2022 DETROIT TIGERS REGULAR SEASON THREAD

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, casimir said:

Giants, Wilmer Flores Agree To Two-Year Extension

So much for that idea.

Dang... 

[alex]

Looks like Wilmer Flores may sign a two year ext with SF. Was thinking, along with others here, that he might be a fit. 🤨

 

[alex]

4 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Dang... 

You 'both' (casimir) were on it!

Edited September 12, 2022 by alex

[mtutiger]

11 minutes ago, Dan Gilmore said:

Agreed, one solid SP (not a flawed one) is all I think is reasonable to hope/expect for that part of the team. A BP arm or two. 
 

Getting a RH RF with power (not easy to find) would be high on my list. And moving Meadows to a DH role primarily. If they can really limit Miggy to no more than 300 ABs, maybe he’s slightly healthier and not an empty SLG hole for months at a time. 
 

Other than that, roll with Kreidler, hope Turnbull is back, and generally better team health. Oh, yeah and a good GM.

The big thing is that they have more holes than they can possibly fill in one offseason... we can sit and talk about how we need to get a second starter or a catcher or address other holes, but they kind of have to triage and address the biggest holes first.

The uncertainty at third is the biggest problem on the roster IMO... Kreidler stepping up is helpful, but I dont think they can rely on him alone going into next year. Whether that means bringing back Candy or going to the outside, we shall see.

Edited September 12, 2022 by mtutiger

[bobrob2004]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

The big thing is that they have more holes than they can possibly fill in one offseason... we can sit and talk about how we need to get a second starter or a catcher or address other holes, but they kind of have to triage and address the biggest holes first.

The uncertainty at third is the biggest problem on the roster IMO... Kreidler stepping up is helpful, but I dont think they can rely on him alone going into next year. Whether that means bringing back Candy or going to the outside, we shall see.

I agree with this.  They need to get rid of Schoop and move Baez to 2B and get a SS.  They need to move on from Cabrera.  They need a new 3B, LF, RF and DH.  Maybe Kreidler can fill in at 3B. Maybe Carpenter can fill in at LF.  Maybe Meadows can stay healthy and DH.  Maybe Reyes can fill in at RF.  Maybe none of these work out.   

I want to see big changes in the off-season.  I want to see they new GM make an unexpected trade, like when Dombrowski traded Granderson.  I'm tired of "safe," and predictable moves.

[RandyMarsh]

The SS is strong again this year with Correa, Swanson, Turner and possibly Bogaerts(has an opt out, currently owed 4/80).

Iglesias and Andrus are potential short term answers if you want to move Baez to 2b while still patrolling a half way decent SS until we can hopefully acquire a better long term answer. 

[sabretooth]

11 hours ago, chasfh said:

These are essentially the same players we are losing 100 games with right now.

11 hours ago, chasfh said:

Looks like you might be suggesting the problem isn’t the players themselves, but some combination of bad (current) coaching and bad luck? That an immediately-changed approach to player development and a karma reset can save this crop of guys? Does that basically sum it up?

It's different for each player, though I'm looking at career norms, 2nd half/1st half, peripherals, and projection systems as a guide.

I would love to see a change/improvement in coaching but I'm not counting on it.

I would love to see good luck but my approach basically is to try and eliminate luck factors one way or another.

The changes and causes are detailed below:

C - Haase (same guy, hopefully same results); Rogers ("new" guy v. 2022 anyway, hopefully way better than Barnhart), and hopefully some Dingler is also better than Barnhart in the 2nd half of 2023.

1B - Tork (same guy, hopefully much much much better results) - nobody in their right mind would suggest not giving Tork a shot at playing 1B full-time in 2023.  He has to be the solution there, there is no other option in the system.  The projection is based on what he is/was already projected to do this year.  

2B - Schoop (same guy, hopefully not as terrible results at the plate, and plus defense) - Schoop is under contract, he's going to get a shot, unless they get Correa at SS and shift Baez to 2B, which I would hope for -- however, if they don't chase/catch Correa, given the huge number of holes on the team, I would hope that they get a FA who has the best bat, and other than Correa, that's not in the middle infield.  All the projection systems have Schoop over 90 wRC+ for the balance of the season.  His peripherals are similar to 2018 where he had an 80 wRC+.  I think an 80 wRC+/OPS+ is a reasonable expectation for 2023.  I frankly wouldn't project anybody to repeat what he has done this year (53 wRC+), because I can't imagine him or anybody remaining in the starting lineup for more than the first few weeks of 2023 if he keeps doing that.  I don't honestly know if his 53 wRC+ this year (vs say, 80 or 90) was the result of him permanently "losing it" or temporarily "losing it" or some bad luck or bad coaching or some combination.  I think we will know whether he can continue as a ML player by the middle of April 2023.

SS - Baez (same player, I'm expecting him to look more like the second half of 2022 (95) vs. the first half of 2022 (75)).  Isolating a player's second half, especially when it's close to his career average (101), and assuming that he'll hit 100 is a pretty middle-of-the-road projection.  He might fall back to what he was doing in the 1st half of 2022 vs. the previous 7 years of his career, but I think it's reasonable to assume he'll be closer to his career norms.  He might fade to something closer to 90, but I don't think he will be lower than 90.  Again, my hope is that he will be replaced at SS by Correa and play 2B instead of Schoop, but I'm not counting on it or anything specific at this point.

3B - Kriedler (new player, projecting below-average (80-90) + Candy (same player, projecting better than 77 (90-100) which is actually a little low when you compare to career norms (100), projection systems (100), 2nd half (100) and peripherals, which all point to closer to 100.  He had one bad season before (2019, 73), but otherwise has been at 93 and 120 for his other two full seasons (2018 and 2021), and he's not yet 30, so it's reasonable to project that he will have the skill set to be OK'ish playing a part/semi-regular role in 2023.

 LF - Carpenter (basically a new player, the projection systems have him between 95 - 115, 105 splits the difference).

CF - Greene (kind of a new player, the projection systems have him at 97 - 120, 105 seems reasonable, hard to say with a guy at only 22 years of age).

RF - Meadows (basically a new player, no idea if he will even be healthy, but he's easily capable of 105 if he is healthy, or even 120, which is his career norm....if anything, 105 is conservative if he's healthy).

Not sure what you are seeing from me on the pitching side that seems hopeful.  

The only unrealistic thing I'm showing is two good FA SPs, which I know damn well they won't do, BUT they SHOULD.

In terms of SP who are returning, I'm hoping that Manning and ERod complete 25-30 reasonably decent to good starts next year each.  That would be kinda new guys doing better because ERod is already a good pitcher who missed a huge chunk of 2022 for well-known reasons, and doesn't need better coaching or kharma on the field, and Manning is improving already and is better than his pre-2022 6 ERA would indicate, and hopefully he's healthy enough to complete 25+ starts.

That's perfectly reasonable given that Manning has had an ERA of 4.01 in the second half and solid peripherals, and ERod has certainly demonstrated himself throughout his career of putting up a decent 25-30 starts.  If these two guys can't do at least that, then none of this matters.

Also I'm hoping the bullpen can repeat what it has done this year, which was accomplished without any stars, but rather with the typical poor-man's bullpen of talented guys with control problems and reclaimation projects.  Again, if the bullpen doesn't succeed like that again, any discussion about .500 or better would be pointless.  More to your point, it would involve some or most of the same players and the same coaching and hopefully the same results.

At the end of the day I'm saying that they have enough talent on this team already where if they add 3 good players they can be a 500 team without much stretch at all.

For the record, I would not be surprised to see Schoop and Candy out of baseball by the ASB in 2023, but I would not be surprised to see them do exactly what I have indicated above either, and I don't think either is particularly hopeful at all given the data/projection systems.

Edited September 13, 2022 by sabretooth

[sabretooth]

Essentially I'm saying they are a 70+ win team as currently constituted, if they are reasonably healthy with normal/expected luck.

Add 3 good players and they could easily be within a game or three of 500.   Add only one or two good players and they will probably be in the 75 win range.

[sabretooth]

If they have the same horrible health situation in 2023 that they have had in 2022 and/or their young players fall apart, and/or veterans like erod, baez, schoop, and candy can't play at least decently, then I don't know what to project other than 100 losses again.

[SoCalTiger]

I have no idea what will transpire this off season but I am perfectly fine with Baez and Schoop up the middle. Baez had a bad stretch but seems better and with Tork even more so. Despite his errors he has made many many good plays and the main goal of turning all makable double plays has been achieved and that is huge. Schoop should hit better and his defense it top shelf. Finding two solid bats, OF and 3B and one stud starter might suffice if Tork and Greene settle in and Meadows and Baez perform close to normal levels. But that is still assuming quite  bit.

[RandyMarsh]

Another thing we may have to keep in mind when projecting wins/losses is that the Tigers put up this pathetic win total this year despite the AL Central being atrocious, even more so than expected. What's gonna happen when/if the White Sox bounce back, the Royals and Guardians improve due to their young players and/or strong systems and the Twins can somehow stay healthy? 

 

[Edman85]

3 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Another thing we may have to keep in mind when projecting wins/losses is that the Tigers put up this pathetic win total this year despite the AL Central being atrocious, even more so than expected. What's gonna happen when/if the White Sox bounce back, the Royals and Guardians improve due to their young players and/or strong systems and the Twins can somehow stay healthy? 

 

Don't forget division mates play eachother 14 times a year going forward, down from 19.

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, Edman85 said:

Don't forget division mates play eachother 14 times a year going forward, down from 19.

Also when considering what the Tigers can and can't do next year, better to worry about the things they can control (ie. their roster) than the things they cannot (ie. what other teams in the division might or might not do)

[Tenacious D]

I think the Tigers need to upgrade SS, at least defensively.  I'd like to see the push for Correa, and move Baez to 2B where his throwing issues might not be as pronounced.  With all of the health issues with our starting pitchers, we likely need to go and sign another (please no more upside signings, like Tyson Ross, Julio Teheran, Michael Pineda).  If Chafin goes, we probably should add another veteran to the pen.  Basically, we need to mirror last offseason's free agent signings (SS, SP, RP).

I can only see minimal improvements made via trade--the only trade chips we have are in the mid-minors and haven't been exposed yet (i.e., Jobe, Madden, Keith).  

The guys on the major league roster?  As Dombrowski famously said, "you try and trade 'em."

[gehringer_2]

14 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

but I am perfectly fine with Baez and Schoop up the middle.

Usually guys have bad years because they slump for some period but at least in some other period still show their normal output- but their annual numbers are depressed by the slump period. Schoop hasn't had a single decent stretch all season - I'm afraid he is done. You look at Javy's game logs and he's had some decent runs, and has been near 800 OPS recently. Schoop has done nothing - not one good stretch sufficient to give him even one month at 700 OPS and he has 3 months under 500. 

[sabretooth]

10 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Usually guys have bad years because they slump for some period but at least in some other period still show their normal output- but their annual numbers are depressed by the slump period. Schoop hasn't had a single decent stretch all season - I'm afraid he is done. You look at Javy's game logs and he's had some decent runs, and has been near 800 OPS recently. Schoop has done nothing - not one good stretch sufficient to give him even one month at 700 OPS and he has 3 months under 500. 

Schoop was at 110 wRC+ from May 10 to June 9.  He was absolutely horrible otherwise, and its reasonable to assume hes toast, but he did have a good 30 day period.

[gehringer_2]

37 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Schoop was at 110 wRC+ from May 10 to June 9.  He was absolutely horrible otherwise, and its reasonable to assume hes toast, but he did have a good 30 day period.

hard to figure at only 30 yrs old. Most guys make it to a couple of years older before falling off a cliff like Schoop has. 

Edited September 13, 2022 by gehringer_2

[sabretooth]

5 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

hard to figure at only 30 yrs old. Most guys make it to a couple of years older before falling off a cliff like Schoop has. 

His peripherals are kinda similar to his 80 wRC+ year in 2018.  That's still bad, but it's not career-ending bad if he continues to have plus defense, finishes his last year with us in 2023, and our other guys are doing well.

[sabretooth]

The one big difference in 2022 vs. even his bad 2018 is Schoops HR/FB %, which was 1/2 of his 2018/normal rate. 

If a slower bat and a deader ball caused that, it probably caused the softening of his other non-HR balls in play; if that is the case, then probably *none* of his hitting will come back, and he's toast. 

His entire second half has been worse than the first half, which was also horrible, and he's not showing any signs of life at this point, so perhaps it's safe to assume that he's just toast as a hitter.

The more I mull it over the more I want Schoop to be gone.

We all want them to get Correa, and that would solve Baez's SS issues, and have Schoop on the bench or just DFA him.

[sabretooth]

3 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

I think the Tigers need to upgrade SS, at least defensively.  I'd like to see the push for Correa, and move Baez to 2B where his throwing issues might not be as pronounced.  With all of the health issues with our starting pitchers, we likely need to go and sign another (please no more upside signings, like Tyson Ross, Julio Teheran, Michael Pineda).  If Chafin goes, we probably should add another veteran to the pen.  Basically, we need to mirror last offseason's free agent signings (SS, SP, RP).

I can only see minimal improvements made via trade--the only trade chips we have are in the mid-minors and haven't been exposed yet (i.e., Jobe, Madden, Keith).  

The guys on the major league roster?  As Dombrowski famously said, "you try and trade 'em."

There's some desirable talent but it hasn't manifested itself enough to make for strong trade bait.  Bet you that DD could make a good trade or two out of it all, but he seems to be the only guy with the knack for turning our underpowered prospects into good on-field MLB production.

[chasfh]

Carlos Correa is on record as not wanting to sign with a rebuilding team, so that eliminates the Tigers this winter.

 

[Tiger337]

On 9/12/2022 at 8:50 AM, chasfh said:

These are essentially the same players we are losing 100 games with right now.

Looks like you might be suggesting the problem isn’t the players themselves, but some combination of bad (current) coaching and bad luck? That an immediately-changed approach to player development and a karma reset can save this crop of guys? Does that basically sum it up?

Other possibilities are improvement by young players and better health.  

[Tenacious D]

10 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Carlos Correa is on record as not wanting to sign with a rebuilding team, so that eliminates the Tigers this winter.

 

I doubt the Tigers will position themselves that way.  If they really want to sell him, they will point to the young core that has had some unfortunate injuries and bad luck.  They won't be tearing anything down (or at least I doubt the new GM will overtly do that).  Of course, they will play to his ego, by telling him they will move Baez to 2B to accommodate him, and that he will be an essential part of their quick turnaround.  I don't think their record this year will have any bearing on his decision.  Remember that this is a guy who had to sign a one-year deal last offseason, so he'll follow money and long term security 

[Tiger337]

12 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I doubt the Tigers will position themselves that way.  If they really want to sell him, they will point to the young core that has had some unfortunate injuries and bad luck.  They won't be tearing anything down (or at least I doubt the new GM will overtly do that). 

There really isn't anything to tear down!  The only players worth anything are young players who would be part of a re-build.  

[Jim Cowan]

47 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Carlos Correa is on record as not wanting to sign with a rebuilding team, so that eliminates the Tigers this winter.

 

If the Tigers offer him the most money he'll take it.  He knows, I hope, that nobody thinks he is worth a Lindor contract.