The Idiocracy of Donald J. Trump

[mtutiger]

  On 2/20/2024 at 7:03 PM, chasfh said:

I think the issue is the political cost of going after his money in a heavy-handed manner, and feeding into his victim complex. Hey, I am all for bankrupting the mother****er, same as everyone else here is, but there is not just one guy or his (crime) family being affected here. It's his red hat army up to 100 million strong.

They need to go after the money, for sure, but they can't do so while ignoring the potential for social chaos once they do. They have to take it into account and figure out a way to mitigate that.

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If the reaction to the actual ruling in the civil fraud trial is any indicator, I don't expect there to be rioters on the streets whenever the bill comes due.

Edited February 20, 2024 by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

  On 2/20/2024 at 5:44 PM, ewsieg said:

I'm not sure either, but it does worry me a bit that this Trump Org case and now the Bragg case looks like it's next.... I just think it'll be easy for Trump supporters to ignore it with simple but legitimate arguments like "of course he'll lose a fraud case when no one has been defrauded in a NYC court" and "really, Stormy Daniels still?"  My concern is by the time GA comes around some on the fence GOP'ers might just ignore it.   Hope not, but even as a never Trumper that thinks he's crooked as hell, I see that 300m+ fine and think it's a bit crazy.  

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I kind of approach all of these cases, both the civil and criminal, from the view that committed Trump supporters aren't going to be persuaded by any of them. For what it's worth.

[chasfh]

  On 2/20/2024 at 7:27 PM, mtutiger said:

If the reaction to the actual ruling in the civil fraud trial is any indicator, I don't expect there to be rioters on the streets whenever the bill comes due.

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Right, the likelihood is small, definitely way less than 50/50. But it would be essentially malfeasance to ignore taking it into account and not plan for possible related contingencies. And I believe there is also a non-zero chance that the state is frozen into inaction on going after him with great guns for the settlement money for fear of the potential blowback. Not high at all, but non-zero.

I do think the most likely thing will be that New York goes after and gets all the money, and hardly any blood will be shed over it.

[mtutiger]

  On 2/20/2024 at 7:40 PM, chasfh said:

Right, the likelihood is small, definitely way less than 50/50. But it would be essentially malfeasance to ignore taking it into account and not plan for possible related contingencies. And I believe there is also a non-zero chance that the state is frozen into inaction on going after him with great guns for the settlement money for fear of the potential blowback. Not high at all, but non-zero.

I do think the most likely thing will be that New York goes after and gets all the money, and hardly any blood will be shed over it.

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I will preface this by saying that I am in no way downplaying the threat of Trump or what would happen if he ended up back in office or saying that he cannot win (as the polls currently indicate, yes he can)....

Having said that, nobody will admit it (partially because the media seems primarily focused on issues related to Biden), but his campaign seems incredibly low energy right now. He doesn't draw the same crowds that he used to, he himself stumbles and rambles a lot when he speaks (even more than in 2016 or 2020) and, speaking as someone who lives in a pretty conservative area and recently traveled for family to an even more conservative area, you don't see nearly as much paraphernalia out in the wild as you did four years ago.

All of this is to say that I expect the State of New York to do what it's going to do and there will be zero blood shed on account of it.

[chasfh]

Anybody else rooting for any or all of the verdicts to happen between July 18 and November 4? I kind of am ...

[pfife]

Doesn't he have to bond the whole 300 some million in order to appeal?

[mtutiger]

  On 2/20/2024 at 9:01 PM, pfife said:

Doesn't he have to bond the whole 300 some million in order to appeal?

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I believe I had read that, but maybe I'm misremembering. 

Interest continues to accrue on it as well.

[Motown Bombers]

  On 2/20/2024 at 9:27 PM, mtutiger said:

I believe I had read that, but maybe I'm misremembering. 

Interest continues to accrue on it as well.

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FWIW Alina Habba was crying on Fox News that Trump would have to bond the whole thing to appeal. I don't count her as a reliable source though. 

[oblong]

I had heard that too. 

[1984Echoes]

  On 2/20/2024 at 9:01 PM, pfife said:

Doesn't he have to bond the whole 300 some million in order to appeal?

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Yes.

He does.

[Motown Bombers]

Here's Laura Ingraham saying he has to put up the money and Trump says something incoherent. 

 

[mtutiger]

Gross as it is, tells you how he's processing it

[gehringer_2]

  On 2/21/2024 at 1:12 AM, mtutiger said:

Gross as it is, tells you how he's processing it

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I can believe he sees himself as persecuted in exactly the same way Navalny was....well, maybe except for the poisoning, the beatings, the jailings, the months of isolation, and the murder. But other than those petty details,  *exactly* the same.

Edited February 21, 2024 by gehringer_2

[Dan Gilmore]

And the whole innocence/guilt thing.

[Tiger337]

  On 2/21/2024 at 1:33 AM, gehringer_2 said:

I can believe he sees himself as persecuted in exactly the same way Navalny was....well, maybe except for the poisoning, the beatings, the jailings, the months of isolation, and the murder. But other than those petty details,  *exactly* the same.

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He may or may not actually think that.  What matters to him is that his followers think that.  He must be seen as infallible.  Whether he has convinced himself of that, I don't know.  There certainly seems to be a lot of pent up insecurity as is always the cases with braggarts and bullies.  

[pfife]

I think how the bond/fine is paid could be a real political gift to the Democrats.  If someone helps him, such as another individual messaging from Democrats should be that trump would be unduly influenced by that someone

[1984Echoes]

  On 2/21/2024 at 3:13 AM, pfife said:

I think how the bond/fine is paid could be a real political gift to the Democrats.  If someone helps him, such as another individual messaging from Democrats should be that trump would be unduly influenced by that someone

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Even if it's Republican donors or small $ donors...

Focusing on his legal bills means that for this upcoming election...

They're bankrupting themselves.

$450 mill for legal bills and judgements and... How much is left over to pay for Toxic Trump's Curious Attempt at Another 4 Years?

Donors and anyone with serious Republican money are fleeing and running... NOT walking... for the exits.

[mtutiger]

  On 2/21/2024 at 3:13 AM, pfife said:

I think how the bond/fine is paid could be a real political gift to the Democrats.  If someone helps him, such as another individual messaging from Democrats should be that trump would be unduly influenced by that someone

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I just wonder if the legal stuff, especially if coupled with SCOTUS denying his appeal on immunity and allowing the J6 trial to go on, scares away donors as well.

Like, the cost / benefit analysis on that for any large $$$ donor cannot be great if the candidate is gonna be sitting in courtrooms while traditional candidates are out on the campaign trail.

[ewsieg]

  On 2/20/2024 at 7:33 PM, mtutiger said:

I kind of approach all of these cases, both the civil and criminal, from the view that committed Trump supporters aren't going to be persuaded by any of them. For what it's worth.

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For the Trump supporters now, you're absolutely correct.  He's getting 30% of the vote regardless.  Each party had about 10 % that doesn't pay attention but still usually votes for that party.  I hope to pull as many of those folks away from Trump as possible.

[chasfh]

  On 2/21/2024 at 1:12 AM, mtutiger said:

Gross as it is, tells you how he's processing it

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Translation: “Don’t talk about that, that’s not important, we should be talking about how the Biden Crime Government is treating me worse than Navalny …”

[chasfh]

  On 2/21/2024 at 2:54 AM, Tiger337 said:

He may or may not actually think that.  What matters to him is that his followers think that.  He must be seen as infallible.  Whether he has convinced himself of that, I don't know.  There certainly seems to be a lot of pent up insecurity as is always the cases with braggarts and bullies.  

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And goddamn it, it’s working.

I blame Presbyterianism and its unshakable belief in a infallible, implacable, and muscular God who is lying in wait for the right moment to come to Earth to rain hellfire on the wicked and then reign over a dystopian Christofascist world for a thousand years.

[boilerfan]

  On 2/21/2024 at 12:24 AM, 1984Echoes said:

Yes.

He does.

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My understanding is he has to bond the full amount plus an estimated interest.  So he would have to come up with well over $400 million.  That is also true for the deformation case as well.

[1984Echoes]

  On 2/21/2024 at 4:05 PM, boilerfan said:

My understanding is he has to bond the full amount plus an estimated interest.  So he would have to come up with well over $400 million.  That is also true for the defamation case as well.

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Bingo.

[romad1]

Fraud to avoid Fraud judgement

 

[smr-nj]

  On 2/23/2024 at 11:30 AM, romad1 said:

Fraud to avoid Fraud judgement

 

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At some point, these lawyers of his need to suffer consequences for their assistance in this fraud.  Ridiculous