Shades of Deivi Cruz Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 https://special.usps.com/testkits For ordering your four free antigen kits. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RatkoVarda Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 hours ago, Edman85 said: Why April 19? Does extending to earlier in April ruin the narrative? That's got arbitrary endpoint written all over it. The chart to me seems to be suggesting to me anyways that was the date where they made vaccines available to all adults as opposed to some prioritization of folks in greater need? I got mine in late March and did some shady going to Ohio when I live in Michigan stuff to get it so maybe that works out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 (edited) 4 hours ago, oblong said: Asshattery on 1st Street. All I can hope is that this kind of juvenile conservative performance modeling helps drive Roberts further from the conservative camp. Edited January 18, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I think that is the date things kinda changed. https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210420/all-us-adults-eligible-covid-vaccines Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 But it takes up to 6 weeks from first dose to get full immunity, maybe an extra week or two for a reasonable person to find an appointment. Once infected, a week or two to be hospitalized, and a month or two from there to start dying. You would start to see partisan divide from unvaccinated people in July or so, and that doesn't even factor in the seasonality effect that any end point will not factor in. Long story short, I know that there is a partisan divide among covid deaths since the vaccine has been available. A chart from a partisan source isn't a convincing way to show that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 (edited) 46 minutes ago, Edman85 said: But it takes up to 6 weeks from first dose to get full immunity, maybe an extra week or two for a reasonable person to find an appointment. Once infected, a week or two to be hospitalized, and a month or two from there to start dying. You would start to see partisan divide from unvaccinated people in July or so, and that doesn't even factor in the seasonality effect that any end point will not factor in. Long story short, I know that there is a partisan divide among covid deaths since the vaccine has been available. A chart from a partisan source isn't a convincing way to show that. I don't think I'm totally following your concern with this specific one though b/c I think your concern doesn't change the overall number of deaths but merely whether it's in the grey box or black box? Personally I feel the policy date change is more apt than a nebulous date of [policy change date + 1 week for reasonable person + one or two months from there]. That strikes me as more arbitrary than the actual definitive policy change date. Edited January 18, 2022 by pfife Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 (edited) If the policy change date itself is arbitrary, wouldn't any date derived by adding X number of days to it be just as arbitrary but with X days added to it? Edited January 18, 2022 by pfife Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Ideally, you'd want to know what was happening at all points in time: Before the policy change, during the response lag and after the response lag. Maybe some kind of interrupted time series. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 (edited) 45 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Ideally, you'd want to know what was happening at all points in time: Before the policy change, during the response lag and after the response lag. Maybe some kind of interrupted time series. yeah that would make sense. I guess from the standpoint we use at my job which isn't academic rigor - it's rigorous enough to use as a valuable piece of information in a larger business decision. From that standpoint, I would totally do the date of policy change as the cutoff b/c it's NOT arbitrary - it's when the policy changed. When I start adding days to that, I then DO have to demonstrate why I selected 7 days for appointment setting instead of 8,9,10,15, etc. Then I also have to demonstrate why I added 1 or 2 months to that for immunity to kick in and why did I select 1 month and not 2 months or should it have been 1.653 months? Should it be the same for every single person? Do I need to research whether a state was slow with their appointment setting systems and change the values for just that state? Why does one state get a special value but others don't? Etc etc. Edited January 18, 2022 by pfife 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 This one from NYT was good: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: 90% of india is vaxxed. lol. yeah right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 18 minutes ago, buddha said: 90% of india is vaxxed. lol. yeah right. Hard to accept that India may be better organized and socially coherent that the US isn't it? It's probably not your father's India anymore, and it certainly isn't our fathers' US! The bigger weakness in the Indian achievement is likely not the numbers claim but that they have used a lot of what is probably not very effective vaccine stock - having relied initially on Russian and other less well performing products. It looks like one big stick they used was that they made vaccination mandatory to get on a train. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: Hard to accept that India may be better organized and socially coherent that the US isn't it? It's probably not your father's India anymore, and it certainly isn't our fathers' US! The bigger weakness in the Indian achievement is likely not the numbers claim but that they have used a lot of what is probably not very effective vaccine stock - having relied initially on Russian and other less well performing products. It looks like one big stick they used was that they made vaccination mandatory to get on a train. g2, india is not 90% vaxxed. india is an unorganized mess of 1.5 billion people, getting 1.2 billion people vaxxed in a country as bass akward as india is impossible. come on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Interesting that Brazil, whose president is a loudmouth far-right extremist, is 88% vaccinated. Hmm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 From the link regarding India: *Note: In India, the sample is representative of just the literate population. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 (edited) 21 minutes ago, buddha said: g2, india is not 90% vaxxed. india is an unorganized mess of 1.5 billion people, getting 1.2 billion people vaxxed in a country as bass akward as india is impossible. come on. I have no independent data but I don't see any great push back about India's claims. Why can't people who are poor be socially organized? India has a huge pharma industry and a well developed public health infrastructure. Certainly fair to question a Modi government but I wouldn't be at all surprised if India has achieved a higher vax rate than the US. Edited January 19, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 Apologies if this was posted here last week because I don’t remember seeing it, but: my new favorite news anchors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/macomb-county/2022/01/18/covid-19-levels-dropping-macomb-county-sewage-water-county-says/6567829001/ Macomb does sewage testing which they say is a week or two ahead of cases... they are showing levels "dropping sharply". Spike began Dec 29. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 22 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: I have no independent data but I don't see any great push back about India's claims. Why can't people who are poor be socially organized? India has a huge pharma industry and a well developed public health infrastructure. Certainly fair to question a Modi government but I wouldn't be at all surprised if India has achieved a higher vax rate than the US. https://ycharts.com/indicators/india_coronavirus_full_vaccination_rate 47% fully vaxxed. less partially vaxxed, fully vaxxed, and boosted than the us. i know you have this dim view of america (familiarity breeds contempt...), but the us is better organized than most countries in the world, and that includes india. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 and you still have time to claim your great bloomberg offer...lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I don't think anyone is disputing the US is plenty organized on the vaccine. In fact, the US is probably the most organized. The issue is the unwillingness to get vaccinated despite it being easily available and free. I don't doubt that India has a much lower unwillingness to get the vaccine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 13 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said: I don't think anyone is disputing the US is plenty organized on the vaccine. In fact, the US is probably the most organized. The issue is the unwillingness to get vaccinated despite it being easily available and free. I don't doubt that India has a much lower unwillingness to get the vaccine. that article states india has many of the same issues as america (and other countries) in distrust of their government and unwillingness to get the vaccine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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