gehringer_2 Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, chasfh said: I agree that Trump cannot win a free and fair election. you are a lot more optimisitic than I am. I can easily see enough of the Democratic electorate thinking 'Defense of democracy' is old news - been there done that and Tuesday is my busy day, and blowing off voting in '24. It's not like they don't have a proven history of it. Edited May 31, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigeraholic1 Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 I just don't see him getting the EC. Yeah he might get most red states but purple highly unlikely. Remember he still has to make a fool of himself through the whole election cycle. Debates, town halls etc.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said: Pretty easy to connect the dots here. The Saudis would love intelligence on Iran, particularly nuclear intelligence, and the $2 billion to Kushner and the tournament at Trump's golf course is payment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted May 31, 2023 Author Share Posted May 31, 2023 1 hour ago, Tiger337 said: Why not? I don’t see him winning over people who voted against him before; and I don’t see people scared shirtless of him being elected again, of which there are a lot, staying home; and I don’t think there are a lot of previously unengaged people coming out to vote for the first time for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, chasfh said: I don’t see him winning over people who voted against him before; and I don’t see people scared shirtless of him being elected again, of which there are a lot, staying home; and I don’t think there are a lot of previously unengaged people coming out to vote for the first time for him. I do think a certain percentage of people who voted against him before could stay home this time. They voted for Biden and things got no better for them, so they'll just throw up their hands and say they they all suck, so why bother. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 Democrats have overperformed in just about every election since the insurrection. I do think Trump will motivate people to vote against him. I also think the Trump appeal is waning some. I do think it's also possible people who reluctantly voted for him in 2020 will stay home as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: I do think a certain percentage of people who voted against him before could stay home this time. They voted for Biden and things got no better for them, so they'll just throw up their hands and say they they all suck, so why bother. It not about changing minds as much as turnout. What is easy to lose track of is that Trump got 8 million more votes in his *loss* in 2020 than in his 2016 win *after* his demonstably feckless presidential performance. He got more votes than the dems cast to elect Obama either time. So Trump has proven he can outpoll a 'normal' Democratic winning vote. It took a turnout not seen in my lifetime for Biden to get to 80 million votes. I'd love to be sanguine that those people all stay energized as they were 4 yrs ago, and that Trump has burned enough bridges since Nov 2020 election to have tarnished the allure that got him 74 million votes, but I can't say I have any particular reason to believe either. And I worry about the Dem side voter's tendency toward "we already fixed that problem" thinking. Edited May 31, 2023 by gehringer_2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 (edited) And just as an evidentiary note, if the 81 million that voted for Biden had still been energized in 2022, McCarthy would still be minority leader. Edited May 31, 2023 by gehringer_2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted May 31, 2023 Author Share Posted May 31, 2023 2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: you are a lot more optimisitic than I am. I can easily see enough of the Democratic electorate thinking 'Defense of democracy' is old news - been there done that and Tuesday is my busy day, and blowing off voting in '24. It's not like they don't have a proven history of it. Counterpoint: surprising Democratic turnout in 2022, an off-election year. I’ll say one thing for MAGA: they can sure turn out the other side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted May 31, 2023 Author Share Posted May 31, 2023 29 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: And just as an evidentiary note, if the 81 million that voted for Biden had still been energized in 2022, McCarthy would still be minority leader. Are you really criticizing voters for not turning out in the past midterms in the same numbers that they did in the biggest-turnout election in sixty years? Come on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 40 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: And just as an evidentiary note, if the 81 million that voted for Biden had still been energized in 2022, McCarthy would still be minority leader. McCarthy is still leader because voters in New York and California didn't turn out, two states that Biden will win with ease. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 Democrats won in states that matter. It was a bloodbath for Republicans in Michigan. Marlinga who had no support at all came within 0.5% of beating James who was very well funded after running two senate campaigns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 1 hour ago, chasfh said: I don’t see him winning over people who voted against him before; and I don’t see people scared shirtless of him being elected again, of which there are a lot, staying home; and I don’t think there are a lot of previously unengaged people coming out to vote for the first time for him. If anything... There will be depletion of Trump's aging and dying (sorry to be impolitic) supporters and a new 4-year addition of young voters who are extremely (90% rate I believe it is) anti-Trump. And of conservative voters who he got in 2020 but can NOT stomach Jan 6th (however great or few that those voters are...). He is not gaining voters, he is losing them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archie Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 You guys are assuming all the people that voted for Slo Joe in 2020 will vote for him again. A lot of people won't support him and some dems don't want him to run. His term so far can only be considered by people not wearing blinders as a disaster. Inflation out of control, cost of goods skyrocketing, open borders, Afghanistan pullout debacle and the list goes on and on. Even his VP is terrible and brings nothing to the table. The only people who benefited from his term besides his family are people illegally in the country and they are not supposed to vote. At least Jimmy Carter can go to his grave knowing he is only the second worst POTUS in history now that Bejing Biden has the top spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 11 minutes ago, Archie said: You guys are assuming all the people that voted for Slo Joe in 2020 will vote for him again. A lot of people won't support him and some dems don't want him to run. His term so far can only be considered by people not wearing blinders as a disaster. Inflation out of control, cost of goods skyrocketing, open borders, Afghanistan pullout debacle and the list goes on and on. Even his VP is terrible and brings nothing to the table. The only people who benefited from his term besides his family are people illegally in the country and they are not supposed to vote. At least Jimmy Carter can go to his grave knowing he is only the second worst POTUS in history now that Bejing Biden has the top spot. How did his party ever manage to hold onto the Senate then? How did they win in swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin? How is that Trump going to win them back? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archie Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 20 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: How did his party ever manage to hold onto the Senate then? How did they win in swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin? How is that Trump going to win them back? I don’t think Trump will be the nominee. Most of you here think he already has it wrapped up but I don’t think its the case. Dems want him to win and I think a lot of dems will run election interference and vote for Trump in the Primary’s. I think DeSantis and Scott will be the main contenders but who knows. Christie and Pence are supposed to be in but they are a waste of people’s money. Neither are good or viable candidates. A good campaign can win a lot of voters back. A lot of voters are low information people that go off rumor and bad information. My parents were like until I explained to them not to listen to just one side and get the whole picture. It all came to a head with them when they said they had to vote for Hillary or they would lose their health care. Dems like scare tactics and not facts. Also the “Only Trump” voters need to see the big picture. 2024 is all about one thing and that is winning. Republicans need to nominate the best candidate to win. Trump divides the party and turns supporters off so he loses too many votes. That’s why dems want him to be the nominee. He might be the only candidate that Biden can beat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, chasfh said: Are you really criticizing voters for not turning out in the past midterms in the same numbers that they did in the biggest-turnout election in sixty years? Come on. wasn't losing control of either chamber still important under the current conditions with a renegade SCOTUS and the House GOP party being outright crazy?. You are exactly right, the conventional thing happened, but that's also my point, if the conventional thing happens in 2024 for Dem turnout, Trump could win easily. I'm not predicting disaster, but damn - nobody can afford to get one bit complacent because TFG has a path back as wide as Broadway if they do. Edited May 31, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 13 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: wasn't losing control of either chamber still important under the current conditions with a renegade SCOTUS and the House GOP party being outright crazy?. You are exactly right, the conventional thing happened, but that's also my point, if the conventional thing happens in 2024 for Dem turnout, Trump could win easily. I'm not predicting disaster, but damn - nobody can afford to get one bit complacent because TFG has a path back as wide as Broadway if they do. Dem turnout was poor in big blue states like New York and California. Biden isn't losing New York and California. Dem turnout was good however in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Archie said: You guys are assuming all the people that voted for Slo Joe in 2020 will vote for him again. A lot of people won't support him and some dems don't want him to run. His term so far can only be considered by people not wearing blinders as a disaster. Inflation out of control, cost of goods skyrocketing, open borders, Afghanistan pullout debacle and the list goes on and on. Even his VP is terrible and brings nothing to the table. The only people who benefited from his term besides his family are people illegally in the country and they are not supposed to vote. At least Jimmy Carter can go to his grave knowing he is only the second worst POTUS in history now that Bejing Biden has the top spot. Getting Trump out of there was addition by subtraction. He was the worst President and human being of my lifetime and it's not even close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 34 minutes ago, Archie said: Dems want him to win and I think a lot of dems will run election interference and vote for Trump in the Primary’s. don't see this at all unless a much much stronger candidate arises. That person is not on the scene yet. I can't see Dems crossing over in primaries for Trump unless there is someone out there with a bigger potential to win the general than Trump and we are a long way from that so far. If anything Dems would cross over for any moderate that might be on a state ballot just to thwart Trump and hedge their bets against a Dem general loss - assuming they have nothing interesting on their side of the ballot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 Biden has been a spectacular success. I don't care what Foxnews or the other idea makers in the mainstream media want me to think. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighOPS Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 Were you workshopping Slo Joe and Beijing Biden? Neither has that Little Marco or Low Energy Jeb vibe. They don't have that direct, simple attack on traditional masculinity the MAGA faithful need. You still have another year and a half though. You can do it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor City Sonics Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 5 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: And just as an evidentiary note, if the 81 million that voted for Biden had still been energized in 2022, McCarthy would still be minority leader. Midterms are supposed to be slam-dunk for the opposing party to the President. The Republicans were supposed to win by a huge margin, but they squeaked it out. They won the house, but it was very close to being a disaster. The hate stuff and anti-abortion stuff will motivate people to fight against it. Call him SloJoe all you want, but let me know when he asks if people can drink bleach to fight off a virus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said: Midterms are supposed to be slam-dunk for the opposing party to the President. The Republicans were supposed to win by a huge margin, but they squeaked it out. They won the house, but it was very close to being a disaster. The hate stuff and anti-abortion stuff will motivate people to fight against it. Call him SloJoe all you want, but let me know when he asks if people can drink bleach to fight off a virus. I'm just saying, while the Dems have exceeded their expectation on turnouts, they have to remember that when Trump was on the ballot the GOP did too. Much like the midterm paradigm is conventional wisdom, it's also political standard wisdom that once you have to govern, you going to make some people who voted for you mad by something you did and thus you are going to lose them the 2nd time around -- e.g Obama got a few million fewer votes in '12 than '08. I hope very much that it is even more true that people that voted for Trump in 2020 have soured on him since, but I have no proof they have. I will say people have been posted bits from Fox where they seem to be giving the GOP a little more push back. If there is actually any trend there it could be significant. Edited June 1, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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