Coronavirus: Already In a Neighborhood Near You

[1776]

26 minutes ago, pfife said:

My cousin's got COVID for the second time now.   

Which of course begs the question, if natural immunity works, how did she get it twice?

Not in some conspiracy minded world here but…

I honestly wonder about the validity of results sometimes.

[pfife]

1 minute ago, 1776 said:

Not in some conspiracy minded world here but…

I honestly wonder about the validity of results sometimes.

fair, I remember some news stories about bad batches.    The first run through though she had the classic symptoms too so I think that one was legit, it would be the recent positive I would think was invalid, if any.   It sounds like she has minor symptoms right now that may not be specific to COVID but has tested positive.

[gehringer_2]

32 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I didn't need it.  The knee surgery barely hurt.  The broken arm hurt, but I just took some ibuprofen.  

'Tis but a scratch!

[oblong]

2 minutes ago, pfife said:

fair, I remember some news stories about bad batches.    The first run through though she had the classic symptoms too so I think that one was legit, it would be the recent positive I would think was invalid, if any.   It sounds like she has minor symptoms right now that may not be specific to COVID but has tested positive.

How long ago was the first?  Sometimes it sticks around for tests but you don’t have it and are not contagious.  

[gehringer_2]

16 minutes ago, oblong said:

How long ago was the first?  Sometimes it sticks around for tests but you don’t have it and are not contagious.  

right. Some people harbor the virus or even just residual DNA detritus that will show positive on PCR. So it is certainly theoretically possible to catch a cold 7 months out and then test positive by PCR. Probably pretty rare, but certainly possible based on what they are finding out about how long some people carry the virus. They could maybe do antibody titers to nail it down more certainly but for one person having mild symptoms it's probably not worth the effort.

Edited December 29, 2021 by gehringer_2

[pfife]

16 minutes ago, oblong said:

How long ago was the first?  Sometimes it sticks around for tests but you don’t have it and are not contagious.  

It was a while ago, maybe even over a year ago.

[oblong]

3 minutes ago, pfife said:

It was a while ago, maybe even over a year ago.

Ah.  That said I don’t doubt for a second she is a legit positive. It’s certainly possible.  

[pfife]

I think the CDC is in a real credibility crisis.  Conservatives have been over the CDC for months if not years.   It's really looking to me like the left will be done with them soon too and by extension that's bad for Biden. 

So the center.... does the center still think the CDC has credibility?  

This is so worrisome to me.   Sad downfall of a preeminent organization. 

[Sports_Freak]

26 minutes ago, pfife said:

fair, I remember some news stories about bad batches.    The first run through though she had the classic symptoms too so I think that one was legit, it would be the recent positive I would think was invalid, if any.   It sounds like she has minor symptoms right now that may not be specific to COVID but has tested positive.

I read that some people have different symptoms with this new strain, if that's what she has. More nasal congestion than previous strain. And more children getting sick.. Makes me wonder if new covid strains will get more and more mild? Or if the newly infected will be immune to new virus strains? I sure hope so.

[Sports_Freak]

5 minutes ago, pfife said:

I think the CDC is in a real credibility crisis.  Conservatives have been over the CDC for months if not years.   It's really looking to me like the left will be done with them soon too and by extension that's bad for Biden. 

So the center.... does the center still think the CDC has credibility?  

This is so worrisome to me.   Sad downfall of a preeminent organization. 

I don't know. I sure wouldn't argue with doctors or scientists who have been studying infectious diseases for their entire careers. More people need to realize that these folks aren't/weren't lying to us when they gave us instructions. This is all new to them and they can only work with the data they have at this point. I remember early in the pandemic that people were saying the virus could live on object for up to 28 days. Not true.

[pfife]

I think the issue is on the left is that it looks like a lobbyists influenced decision rather than a public health decision to shorten the quarantine period.

Regardless of the truth of that it seems like they should be out there providing the rationale for the change forcefully.    

It doesn't look good when Delta asks you to shorten it period and then you shorten the period.  If it's otherwise explained they should do so forcefully 

[gehringer_2]

Washtenaw county is now breaking out vaccine+booster in hospital admissions stats. Of the last 475 hospital admissions, 182 were vaccinated, 8 were vaccinated and boosted.

Total cases are going through the roof though - over 100/100K yesterday. And Wash has the highest vax rate in SE MI. If there is such a thing as herd immunity for Omicron it's at a vaccination level we could never have reached under the best of circumstances. Of course if the world had reached herd level for Delta - Omicron might not have emerged. Than again, if Omicron is really closer to the common cold, maybe better that it did. Hard to know which side your bread is buttered on anymore!

Edited December 29, 2021 by gehringer_2

[Tigerbomb13]

My dad has some minor cold symptoms (he is vaccinated and boosted) and is getting tested tomorrow. I would like like to get a PCR test ASAP for peace of mind, but everywhere seems booked out until after New Years. 

[Motor City Sonics]

6 minutes ago, Tigerbomb13 said:

My dad has some minor cold symptoms (he is vaccinated and boosted) and is getting tested tomorrow. I would like like to get a PCR test ASAP for peace of mind, but everywhere seems booked out until after New Years. 

You should email Joe Rogan.  He knows more than any medical "doctor" out there.  

[ewsieg]

1 hour ago, oblong said:

I took Vicodin once and hated how it made me feel. It didn’t dull the pain but made me not care about the pain.  Or anything else. My wife took the bottle to work to dispose of. 

Most times I would only take 1 or 2 pills before dumping the rest in the toilet, if I took any at all.  It dulled the pain a bit for me, but made my stomach upset.  Can't remember what it was, but I was in a lot of pain and for a few days I used them and they worked well, than it felt like I only ate cheese for a week and had to deal with that fallout (or lack thereof rather).

[ewsieg]

23 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Washtenaw county is now breaking out vaccine+booster in hospital admissions stats. Of the last 475 hospital admissions, 182 were vaccinated, 8 were vaccinated and boosted.

Total cases are going through the roof though - over 100/100K yesterday. And Wash has the highest vax rate in SE MI. If there is such a thing as herd immunity for Omicron it's at a vaccination level we could never have reached under the best of circumstances. Of course if the world had reached herd level for Delta - Omicron might not have emerged. Than again, if Omicron is really closer to the common cold, maybe better that it did. Hard to know which side your bread is buttered on anymore!

The stats from Delta regarding efficacy likely meant no herd immunity level for that one either.  Add in the fact there was never a serious push to actually reach herd immunity for the world and we are where we are.  Over time, it was expected to weaken.  The 'what if' was always what if it had a much more severe version prior getting to that point.  With the preliminary info on Omnicron, Delta might have been that 'what if' variant and it wasn't as bad as it could have been.

In terms of admissions, i'd be interested in age/weight breakdown.  Still, that's a crazy high admission rate for vaxxed.

Edited December 29, 2021 by ewsieg

[Mr.TaterSalad]

29 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Washtenaw county is now breaking out vaccine+booster in hospital admissions stats. Of the last 475 hospital admissions, 182 were vaccinated, 8 were vaccinated and boosted.

Total cases are going through the roof though - over 100/100K yesterday. And Wash has the highest vax rate in SE MI. If there is such a thing as herd immunity for Omicron it's at a vaccination level we could never have reached under the best of circumstances. Of course if the world had reached herd level for Delta - Omicron might not have emerged. Than again, if Omicron is really closer to the common cold, maybe better that it did. Hard to know which side your bread is buttered on anymore!

182 were unvaccinated I presume you mean? Edit, that's a high proportion of vaxxed people ending up in the hospital. So basically those numbers, on a micro scale, indicate what we already suspect, we'll be frequently getting boosters.

Edited December 29, 2021 by Mr.TaterSalad

[gehringer_2]

20 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

182 were unvaccinated I presume you mean? Edit, that's a high proportion of vaxxed people ending up in the hospital. So basically those numbers, on a micro scale, indicate what we already suspect, we'll be frequently getting boosters.

no - 182 were vaccinated. 475-182-8 = 285 were the unvaccinated. 

So, the 1st generation of mRNA vaccines do substantially wear down. Whether a next generation vax can be designed with greater staying power remains to be seen. Or another possible outcome is that Covid ends up morphing into a non-dangerous form (like maybe Omicron V2) that keeps circulating widely in the population as a cold and keeps everyone's immunity up against any more dangerous variants that might subsequently emerge here or there.

Edited December 29, 2021 by gehringer_2

[ewsieg]

9 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

So, the 1st generation of mRNA vaccines do substantially wear down. 

I'd caution against this statement.  Maybe word it more specifically, like 1st generation of mRNA vaccine efficacy may wear down or not be as effective against later strains of Covid.  Up until seeing these numbers, the indication I had seen is that the mRNA was still effective against serious illness/hospitalization from this illness.

[pfife]

count me as one that's also taken aback by that 182 number.

[ewsieg]

1 hour ago, pfife said:

I think the issue is on the left is that it looks like a lobbyists influenced decision rather than a public health decision to shorten the quarantine period.

Regardless of the truth of that it seems like they should be out there providing the rationale for the change forcefully.    

I don't disagree with you, but I'm laughing a bit as there have been things the right hasn't gone along with the CDC on and instead of the rationale that the CDC should explain themselves it was just chalked up as the looney right ignoring science.  Now that it doesn't go along with the narrative the left has been sold, well obviously they just need to explain it better.

1 hour ago, pfife said:

It doesn't look good when Delta asks you to shorten it period and then you shorten the period.  If it's otherwise explained they should do so forcefully 

To be fair to the CDC, i'm sure Delta was not the only one asking, just the one publicly asking at a time where the media cares about air travel (holidays) and the CDC made the decision.  My brother (health care facility administration) mentioned that he's seen a push from health care facilities on this for awhile to help get nurses back to work.  Apparently quite a few studies have shown for awhile that the asymptomatic transmission happens in early onset and subsides quickly.  I personally never heard this and I'm only taking his word for it as I'm confident (hopefully rightly) that the CDC isn't just bending to pressure.

Edited December 29, 2021 by ewsieg

[Sports_Freak]

1 hour ago, ewsieg said:

Most times I would only take 1 or 2 pills before dumping the rest in the toilet, if I took any at all.  It dulled the pain a bit for me, but made my stomach upset.  Can't remember what it was, but I was in a lot of pain and for a few days I used them and they worked well, than it felt like I only ate cheese for a week and had to deal with that fallout (or lack thereof rather).

I remember I twisted my ankle really bad several years ago. They gave me vicodin (sp?) and I took one. I got so sick, I called the doctor office. My stomach was VERY upset, I was shivering AND sweating. Horrible. I also have a friend who had foot surgery. The doc didn't want to give him pain meds because he was afraid my friend would mess his foot up if he didn't feel the pain. Makes sense, the doctor didn't want him to reinjure himself by dulling the pain.

[Sports_Freak]

2 hours ago, pfife said:

It doesn't look good when Delta asks you to shorten it period and then you shorten the period.  If it's otherwise explained they should do so forcefully 

The CDC;

[pfife]

31 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

I don't disagree with you, but I'm laughing a bit as there have been things the right hasn't gone along with the CDC on and instead of the rationale that the CDC should explain themselves it was just chalked up as the looney right ignoring science.  Now that it doesn't go along with the narrative the left has been sold, well obviously they just need to explain it better.

To be fair to the CDC, i'm sure Delta was not the only one asking, just the one publicly asking at a time where the media cares about air travel (holidays) and the CDC made the decision.  My brother (health care facility administration) mentioned that he's seen a push from health care facilities on this for awhile to help get nurses back to work.  Apparently quite a few studies have shown for awhile that the asymptomatic transmission happens in early onset and subsides quickly.  I personally never heard this and I'm only taking his word for it as I'm confident (hopefully rightly) that the CDC isn't just bending to pressure.

narrative narrative narrative narrative narrative narrative narrative narrative narrative narrative narrative narrative 

Or maybe it's actually not narrative narrative narrative narrative narrative narrative 

[Kacie]

Honestly, I don't really have an issue with the reduction of the quarantine.  They're not saying if you're coughing and feverish to go to work.  They're saying asymptomatic and a negative test.  I feel like more people will quarantine if it's only 5 days and not 10.  At the same time, I don't know of many in the general public who are getting tested if they are asymptomatic.  

I know of several people who just aren't getting tested because they don't want to miss work or be stuck at home for 10 days.   I'm at the point I really don't know what will work at this point.