The Idiocracy of Donald J. Trump

[mtutiger]

55 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

OR...

Something monumental happens that creates a VERY FAST/ SWIFT change, like:

Civil rights (the South switched fast from Dems to Republicans as a result)

Overturning Roe v Wade. The suburbs are changing FAST, right now, due specifically to this.

Yeah, I think the actual election results on last Tuesday are pretty instructive there. Particularly in Pennsylvania (which is a pretty important state in Presidential politics, last I checked), where the GOP got absolutely routed in the Supreme Court election and downballot.

And while I know that the Presidential election will feature a different electorate than the one that voted on 11/7, I don't think the margin there is only explainable because of differential turnout; it's a factor, but PA is a state with partisan voter registration and the GOP had an edge in turnout on 11/7. And still lost pretty sizably. (Which is an example of why persuasion matters).

[mtutiger]

42 minutes ago, oblong said:

how much of it is also due to migration and surburan and exurban expansion?  What used to be farmland is now subdivision after subdivisions of new housing.  The people who lived in the cities in 1940 now live in what was "the boonies".

 

Definitely part of it..... of course, some of the GOP's gains in rural areas in the Midwest can also be explainable due outward migration as well.

[chasfh]

20 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Now, I've been on that train with you from the start... Actually, starting in 2015 when he first announced. In the seat right next to ya'...

 

I think this will happen faster:

As soon as Republicans start losing vast amounts of political seats/ power. Some of that has already occurred. If that trickle becomes a flood then the Republican party swiftly implodes from infighting, and Establishment versus MAGA - which has already started in some cases - but the end of the Republican Party creates The MAGA Party and the No Labels Party as a result... It won't take decades for this to happen, it's already begun... See: Kevin McCarthy. And: Never-Trumpers. And: No Labels. And: Manchin's attempt to pull in Centrists (which will be Never-Trumpers or Establishment Republicans (probably the same thing), No Labels, Independents, maybe even Libertarians without the fringy/ cringy element) into some kind of coherence. 

You think it'll happen next year because normal politics. I think it'll take decades because normal politics itself will be upended and suspended once the radical right wing takes over.

And I don't even mean Trump, necessarily: he's not the alpha and omega of the whole thing. He's more like the celebrity spokesman who makes it all look tough and cool and accessible to those culturally predisposed to MAGA. But even if Trump loses or dies, the movement won't die with him. He'll just be held up as a martyr to its cause, and in his martyred name, at some point, the radical-right-wing takeover is going to happen. And they don't even have to have a military coup or anything like that, because people will just vote them right in, because people don't know things, and they will need catharsis to actually learn lessons like this. That's in part why we will need truth and reconciliation at the end of it.

[Tiger337]

I never had any doubts that Trump was trash.  I knew it the first time I heard him talk over 40 years ago.  He represents everything that sucks about people.  

[chasfh]

21 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I can see over the coming decades the country is going to weaken if people continue to reject science, education, logic and any motivation to find the truth.  And another four years of Trump is not going to help!  My point is that we aren't going to go into an irreversible authoritarian dictatorship in four years, nor is a Biden victory going to fix anything.  It would just prolong the malaise and the impending sense of doom.  Americans are a shallow, unserious bunch.  Maybe we need some dark times to make us smarter.  I don't know.  

So where and how does the relentless drumbeat of malaise and impending doom break? Or do things just continue to get worse indefinitely, for hundreds or thousands of years or more, without ever breaking, because it's a human condition for things to eternally get progressively worse at the same unchanging rate?

[Tiger337]

The climate change crowd tells me we're all doomed anyway.  So, maybe there is no hope.  Give the dinosaurs another shot!  And I am not talking about MAGA when I say dinosaurs.  😃

[chasfh]

24 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I don't consider my position to be alarmist at all, FWIW. I actually don't even think my viewpoint has changed much from times on this board when I've argued positions that seem less alarmist.

My thing is that I'm just going to judge content for what it is and not engage in parsing it or explaining it away as "Trump being Trump" or some stuff.

I remember on MTS in 2016 that the default position, borne of the ennui of cynicism, was that Trump will become just another politician in Washington, because that's what Washington does to everyone, and that no one can escape that. I don't know whether that was you as well, but that was most people, even though Trump was talking in much the same vein then as he does now, so his trajectory was not all that difficult to suss out.

[1984Echoes]

27 minutes ago, chasfh said:

... I think it'll take decades because normal politics itself will be upended and suspended once the radical right wing takes over...

They don't have the numbers...

If they use violence, that dynamic changes...

If I'm hoping for anything it's that, no violence.

Then, democracy wins.

[chasfh]

7 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

The climate change crowd tells me we're all doomed anyway.  So, maybe there is no hope.  Give the dinosaurs another shot!  And I am not talking about MAGA when I say dinosaurs.  😃

lol.

So, bottom line, your answer appears to be, it will never stop and it can continue forever without breaking. Just looking even cursorily at history, I don't think that's even possible, that tensions can simply continue to stretch and stretch and stretch even more, like some sort of unbreakable rubber band, forever. Something is going to happen, it's all going to break, it's going to happen unbelievably suddenly, and the likelihood is high that a lot of blood will be shed.

What I don't believe we will have is an American-style geographic civil war, which is really the only context Americans have for contemplating what a domestic civil war would even look like. (The war in the 1860s wasn't even an actual civil war, in any event. It was a war of two nation states, with one fighting and failing to establish its legitimacy.)

I don't even think we will have a true civil war, the kind where neighbors fight house-to-house and in pitched battle with one another, basically because one side is practically unarmed by choice, while the other side is just itching to use their weapons. Because of that, I believe what we will experience is something closer to Rwanda circa 1994.

[mtutiger]

14 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I remember on MTS in 2016 that the default position, borne of the ennui of cynicism, was that Trump will become just another politician in Washington, because that's what Washington does to everyone, and that no one can escape that. I don't know whether that was you as well, but that was most people, even though Trump was talking in much the same vein then as he does now, so his trajectory was not all that difficult to suss out.

You're going WAY back here, but I'm even thinking to some of the dooming we saw a few years ago about Trump simply ignoring election results and the 2022 Midterms and possible SOS candidates who could mess with results in individual states (luckily, all those candidates lost in the competitive states). And yeah, I still think some of that is over the top.

But why there's this constant need to look for other meanings versus just judging the content for what it is, it feels like a lot of the same "take him seriously but not literally" stuff we've heard for years. And the same stuff that, often times, has been wrong.

January 6th was the one that really changed my views a lot there.... I was pretty sanguine going into that day, I didn't think that would happen. Most people didn't think that it would happen. And it did anyway.... despite that, we continue to just write off words as if they don't have meaning.

[1984Echoes]

5 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

... If they use violence, that dynamic changes...

If I'm hoping for anything it's that, no violence.

Then...

Ooops.

Spoke too soon...

[1984Echoes]

6 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

... despite that, we continue to just write off words as if they don't have meaning.

NOT just words...actual ACTIONS taken; such as Trump's march to the church using military to shove aside peaceful protesters, and as you've mentioned: Jan 6th.

Also, the separating of kids from their parents just to show he can treat them like ****. To prove a point. And several of those children died under unsanitary conditions that Trump/ Miller wanted them kept in...

 

 

 

Edited November 14, 2023 by 1984Echoes

[mtutiger]

29 minutes ago, chasfh said:

So where and how does the relentless drumbeat of malaise and impending doom break? 

I don't know the answer, but I can tell you that I interact with people from a variety of backgrounds in my day-to-day life and much of the ugliness we see online largely doesn't exist.

It leads me to believe that, to an extent, relentless drumbeat of malaise and impending doom is something we (collectively) do to ourselves by going online and engaging.

[chasfh]

8 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

They don't have the numbers...

If they use violence, that dynamic changes...

If I'm hoping for anything it's that, no violence.

Then, democracy wins.

I practically never summarize people directly, but good grief, aren't you just so giddily optimistic about everything! It must be a race in your mind as to what happens first in 2024: Trumpism is vanquished for good, or the Tigers win a ring! 🤣

Which, really, that is the best way to be, isn't it? Optimistic people are happier, and even if the optimism doesn't bear out, they are in the same boat, no worse, than anyone else. There's no penalty for being optimistic and wrong versus being pessimistic and right. So go on with your bad self, O-Man! Keep that sun shining here!

[chasfh]

2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I don't know the answer, but I can tell you that I interact with people from a variety of backgrounds in my day-to-day life and much of the ugliness we see online largely doesn't exist.

Maybe that provide some hope that right-wing radicalism will just melt away without incident and democracy will triumph.

[Tiger337]

10 minutes ago, chasfh said:

So, bottom line, your answer appears to be, it will never stop and it can continue forever without breaking. 

No. I didn't say that at all.  I just don't think things will happen quickly.  I don't expect a civil war as long as the economy is reasonably good.  Most people just want to live their lives.  I understand the angst that people have.  Trump is the first president in my life who I have viewed as an enemy and I don't want to give him any chances to do damage.  I just don't think things would happen as fast and as easily as you guys fear.   

[Tiger337]

7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I don't know the answer, but I can tell you that I interact with people from a variety of backgrounds in my day-to-day life and much of the ugliness we see online largely doesn't exist.

It leads me to believe that, to an extent, relentless drumbeat of malaise and impending doom is something we (collectively) do to ourselves by going online and engaging.

This is very true.  

[chasfh]

Just now, Tiger337 said:

No. I didn't say that at all.  I just don't think things will happen quickly.  I don't expect a civil war as long as the economy is reasonably good.  Most people just want to live their lives.  I understand the angst that people have.  Trump is the first president in my life who I have viewed as an enemy and I don't want to give him any chances to do damage.  I just don't think things would happen as fast and as easily as you guys fear.   

I know you didn't say that, directly and in so many words. But I asked you a direct question seeking an answer, you joked your way around and out of it, and so I made a reasonable inference. And FWIW, you still haven't answered it! But that's OK, because you kind of did.

[The Ronz]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

I don't know the answer, but I can tell you that I interact with people from a variety of backgrounds in my day-to-day life and much of the ugliness we see online largely doesn't exist.

That may be your experience but it certainly isn't mine.

Everyone I know is full on MAGA. Everyone I meet is full on MAGA.

There have been NO exceptions to this.

Two examples from this past summer:

At an event I met someone I went to high school with. Probably had  seen him only a few times since then.

After the initial "Long time! How ya doin?" greeting:

Him: Trump 2024! What are we going to do with all these transgender people?

Me: How do you think the Tigers will do?

Second person I had not seen in 40+ years. Called me out of the blue and wanted to meet. I agreed. We did.

After the initial "Long time! How ya doin?" greeting:

Him: Trump 2024! What are we going to do with all these transgender people?

Me: How do you think the Lions will do?

You all have NO idea what is coming. I could be wrong and hope I am but I don't think so.

[Tiger337]

7 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I know you didn't say that, directly and in so many words. But I asked you a direct question seeking an answer, you joked your way around and out of it, and so I made a reasonable inference. And FWIW, you still haven't answered it! But that's OK, because you kind of did.

If you want a binary answer - either expecting the inevitable civil war or blissfully thinking everything is just fine - then you will be disappointed.  

[Tiger337]

8 minutes ago, The Ronz said:

That may be your experience but it certainly isn't mine.

Everyone I know is full on MAGA. Everyone I meet is full on MAGA.

There have been NO exceptions to this.

Two examples from this past summer:

At an event I met someone I went to high school with. Probably had  seen him only a few times since then.

After the initial "Long time! How ya doin?" greeting:

Him: Trump 2024! What are we going to do with all these transgender people?

Me: How do you think the Tigers will do?

Second person I had not seen in 40+ years. Called me out of the blue and wanted to meet. I agreed. We did.

After the initial "Long time! How ya doin?" greeting:

Him: Trump 2024! What are we going to do with all these transgender people?

Me: How do you think the Lions will do?

You all have NO idea what is coming. I could be wrong and hope I am but I don't think so.

You need some new friends.  😀 

Most people I know are either softcore MAGA, socialists or don't give a **** about politics.  

[The Ronz]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

You need some new friends.  😀 

I agree with you there!

Carlos Pena still sucks tho. 😉

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

You think it'll happen next year because normal politics. I think it'll take decades because normal politics itself will be upended and suspended once the radical right wing takes over.

And I don't even mean Trump, necessarily: he's not the alpha and omega of the whole thing. He's more like the celebrity spokesman who makes it all look tough and cool and accessible to those culturally predisposed to MAGA. But even if Trump loses or dies, the movement won't die with him. He'll just be held up as a martyr to its cause, and in his martyred name, at some point, the radical-right-wing takeover is going to happen. And they don't even have to have a military coup or anything like that, because people will just vote them right in, because people don't know things, and they will need catharsis to actually learn lessons like this. That's in part why we will need truth and reconciliation at the end of it.

Individual leaders and their personalities are important, I wouldn't underestimate that. The forces that Trump is riding are certainly bigger than he is, but they don't need to be channeled in the direction he takes them. I think we all agree the issue is the sense of disenfranchisement felt by large a swath of mostly the non-college educated population. But political nihilism isn't the only program that could channel that. Another movement could catch the loyalty of those people that had a far different set of priorities. 

Personally my biggest fear is over the country simply becoming less and less able to think intelligently. The educational system, the media, and even the business establishment, are failing miserably at producing, preparing, a population capable of making rational self-governance decisions. If we keep losing that, we are toast on all the other fronts anyway.

I tend to see it as the tribalism being basically a reflection of ignorance. To transcend your tribal identity means you have spend time and effort thinking through and understanding why there are values more important than just the short term win for your side. When people are no longer equipped to do that, it's over.

Edited November 14, 2023 by gehringer_2

[CMRivdogs]

6 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Personally my biggest fear is over the country simply becoming less and less able to think intelligently. The educational system, the media, and even the business establishment, are failing miserably at producing, preparing, a population capable of making rational self-governance decisions. If we keep losing that, we are toast on all the other fronts anyway.

This

[mtutiger]

17 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Personally my biggest fear is over the country simply becoming less and less able to think intelligently. The educational system, the media, and even the business establishment, are failing miserably at producing, preparing, a population capable of making rational self-governance decisions. If we keep losing that, we are toast on all the other fronts anyway.

I think the dialogue around inflation at this current point in time is pretty instructive.... by any objective measure, it is down significantly from it's highs (today's reading was right around 3.0%). But to say that it is down, when it is objectively down, means you aren't sympathetic with the plight of Americans who have been dealing with inflation, which means you are out of touch with reality and you need to shut up.

I'll leave the politics out of it (certainly I accept that there's a price being paid for inflation even happening in the first place), but at some level, collectively, as a population, we have responsibility to understand the nuance of these subjects and, yeah, I don't know that we are collectively where we need to be on that front.