded interleague play.  

[bobrob2004]

4 hours ago, chasfh said:

1901 to present is considered modern baseball in terms of research, because of the game’s structural resemblance to today as well as the completeness of information that’s available to sift through.

Within that time period, it’s appropriate to divide the game into eras to reflect the way it has changed over the decades. The most commonly-defined are live ball era (since 1920), integrated era (since 1947), expansion era (since 1961), divisional era (since 1969), and wild card era (since 1994 or 1995). I’ve also seen various names for the homer-happy era that’s existed since 1998—I like to call that the Chicks Dig The Long Ball Era—or even the millennial era (since 2000 or 2001). And of course, people like to divide the game into eras based on decades (“winningest pitcher of the 80s”) for none but calendarial reasons. All of these eras are subsumed into the broad designation of modern era (since 1901).

This merely reflects a set of accepted definitions for the purposes of research nerdery, though. Fans are obviously free to divide baseball into any era they want for their own personal purposes. My personal live ball era starts in 1972, because that’s when I started seeing games live.

The "Steroid Era" from around 1998-2005.

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Watching Albert Pujols going out in a blaze of glory with a first place team is really depressing.  I wish Miggy could have had something like that, but the fact that they are talking about him returning is just silly.   This guy's beyond done.  He got his milestones and I'm happy for that, but it's just pathetic.  It's obvious he just can't do it anymore.   No reason for him to come back this season and they should pay him his salary for next year, retire his jersey and throw him a big party on or near their April 18th game next year (his 40th Birthday).   It almost feels cruel at this point. 

Yes, exactly! I’ve been trying to get a grip on my feelings every time I hear that Pujols has hit yet another home run. I knew I wasn’t feeling quite angry or upset, which were way too strong to describe it, but man, you nailed it: it depresses me, mainly because I want to be as happy about it as my Mets fan and Red Sox fan friends are, but I’m not, and I wish I were, which made me feel even worse about it, and I couldn’t quite articulate why.

But you’re totally right: it’s totally depressing to see Pujols, whose record since 2017 through last season (.241/.290/.410, 87 OPS+ in 2,138 PA) was surprisingly far worse than Miggy’s (.264/.335/.401, 99 OPS+ In 1,992 PA), experience this amazing fountain of youth last act, while we Tiger fans know that it is literally completely impossible for Miggy to have that same last hurrah.

GAAAH!

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

I now think it’s 50/50 he plays next season. I do think it will be his choice, but I also think they will help him with a dignified exit if he chooses so.  His deteriorating play is not a result of him getting old, it’s really just his bad knees have rendered his lower half pretty useless in driving the ball. No shame in that, but also no further need in tarnishing his reputation any more than the second half of this season has.

While I believe it is a 100% certainty that he will be on the 40-man roster to start the season, I think it’s 50/50 that he will get even one game a series for the whole year.

We all know that Miggy won’t retire and leave the money on the table, because duh, and we all are pretty certain that the Tigers would never DFA or otherwise cut him, because that would legitimately make the Tigers organization look bad in the court of public opinion, and would drive a pointless wedge between the player and the team that would last in perpetuity. Chris Ilitch to all appearances is not a smart baseball owner, but he’s definitely smart enough not to uselessly shoot his property in the foot.

I think the Tigers will look for reasons to place Miggy on the IL as early and often as possible next season, and that there’s a very good chance he will end the year on the 60-day list. He will then have his big day at the stadium on October 1, last game of the year against the Guardians; ride off into the sunset in the relative good graces of the fans, the organization, and Baseball; and enter Cooperstown in a Tigers hat in 2029.

Edited September 9, 2022 by chasfh

[Motor City Sonics]

I thought the players picked the hat, but the Hall Of Fame does.   The player can object if they want.  

[oblong]

2 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I thought the players picked the hat, but the Hall Of Fame does.   The player can object if they want.  

The HOF will defer to the player but they reserve the right to override it.  No silly things like wade boggs and the Devil Rays.

 

[RandyMarsh]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Yes, exactly! I’ve been trying to get a grip on my feelings every time I hear that Pujols has hit yet another home run. I knew I wasn’t feeling quite angry or upset, which were way too strong to describe it, but man, you nailed it: it depresses me, mainly because I want to be as happy about it as my Mets fan and Red Sox fan friends are, but I’m not, and I wish I were, which made me feel even worse about it, and I couldn’t quite articulate why.

But you’re totally right: it’s totally depressing to see Pujols, whose record since 2017 through last season (.241/.290/.410, 87 OPS+ in 2,138 PA) was surprisingly far worse than Miggy’s (.264/.335/.401, 99 OPS+ In 1,992 PA), experience this amazing fountain of youth last act, while we Tiger fans know that it is literally completely impossible for Miggy to have that same last hurrah.

GAAAH!

Speaking of Pujols here's a fun fact, he currently has an OPS+ of 139, if that stands for the rest of the year that would be the LOWEST he ever put up in a Cardinal uniform yet would be higher than any number he put up in his 10 years in LA. 

[Tiger337]

On 9/9/2022 at 2:46 PM, RandyMarsh said:

Speaking of Pujols here's a fun fact, he currently has an OPS+ of 139, if that stands for the rest of the year that would be the LOWEST he ever put up in a Cardinal uniform yet would be higher than any number he put up in his 10 years in LA. 

The Cardinals seemed to have picked his spots this year which is smart.  It's not a strict platoon, but he is crushing LHP: .363/.405/.775.  Last year with the Dodgers was similar.   

[casimir]

On 9/8/2022 at 11:43 PM, Tiger337 said:

I have seen that definition of modern baseball most frequently, but is it still widely recognized as such?  The Hall of Fame  considers anything from 1980 forward to be contemporary and anything prior to be classic.  I am also seeing more and more people refer to 1947 as the beginning of the modern era.     

 

On 9/9/2022 at 7:04 AM, buddha said:

i guess you could use 1947 because of jackie robinson.  i would probably put it in the 1920s with ruth and the beginning of the movement away from the cobb era of small ball.

Maybe I am being too much of a stickler, but it seems like if racial integration is used as the beginning of an era of baseball, it would seem like it should come sometime after 1947 and line up with a year that MLB was more fully integrated.  I honestly have no idea when that would be.  But I would think that it took some time after Robinson's debut before baseball's racial makeup was truly integrated and "modern" in terms of racial population.

I guess the other thing is, what do we mean by modern baseball?  If the modern era begins with 1980, that baseball doesn't exactly perfectly resemble current baseball.

Edited September 11, 2022 by casimir

[Tiger337]

Two other possibilities is beginning of divisional play in 1969 and the beginning of wildcards in 1995 (followed quickly by interleague play in 1997).  The process of turning baseball into a generic sport rather one unique from other sports has been a significant change for me.  

[sabretooth]

Here's a sketch for what they could do in 2023

(OPS+, WAR)

Catcher: Haase, Rogers (100, 3) 

1B: Tork (110, 2) 

2B: Schoop (80, 1) 

SS: Baez (100, 2) 

3B: Kriedler/Candy (90, 1.5) g'bye Candy, hello Kriedler

LF: Carpenter (105, 1.5) 

CF: Greene (105, 2) 

RF: Meadows (105, 1.5) - this is a 50/50 shot, depends on lots of unknowns

DH: (could be an IF or OF): Free Agent (115, 3) - really need a good player who can play in the field....anywhere but 1B would work.....C, 2B, SS, 3B, OF

Bench:

- H. Castro, W. Castro, V. Reyes

Coming up in late 2023/2024:

- Dingler (C), Lipcius (3B), W. Perez (2B)

SP:

- E Rod (2 WAR)

- Manning (1.5 WAR)

- Free Agent (2 WAR)

- Free Agent (2 WAR)

The last SP spot would be the various dudes they have floating around (Hutch, Brieske, Faedo, Hill, Wentz, whoever....plus whatever healthy play they can get out of Skubal, Turnbull, Mize, etc.

The bullpen would be whoever they can plug in from this year's team and the minors and cheap FAs to make it work.

They must must must must get TWO **good** Starting Pitchers. No more Pinedas and other junk. These have to be guys who are healthy and can throw 30 starts and more than half of them are Quality Starts (6+ IP/3 Rs or less).

They have to add at least one good bat, hopefully two.

Tork, Greene, Carpenter, Kriedler -- at least three of these guys need to be a "hit"

Manning needs to be a "hit".....they can't have ALL of their starting pitcher prospects from the last 7 years fail.

Skubal needs to come back at some point and be decent or good again.

They need a 50/50 hit ratio on Mize and Turnbull.

When Miggy's contract is subtracted, they are more than $50M **under** the average team payroll. They need to spend ALL of that getting at least three good players.

That can get them into the winning column in 2023 or at least 2024.

It will require spending, player development, health, and luck. These are the usual ingredients for success.

Edited September 11, 2022 by sabretooth

[sabretooth]

The above WAR would add up to about 80+ wins or so depending on the bench (assuming close to zero WAR from the bench), bullpen (assuming 5 WAR), and the quality of the Free Agents (assuming that they get three guys, a position player who produces 3 WAR, and two SPs who produce 4 WAR between them).

[sabretooth]

If guys on the bench are players like H and W Castro and V Reyes, and they play a total of 500-700 PAs (not as regular starters) they could add a couple of WAR.

[casimir]

1 hour ago, sabretooth said:

Here's a sketch for what they could do in 2023

(OPS+, WAR)

Catcher: Haase, Rogers (100, 3) 

1B: Tork (110, 2) 

2B: Schoop (80, 1) 

SS: Baez (100, 2) 

3B: Kriedler/Candy (90, 1.5) g'bye Candy, hello Kriedler

LF: Carpenter (105, 1.5) 

CF: Greene (105, 2) 

RF: Meadows (105, 1.5) - this is a 50/50 shot, depends on lots of unknowns

DH: (could be an IF or OF): Free Agent (115, 3) - really need a good player who can play in the field....anywhere but 1B would work.....C, 2B, SS, 3B, OF

Bench:

- H. Castro, W. Castro, V. Reyes

Coming up in late 2023/2024:

- Dingler (C), Lipcius (3B), W. Perez (2B)

SP:

- E Rod (2 WAR)

- Manning (1.5 WAR)

- Free Agent (2 WAR)

- Free Agent (2 WAR)

The last SP spot would be the various dudes they have floating around (Hutch, Brieske, Faedo, Hill, Wentz, whoever....plus whatever healthy play they can get out of Skubal, Turnbull, Mize, etc.

The bullpen would be whoever they can plug in from this year's team and the minors and cheap FAs to make it work.

They must must must must get TWO **good** Starting Pitchers. No more Pinedas and other junk. These have to be guys who are healthy and can throw 30 starts and more than half of them are Quality Starts (6+ IP/3 Rs or less).

They have to add at least one good bat, hopefully two.

Tork, Greene, Carpenter, Kriedler -- at least three of these guys need to be a "hit"

Manning needs to be a "hit".....they can't have ALL of their starting pitcher prospects from the last 7 years fail.

Skubal needs to come back at some point and be decent or good again.

They need a 50/50 hit ratio on Mize and Turnbull.

When Miggy's contract is subtracted, they are more than $50M **under** the average team payroll. They need to spend ALL of that getting at least three good players.

That can get them into the winning column in 2023 or at least 2024.

It will require spending, player development, health, and luck. These are the usual ingredients for success.

Seems reasonable, but I think you have to include Cabrera at this point.  Now, how many PAs he gets, I don’t know how you factor that.  Call it 400, 2 out of 3 days?  Assume he gets day games after night games off for the most part?  That’s one or two a week.

I guess the issue there is that increases the PAs for the bench, which ideally would be limited as you mentioned.  But that’s just where they are right now.

I think Cabrera factors in next season until he doesn’t.  In other words, don’t assume he’s gone until he is, either by retirement or “retirement”.  I think that’s the conservative approach to take.

[Jim Cowan]

Yes it is easier to construct a roster by pretending that Cabrera won't be here.

[sabretooth]

4 hours ago, casimir said:

Seems reasonable, but I think you have to include Cabrera at this point.  Now, how many PAs he gets, I don’t know how you factor that.  Call it 400, 2 out of 3 days?  Assume he gets day games after night games off for the most part?  That’s one or two a week.

I guess the issue there is that increases the PAs for the bench, which ideally would be limited as you mentioned.  But that’s just where they are right now.

I think Cabrera factors in next season until he doesn’t.  In other words, don’t assume he’s gone until he is, either by retirement or “retirement”.  I think that’s the conservative approach to take.

I think he will unfortunately be in the mix and paid every penny owed in 2023, but I dont think he will change my calculus above, since I am not crediting the bench for any net WAR.  My guess is that Miggy will hang around, eat 250 PA, and likely produce a negative 0.5 - 1.0 WAR, which would cancel out any possible small net positives from Harold or Reyes.

[sabretooth]

3 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

Yes it is easier to construct a roster by pretending that Cabrera won't be here.

I wasnt pretending anything I just didnt factor in every bench players WAR specifically, I netted them to zero to focus on the starters contributions, which are the primary concern.

My anaylsis is based on what needs to be done to make this team respectable in 2023.

If hes a starter then that means the new GM has left a huge gaping hole in the starting lineup and/or theres key injuries and/or breakdowns again....I surely hope thats not the case.

[chasfh]

14 hours ago, sabretooth said:

Here's a sketch for what they could do in 2023

(OPS+, WAR)

Catcher: Haase, Rogers (100, 3) 

1B: Tork (110, 2) 

2B: Schoop (80, 1) 

SS: Baez (100, 2) 

3B: Kriedler/Candy (90, 1.5) g'bye Candy, hello Kriedler

LF: Carpenter (105, 1.5) 

CF: Greene (105, 2) 

RF: Meadows (105, 1.5) - this is a 50/50 shot, depends on lots of unknowns

DH: (could be an IF or OF): Free Agent (115, 3) - really need a good player who can play in the field....anywhere but 1B would work.....C, 2B, SS, 3B, OF

Bench:

- H. Castro, W. Castro, V. Reyes

Coming up in late 2023/2024:

- Dingler (C), Lipcius (3B), W. Perez (2B)

SP:

- E Rod (2 WAR)

- Manning (1.5 WAR)

- Free Agent (2 WAR)

- Free Agent (2 WAR)

The last SP spot would be the various dudes they have floating around (Hutch, Brieske, Faedo, Hill, Wentz, whoever....plus whatever healthy play they can get out of Skubal, Turnbull, Mize, etc.

The bullpen would be whoever they can plug in from this year's team and the minors and cheap FAs to make it work.

They must must must must get TWO **good** Starting Pitchers. No more Pinedas and other junk. These have to be guys who are healthy and can throw 30 starts and more than half of them are Quality Starts (6+ IP/3 Rs or less).

They have to add at least one good bat, hopefully two.

Tork, Greene, Carpenter, Kriedler -- at least three of these guys need to be a "hit"

Manning needs to be a "hit".....they can't have ALL of their starting pitcher prospects from the last 7 years fail.

Skubal needs to come back at some point and be decent or good again.

They need a 50/50 hit ratio on Mize and Turnbull.

When Miggy's contract is subtracted, they are more than $50M **under** the average team payroll. They need to spend ALL of that getting at least three good players.

That can get them into the winning column in 2023 or at least 2024.

It will require spending, player development, health, and luck. These are the usual ingredients for success.

These are essentially the same players we are losing 100 games with right now.

Looks like you might be suggesting the problem isn’t the players themselves, but some combination of bad (current) coaching and bad luck? That an immediately-changed approach to player development and a karma reset can save this crop of guys? Does that basically sum it up?

[JackPine]

16 hours ago, sabretooth said:

Here's a sketch for what they could do in 2023

(OPS+, WAR)

Catcher: Haase, Rogers (100, 3) 

1B: Tork (110, 2) 

2B: Schoop (80, 1) 

SS: Baez (100, 2) 

3B: Kriedler/Candy (90, 1.5) g'bye Candy, hello Kriedler

LF: Carpenter (105, 1.5) 

CF: Greene (105, 2) 

RF: Meadows (105, 1.5) - this is a 50/50 shot, depends on lots of unknowns

DH: (could be an IF or OF): Free Agent (115, 3) - really need a good player who can play in the field....anywhere but 1B would work.....C, 2B, SS, 3B, OF

Bench:

- H. Castro, W. Castro, V. Reyes

Coming up in late 2023/2024:

- Dingler (C), Lipcius (3B), W. Perez (2B)

SP:

- E Rod (2 WAR)

- Manning (1.5 WAR)

- Free Agent (2 WAR)

- Free Agent (2 WAR)

The last SP spot would be the various dudes they have floating around (Hutch, Brieske, Faedo, Hill, Wentz, whoever....plus whatever healthy play they can get out of Skubal, Turnbull, Mize, etc.

The bullpen would be whoever they can plug in from this year's team and the minors and cheap FAs to make it work.

They must must must must get TWO **good** Starting Pitchers. No more Pinedas and other junk. These have to be guys who are healthy and can throw 30 starts and more than half of them are Quality Starts (6+ IP/3 Rs or less).

They have to add at least one good bat, hopefully two.

Tork, Greene, Carpenter, Kriedler -- at least three of these guys need to be a "hit"

Manning needs to be a "hit".....they can't have ALL of their starting pitcher prospects from the last 7 years fail.

Skubal needs to come back at some point and be decent or good again.

They need a 50/50 hit ratio on Mize and Turnbull.

When Miggy's contract is subtracted, they are more than $50M **under** the average team payroll. They need to spend ALL of that getting at least three good players.

That can get them into the winning column in 2023 or at least 2024.

It will require spending, player development, health, and luck. These are the usual ingredients for success.

I wouldn't be shocked to see them rely on Turnbull more and only sign one legit starter and a few more minor league type guys

[Dan Gilmore]

Agreed, one solid SP (not a flawed one) is all I think is reasonable to hope/expect for that part of the team. A BP arm or two. 
 

Getting a RH RF with power (not easy to find) would be high on my list. And moving Meadows to a DH role primarily. If they can really limit Miggy to no more than 300 ABs, maybe he’s slightly healthier and not an empty SLG hole for months at a time. 
 

Other than that, roll with Kreidler, hope Turnbull is back, and generally better team health. Oh, yeah and a good GM.

[casimir]

Giants, Wilmer Flores Agree To Two-Year Extension

So much for that idea.