chasfh Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 3 hours ago, Tiger337 said: I can easily see it happening. Trump doesn't need any additional votes. He just needs people who voted for Biden in 2020 to lose interest and just not vote. I don't think that's going to happen come crunch time. If there's one emotion Trump does not generate, it's apathy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 11 minutes ago, The Ronz said: Trump is going to win fairly easily. I hope I'm wrong but I doubt I am. All the young voters I know including those voting for the very first time are voting for Trump. All those who voted for Biden last time or didn't vote are voting for Trump. I literally don't know anyone who isn't voting for Trump. None of the young voters I know, including those voting for the first time, are voting for trump. Nobody I know who voted for Biden last time, or who didn't vote at all, are voting for Trump. I literally don't know anyone who is voting for Trump. Looks like we cancel each other out! 😄 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 32 minutes ago, The Ronz said: Trump is going to win fairly easily. I hope I'm wrong but I doubt I am. All the young voters I know including those voting for the very first time are voting for Trump. All those who voted for Biden last time or didn't vote are voting for Trump. I literally don't know anyone who isn't voting for Trump. "WTF is WRONG with KIDS these days?!?!": Old man shouting at clouds passing by... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I don't know who is going to win except one case - which is if SCOTUS upholds Texas' right to ban abortion to save the mother at some point before the voting, then Trump simply cannot win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 (edited) 1 hour ago, chasfh said: I don't think that's going to happen come crunch time. If there's one emotion Trump does not generate, it's apathy. I would say a third of the country doesn't give a crap about politics one way or the other. You won't get them to vote because you think Trump is going to end democracy and become the supreme leader of a White Christian Nationalist country. They will just laugh at you. If they vote at all, it's going to based on something concrete like the country shutting down because of an epidemic and the president responding like a moron. Hopefully, that doesn't happen in 2024! Edited January 7 by Tiger337 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, Tiger337 said: I would say a third of the country doesn't give a crap about politics one way or the other. Voter turnout in the US took a jump after (and probably because of) the civil right legislation post WWII and it's been on an upward trend again since about Obama - but it's still barely to 50% of the population. Given the US insistence on maintaining a relatively high level of inconvenience to vote, probably 25% of people who have some interest in voting end up failing to, so that plus the people who do vote gets you in the ballpark of 2/3 of the pop. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_United_States_presidential_elections Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 My way too early gut take is the election comes down to whether Kennedy or someone else runs as third party. Much like 2016 a semi effective third party canidate will get a significant portion of the anti Trump vote. Far left liberals who think Biden is too old and a portion of the anti Trump right who would never vote for a Democrat no matter what. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 53 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said: My way too early gut take is the election comes down to whether Kennedy or someone else runs as third party. Much like 2016 a semi effective third party canidate will get a significant portion of the anti Trump vote. Far left liberals who think Biden is too old and a portion of the anti Trump right who would never vote for a Democrat no matter what. https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/swing-state-polling-2024-november-rfk-jr From polling that Morning Consult did it appears RFK Jr hurts Biden and Trump equally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Have we discussed the New Apostolic Reformation? This thing seems to have formed the core of the Jan 6 nutters. Were I still doing political psychology stuff I'd do a deep dive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 I wonder whether the appearance of apathy among the voting age people we know reflects more the fact that the election is not right now, rather than the idea that they will never, ever, ever care. We’re still some ten months out from the election, which is forever away to most people, so Joe and Jane Average don’t have to think about any of it yet. But I would bet that once the election is next month or next week or something like that, that’s when the people who hadn’t been thinking about any of it will start to pay attention, and that’s when they will start to internalize the stark differences between Biden and Trump, the reminders of what Trump did in 2021 as well as during his presidency, the grave threat he poses to our freedoms, and how deeply unqualified he is to be President. They may not be paying attention to any of that now, because Trump doesn’t show up in their video games, or their Tik Tok dance feeds, or on the Golden Bachelor, or in their kitchens or gardens or true crime podcasts. (Well, maybe Trump should be showing up in that last one.) But a dollar to a dime says they’ll be paying attention to it by November 1. That’s why I don’t take January polls seriously. The sampling for those is among people who are paying attention all the time and who do care all the time. But they probably won’t make up even the majority of the people who cast votes for this election. That majority of voters just aren’t paying attention yet. But I don’t worry that they won’t be when the time comes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I think there's validity to that. How much the pollsters adjust for that, who knows. Most people are busy living their lives and not thinking about this. We are unique in that we discuss this online. I'd say 99% of the voting population do not do that. We have so much to consume now in the way of entertainment that it overshadows our news gathering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 39 minutes ago, oblong said: I think there's validity to that. How much the pollsters adjust for that, who knows. Most people are busy living their lives and not thinking about this. We are unique in that we discuss this online. I'd say 99% of the voting population do not do that. We have so much to consume now in the way of entertainment that it overshadows our news gathering. My wife and her very politically switched on group of Northern Virginia ladies (e.g., probably all donors to Planned Parenthood etc.) engaged with a friend of theirs on their girls weekend who had moved off to Houston suburb of The Woodlands and who didn't get what they were talking about when they referred to "MAGAs". I am reminded of this sketch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 4 hours ago, oblong said: I think there's validity to that. How much the pollsters adjust for that, who knows. Most people are busy living their lives and not thinking about this. We are unique in that we discuss this online. I'd say 99% of the voting population do not do that. We have so much to consume now in the way of entertainment that it overshadows our news gathering. If what I’m saying holds any water, then I think that also naturally accrues to Biden’s benefit, because people who are into Trump have been conditioned to be switched on about him all the time, and not at all apathetic about all of this. People who aren’t paying much attention yet probably aren’t radicalized in the way Trump would prefer. So I don’t see how Trump picks up the additional numbers to whip Biden in November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 55 minutes ago, chasfh said: If what I’m saying holds any water, then I think that also naturally accrues to Biden’s benefit, because people who are into Trump have been conditioned to be switched on about him all the time, and not at all apathetic about all of this. People who aren’t paying much attention yet probably aren’t radicalized in the way Trump would prefer. So I don’t see how Trump picks up the additional numbers to whip Biden in November. Rush Limaugh was not dead in 2016. He's dead now. Has anybody really filled that gap? Not to mention Tucker at night on Fox. I envision apathetic people who just out of habit had Rush on the radio while riding around. He went away. They now listen to something or somebody else who isn't as much of a nutjob. Maybe they found music or a religious show or something. Same at night. Tucker was just always on. Now he's gone so they switched to something else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 (edited) 1 hour ago, oblong said: Rush Limaugh was not dead in 2016. He's dead now. Has anybody really filled that gap? Not to mention Tucker at night on Fox. I envision apathetic people who just out of habit had Rush on the radio while riding around. He went away. They now listen to something or somebody else who isn't as much of a nutjob. Maybe they found music or a religious show or something. Same at night. Tucker was just always on. Now he's gone so they switched to something else. Most people who are uninterested in politics just want peace and calm. By the end of Trump's term we were having impeachment hearings, riots in the City that is supposed to be nice and people smashing up the Capitol. It would seem reasonable to expect that the real silent majority are people who will think about the last 4 yrs and realize things are a lot calmer than the previous 4 and with the economy chugging along nicely that will be enough for them to vote incumbent. Edited January 8 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 3 hours ago, oblong said: Rush Limaugh was not dead in 2016. He's dead now. Has anybody really filled that gap? Not to mention Tucker at night on Fox. I envision apathetic people who just out of habit had Rush on the radio while riding around. He went away. They now listen to something or somebody else who isn't as much of a nutjob. Maybe they found music or a religious show or something. Same at night. Tucker was just always on. Now he's gone so they switched to something else. I don't know if people who are apathetic and disengaged would listen to AM Radio fire-breathers like Mark Levin or Dan Bongino, and if they do, I can't imagine how they wouldn't become radicalized. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben9753 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 13 minutes ago, chasfh said: I don't know if people who are apathetic and disengaged would listen to AM Radio fire-breathers like Mark Levin or Dan Bongino, and if they do, I can't imagine how they wouldn't become radicalized. Back in the Obama days I used to listen to Levin and Limbaugh. This board had alot to do with me realizing they were hucksters who were making millions off riling up the masses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 14 minutes ago, ben9753 said: Back in the Obama days I used to listen to Levin and Limbaugh. This board had alot to do with me realizing they were hucksters who were making millions off riling up the masses. I used to listen to Limbaugh back in the early 90s just because it came up as I flipped the car radio dial. I thought it was humorous and I had no idea millions of people took him seriously. I actually think it started out more as comedy than a serious show and then he saw how rich and powerful he was becoming and milked it for all it was worth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 36 minutes ago, chasfh said: I don't know if people who are apathetic and disengaged would listen to AM Radio fire-breathers like Mark Levin or Dan Bongino, and if they do, I can't imagine how they wouldn't become radicalized. I am fortunate enough to not know who Levin is. I have a friend who raves about Bongino. He practically begged me to listen to him. I clinked on the link and knew he was a huckster within 10 seconds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Netnerd Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 hours ago, Tiger337 said: I am fortunate enough to not know who Levin is. I have a friend who raves about Bongino. He practically begged me to listen to him. I clinked on the link and knew he was a huckster within 10 seconds. You’ve not heard Mark Levin? I envy our innocence. Limbaugh was comedy at first. Then George HW Bush invited him to the White House. Rush’s change was palpable and immediate. He took himself seriously, duped by his own scam. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 Oh, for the love of 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, chasfh said: Oh, for the love of I wouldn’t recognize a single song by her but I love what she’s done. Her tour was great. Seeing the passion and joy she brought to so many was heartwarming. Even better than that is watching all the bros and MAGA jag offs freaking out because she invaded their NFL. I’m here for it. She will make them all her bitch. She’s got the power and insecure little men can’t handle it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 On 1/8/2024 at 9:26 PM, Netnerd said: You’ve not heard Mark Levin? I envy our innocence. Limbaugh was comedy at first. Then George HW Bush invited him to the White House. Rush’s change was palpable and immediate. He took himself seriously, duped by his own scam. I remember listening back in 2016 when Mark Levin declared himself "Nevertrump" but quickly sorted out that he wouldn't make the money he was making if he kept that stance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Traump reportedly wants to deliver his closing argument in the NY fraud trial by himself. LFG! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smr-nj Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 31 minutes ago, romad1 said: Traump reportedly wants to deliver his closing argument in the NY fraud trial by himself. LFG! I’ve heard that should he do that, he would be considered a witness, and would need to take the stand to be cross-examined by the prosecutors. He’s not doing it. This was just another campaigning fraud announcement. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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