4/24 1:10 Rockies @ Tigers

[gehringer_2]

24 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Not that Willi is a world beater or anything, but this is a bit surprising. 

Either way, its almost Chafin time!

Maybe they want Garcia to pitch more regularly than he would be likely to get the chance for here. He has a lot of experience innings to make up.

[casimir]

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

absolutely. I hear tell Clemens if off to a good start....maybe someone in the rear view mirror will light a fire under Candy. Some guys are able to use that.

Or what about Torkleson at 3B, Cabrera at 1B, Meadows at DH for a game here or there is Candelario continues to struggle?

[kdog]

20 minutes ago, casimir said:

Or what about Torkleson at 3B, Cabrera at 1B, Meadows at DH for a game here or there is Candelario continues to struggle?

Tork will never play another game at 3rd. You have to think about him in 2-3 years. It would hinder his development and he's more important than Candelario having a terrible month.

[kdog]

But I don't view this as a contending season. I think they are at least a year away. So any moves made should be positioning the team to be good in '23 and 24.

[gehringer_2]

26 minutes ago, kdog said:

But I don't view this as a contending season. I think they are at least a year away. So any moves made should be positioning the team to be good in '23 and 24.

IDK - to me, this has to be a potentially contending season. With Mize, Manning, Skubal, Tork and Greene all promoted, it's not like there are any stars in waiting that are going to make the team much better next year than now  - at least if Greene is not out all year. None of the guys in the system now, other than Jobe - who is years away, have anything like the profile of Tork or Greene as sure bets.....This is unlike say the Wings, where there is talent in the pipeline assumed to be far better than the players on the team now or the Lions where they still need at least another draft or two to even fill the roster.

If the young pitchers hold up - which at this point means Manning gets back very soon, Mize reasonably soon, and Skubal keeps it up, I don't see any reason to believe the team is going to be any better in any future year than they can be now. If the three arms don't they aren't a contender this year or in the future.

The only big plus for next year will be to have Turnbull back, but 50/50 we lose some other pitcher by then and it will be a wash. 

Edited April 24, 2022 by gehringer_2

[kdog]

We've already seen how much relying on pitching can be problematic. They haven't held up.

And I don't see it with this lineup at all. It will get better but won't be better than average.

[casimir]

1 hour ago, kdog said:

Tork will never play another game at 3rd. You have to think about him in 2-3 years. It would hinder his development and he's more important than Candelario having a terrible month.

I'm not suggesting Torkelson will be at 3B in 2-3 years.  Heck, he played it last season.  Its not like we're talking a complete fish out of water scenario like when Alex Avila had that 5 innings at 3B.

[SoCalTiger]

We should not punt on this year. The division could be ripe for the picking. Maybe we are better next year but So could the rest of the division. Losing Green really hurt on both sides of the ball. If we can hang in until he returns I like our chances. Breskie  looks like a keeper and Skubal is stepping up. We have deep pitching. Just need to tighten up defensively. The hitting with Green is sufficient. 

[mtutiger]

Just now, SoCalTiger said:

We should not punt on this year. The division could be ripe for the picking. Maybe we are better next year but So could the rest of the division. Losing Green really hurt on both sides of the ball. If we can hang in until he returns I like our chances. Breskie  looks like a keeper and Skubal is stepping up. We have deep pitching. Just need to tighten up defensively. The hitting with Green is sufficient. 

100% right. For all of our complaining, every other team in the division is kinda treading water at the moment. 

And if (big if) the pitching can hold up enough until Manning/Mize get back, I don't know that they need to have the best offense to be at least on the periphery  of competing in this division. They just need to get to their potential, particularly on 2nd and 3rd.

I'd still stick with my 82 win prediction, but I can see scenarios where they can do better.

[casimir]

I think this team is still largely unknown at this point. 

• Baez, Mize, Manning, Greene, and Chafin have all have lost a good amount of time.
• Candelario, Schoop, and Baddoo have been awful.  Candelario and Schoop can easily be considered underperforming based on their resumes.  Baddoo, we still don't know, last season could be an aberration.
• They've played only 15 games.  As bad as they've been, they're only 1.5 GB.  It ain't like anyone is running away with the division.  Every ALC team as had issues.

[kdog]

I don't think they should punt on the year. Moving Tork off 1B is not a move I would endorse even if it would mean immediate improvement. You just have to ride out the struggles of certain offensive players until it turns around.

They're lucky to be 6-9 with how bad the offense been. 

Edited April 25, 2022 by kdog

[casimir]

7 minutes ago, kdog said:

They're lucky to be 6-9 with how bad the offense been. 

Its amazing to think this team had 20 hits in a game.  They have 112 in 15 games, and average of 7.5 per game.  A whopping 17.9% of their hits in one game (which, OK, its early and easily to play numbers games).

Its amazing to think an MLB team could have 20 hits in a game and only 2 of those were extra base hits.

[kdog]

Take out Tork and Meadows(Baez hasn't played enough games), only Cabrera has a slugging % above .350.

 

[mtutiger]

13 minutes ago, casimir said:

Its amazing to think an MLB team could have 20 hits in a game and only 2 of those were extra base hits.

Crazy enough, but I believe the 21-0 Cubs win over Pittsburgh was similar in regards to how many one baggers the Cubs had...

Edit: 23 hits, 18 singles in that one

Edited April 25, 2022 by mtutiger

[casimir]

32 minutes ago, kdog said:

Take out Tork and Meadows(Baez hasn't played enough games), only Cabrera has a slugging % above .350.

 

Without looking at it, it sounds about right.

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, casimir said:

Without looking at it, it sounds about right.

I do have some hope Robbie will join that club soon. Along with Baez.

But yeah, Candy and Schoop are issues lol

[SoCalTiger]

1 hour ago, kdog said:

Take out Tork and Meadows(Baez hasn't played enough games), only Cabrera has a slugging % above .350.

 

I look at that as a positive in that we have huge upside that’s bound to surface. And we are enduring the hardest part of the schedule. 
 

With players returning from injury and others improving up to their normal performance level combined with an improving schedule we have a snowball rolling downhill. Wait for it and enjoy it  

 

 

[gehringer_2]

34 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

I look at that as a positive in that we have huge upside that’s bound to surface. And we are enduring the hardest part of the schedule. 
 

With players returning from injury and others improving up to their normal performance level combined with an improving schedule we have a snowball rolling downhill. Wait for it and enjoy it  

 

 

we can aspire to be the 2006 Cardinals!

[casimir]

10 hours ago, mtutiger said:

I do have some hope Robbie will join that club soon. Along with Baez.

But yeah, Candy and Schoop are issues lol

Just got to ride it out.  Its only late April.  Maybe give them an extra day off here and there if they are pressing too much. 

[chasfh]

13 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

IDK - to me, this has to be a potentially contending season. With Mize, Manning, Skubal, Tork and Greene all promoted, it's not like there are any stars in waiting that are going to make the team much better next year than now  - at least if Greene is not out all year. None of the guys in the system now, other than Jobe - who is years away, have anything like the profile of Tork or Greene as sure bets.....This is unlike say the Wings, where there is talent in the pipeline assumed to be far better than the players on the team now or the Lions where they still need at least another draft or two to even fill the roster. 

And here lies the object lesson about the danger of having a top-heavy system: your top prospects all come up at once, and if they are not exactly ready to go at that moment, there’s nobody of consequence coming up behind them to further strengthen the team.

So to fill the remaining holes, the Tigers will have to either make impactful trades, and who knows whom they deal to make that happen; or they sign impactful free agents, and who knows for sure whether Baby Doc will spend what it takes to make that happen.

It may not be now-or-never quite yet, but given the way the Tigers constructed the rebuild, it’s definitely the beginning of now. With the Sox gimpy and stumbling, we would normally have a golden chance to pounce if we weren’t so gimpy and stumbly ourselves.

Maybe this is the year we start to find out just how serious and competent Jay Sartori’s team is at setting us up to move assets and patch holes Rays-style.

[chasfh]

12 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Crazy enough, but I believe the 21-0 Cubs win over Pittsburgh was similar in regards to how many one baggers the Cubs had...

Edit: 23 hits, 18 singles in that one

The irony being that singles have been disappearing from the baseball landscape like passenger pigeons.

[mtutiger]

37 minutes ago, chasfh said:

So to fill the remaining holes, the Tigers will have to either make impactful trades, and who knows whom they deal to make that happen; or they sign impactful free agents, and who knows for sure whether Baby Doc will spend what it takes to make that happen.

Or they can produce more through the draft and international signings and restock the system. Which, at least pitching wise, there seems to be evidence of that happening, given the promise of Ty Madden, Wilmer Flores, Dylan Smith etc.

IDK, I guess I don't know that the system is as top-heavy as we make it out to be sometimes. They have a lot more depth then at any point I've followed them.

I would add that someone mentioned in the thread for Brieske's start that he's the kinda pitcher this org needs to produce more of.... it doesn't have to all be superstar profiles, but they have really struggled even to produce more serviceable guys who profile as even a 4-5 starter at the MLB level. Maybe that is starting to change some.

Edited April 25, 2022 by mtutiger

[chasfh]

9 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Or they can produce more through the draft and international signings and restock the system. Which, at least pitching wise, there seems to be evidence of that happening, given the promise of Ty Madden, Wilmer Flores, Dylan Smith etc.

IDK, I guess I don't know that the system is as top-heavy as we make it out to be sometimes. They have a lot more depth then at any point I've followed them.

I would add that someone mentioned in the thread for Brieske's start that he's the kinda pitcher this org needs to produce more of.... it doesn't have to all be superstar profiles, but they have really struggled even to produce more serviceable guys who profile as even a 4-5 starter at the MLB level. Maybe that is starting to change some.

We are a long, long, long way from getting anything from Ty Madden, Wilmer Flores or Dylan Smith. Probably nothing decent until at least 2025. We're going to need something in 2023 and 2024 as well, now that the window has opened. Who do we got? And at this point in time drafting and international signings is a strategy to help us in 2027 and beyond, not in the next few seasons.

Plus those three, as well as Brieske—a 27th-round pick who has pitched exactly five major league innings, so I'm going to hold off on agreeing that he's the guy we need even at #5—are all right-handed pitchers. I know you're not advocating building our entire system on right-handed pitching, but if these are the best examples of guys who are on the brink of helping us that you can provide, might that not suggest that the system, even as you characterize it, is still too weighted toward the right-handed pitching basket? Where are the impact position players in the system who are close to helping us during this window?

[mtutiger]

20 minutes ago, chasfh said:

We are a long, long, long way from getting anything from Ty Madden, Wilmer Flores or Dylan Smith. Probably nothing decent until at least 2025. We're going to need something in 2023 and 2024 as well, now that the window has opened. Who do we got? And at this point in time drafting and international signings is a strategy to help us in 2027 and beyond, not in the next few seasons.

Plus those three, as well as Brieske—a 27th-round pick who has pitched exactly five major league innings, so I'm going to hold off on agreeing that he's the guy we need even at #5—are all right-handed pitchers. I know you're not advocating building our entire system on right-handed pitching, but if these are the best examples of guys who are on the brink of helping us that you can provide, might that not suggest that the system, even as you characterize it, is still too weighted toward the right-handed pitching basket? Where are the impact position players in the system who are close to helping us during this window?

Ty Madden and Dylan Smith are both college guys... can we really say that they won't be seen until 2025 at the earliest, if all goes well? I can't answer that definitively, especially considering that (iirc) the MLB Pipeline guys had Madden at one point as being one of the guys who could make the bigs the fastest out of the 2021 Draft Class.

In terms of the imbalance between position players and pitching prospects, you are correct.... that may change, but a lot of the talent they are hyping up are in Lakeland right now. Also a lot hinges on some guys that are in West Michigan and Erie (ie. Colt Keith, Parker Meadows, Gage Workman) making strides as well.... but you are correct, they are further out on that side.

Overall, I'm more pushing back on the idea that the system is "barren"... this system is not the worst system in baseball, probably more middle of the pack. Which, since I've been following the team, probably makes it better than at any point in my fandom. And pitching wise, given how notorious injuries are, the fact that they do have more depth IS a good thing that will help this club going forward. It's the kinda thing that successful orgs like Tampa and LA can hang their hat on.

Lastly, regarding Brieske... I think it's fair to approach with skepticism the fact that he's only had one start as to whether he can be successful or good depth.... but come on. The fact that he's a 27th rounder has absolutely no bearing on whether or not he can be a successful major leaguer. He didn't make it this far by being a fluke... I don't think AJ or Chris Fetter would send him out there if they didn't feel his stuff was good or didn't like his makeup.

Edited April 25, 2022 by mtutiger

[chasfh]

41 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Ty Madden and Dylan Smith are both college guys... can we really say that they won't be seen until 2025 at the earliest, if all goes well? I can't answer that definitively, especially considering that (iirc) the MLB Pipeline guys had Madden at one point as being one of the guys who could make the bigs the fastest out of the 2021 Draft Class.

In terms of the imbalance between position players and pitching prospects, you are correct.... that may change, but a lot of the talent they are hyping up are in Lakeland right now. Also a lot hinges on some guys that are in West Michigan and Erie (ie. Colt Keith, Parker Meadows, Gage Workman) making strides as well.... but you are correct, they are further out on that side.

Overall, I'm more pushing back on the idea that the system is "barren"... this system is not the worst system in baseball, probably more middle of the pack. Which, since I've been following the team, probably makes it better than at any point in my fandom. And pitching wise, given how notorious injuries are, the fact that they do have more depth IS a good thing that will help this club going forward. It's the kinda thing that successful orgs like Tampa and LA can hang their hat on.

Lastly, regarding Brieske... I think it's fair to approach with skepticism the fact that he's only had one start as to whether he can be successful or good depth.... but come on. The fact that he's a 27th rounder has absolutely no bearing on whether or not he can be a successful major leaguer. He didn't make it this far by being a fluke... I don't think AJ or Chris Fetter would send him out there if they didn't feel his stuff was good or didn't like his makeup.

Ty Madden and Dylan Smith are 21 or 22 and both at A+. I would guess that projects to a cup of coffee in 2023, shuttling between the minors and Detroit in 2024, and making the roster for good in 2025, when they may make WAR-positive contributions. That is, if all goes well.

The organization is just now starting to balance the system with position players a bit more, but again, if as you say, that hyped-up talent is currently at Lakeland, we're probably looking at 2026+ for getting starting-level two-win performance out of one or more of them. If all goes well.

Meanwhile, the window is cracked open now, and will swing wide open in 2023 and 2024. We don't have the system we need to feed us for that period, so we will need to patch holes for those next three seasons if we want to compete for divisions. That's the basic point I was making. In the meantime, the system can percolate with the prospects you named so they can come to Detroit in the three seasons after that. But if we punt for the next three years while we wait for that, then really, what the heck are we doing here?

Edited April 25, 2022 by chasfh