2022 DETROIT TIGERS REGULAR SEASON THREAD

[casimir]

47 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

for our team, I believe Schoop > Candy.  I used to be one of Candy's biggest cheerleaders, but I'm over that shit.  Both have been infuriating, but I think Schoop has the better chance of bouncing back next season.

I think either are capable.  I just don’t know how much I’d gamble on it.

[sabretooth]

14 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

for our team, I believe Schoop > Candy.  I used to be one of Candy's biggest cheerleaders, but I'm over that shit.  Both have been infuriating, but I think Schoop has the better chance of bouncing back next season.

I disagree.....Candy has had two very good periods (July - 150 OPS+ over 75 PAs, and the period of 8/24 to the present - 133 OPS+ over 79 PAs) where he's been excellent, whereas...

....Schoop has had only one decent-ish 30 day period all year from May 10 - June 9 (109 OPS+), and otherwise has sucked, except I guess for a recent 30 at-bat period where he has had 4 EBH, making him suck with a bit of power for a change.  If Schoop keeps doing this for the next week and a half that would be better than horrible, but it would still constitute a rotton and terrible season with only a modest "bump" in the waning days if that were the case.

Candy has had a history of off-again/on-again hitting, so it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him have a decent or even very good 2023 with the bat (120 OPS+) and be a 1.5 - 2.5 WAR player, but I'm not expecting that.  I'm **expecting** average-ish with the bat (100 - 105 OPS+) and below average with the glove, 0.5 - 1.0 WAR if he were to play regularly.

Schoop on the other hand looks like toast, but I think he *could* bounce back.  I am only hoping at this point that he's still excellent with the glove and bounces back to being Brandon Inge circa 2009 - 2010 (87 - 93 OPS+, 1.3 - 1.6 WAR), decent if below average with the bat, above average to excellent with the glove.

[1984Echoes]

Yeah, not certain I understand all this mad-love for Schoop.

If he recovers next year, he's a 1-1.5 WAR player. That's all he is at this point. And to me, that's a garbage starter. If Candy recovers, he's a 3-WAR player, +/- 0.5 WAR. That's at least passable, even if you're looking to improve the position.

Let me rephrase this... I see all the huge emphasis on getting Baez over to 2B next year... is that real? Because Schoop then is an impediment, right? He would need to be dumped, one way or the other? And... just for arguments sake, we get no new IF'ers this off-season (I know that's not what we want, but just follow me here...). So... based on this, I propose the following question (dumping one of either Candy or Schoop) what is everyone's preference:

Schoop 2B, Baez SS, Kreidler 3B, or

Baez 2B, Kreidler SS, Candelario 3B?

I can tell you what my preference is unless you can guess it in under 3 guesses...

[chasfh]

At the point I believe Schoop will hit somewhat better and defend somewhat worse next year, and will end up around 2 WAR, which is passable for a team looking to compete but not yet contend. 

Edited September 28, 2022 by chasfh

[oblong]

are the Castro boys the modern equivalent of the Infantiago duo?

Will harold come back for a swan song in 2025 when the team is contending for a WS title?

[gehringer_2]

33 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Let me rephrase this... I see all the huge emphasis on getting Baez over to 2B next year... is that real?

I get the impression this is a fan concept that doesn't have any foundation in anything the team is saying or doing. By the same token, that contention is not a hill I would die on either.

[Tenacious D]

43 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Yeah, not certain I understand all this mad-love for Schoop.

 

where are you seeing this?  I think any defense of Schoop is damning--just a comparison to Candelario and who is a better fit moving forward.  In an ideal world, we cut both loose.

[Tigermojo]

Yeah dump them both. We'll just replace them with 5 WAR players next year....Magically....

[Tenacious D]

11 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I get the impression this is a fan concept that doesn't have any foundation in anything the team is saying or doing. By the same token, that contention is not a hill I would die on either.

agree--it really is just a fairly obvious and desirable outcome for the next 5 years of Baez' contract.  Anyone who has seen the guy play SS this year recognizes he shouldn't be counted on to be there for the duration of his contract. Now go and sign the guy we should have in the first place, Mr. Harris.

[Tenacious D]

1 minute ago, Tigermojo said:

Yeah dump them both. We'll just replace them with 5 WAR players next year....Magically....

you missed, "ideal world."  Which we're clearly not living in, so at least one of them will likely remain.

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

agree--it really is just a fairly obvious and desirable outcome for the next 5 years of Baez' contract.  Anyone who has seen the guy play SS this year recognizes he shouldn't be counted on to be there for the duration of his contract. Now go and sign the guy we should have in the first place, Mr. Harris.

Regardless of whether we sign Correa or not, or some reasonable facsimile...

If they decide they should move Baez to 2B, then do so. Even if it's 2023 (and not "testing" it in 2022...). Just do it!

But that also means to me: Schoop is out the door and we hold onto Candy for at least this next year as a stopgap...

Which I want anyways because I have a higher belief that Candy will get to a 2.5+ WAR and that Schoop will be 1.5 or (most likely IMO) less next year.

[sabretooth]

If we got 4 WAR out of Schoop and Candy in 2023 I would be happy enough with that.  Then they can leave 🙂

[1984Echoes]

20 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

If we got 4 WAR out of Schoop and Candy in 2023 I would be happy enough with that.  Then they can leave 🙂

At the trade deadline.

Don't even care what we get back...

(something would be better than nothing however...!)

[SoCalTiger]

The difference between Candy and Schoop is we have to pay Schoop and not Candy.  I doubt Kriedler replaces Baez at short even if his bat was MLB ready which it’s not. Rodgers Baez Schoop and Green provides solid up the middle defense and that’s a good start for emerging from the ashes of 2022

[casimir]

Good grief, this team is absolute toast next season and we ain’t even done with this season yet.

[sabretooth]

I fully expect that this new FO will not be keeping guys just to keep them or getting rid of guys just because they had a bad year either....alternatives should be weighed and all I want is the best team on the field in 2023 that doesn't harm our ability to build the best team for 2024 and so on.

If the FO can't do the above then Harris will have failed at his basic function.  I believe he will perform this function well.  

The only thing I am not sure about with Harris (or any GM not named Theo) is whether he can get Chris to put up the $$ for a league-average payroll.  I'm leaning towards "yes" but I have to see it to believe it.

[sabretooth]

And now Manning has "arm fatigue" after a season where he has thrown a total of 85 innings in the minors/majors.  Last year he threw 127 total innings.  202 innings over two years and he has "arm fatigue".

I know eveybody wants to keep harping on the hitting, and it's got big holes, but IMHO we are in far worse shape with the starting pitching for the foreseeable future than any other part of this team/minors/organization. 

SLOT 1:  Eduardo Rodriguez has NEVER been anything remotely approaching reliable in his career to-date, and has only exceeded 157 IP once (2019), and in 2021 and 2022 combined his ERA is about 4.50.  I would cite his lower FIP in 2021 but his strikeouts are **so** far down in 2022 that I wonder what level of pitcher he may be in 2023 if healthy.  You hope for 25 starts, 150 IP, and an ERA below 4.5.

SLOT 2: Matt Manning has only pitched 150 innings in the MLB, has battled arm problems, will be 25 years old in 2023, and now has experienced arm fatigue after a fairly light workload this year.  Can he even make it to 20 starts and 100 IP next year or any year?  His stuff looks good now, but if he cannot stay on the hill, it wont matter.  You hope for 20 starts and a repeat of the below-4 ERA.

SLOT 3: Add one good SP FA for 30 starts, hopefully an ERA below 4.

SLOT 4: you hope that the group of Wentz, Skubal, Turnbull, and Mize in 2023 can cover one spot worth of starts (30-35), but their collective ERA will likely be around or above 4.50 as they test out their recoveries.

SLOT 5 AND EXTRA: Even if the above hoped-for start totals manifest themselves, that would still leave about **55-60 starts** for the AAAA gang (Hutch, Hill, Alexander, Brieske, Norris, Faedo, R. Garcia, etc.) with ERAs collectively above 5.

The above would weight-average to around a 4.5+ ERA for the SPs, which would be what they did this year, good enough for the bottom 10 in the MLB.

Add another good SP for 30 starts and an ERA around 4, to replace 30 starts from the worst of the SLOT 5 guys (with ERAs around 5.5), and you could drop the rotation's ERA by 0.25 - 0.30, good enough to save 30+ runs, 3-4 WAR.

If we wind up getting two FA SPs and we get **really lucky** health/performance wise, we would have chips to trade for better position players.

I don't see them signing more than one FA SP for 2023, but again I say they will likely be forced by events to bring in at least two outside SPs in the next two offseasons in order to build a winning team.

Edited September 29, 2022 by sabretooth

[bobrob2004]

56 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

SLOT 1:  Eduardo Rodriguez has NEVER been anything remotely approaching reliable in his career to-date, and has only exceeded 157 IP once (2019), and in 2021 and 2022 combined his ERA is about 4.50.  I would cite his lower FIP in 2021 but his strikeouts are **so** far down in 2022 that I wonder what level of pitcher he may be in 2023 if healthy.  You hope for 25 starts, 150 IP, and an ERA below 4.5.

And with the banning of the shift, it's going to hurt low strikeout pitchers much more as they rely on the defensive placements of the fielders.  

[sabretooth]

1 minute ago, bobrob2004 said:

And with the banning of the shift, it's going to hurt low strikeout pitchers much more as they rely on the defensive placements of the fielders.  

Very good point.

[mtutiger]

One suspects some of these names may not be in the picture next year lol

[Tenacious D]

3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

One suspects some of these names may not be in the picture next year lol

agree--I see the depth chart as:  Greene > Meadows > Baddoo > Carpenter > Castro > Reyes, with the last two not looking likely.  I don't get hung up on the OF being all LH, as long as we have some balance though out the lineup, which we do with Tork, Haase, Baez, etc.

[Shinzaki]

Manning on the DL with a forearm strain...the precursor to TJ surgery

[RatkoVarda]

Meadows or Carpenter can fake it in RF for 2023? with Greene in CF; and Baddoo, Meadows and Carpenter in LF? That's a really bad defensive OF so not a long term solution. Still want Harris to get a RH power bat for RF, even just Hunter Renfroe or someone like that. Move on from Willi and Reyes.

Parker Meadows (L) may join the mix in 2024 (or late 2023 if things go well).

 

[Tenacious D]

7 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

Meadows or Carpenter can fake it in RF for 2023? with Greene in CF; and Baddoo, Meadows and Carpenter in LF? That's a really bad defensive OF so not a long term solution. Still want Harris to get a RH power bat for RF, even just Hunter Renfroe or someone like that. Move on from Willi and Reyes.

Parker Meadows (L) may join the mix in 2024 (or late 2023 if things go well).

 

I'd bet Harris goes outside of the org to get another outfielder for next season.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Tenacious D

[Jim Cowan]

Willi does not hit well enough to be an outfielder.