Cleanup in Aisle Lunatic (h/t romad1)

[romad1]

My strong opinion is that we need to redress whatever confidence building measures (CBM) we have with China and establish non-insulting means of communicating between the powers.  

 

[Screwball]

I'm kind of shocked at what I read here, re; the balloon.

IF, this was a China spy balloon... Let's start there.

What are they doing this for if they can see all they want to see on Google Earth or Tic Tock?

Resolution, taking advantage of distance and speed. Lower, slower vs. satellite images from much further away. We know almost every country of the war machine has geosynchronous satellites reading our every move. But they are watching from space. With a balloon, you can get much more detailed images. Think of a drone and the cameras they use today. Incredible what they can see, and for not much money. Even Cornhole cops have a drone that can read a license plate from a quarter of a mile away.

Then there is thermal imaging. A spy satellite miles in space can't use that technology to see where the hot spots might be - but not at this detail they would get from a balloon.  AKA; targets.  If you poke around on Google maps, which is quite handy for planning a trip because you can visit before you go, we ain't playing with the same shit. Places are blurred out, no street view, etc. Even homes of the ruling class. They are not going to give us that stuff, and they would be really really stupid if they did, national security and all.

What I'm not sure about is if China did this on purpose, what do they have to gain?

Edited February 7, 2023 by Screwball

[gehringer_2]

16 minutes ago, Screwball said:

What I'm not sure about is if China did this on purpose, what do they have to gain?

I bet we give dictatorships too much credit for having their shit together sometimes. Just because a guy like Xi is the ultimate authority on everything and anything, doesn't mean he has a clue about everything going on in his government - no one person ever could. I would guess the truth is their bureaucracy probably works a lot worse even than ours- so you probably have all kind of PLA brass running around with their own bankrolls and pet schemes and you end up with stuff like this.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, Screwball said:

I'm kind of shocked at what I read here, re; the balloon.

 

Why are you shocked?  Not everyone knows how google earth and balloons work.  There might even be things about the world that you don't know.  Thanks for your response though.  

[Screwball]

40 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I bet we give dictatorships too much credit for having their shit together sometimes. Just because a guy like Xi is the ultimate authority on everything and anything, doesn't mean he has a clue about everything going on in his government - no one person ever could. I would guess the truth is their bureaucracy probably works a lot worse even than ours- so you probably have all kind of PLA brass running around with their own bankrolls and pet schemes and you end up with stuff like this.

We don't know and it doesn't matter. There are no black swans. Everything happens for a reason. Plan accordingly.

At this point, I see no reason for China to start bullshit with us - they need us economically - for now.

[Screwball]

Just now, Tiger337 said:

Why are you shocked?  Not everyone knows how google earth and balloons work.  There might even be things about the world that you don't know.  Thanks for your response though.  

I thought it was common sense. Stupid me.

[Tiger337]

55 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I bet we give dictatorships too much credit for having their shit together sometimes. Just because a guy like Xi is the ultimate authority on everything and anything, doesn't mean he has a clue about everything going on in his government - no one person ever could.

That would be like excpecting our presidents to know everything that is going on!

Edited February 7, 2023 by Tiger337

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, Screwball said:

I thought it was common sense. Stupid me.

It's just amusing that you complain that people are condescending to you because you're a "hick from Cornhole" and then you are condescending to everyone else.  I don't think anyone here views you as a "dumb hick".  You're a smart guy who happens to live in a rural area.       

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, Screwball said:

What are they doing this for if they can see all they want to see on Google Earth or Tic Tock?

I would assume there are ulterior motives until given a reason to believe otherwise.

My comment about TikTok is more the fact that, in terms of national security threat, the fact that millions download and use that app bothers me more than the balloon does. 

[Tiger337]

Google earth also uses balloons.

https://www.pcworld.com/article/470020/google_earth_adds_balloon_kite_imagery.html

Maybe not as good as the Chinese balloons, but who knows?  This was 11 years ago.  

[gehringer_2]

7 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Google earth also uses balloons.

https://www.pcworld.com/article/470020/google_earth_adds_balloon_kite_imagery.html

Maybe not as good as the Chinese balloons, but who knows?  This was 11 years ago.  

Same Chinese manufacturer probably made those balloons for Google ten years ago....

[romad1]

Whats interesting is that the US has done some amazing things with parachutes -- not balloons

How do you deploy hundreds of standoff ship killers at once from over the horizon against a cocky near-peer competitor who wants to expand into the country that makes the most computer chips and the most bicycles?

Go to the 3min mark for the money shot.

 

Edited February 7, 2023 by romad1

[Motor City Sonics]

I think China is doing it just to fuck with us.   I think they can learn all they need to with the satellites, and they have more control over those.   This is basically a middle finger

[romad1]

1 minute ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I think China is doing it just to fuck with us.   I think they can learn all they need to with the satellites, and they have more control over those.   This is basically a middle finger

we ain't so helpless as all that.

[ewsieg]

11 hours ago, oblong said:

I'm sure during the awesome transition between admins from election day until Jan 20 the topic was discussed. The Trump folks at the Pentagon all seemed like stand up people who would gladly share information with the new guys about embarassing information.

This is probably true, 2019 - January 2021 Mark Milley was the most corrupt, seditious chairman of the JCOS.  Luckily he had a come to Jesus moment around Noon on January 20th 2021 and has been the most transparent, best chairman of the JCOS we've ever had in this country.

[romad1]

5 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

This is probably true, 2019 - January 2021 Mark Milley was the most corrupt, seditious chairman of the JCOS.  Luckily he had a come to Jesus moment around Noon on January 20th 2021 and has been the most transparent, best chairman of the JCOS we've ever had in this country.

I don't think you have this correct.  

[ewsieg]

Just now, romad1 said:

I don't think you have this correct.  

My only point is that much of the core of the FBI, Intelligence agencies, our defense, are built around career men and women that have worked in those fields for decades.  Without a doubt, putting a political appointee to head or oversee an organization can damage it, but the core folks are likely people trying to do their best job.  

So an argument built on partisan beliefs that of course these same departments might have been so inept just because Trump was POTUS, but somehow they magically figured out how to do their jobs once your guy is in office is a little silly.

By no means do I think these 'shoot it down' politicians that came out this weekend to try and show they were tough on China had any reasonable argument and were grandstanding.  Conversely though, the 'OMG, it's just a balloon, what are you going to do, shoot it with your six shooter, everything was done perfectly' politicians are shooting from the hip themselves.  

I'm not going to pretend I know what the right choice was and I'm willing to believe that informed people weighed in on the situation and the president made his call on that.  But I certainly would like to know what we think China was trying to do, rather than simply join a side based on who is currently in office, mock the other side, and move on.

[gehringer_2]

23 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

But I certainly would like to know what we think China was trying to do,

I imagine the answer to that is mostly to see what they can get away with, and gather intelligence from how and with what hardware and what methods the US responds. Low cost, low risk. Conversely, if this is not the 1st one of these (and it apparently is not) then you can guess the US has been sitting and watching for exactly the same reason - to see what China wants to try to get away with, figure out what information they were looking for (and thus value), and gather intelligence about what methods and hardware and command and control they are using. After watching several the value in that probably reaches the point of decreasing returns to the US decides the end the little game of mutual, symmetric gamesmanship.

Spying is alwys a strange exercise, feints and feints within feints. It's never clear the spy doesn't betray more useful information to the side he is spying on than he (or it) gains. And each side usually believes they are thinking one move ahead of the other, even if neither are.

I believe in trying to keep technologies to produce capabilities secret. but less so the capabilities themselves, and most of the rest of what each side tries to keep secret is probably counterproductive. It's ignorance that leads to paranoia and miscalculation and bad outcomes. If your enemy knows your capabilities, that *may* give them some kind of edge, but that's going to be less strategicaly dterminative than their realization that it's going to be really hard to succeed in whatever they have in mind if they are considering starting something stupid. More information is more stablizing than the secrecy buffs will  admit.

Edited February 7, 2023 by gehringer_2

[pfife]

48 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

My only point is that much of the core of the FBI, Intelligence agencies, our defense, are built around career men and women that have worked in those fields for decades.  Without a doubt, putting a political appointee to head or oversee an organization can damage it, but the core folks are likely people trying to do their best job.  

So an argument built on partisan beliefs that of course these same departments might have been so inept just because Trump was POTUS, but somehow they magically figured out how to do their jobs once your guy is in office is a little silly.

By no means do I think these 'shoot it down' politicians that came out this weekend to try and show they were tough on China had any reasonable argument and were grandstanding.  Conversely though, the 'OMG, it's just a balloon, what are you going to do, shoot it with your six shooter, everything was done perfectly' politicians are shooting from the hip themselves.  

I'm not going to pretend I know what the right choice was and I'm willing to believe that informed people weighed in on the situation and the president made his call on that.  But I certainly would like to know what we think China was trying to do, rather than simply join a side based on who is currently in office, mock the other side, and move on.

hilariously it came out that slumps crew never detected them but go off champ, it's fiction hour up in here

[mtutiger]

55 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Conversely though, the 'OMG, it's just a balloon, what are you going to do, shoot it with your six shooter, everything was done perfectly' politicians are shooting from the hip themselves.  

To be fair, this sentiment was at times in response to actual idiotic right wing vice signaling by some GOP pols (see JD Vance, for instance)

[pfife]

Just now, mtutiger said:

To be fair, this sentiment was at times in response to actual idiotic right wing vice signaling by some GOP pols (see JD Vance, for instance)

it was literally posted in this thread but alas..... 

[mtutiger]

7 minutes ago, pfife said:

it was literally posted in this thread but alas..... 

I may have missed it... either way, it's not like it's a made-up characterization or even a caricature when you have the actual GOP politicians out there messaging that stupidity.

But, I know, "both sides", yada yada

Edited February 7, 2023 by mtutiger

[ewsieg]

21 minutes ago, pfife said:

hilariously it came out that slumps crew never detected them but go off champ, it's fiction hour up in here

Biden absolutely deserves credit for recognizing the lone issue with our nearly 3 million employees defense department was its leader. Austin came in, kept his eye on radar reports, identified and then tracked it to SC where once he had permission he loaded up a missile, fueled up his F-22, and flew the mission to take it out. 

[oblong]

46 minutes ago, pfife said:

it was literally posted in this thread but alas..... 

he likes to pretend we make up things actually said then goes on and makes up things never said and expects us to argue against it as if it were said. 

[ewsieg]

What did I say was made up?

 And yeah, I both sides the shit out of everything because I want to understand each side.  For 6-7 years now I’ve “both sides” everything as I’ve made it clear which side was worse. 95% of what all you partisans complain about the GOP, I absolutely agree with you on. But because I question what the narrative out of anyone with a D next to them, I’m just “both sidsin”.