Cleanup in Aisle Lunatic (h/t romad1)

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

This is the other pitfall of Wasserman's point.... there are some very large in population, Biden-voting counties that are also in the 110s of turnout right now.

Wasserman also seems to act like Virginia is a tossup. It's a D+10 state. Even if turnout is up for Youngkin, it doesn't seem like turnout alone will be enough. 

[Motown Bombers]

Apparently this woman is a political analyst.

 

[CMRivdogs]

18 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Wasserman also seems to act like Virginia is a tossup. It's a D+10 state. Even if turnout is up for Youngkin, it doesn't seem like turnout alone will be enough. 

Not when it comes to the gubernatorial race. If you check past history most races fell within a five point or less margin

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, CMRivdogs said:

Not when it comes to the gubernatorial race. If you check past history most races fell within a five point or less margin

Northam won by 9. It seems the state is moving blue. Pre 2008 elections don't seem relevant. A Republican hasn't won statewide election in 12 years. 

[mtutiger]

26 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

Not when it comes to the gubernatorial race. If you check past history most races fell within a five point or less margin

And structurally, it makes sense. Virginia is one of the first elections after a President takes office or wins reelection - often a time when national environment for a sitting President isn't always the best.

I think MB is right about Virginia's lean, but the fundamentals nationally do point to a close race here. And one that Youngkin can win.

[CMRivdogs]

So then we’re talking 3 elections hardly a solid trend. Take a look at the legislature as well.

2009 McConnell (R) 17 points 58.6. Deeds 41.3

2013 McAuliffe (D) 3 points 47.8  Cuccinelli 45.2  6.5 for Sarvis, Libertarian 

2017 Northam (D) 9 points  53.86 Gillespie 44.98

Democrats only took control of the House of Delegates in 2017. I will concede it’s trending blue but still a very purple state. Northam’s margin was a blowback on Trump 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 2, 2021 by CMRivdogs

[Motown Bombers]

Obama won by 4 in 2012, Clinton by 5 in 2016, and Biden by 10 in 2020. McAuliffe won in 2013 (even with his party in the White House) and Northam won by 9. The trend seems to be blue. It's no California but it doesn't seem both are starting from the same starting position. All indications are that turnout is also up in Democratic areas. It's possible McAuliffe could end up with the same vote total as Northam and win by a less margin. 

[Motown Bombers]

Polls are closed now. Someone call it for McAuliffe. 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[oblong]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

Apparently this woman is a political analyst.

 

Maybe she meant the dude… ?  Like the heir.  

[oblong]

My twitter feed is hinting bad news for McCauliffe. 

[romad1]

2 minutes ago, oblong said:

My twitter feed is hinting bad news for McCauliffe. 

The bots and trolls are working extra hard today to set expectations. 

[mtutiger]

Probably would rather be Youngkin atm, although the lack of clarity on what types of ballots are reporting in which counties kinda makes it hard to follow

[CMRivdogs]

Looks like McAuliffe running about 5 points behind Biden

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, CMRivdogs said:

Looks like McAuliffe running about 5 points behind Biden

Thankfully Biden won by 10. 

[Motown Bombers]

I'm not confident but with the lack of competitive Detroit sports this is all I got. 

[Motor City Sonics]

Youngkin has won Virginia.  

[Motor City Sonics]

Just now, Motor City Sonics said:

Youngkin has won Virginia.  

even if he didn't, it was rigged................

[Hongbit]

1 minute ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Youngkin has won Virginia.  

I blame Dave Matthews.  

[Motor City Sonics]

1 minute ago, Hongbit said:

I blame Dave Matthews.  

He hasn't been any good since his tour bus driver dumped a bunch of shit on people in Chicago. 

 

[Motor City Sonics]

I don't know what happens tonight, I have a sick feeling, but a year from now, I'm going to need Xanax to get through it.  

[Motown Bombers]

I can't wait until voting rights start getting stripped and abortion becomes illegal and COVID cases skyrocket and the Democrats who didn't vote start protesting in their cute hats. 

[Motown Bombers]

Virginia is going to make its triumphant return to the confederacy. 

[mtutiger]

Yeah, Glenn's got this. It'll still be close, but he's got it.

Edited November 3, 2021 by mtutiger