mtutiger Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 (edited) 24 minutes ago, chasfh said: I think the issue is the political cost of going after his money in a heavy-handed manner, and feeding into his victim complex. Hey, I am all for bankrupting the mother****er, same as everyone else here is, but there is not just one guy or his (crime) family being affected here. It's his red hat army up to 100 million strong. They need to go after the money, for sure, but they can't do so while ignoring the potential for social chaos once they do. They have to take it into account and figure out a way to mitigate that. If the reaction to the actual ruling in the civil fraud trial is any indicator, I don't expect there to be rioters on the streets whenever the bill comes due. Edited February 20 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, ewsieg said: I'm not sure either, but it does worry me a bit that this Trump Org case and now the Bragg case looks like it's next.... I just think it'll be easy for Trump supporters to ignore it with simple but legitimate arguments like "of course he'll lose a fraud case when no one has been defrauded in a NYC court" and "really, Stormy Daniels still?" My concern is by the time GA comes around some on the fence GOP'ers might just ignore it. Hope not, but even as a never Trumper that thinks he's crooked as hell, I see that 300m+ fine and think it's a bit crazy. I kind of approach all of these cases, both the civil and criminal, from the view that committed Trump supporters aren't going to be persuaded by any of them. For what it's worth. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted February 20 Author Share Posted February 20 9 minutes ago, mtutiger said: If the reaction to the actual ruling in the civil fraud trial is any indicator, I don't expect there to be rioters on the streets whenever the bill comes due. Right, the likelihood is small, definitely way less than 50/50. But it would be essentially malfeasance to ignore taking it into account and not plan for possible related contingencies. And I believe there is also a non-zero chance that the state is frozen into inaction on going after him with great guns for the settlement money for fear of the potential blowback. Not high at all, but non-zero. I do think the most likely thing will be that New York goes after and gets all the money, and hardly any blood will be shed over it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 4 minutes ago, chasfh said: Right, the likelihood is small, definitely way less than 50/50. But it would be essentially malfeasance to ignore taking it into account and not plan for possible related contingencies. And I believe there is also a non-zero chance that the state is frozen into inaction on going after him with great guns for the settlement money for fear of the potential blowback. Not high at all, but non-zero. I do think the most likely thing will be that New York goes after and gets all the money, and hardly any blood will be shed over it. I will preface this by saying that I am in no way downplaying the threat of Trump or what would happen if he ended up back in office or saying that he cannot win (as the polls currently indicate, yes he can).... Having said that, nobody will admit it (partially because the media seems primarily focused on issues related to Biden), but his campaign seems incredibly low energy right now. He doesn't draw the same crowds that he used to, he himself stumbles and rambles a lot when he speaks (even more than in 2016 or 2020) and, speaking as someone who lives in a pretty conservative area and recently traveled for family to an even more conservative area, you don't see nearly as much paraphernalia out in the wild as you did four years ago. All of this is to say that I expect the State of New York to do what it's going to do and there will be zero blood shed on account of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted February 20 Author Share Posted February 20 Anybody else rooting for any or all of the verdicts to happen between July 18 and November 4? I kind of am ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Doesn't he have to bond the whole 300 some million in order to appeal? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 25 minutes ago, pfife said: Doesn't he have to bond the whole 300 some million in order to appeal? I believe I had read that, but maybe I'm misremembering. Interest continues to accrue on it as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, mtutiger said: I believe I had read that, but maybe I'm misremembering. Interest continues to accrue on it as well. FWIW Alina Habba was crying on Fox News that Trump would have to bond the whole thing to appeal. I don't count her as a reliable source though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I had heard that too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 hours ago, pfife said: Doesn't he have to bond the whole 300 some million in order to appeal? Yes. He does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Here's Laura Ingraham saying he has to put up the money and Trump says something incoherent. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Gross as it is, tells you how he's processing it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 (edited) 21 minutes ago, mtutiger said: Gross as it is, tells you how he's processing it I can believe he sees himself as persecuted in exactly the same way Navalny was....well, maybe except for the poisoning, the beatings, the jailings, the months of isolation, and the murder. But other than those petty details, *exactly* the same. Edited February 21 by gehringer_2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Gilmore Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 And the whole innocence/guilt thing. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: I can believe he sees himself as persecuted in exactly the same way Navalny was....well, maybe except for the poisoning, the beatings, the jailings, the months of isolation, and the murder. But other than those petty details, *exactly* the same. He may or may not actually think that. What matters to him is that his followers think that. He must be seen as infallible. Whether he has convinced himself of that, I don't know. There certainly seems to be a lot of pent up insecurity as is always the cases with braggarts and bullies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I think how the bond/fine is paid could be a real political gift to the Democrats. If someone helps him, such as another individual messaging from Democrats should be that trump would be unduly influenced by that someone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, pfife said: I think how the bond/fine is paid could be a real political gift to the Democrats. If someone helps him, such as another individual messaging from Democrats should be that trump would be unduly influenced by that someone Even if it's Republican donors or small $ donors... Focusing on his legal bills means that for this upcoming election... They're bankrupting themselves. $450 mill for legal bills and judgements and... How much is left over to pay for Toxic Trump's Curious Attempt at Another 4 Years? Donors and anyone with serious Republican money are fleeing and running... NOT walking... for the exits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, pfife said: I think how the bond/fine is paid could be a real political gift to the Democrats. If someone helps him, such as another individual messaging from Democrats should be that trump would be unduly influenced by that someone I just wonder if the legal stuff, especially if coupled with SCOTUS denying his appeal on immunity and allowing the J6 trial to go on, scares away donors as well. Like, the cost / benefit analysis on that for any large $$$ donor cannot be great if the candidate is gonna be sitting in courtrooms while traditional candidates are out on the campaign trail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 18 hours ago, mtutiger said: I kind of approach all of these cases, both the civil and criminal, from the view that committed Trump supporters aren't going to be persuaded by any of them. For what it's worth. For the Trump supporters now, you're absolutely correct. He's getting 30% of the vote regardless. Each party had about 10 % that doesn't pay attention but still usually votes for that party. I hope to pull as many of those folks away from Trump as possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 13 hours ago, mtutiger said: Gross as it is, tells you how he's processing it Translation: “Don’t talk about that, that’s not important, we should be talking about how the Biden Crime Government is treating me worse than Navalny …” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 11 hours ago, Tiger337 said: He may or may not actually think that. What matters to him is that his followers think that. He must be seen as infallible. Whether he has convinced himself of that, I don't know. There certainly seems to be a lot of pent up insecurity as is always the cases with braggarts and bullies. And goddamn it, it’s working. I blame Presbyterianism and its unshakable belief in a infallible, implacable, and muscular God who is lying in wait for the right moment to come to Earth to rain hellfire on the wicked and then reign over a dystopian Christofascist world for a thousand years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilerfan Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 15 hours ago, 1984Echoes said: Yes. He does. My understanding is he has to bond the full amount plus an estimated interest. So he would have to come up with well over $400 million. That is also true for the deformation case as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 hours ago, boilerfan said: My understanding is he has to bond the full amount plus an estimated interest. So he would have to come up with well over $400 million. That is also true for the defamation case as well. Bingo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romad1 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Fraud to avoid Fraud judgement Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smr-nj Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 3 hours ago, romad1 said: Fraud to avoid Fraud judgement At some point, these lawyers of his need to suffer consequences for their assistance in this fraud. Ridiculous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.