NFL Draft Night - As It Happens.

[Motown Bombers]

5 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

quality receiving in total doesn't look bad when you add Swift (62 catches in '21) plus Hockenson & St. B & Williams to the mix.

They're good receivers but they aren't game breakers. Williams when healthy has the potential to dictate coverage. Teams will have to drop a safety back to avoid getting beaten over the top leaving the underneath open for St Brown, Swift and Hockenson. He's a threat even when he isn't getting the ball. The Lions haven't had a receiver who other teams had to game plan around since Calvin Johnson. 

[RedRamage]

50 minutes ago, buddha said:

if the lions took a non malik willis qb, would you be pissed?

if they traded up to get willis, would you be pissed?

1. No because I'm not convinced that Willis is really much better than the others.  He certainly has some nice abilities, but I don't know that it will translate any better than the other options.
2. It depends on what they give up.  Again, I'm not convinced he's a sure thing, but I guess if the Lions are, then do it.  Heck, if they're really convinced that Willis is the guy trade the Rams pick next year for someone's second round this year.

[RandyMarsh]

Looking back I think it's obvious that Holmes must've felt strongly that there was a big drop off in WR from London, Wilson and Williams to the next batch which is why he made the move when he did. 

Yeah the ESPN pundits and others kept talking about how deep of class it was as evidence of the number of 1st rounders and that is true but that doesn't mean they are all on the same tier. 

For instance Scouts Inc. has Williams at a 92 while they have Dotson at 87, Watson at 84 and Pickens at 83, while that doesn't seem like much in reality the difference between mid 80s and low 90s is pretty massive on a scouting scale, so while the latter may be still be 1st or early 2nds they arent in the same class as somebody like Williams. 

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

lol.  jared goff has also lost, gotten benched, and then fired.

and his replacement won the super bowl.

goff is an adequate qb and a fine placeholder until they can hopefully find a better replacement, but he's not a good starting nfl qb.  come on.

true, but he's 27  (i.e. experienced but still physically prime) and the guys running the team like him, so I would guess the board overestimates the Lions' interest in replacing him.

Edited April 29, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

When was the last time the Lions traded up like this in the 1st round? I feel like they traded from the early 2nd to late 1st to draft Best and I believe that trade was with Minnesota or to get ahead of Minnesota. 

[NYLion]

2 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I've been against taking a QB in anything other than the first round. I believe that with a position as important as QB you either take your guy in the first or don't do it at all. Outside of the few exceptions, Tom Brady being the obvious one, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, most of your component starting QBs are first round choices.

Now, sometimes that strategy of taking or wanting a QB in the first has failed, depending on the guy. For the Lions, Joey Harrington was an obvious flop. For me personally, in hindsight, I'm obviously an idiot for thinking Connor Cook would be a component NFL starter. The jury is still out on Tua.

 With Malik Willis I might be willing to make an exception to this rule. If Brad Holmes and co have really done their homework on Malik, then pick him. I have enough trust, based on what Holmes has done thus far, to not get disappointed or worked up about him taking his future, franchise QB in any other round than one.

If Holmes takes anyone other than Willis, I think I'll be disappointed. I'm no QB expert and I've had my share of bad takes on who I thought would be good, great, and terrible. But I just can't help but think I'd feel extremely underwhelmed and disappointed if he took Corral, Howell, or Ridder at pick 46. I know we have Goff still and I know they could sit there and develop behind him. But after watching tape, reading through hours of opinion and analysis on these guys, and then seeing every NFL front office full of people way smarter than me pass on Corral, Howell, and Ridder, I just don't think I can get behind it being a QB not named Malik Willis.

I don't think QB is in the cards this year. Them making this move for Williams signals to me that they're riding with Goff for a while, building around him at least for the near future.

At this point, it needs to be a defense heavy draft. Preferably best LB or S available at 46 then best defensive player available most of the other picks outside of maybe taking another tight end since the depth is really shallow after Hock. I have a feeling that Holmes wouldn't take Willis even if he fell to 46.

[buddha]

3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

When was the last time the Lions traded up like this in the 1st round? I feel like they traded from the early 2nd to late 1st to draft Best and I believe that trade was with Minnesota or to get ahead of Minnesota. 

they traded into the first round to take aaron gibson, and also to take kevin jones.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

if the lions took a non malik willis qb, would you be pissed?

if they traded up to get willis, would you be pissed?

I'm done flipping out over what the Lions do on draft day/week and letting it ruin my experience. I flipped out when Millen took Charles Rogers, Joey Harrington, Stockar McDougall, and Jordan Dizon. I flipped out when Mayhew took Pettigrew, Titus Young, Ryan Broyles, Mikel LeShoure, and Eric Ebron. I flipped out when Quinn took Tevai and was somewhat upset passing on a QB for Okudah. I want to enjoy a draft for once and given my level of confidence in Holmes, I won't flip out if a non-Willis QB is taken at #46. That said, I will be disappointed and think it is the wrong pick. I think Willis is the only QB with a high enough upside to break the rule of not taking a QB outside of the first round.

If they traded up from 46 to get Willis it all depends on what they gave up to get him. I think giving up their remaining 3rd or a future 3rd is probably too much. Certainly giving up next years 2nd would be too high a price to pay. So I would have to wait and see what they gave up to get him.

Edited April 29, 2022 by Mr.TaterSalad

[Longgone]

1 minute ago, NYLion said:

I don't think QB is in the cards this year. Them making this move for Williams signals to me that they're riding with Goff for a while, building around him at least for the near future.

At this point, it needs to be a defense heavy draft. Preferably best LB or S available at 46 then best defensive player available most of the other picks outside of maybe taking another tight end since the depth is really shallow after Hock. I have a feeling that Holmes wouldn't take Willis even if he fell to 46.

I think they'll draft a quarterback when there is one available that they really like, that doesn't seem to be this year.

[NYLion]

2 hours ago, Hongbit said:

I like the aggressiveness of the trade and I like getting Hutch and Williams.   
 

If I’m being honest I would’ve preferred to stay at 32/34 and getting Cine and Dean over Williams

It's not Cine and Dean vs. Williams. It's Cine and Dean vs. Williams and whoever they pick at 46. Hell, if they get Dean at 46, it could be Williams and Dean. Unlikely, but a man can dream.

That's what made this trade so lopsided, the 2nd coming back from the Vikings. It's essentially 12+46 for 32+34 which alone is a win for the Lions so Holmes basically added a 3rd to move up 20 spots in the 1st round. There was a team that added two 4ths and a 5th just to move from 15 to 13. Think about that for a minute. That's an absolute steal valuewise especially for a team that needs starpower, dynamic playmakers.

[Motown Bombers]

Here's another way to frame the trade. 

 

[RandyMarsh]

Last year the Bears gave up a future 1st, a 4th and a 5th to move up from 20 to 11, we gave up less to move up from 32 to 12.

[MichiganCardinal]

1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

What wins in the NFL these days? Explosive offenses that can put up a ton of points. I get your concern about defense and share it to an extent. I used to be in the defense wins championships camp, but that simply isn't true anymore. Look at all the teams that made a conference championships this past season, 3 of the 4 were top 10 scoring offenses in the league. In 2020 I believe all 4 conference championship teams were in the top 10 in scoring. Offense wins championships in the NFL and they are loading up on offensive talent and lineman who can block and give that talent time to operate. Honestly, while I would probably draft one of the best defensive players available at #46, I would not be surprised if the pick was Kenneth Walker or Breece Hall.

I compared the Lions to the Jaguars during free agency when I appreciated the way the Lions were building things (slow with short-term contracts to start) as opposed to the Jags (throwing obscene amounts of money at their holes).

Using the same comparison, I think the Lions are doing well in really building the offense to be one of the best in the league, whereas the Jags are - to this point - neglecting their biggest asset in Trevor Lawrence. Picking up Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd is great, but even the best defense in the NFL last year (Buffalo) allowed 18.3 points per game last year. Compare that to ten years ago (2011), when eight teams averaged less than 20 points per game allowed, or 18 years ago (2003 - as far back as where I looked goes), and 15 teams allowed 20 or fewer ppg.

It appears that Holmes is attempting to make the Detroit offense as high-octane as possible, while getting the defense to a point where it is at least league average, or in other words, "good enough". In today's NFL, you have to be able to put up 24+ points every game to expect to win. The expectation that the Jacksonville defense can hold their opponents to less than 20 points, and that TLaw can magically manufacture three TDs a game is a relic of the football that was played when we were growing up. Nowadays, having a really good defense is a luxury, not a requisite to win a lot of football games.

I'm not sure if I would go so far as to expect a RB or TE with the #46 pick. That's not to say I am necessarily opposed, depending on who else is there, but part of the strategy I prescribed to Holmes above involves the defense evolving to a "good enough" point, which the defense at present is not. Just as you can't expect to win 10-9 ten or more times, you can't expect to win 49-45 ten times either. The linebackers on this team currently are just not even at replacement level.

[NYLion]

21 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

When was the last time the Lions traded up like this in the 1st round? I feel like they traded from the early 2nd to late 1st to draft Best and I believe that trade was with Minnesota or to get ahead of Minnesota. 

Laken Tomlinson, or was it Cherilus that they traded up for. One of those guys

Edited April 29, 2022 by NYLion

[RandyMarsh]

Btw even though the Lions did win thy trade going by past comparisons I don't necessarily think it was a bad trade for the Vikings either. If they didnt love anybody at that spot and felt they could get a similar player at 32, why not pick up extra capital even if it less than the perceived value of the pick?

[buddha]

5 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Last year the Bears gave up a future 1st, a 4th and a 5th to move up from 20 to 11, we gave up less to move up from 32 to 12.

the vikes gm is from the pff tree, i believe.  or was really into that style of analytics.  and by pff's measure, the vikings won the trade.

by most every other value measure that i've seen, the lions won.  i think there was one other measurement method that had it just about even.

[buddha]

1 minute ago, NYLion said:

Laken Tomlinson

lions traded down to draft tomlinson.  

[NYLion]

1 minute ago, buddha said:

lions traded down to draft tomlinson.  

Yes, you're correct. Filed into the large list of Lion fuck ups regardless.

Edited April 29, 2022 by NYLion

[buddha]

5 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I compared the Lions to the Jaguars during free agency when I appreciated the way the Lions were building things (slow with short-term contracts to start) as opposed to the Jags (throwing obscene amounts of money at their holes).

Using the same comparison, I think the Lions are doing well in really building the offense to be one of the best in the league, whereas the Jags are - to this point - neglecting their biggest asset in Trevor Lawrence. Picking up Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd is great, but even the best defense in the NFL last year (Buffalo) allowed 18.3 points per game last year. Compare that to ten years ago (2011), when eight teams averaged less than 20 points per game allowed, or 18 years ago (2003 - as far back as where I looked goes), and 15 teams allowed 20 or fewer ppg.

It appears that Holmes is attempting to make the Detroit offense as high-octane as possible, while getting the defense to a point where it is at least league average, or in other words, "good enough". In today's NFL, you have to be able to put up 24+ points every game to expect to win. The expectation that the Jacksonville defense can hold their opponents to less than 20 points, and that TLaw can magically manufacture three TDs a game is a relic of the football that was played when we were growing up. Nowadays, having a really good defense is a luxury, not a requisite to win a lot of football games.

I'm not sure if I would go so far as to expect a RB or TE with the #46 pick. That's not to say I am necessarily opposed, depending on who else is there, but part of the strategy I prescribed to Holmes above involves the defense evolving to a "good enough" point, which the defense at present is not. Just as you can't expect to win 10-9 ten or more times, you can't expect to win 49-45 ten times either. The linebackers on this team currently are just not even at replacement level.

the jags have their young qb on a rookie deal and are going all in on spending in free agency to get him weapons (signed lt to a big deal, signed kirk, signed scherff).  the lions are paying goff $30 million and arent on that path.

that's not to say it will work out for them (although i dont think its totally stupid like some seem to), but their trajectory is different than detroit's because they have their young qb.

[buddha]

2 minutes ago, NYLion said:

Yes, you're correct. Filed into the large list of Lion fuck ups regardless.

a fuck up when they made the trade and drafted a guard and then they doubled down on the fuck up by trading him for nothing and then he got good.

typical lions.

[RandyMarsh]

I remember being pissed they traded down when Shane Ray was on the board. Yeah that's like exhibit million why I shouldn't get upset when the team passes on somebody I like predraft. 

[buddha]

not only did they double down and trade tomlinson right when he got good, they also traded a pick they got in the the tomlinson deal in order to trade back up in the draft to take alex carter.

one of the picks they used to make that trade turned out to be danielle hunter.

oh, and if that werent bad enough, one of the picks they traded to get haloti ngata that year turned out to be z'darius smith.

there's a reason why mayhew was fired.

[MichiganCardinal]

55 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

When was the last time the Lions traded up like this in the 1st round? I feel like they traded from the early 2nd to late 1st to draft Best and I believe that trade was with Minnesota or to get ahead of Minnesota. 

Last time they traded up in the 1st round was also with Minny, in 2010, going from #34 to #30 for Jahvid Best. The Vikings selected Chris Cook (CB) at #34, who didn't survive his rookie contract and is long out of football now. There was also the Roy Williams trade in 2009 where the Lions sent Williams and a 7th Rounder to the Cowboys for a 1st, 3rd, and 6th Round pick, and then managed to screw up fleecing the Cowboys by selecting Brandon Pettigrew, Derrick Williams, and Aaron Brown.

I did some looking back out of curiosity. In 1999, they traded #39 (plus a 3rd and 5th) to the Dolphins to move up to #27 and select Aaron Gibson (OT), who did not last. The Dolphins selected JJ Johnson (RB) at #39, and he did not last either.Beyond that though, nothing even approaches this level of first round aggressiveness in Lions history.

Edited April 29, 2022 by MichiganCardinal

[MichiganCardinal]

32 minutes ago, buddha said:

the jags have their young qb on a rookie deal and are going all in on spending in free agency to get him weapons (signed lt to a big deal, signed kirk, signed scherff).  the lions are paying goff $30 million and arent on that path.

that's not to say it will work out for them (although i dont think its totally stupid like some seem to), but their trajectory is different than detroit's because they have their young qb.

It's fair to say their priorities are different, but I also think the way the Jags are managing having a young QB is heading towards TLaw getting the hell out of dodge when his rookie contract is up.

[buddha]

6 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

It's fair to say their priorities are different, but I also think the way the Jags are managing having a young QB is heading towards TLaw getting the hell out of dodge when his rookie contract is up.

if there is one organization (other than detroit) who will definitely fuck up a career, its jacksonville under shad khan.