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Cleanup in Aisle Lunatic (h/t romad1)


chasfh

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The fact that Herschel Walker is considered a "toss-up" is so beyond frightening and it's defeating.   He is a liar, an exceptionally bad one -  and he's profoundly stupid. 

I thought there couldn't be anyone dumber than Louie Gohmert

Then Tommy Tuberville came along

I thought there couldn't be anyone dumber than Tommy Tuberville

Hello Herschel Walker.

I can't even imagine what's next.    

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1 hour ago, Edman85 said:

Neither you, me, nor the author of that billboard is on the grand jury. it's up to them. Like it or not, this dipshit has Constitutional rights too. Things like this only put up barriers for the prosecution.

I just passed a billboard that was calling for us to sleep well because Climate Change wasn't real.

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20 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

The fact that Herschel Walker is considered a "toss-up" is so beyond frightening and it's defeating.   He is a liar, an exceptionally bad one -  and he's profoundly stupid. 

I thought there couldn't be anyone dumber than Louie Gohmert

Then Tommy Tuberville came along

I thought there couldn't be anyone dumber than Tommy Tuberville

Hello Herschel Walker.

I can't even imagine what's next.    

People in Georgia LOVE football as much as the Alabamans who just elected Tommy Tuberville. I think Walker beats Warnock because it is both a bad year for Democrats due to gas prices and inflation, as well given that Herschel Walker is a football GOD down there. I don't think any of the baggage Walker brings: from holding a razor blade to his girlfriends throat to threating to kill her and her kids to threatening to kill himself to his sheer stupidity to being a huckster for fake Covid cures. Walker went to Georgia, he won the Heisman Trophy in college, is viewed as a football God, and will get lots of crossover and independent voters to go his way on the basis that they remember the good ole days of Georgia football in the 1980's. I don't think it's a blowout by any means, but I think Walker wins by 2-2.5 points and football will be a big reason why.

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24 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Latest polls have Warnock up 4. I don't think football has anything to do with it. Georgia is still Georgia and still has a large Republican base. Tuberville won because Trump endorsed him and Sessions did give complete loyalty to Trump. 

I saw Walker up +5 in the poll put out by John Bolton's Super PAC. Data for Progress, which leans D in terms of polling, also had Walker up +2 at the beginning of the month. I know the aggregate shows Warnock leading, but when you look at the data, gas prices and inflation are what voters care about and it's bad for Democrats now. You intermix that with a football God running and that's where Walker gets an advantage.

 

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1 minute ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I saw Walker up +5 in the poll put out by John Bolton's Super PAC. Data for Progress, which leans D in terms of polling, also had Walker up +2 at the beginning of the month. I know the aggregate shows Warnock leading, but when you look at the data, gas prices and inflation are what voters care about and it's bad for Democrats now. You intermix that with a football God running and that's where Walker gets an advantage.

 

AAA survey says $3.80 in GA today.... 

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2 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I saw Walker up +5 in the poll put out by John Bolton's Super PAC. Data for Progress, which leans D in terms of polling, also had Walker up +2 at the beginning of the month. I know the aggregate shows Warnock leading, but when you look at the data, gas prices and inflation are what voters care about and it's bad for Democrats now. You intermix that with a football God running and that's where Walker gets an advantage.

 

A Fox News poll that was just released has Warnock up 4 and Fox News, unlike everything, is a reliable poll. You keep saying it's a bad year for Democrats but yet the polling doesn't show that. You also mention Walker being a football God, well this is the bible belt and Warnock is an actual reverend. 

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19 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Gas prices have been on the decline for some 40 days. 

The silver lining for the Dems will be if voters assume that just because Gasoline is coming down, everything else will too. It might - but the truth is gasoline prices move almost independently of the larger economy. Gas can come down and 'core' inflation (whatever you take that to mean!) may still be going up, down or sideways.

Edited by gehringer_2
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37 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

A Fox News poll that was just released has Warnock up 4 and Fox News, unlike everything, is a reliable poll. You keep saying it's a bad year for Democrats but yet the polling doesn't show that. You also mention Walker being a football God, well this is the bible belt and Warnock is an actual reverend. 

The 538 generic ballot average is R+.3. The Real Clear Politics generic ballot average is R+.9. Fox News had a poll just two weeks ago that was R+3, Emerson R+1. So R's are still ahead in the generic ballot averages. Maybe that will change with time.

Additionally, Fox News had a poll and it asked voters what are the most important issues and who trust the most to handle them and Democrats were getting crushed in that. Overall, 41% say inflation will be most important to their vote for Congress. That’s about four times as many as say guns (12%) and abortion (10%). Next, it’s border security (7%), followed by climate change and crime (5% each), election integrity and voting rights (4% each), coronavirus (3%), and foreign policy (1%). The Republican issue advantages are larger and, importantly, on the top issue. They are preferred on inflation (R+19 points), border security (R+19), crime (R+13), and foreign policy (R+8). 

A Monmouth Poll from the beginning of the month told a similar story. Nearly half of the public names either inflation (33%) or gas prices (15%) as the biggest concern facing their family right now. The economy in general (9%) and paying everyday bills (6%) are among other financial concerns mentioned. Abortion, which has registered less than 1% on this question in prior Monmouth polls going back to 2015, is currently named by 5%

That to me shows that voters don't care about January 6th all that much, and only moderately care about abortion rights and guns. As James Carville correctly stated: "It's the economy, stupid." Note, I am not calling you stupid, just pointing out that people care about economics far and above anything else. People vote with their wallets and for the economic wellbeing of themselves and their families. If gas and inflation stay high, Democrats will pay the political price if the Fox News and Monmouth data are any indicators.

It partially explains why a candidates like Tim Ryan can overperform in polling in Ohio and candidates like Sherrod Brown can win there. Same goes with Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin and (potentially) Fetterman in Pennsylvania. Fetterman and Ryan run as an economic progressive populists, like Baldwin and Brown do. Their messaging and way of campaigning separates them from the standard Democratic candidates.

Edited by Mr.TaterSalad
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2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

The silver lining for the Dems will be if voters assume that just because Gasoline is coming down, everything else will too. It might - but the truth is gasoline prices move almost independently of the larger economy. Gas can come down and 'core' inflation (whatever you take that to mean!) may still be going up, down or sideways.

Gas is highly competitive because it’s the only thing you care about at that facility and the price is displayed outside and you can compare on the spot.  But when a business had to hike the price of a hamburger or box of cereal are they in such a position that they have to lower it immediately?  Psychologically people will accept prices as they are on certain things. 

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