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Cleanup in Aisle Lunatic (h/t romad1)


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Posted
  On 11/3/2021 at 1:21 AM, mtutiger said:

I wouldn't entirely trust the exit polls, tbh.

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I don't either, but in a state that Biden won by 10, either Biden voters sat this one out or there was a huge swing over to Youngkin or a combination of both. 

I'm just so sick of Democrats not showing up, then all hell breaks loose, and they come out only to snooze again. 

Posted
  On 11/3/2021 at 1:23 AM, gehringer_2 said:

I wonder if Va will scare the Dem Congressional caucus in DC into cooperating a little better? Probably not.

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Probably not.

I am curious to see what kinda swings we see in New Jersey now... does Murphy do a little better than McCauliffe relative to the states lean?

Posted
  On 11/3/2021 at 1:24 AM, Motown Bombers said:

I don't either, but in a state that Biden won by 10, either Biden voters sat this one out or there was a huge swing over to Youngkin or a combination of both. 

I'm just so sick of Democrats not showing up, then all hell breaks loose, and they come out only to snooze again. 

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It was mostly persuasion. The fact that the swing was largely uniform in all parts of the state kinda has me convinced on that 

Posted
  On 11/3/2021 at 1:49 AM, Motown Bombers said:

The New Jersey race is not looking good. Still a likely Democratic win but not a big win. 

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The lead will widen out some from where it is at the moment.

They are two different races, and its flawed, but I am curious to see a comparison to tell how much of what happened in VA was national environment and how much was candidate quality.

Posted
  On 11/3/2021 at 1:57 AM, mtutiger said:

The lead will widen out some from where it is at the moment.

They are two different races, and its flawed, but I am curious to see a comparison to tell how much of what happened in VA was national environment and how much was candidate quality.

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538 is predicting high single digits when Biden won the state by 16. It's certainly doesn't seem like a dominating win. 

Posted (edited)
  On 11/3/2021 at 2:00 AM, Motown Bombers said:

538 is predicting high single digits when Biden won the state by 16. It's certainly doesn't seem like a dominating win. 

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Right, but that would be a smaller swing than what happened in Virginia over 2020. 

Again, it's an imperfect comparison to qualify how much candidate quality may have impacted Virginia. 

Edited by mtutiger

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