oblong Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: I have never understood the appeal of Oprah Winfrey. I understand what she now represents, but I don't get how she became so popular. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, mtutiger said: I don't know what will happen with Biden.... although I think the chances he runs again are significantly higher than the conventional wisdom suggests. Barring a major health problem, I think the chances are very high that he'll run again. Talking about his not running because he is too old doesn't make any sense when the opponent is Trump. He seems to be more physically healthy than Trump. Are we comparing them on cognitive abilities? 😃 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 hours ago, Tiger337 said: yes, it's amazing that I became a Tigah fan. Most educated people learn how to speak with a more neutral accent, but I kept my Massachusetts accent. Best buddy in the Army was from Boston... Couldn't tell... he neutralized his accent. Unless the Celtics were on... then it came out thick and furious... "Bawston Celtics ah on" Larry Bird and Robert Parish and... all of a sudden I couldn't understand half of what he was saying... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 (edited) I don't want Joe Biden to run again, the party needs to new energy and fresh blood at the top. We need someone who can excite and relate to the new Millennial/Gen Z base of the party and finally get them turning out at rates we need to win. I don't want anyone over 75/76 running in 2024 but fear there may be one or more running. I also don't think that Kamala Harris on her own, given her dismal primary performance as a solo candidate, is strong enough to beat Trump or DeSantis. For 2024 both covid and inflation have to be in decline and the economy has to be on the right track. Democrats have to find a way to win back some amount of non-college educated white and hispanic voters. They have to win back Hispanic voters of all ethnic and national origin backgrounds (Columbian, Cuban, Dominican, Mexican, Puerto Rican, Venezuelan, etc.). They have to motive voters of color and black voters from all walks of life and get them turned out. They have to hold suburban voters and keep flipping college-educated suburban woman over to their side. They need Millennial and Gen Z voters to actually turn out in mass for once, especially Millennials who now represent the largest voting age block in the country. I think the Democratic short list for 2024 should begin and end with Michelle Obama because she checks off so many boxes for the party and has the broadest appeal. In the end though, I think the party and Biden rally around Harris out of sheer stupid loyalty and make her the nominee. I think the following candidates will be in play and/or at least could conceivably run for the office. Top Contenders Kamala Harris - I think she would lose to Trump or DeSantis if Biden isn't more popular by 2024, but I think she'll ultimately be the nominee. Michelle Obama - The best candidate to unite all factions of the party and grow the base. Mayor Pete - I think he would lose to Trump or DeSantis if Biden isn't more popular by 2024 Elizabeth Warren - I think she would lose if Biden was seen as moving "too far left" during his Presidency Cory Booker - If he has something inspiring to offer besides trying to re-run the Obama playbook for himself he could win. Sherrod Brown - I believe Sherrod would win if he ran against Trump or DeSantis, but losing the Ohio Senate seat would hurt. Gavin Newsom - I believe Gavin could win if Democratic numbers aren't severely underwater and inflation/covid have receded by then. Second Tier Candidates Amy Klobuchar - MN Senator Gretchen Whitmer - MI Governor Mitch Landrieu - LA Governor Roy Cooper - NC Governor Edited January 7, 2022 by Mr.TaterSalad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Michigan accents are normal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: Nope. Deep south drawl is the worst. 10 minutes to finish one sentence as they drag out each word over a 10-second lazy drawl... Talk about stupid sounding. (OK, I'm exaggerating just a bit... my apologies to our southerners on here... I know that slow of speech doesn't mean slow of mind...). But oh how I hate that southern drawl... As my brother in law says, it's not Southern it's Appalachian Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 15 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: I think if inflation doesn't go down in 2022 and covid doesn't start to dissipate with these new antivirals Democrats chances are cooked for both 2022 and 2024. We saw in Virginia that being "not Trump" or running a January 6th playbook will not work. Most voters are looking forward and care little about what happened yesterday. When they go to the grocery store and pay higher prices for foods, when they pay more at the pump, when their couch takes 3 months to get delivered, they are going to blame that on Biden and the Democrats 1000% Agreed.... while I do think the media frames the economy much more negatively than it actually is at the moment, I cringe every time I see someone online downplay the impact of inflation. Mostly because we see it in our day to day life... makes people seem out of touch. There isn't a lot the executive branch can do about it, but at a minimum, they need to be seen doing something about. They've been doing more of that since about November or so, particularly with backups at the ports, but they were slow out of the gate and it is hurting them. 18 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: What message or platform do Democrats have to even run on at this point? The almost year old American Rescue Plan and . . . what else? The party is literally bankrupt of accomplishments and a message to run on. Combine that with high inflation, covid, rising crime, and culture war issues like CRT and defund the police and I think a 2010 style beating is coming the Democrats way. This time, with all the changes to election laws and gerrymandering, I think it is a good decade before Democrats see power in this country again. If we fall into Trump-style authoritarianism than Democrats may never see power again and democracy will have been lost. I mean, they did pass BIF. Which is, despite how the left of the party feels about the bill, is pretty popular with the general public as a whole. Overall, they've done a lot considering the absolutely minimal margins they have in the Senate.... had Ossoff/Warnock not won, there'd be way more to complain about. Of course, that's a hard sell to people who don't follow this stuff closely, but that is the lay of the land regardless. In terms of the House, unless a miracle happens, they are gonna lose it in 2022 regardless, although because of how redistricting has played out and the fact that 2010 happened in part because Obama helped expand the map into districts that Ds had no business winning, I doubt it approaches the 63 lost seats that happened in 2010. Probably more like 40-45 in the worst case scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Michelle may be the dream candidate, but by all accounts, she doesn't want the job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hongbit Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 33 minutes ago, buddha said: i might go so far to say trump is the favorite right now, but youre right that it is waaaaaay too early. i dont see biden running again. i HOPE he doesnt. he's too old. but im not sure who else the democrats would run? harris seems a very weak choice. and i'm beginning to think trump will run, if for nothing else than the attention and money he'll make himself. I don’t think Trump really wants to be President again as much as he wants to see how much in campaign money he can siphon into his and his friends pockets from the red hat morons . He made billions the first time through and they were all figuring it out as they went. This time they have experience and he can really get his grift on. I don't think 11 figures is out of the realm for what they can make off the 2024 election. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 9 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: I don't want Joe Biden to run again, the party needs to new energy and fresh blood at the top. We need someone who can excite and relate to the new Millennial/Gen Z base of the party and finally get them turning out at rates we need to win. I don't want anyone over 75/76 running in 2024 but fear there may be one or more running. I also don't think that Kamala Harris on her own, given her dismal primary performance as a solo candidate, is strong enough to beat Trump or DeSantis. For 2024 both covid and inflation have to be in decline and the economy has to be on the right track. Democrats have to find a way to win back some amount of non-college educated white and hispanic voters. They have to win back Hispanic voters of all ethnic and national origin backgrounds (Columbian, Cuban, Dominican, Mexican, Puerto Rican, Venezuelan, etc.). They have to motive voters of color and black voters from all walks of life and get them turned out. They have to hold suburban voters and keep flipping college-educated suburban woman over to their side. They need Millennial and Gen Z voters to actually turn out in mass for once, especially Millennials who now represent the largest voting age block in the country. I think the Democratic short list for 2024 should begin and end with Michelle Obama because she checks off so many boxes for the party and has the broadest appeal. In the end though, I think the party and Biden rally around Harris out of sheer stupid loyalty and make her the nominee. I think the following candidates will be in play and/or at least could conceivably run for the office. Top Contenders Kamala Harris - I think she would lose to Trump or DeSantis if Biden isn't more popular by 2024, but I think she'll ultimately be the nominee. Michelle Obama - The best candidate to unite all factions of the party and grow the base. Mayor Pete - I think he would lose to Trump or DeSantis if Biden isn't more popular by 2024 Elizabeth Warren - I think she would lose if Biden was seen as moving "too far left" during his Presidency Cory Booker - If he has something inspiring to offer besides trying to re-run the Obama playbook for himself he could win. Sherrod Brown - I believe Sherrod would win if he ran against Trump or DeSantis, but losing the Ohio Senate seat would hurt. Gavin Newsom - I believe Gavin could win if Democratic numbers aren't severely underwater and inflation/covid have receded by then. Second Tier Candidates Amy Klobuchar - MN Senator Gretchen Whitmer - MI Governor Mitch Landrieu - LA Governor Roy Cooper - NC Governor I hope to hell we aren't relying on Millennials to vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Michelle may be the dream candidate, but by all accounts, she doesn't want the job. Also, she's been a zero in politics previously. She may be an inspirational candidate, but I heartily disagree she's the dream candidate. Oprah is just as qualified. And their qualifications are the same as Donald Trump. = Zero. Not interested. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, Hongbit said: I don’t think Trump really wants to be President again as much as he wants to see how much in campaign money he can siphon into his and his friends pockets from the red hat morons . He made billions the first time through and they were all figuring it out as they went. This time they have experience and he can really get his grift on. I don't think 11 figures is out of the realm for what they can make off the 2024 election. That and he gets the additional benefit of constant attention. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 15 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: As my brother in law says, it's not Southern it's Appalachian Yeah I don't understand the nuances of a Texas drawl versus a Georgian drawl versus an Appalachian drawl... Southern is probably a catch-all for me but I'm certain there are some variations by region... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archie Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 17 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: I don't want Joe Biden to run again, the party needs to new energy and fresh blood at the top. We need someone who can excite and relate to the new Millennial/Gen Z base of the party and finally get them turning out at rates we need to win. I don't want anyone over 75/76 running in 2024 but fear there may be one or more running. I also don't think that Kamala Harris on her own, given her dismal primary performance as a solo candidate, is strong enough to beat Trump or DeSantis. For 2024 both covid and inflation have to be in decline and the economy has to be on the right track. Democrats have to find a way to win back some amount of non-college educated white and hispanic voters. They have to win back Hispanic voters of all ethnic and national origin backgrounds (Columbian, Cuban, Dominican, Mexican, Puerto Rican, Venezuelan, etc.). They have to motive voters of color and black voters from all walks of life and get them turned out. They have to hold suburban voters and keep flipping college-educated suburban woman over to their side. They need Millennial and Gen Z voters to actually turn out in mass for once, especially Millennials who now represent the largest voting age block in the country. I think the Democratic short list for 2024 should begin and end with Michelle Obama because she checks off so many boxes for the party and has the broadest appeal. In the end though, I think the party and Biden rally around Harris out of sheer stupid loyalty and make her the nominee. I think the following candidates will be in play and/or at least could conceivably run for the office. Top Contenders Kamala Harris - I think she would lose to Trump or DeSantis if Biden isn't more popular by 2024, but I think she'll ultimately be the nominee. Michelle Obama - The best candidate to unite all factions of the party and grow the base. Mayor Pete - I think he would lose to Trump or DeSantis if Biden isn't more popular by 2024 Elizabeth Warren - I think she would lose if Biden was seen as moving "too far left" during his Presidency Cory Booker - If he has something inspiring to offer besides trying to re-run the Obama playbook for himself he could win. Sherrod Brown - I believe Sherrod would win if he ran against Trump or DeSantis, but losing the Ohio Senate seat would hurt. Gavin Newsom - I believe Gavin could win if Democratic numbers aren't severely underwater and inflation/covid have receded by then. Second Tier Candidates Amy Klobuchar - MN Senator Gretchen Whitmer - MI Governor Mitch Landrieu - LA Governor Roy Cooper - NC Governor Out of the people you listed I think Sherrod Brown would be the best candidate. He has experience and the knowledge. Harris was a not a good candidate for POTUS and she's done nothing so far as VP to change that. And lets be honest, she is VP because of her skin color and sex. Warren is not and has not been a legitimate candidate either. She just seems too batshit crazy most of the time. Newsome might not even be able to win his Governors seat if he goes after it. He is not liked by many people. Mayor Pete is another inexperience and do nothing guy. I put him and Harris in the same category. Michelle Obama is just a no for all the same reasons that Oprah would be a no. She has no experience and would be Biden and Trump all over again. The dems best shot in 2024 could be a ticket of Brown and Whitmer as VP or someone like that. At least it would be a 1,000 times better than what we have now. This country deserves far better candidates than we've given the last two elections. We have to stop catering to these special interest groups and nominate the best candidates no matter their race, sex or sexual orientation. None of that makes a good or bad POTUS and is meaningless to the office. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 (edited) In terms of Biden's predecessor as standard bearer (whether it's 2024 or 2028), the challenge remains that the Democratic Party, structurally, is just a lot different than the GOP. Where the GOP currently is more rigid in terms of ideology and in terms of bent (ie. toward Trump), the Democrats are a much more factionalized group made up of different coalitions who don't always agree on every issue. Just inherently, the challenges of uniting the Democratic Party are just bigger. People like to downplay the strength of Biden's win in 2020 (ie. anybody could have beaten Trump, didn't beat him by enough, etc.), but his win was probably in no small part because he was the only candidate who could pull enough support from each of those disparate groups within the Democratic coalition to get it done. In particular, states like Arizona and Wisconsin were so close that you could point to multiple parts of that coalition (ie. suburbanites, young voters, Hispanics) who made the difference in the end. And Biden also doesn't get enough credit for how he leveraged his relationship with some of his rivals from the campaign (particularly Bernie Sanders) in order to get his full support and effort in the general election. So, the question I have is, if not Biden, who else can replicate that in 2024? Who is that person? I agree that Harris hasn't sold me on that question (on paper she looks good, but just haven't seen it in practice), but whoever they nominate is going to have to be nimble enough to keep all groups in the coalition happy enough. And I don't know who that person is at that point.... Edited January 7, 2022 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 17 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: I hope to hell we aren't relying on Millennials to vote. It's a fact of life, we (I am one) are the biggest voting block in America now. At someone point Dems need to get Millennials and Gen Z out to vote or they will get swamped by what Boomers remain and Gen X'ers who have moved over to the right. Millennials aren't that young anymore and you should start to see their voting numbers increase in the next several cycles. Democrats also have to give them a reason to show up and vote for their candidates. That means more Millennial candidates and more candidates who reflect our values. The party and its voting base is where it is. We have to move to the left to court Millennial/Gen Z voters and reflect there values, while still balancing out where the rest of the country is at. I think the divide between Millennials and their parents is as sharp a generational divide as ever. Democrats need to walk this line and get them out to vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, mtutiger said: In terms of Biden's predecessor as standard bearer (whether it's 2024 or 2028), the challenge remains that the Democratic Party, structurally, is just a lot different than the GOP. Where the GOP currently is more rigid in terms of ideology and in terms of bent (ie. toward Trump), the Democrats are a much more factionalized group made up of different coalitions who don't always agree on every issue. Just inherently, the challenges of uniting the Democratic Party are just bigger. People like to downplay the strength of Biden's win in 2020 (ie. anybody could have beaten Trump, didn't beat him by enough, etc.), but his win was probably in no small part because he was the only candidate who could pull enough support from each of those disparate groups within the Democratic coalition to get it done. In particular, states like Arizona and Wisconsin were so close that you could point to multiple parts of that coalition (ie. suburbanites, young voters, Hispanics) who made the difference in the end. And Biden also doesn't get enough credit for how he leveraged his relationship with some of his rivals from the campaign (particularly Bernie Sanders) in order to get his full support and effort in the general election. So, the question I have is, if not Biden, who else can replicate that in 2024? Who is that person? I agree that Harris hasn't sold me on that question (on paper she looks good, but just haven't seen it in practice), but whoever they nominate is going to have to be nimble enough to keep all groups in the coalition happy enough. And I don't know who that person is at that point.... We know who that person is and her last name is Obama. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: It's a fact of life, we (I am one) are the biggest voting block in America now. At someone point Dems need to get Millennials and Gen Z out to vote or they will get swamped by what Boomers remain and Gen X'ers who have moved over to the right. Millennials aren't that young anymore and you should start to see their voting numbers increase in the next several cycles. Democrats also have to give them a reason to show up and vote for their candidates. That means more Millennial candidates and more candidates who reflect our values. The party and its voting base is where it is. We have to move to the left to court Millennial/Gen Z voters and reflect there values, while still balancing out where the rest of the country is at. I think the divide between Millennials and their parents is as sharp a generational divide as ever. Democrats need to walk this line and get them out to vote. I thought Republicans holding a Supreme Court seat hostage would be enough to get Millennials out but I was wrong. Millennials will have to deal with a conservative Supreme Court for most of their adult life now. Sorry, not counting on them anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: We know who that person is and her last name is Obama. She's not running. They'll have to find one from the pool of people who would actually want the job.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2024 is a long time away and a lot can happen. While I love Michelle as a former first lady, I wonder why she would want to run. Personally I think she can be more successful as an influencer without the hassle of running for office. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 35 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Agreed.... while I do think the media frames the economy much more negatively than it actually is at the moment, I cringe every time I see someone online downplay the impact of inflation. Mostly because we see it in our day to day life... makes people seem out of touch. There isn't a lot the executive branch can do about it, but at a minimum, they need to be seen doing something about. They've been doing more of that since about November or so, particularly with backups at the ports, but they were slow out of the gate and it is hurting them. I mean, they did pass BIF. Which is, despite how the left of the party feels about the bill, is pretty popular with the general public as a whole. Overall, they've done a lot considering the absolutely minimal margins they have in the Senate.... had Ossoff/Warnock not won, there'd be way more to complain about. Of course, that's a hard sell to people who don't follow this stuff closely, but that is the lay of the land regardless. In terms of the House, unless a miracle happens, they are gonna lose it in 2022 regardless, although because of how redistricting has played out and the fact that 2010 happened in part because Obama helped expand the map into districts that Ds had no business winning, I doubt it approaches the 63 lost seats that happened in 2010. Probably more like 40-45 in the worst case scenario. I forgot about the BIF in my initial post. Unless people see the effects of the BIF right away in-terms of shovel ready projects, broadband access being turned on in rural/urban areas, roads being fixed, etc. it won't matter Democrats won't be able to sell a bill that doesn't have immediate impacts like the Child Tax Credit did/does or like BBB could if they pass it. The other thing Democrats need to do is go for broke and just start branding Republican candidates as authoritarian dictators who want to strip away your right to vote. I know I just previously said that a rerun of January 6th won't work, and it won't. But if you are going down, go down swinging, scratching, and clawing until the end. Democrat's need to let the American people know that one party is no longer interested in allowing them to vote or their vote counting. White folks, black folks, Christian, Jewish, Muslim, they want to cancel voting in this country. You talk about the cancel culture argument, that's the playbook Democrats need to hit Republican's with, only on the right to vote. Cancel culture comes to the voting booth because Republican no longer believe in free and fair elections and want to cancel out your right to vote. They won't win on that message, but they can get in a few good blows on the way down to damage the GOP brand further hopefully. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Unless Biden is dead, he's running again. Incumbents, despite Trump's loss, always have an advantage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 (edited) 10 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: 2024 is a long time away and a lot can happen. While I love Michelle as a former first lady, I wonder why she would want to run. Unless she wants to be governed by the American version of Viktor Orban and Vlad Putin again and watch us slip into being run by an autocratic regime, she may not have a choice. Can't do much influencing from jail or a labor camp. Edited January 7, 2022 by Mr.TaterSalad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said: Unless Biden is dead, he's running again. Incumbents, despite Trump's loss, always have an advantage. Except for H.W. Bush's loss and Carter's loss and Ford's loss and LBJ deciding not to run again because he wouldn't win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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