gehringer_2 Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 42 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: So, what is it these democracy hating fools want? Do they want a dictatorship? An anarchy? You live in the most influential and wealthiest country in the world and you want to tear it all down and you think the alternative is going to better? How the hell does that work? It's all about control for the tribe. If you used to be a majority and are becoming a minority, majority rule suddenly doesn't seem like a such winning proposition any more. Lubricate that with the money of the capitalist class who doesn't really care about good government one way or the other but knows that the broader the level of participation of the public in government, the more constrained they are going to end up by regulation in the public interest that crimps their profits. So you have a malcontented class and a source of funds to drive the movement - so here we are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 The sad part is a lot of the MAGA’s I know rely on things like Medicare and Social Security. They complain about the high price of healthcare, but wait until they lose the bennies. Most of the ones who complain about the lack of so called Christian values rarely go to church. Those who do complain about leadership but do nothing to get involved in leadership. They won’t know what they’ve lost until it’s gone 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 36 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: It's all about control for the tribe. If you used to be a majority and are becoming a minority, majority rule suddenly doesn't seem like a such winning proposition any more. Lubricate that with the money of the capitalist class who doesn't really care about good government one way or the other but knows that the broader the level of participation of the public in government, the more constrained they are going to end up by regulation in the public interest that crimps their profits. So you have a malcontented class and a source of funds to drive the movement - so here we are. Oh, I know why the wealthy support Trump. They aren't the ones going to his KKK rallies though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 27 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Oh, I know why the wealthy support Trump. They aren't the ones going to his KKK rallies though. A movement takes money and bodies. The money and the bodies don't need to be the same people! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 4 hours ago, The Ronz said: Trump is going to win by a landslide. Both by popular vote and the Electoral College. All the people I know are ***DONE*** with Democracy. They do not want it in any way, shape or form. This includes young people voting for the first time right through those who are in their late 80's. They are completely done with America as we know it and want absolutely no part of it. There's always another choice... I have a good one for all the people you know: Siberia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 3 hours ago, Tiger337 said: I agree there is too much optimism in this forum with assuming that Biden is going to win. The polls are not backing it up. I have seen criticisms of the polls being biased in favor of Dump and that could be legitimate, but we should no way be assuming that Dump can't win. I think the topline in that poll is something to be concerned about, and that Trump can win more generally. Having said that, the crosstabs (particularly the methodology they used in collecting Hispanic numbers - hardly sampling any Spanish speaking Latinos) is pretty flawed. And a number of experts on that community have chimed in today to say that as well. I think he can win, and the toplines should be taken seriously. But drawing conclusions from crosstabs that are flawed is probably not a wise idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 8 minutes ago, mtutiger said: I think the topline in that poll is something to be concerned about, and that Trump can win more generally. Having said that, the crosstabs (particularly the methodology they used in collecting Hispanic numbers - hardly sampling any Spanish speaking Latinos) is pretty flawed. And a number of experts on that community have chimed in today to say that as well. I think he can win, and the toplines should be taken seriously. But drawing conclusions from crosstabs that are flawed is probably not a wise idea. Just to follow up on this: The crux here is that Univision did an entire poll on Hispanics that showed Biden +27 in September '23, this Times poll (which did not sample enough Spanish speaking Hispanics, who historically vote more Democratic than Hispanics as a whole) shows Trump leading +7. Hispanics as a cohort are an issue for Biden in 24, as he underperformed Clinton with this group in 20, particularly in South Florida and Texas. The Times sample is small and has a high MOE, but the likelihood of that group actually voting for Trump +7 is nonexistent. Again, I'll take the toplines at face value, according to polling, Trump would win if the election if it were held today most likely. But even if he does, there's zero chance the tabs look anything like the ones in this sample. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 (edited) There is one other aspect to this which is a little odd to me, and that is that Democratic Party leaders apparently don't believe the public polling either. They either have their own internal polling that contradicts it or maybe they are all just happy to whistle past the graveyard (always a possibility) but if a large swath of the party believed these polls I believe the grumbling about Biden would not just be grumbling at this point, it should have reached a cacophony. So there is mismatch there also. Edited March 3 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Both parties always think they are going to win. I know that's their public face, but I think they tend to convince themselves as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Another question I would be south FLA. The Cuban vote has been one of the most conservative segments of the Hispanic voting public, but they have also been the most staunchly pro-democracy/anti-dictator. Does Trump playing poodle to Putin drive Miami's Hispanic vote toward blue? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 1 hour ago, mtutiger said: Again, I'll take the toplines at face value, according to polling, Trump would win if the election if it were held today most likely For Biden to lose you have to posit that upwards 5-10 million Biden voters who were anti-Trump enough to come out in 2020 don't care enough to vote this time, despite Trump post 1/6/2021 having shown himself a much bigger threat than anyone imagined even on Nov 2, 2020, plus Dobbs in the meanwhile, plus 8 yrs of population roll-over toward Millennials/GenZ. Pretty hard to square all that with what the polls say. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 57 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: There is one other aspect to this which is a little odd to me, and that is that Democratic Party leaders apparently don't believe the public polling either. They either have their own internal polling that contradicts it or maybe they are all just happy to whistle past the graveyard (always a possibility) but if a large swath of the party believed these polls I believe the grumbling about Biden would not just be grumbling at this point, it should have reached a cacophony. So there is mismatch there also. Campaigns have access to much better data than any of us do, and I would be surprised if either Biden or Trump's campaign placed a lot of stock in any public polling data. Also, I know that the theory that Nate Cohn presents (which is unverifiable and unfalsifiable until the actual election hits) is that the issues arise more with low-propensity voters who tend not to show up in primaries, but I also think that if Biden were actually losing 1 in 4 AA voters (which would be an epochal shift for a group that hasn't given a GOP candidate more than 20% since Eisenhower), you probably would see at least some evidence of that in these primaries. And there just hasn't been a lot of evidence. Michigan is probably the test case because it wasn't a low turnout primary relative to a typical incumbent cycle, but some of Biden's best jurisdictions in the state were Pontiac, Southfield and Benton Harbor, all heavily AA with UC down in mid-single digits in each. Detroit was up there in this regard as well. It's going to be a close election one way or another, IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 (edited) 9 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: For Biden to lose you have to posit that upwards 5-10 million Biden voters who were anti-Trump enough to come out in 2020 don't care enough to vote this time, despite Trump post 1/6/2021 having shown himself a much bigger threat than anyone imagined even on Nov 2, 2020, plus Dobbs in the meanwhile, plus 8 yrs of population roll-over toward Millennials/GenZ. Pretty hard to square all that with what the polls say. It's worth noting that the Times poll today had a R+5 sample, compared to their last one (which had Biden 46-44 with LVs) where the sample was essentially tied (iirc). That doesn't mean that the poll is wrong, but it supposes a pretty Republican leaning electorate. The takeaway from that should be that Biden has work to do to consolidate support behind him among base and anti-Trump groups of voters, and to the extent that anything concerns me from this poll, it is that. Edited March 3 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 41 minutes ago, mtutiger said: It's worth noting that the Times poll today had a R+5 sample and this is the key and why all the polling in recent cycles is just so much guess work. 17 million more Dems came out in 2020 compared to 2012. It's almost pointless to bother asking the poll question once you pick the Dem/Rep sample ratio, you've already picked your answer because no-one's mind is changing. It's all about and only about the turnout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 (edited) 27 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: and this is the key and why all the polling in recent cycles is just so much guess work. 17 million more Dems came out in 2020 compared to 2012. It's almost pointless to bother asking the poll question once you pick the Dem/Rep sample ratio, you've already picked your answer because no-one's mind is changing. It's all about and only about the turnout. 2020 probably haunts a lot of pollsters given how it was a high profile miss, and I suspect that informs their work this cycle. Especially in terms of gauging turnout. Personally, I think it's going to slip for both sides to an extent... it really comes down to who can consolidate their base and whether Biden's campaign (similar to many D candidates in 2022 races) can successfully persuade some voters to cross over. Edited March 3 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Apparently trump said in a rally in Virginia yesterday that he will be removing federal funding from public schools that require vaccinations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 3 Author Share Posted March 3 On 3/2/2024 at 3:27 PM, Tiger337 said: So, what is it these democracy hating fools want? Do they want a dictatorship? An anarchy? You live in the most influential and wealthiest country in the world and you want to tear it all down and you think the alternative is going to better? How the hell does that work? They want to live in America as the dominant race, just as their forebears from the Greatest Generation and before did. They want to do whatever they want to anyone they want any time they want, and they want their perfect version of government, permanently installed and immune from ouster, to support them. They want to be able to coerce people they don't like or respect to labor for them for cheap or, where possible, for free. They want a single state Presbyterian religion. They want might to make right. In short, they want to Make America Great Again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 3 Author Share Posted March 3 On 3/2/2024 at 3:27 PM, Tiger337 said: So, what is it these democracy hating fools want? Do they want a dictatorship? An anarchy? You live in the most influential and wealthiest country in the world and you want to tear it all down and you think the alternative is going to better? How the hell does that work? Also, they will flatly deny that the United States is the most influential or wealthiest country in the world right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted March 3 Author Share Posted March 3 20 hours ago, mtutiger said: Again, I'll take the toplines at face value, according to polling, Trump would win if the election if it were held today most likely. But even if he does, there's zero chance the tabs look anything like the ones in this sample. Trump would win the election if it were held today only if we woke up to learn that a snap election were called for today so vote now or forever hold your peace, and no one has a chance to put much thought into their vote. I reject the ideas that most people hate democracy, that Americans are chronically apathetic about everything all the time, and that what we see today in polls is exactly how people are going to vote in eight months. Trump has a super-energized fan base tuned into him 24-7, so hell yes they're gonna show up for polling. Most other people won't even think about the election until at least October, and based on the last three cycles in which Republicans were predicted for months ahead of time that they were going to trounce Democrats only to end up losing in the end, I believe that once people start paying attention to what they are being asked to vote for, just like the last three times, they will be horrified by the choice on the right and will pull to lever for the choice on the left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 42 minutes ago, chasfh said: Trump would win the election if it were held today only if we woke up to learn that a snap election were called for today so vote now or forever hold your peace, and no one has a chance to put much thought into their vote. I reject the ideas that most people hate democracy, that Americans are chronically apathetic about everything all the time, and that what we see today in polls is exactly how people are going to vote in eight months. Trump has a super-energized fan base tuned into him 24-7, so hell yes they're gonna show up for polling. Most other people won't even think about the election until at least October, and based on the last three cycles in which Republicans were predicted for months ahead of time that they were going to trounce Democrats only to end up losing in the end, I believe that once people start paying attention to what they are being asked to vote for, just like the last three times, they will be horrified by the choice on the right and will pull to lever for the choice on the left. I agree with you, there's a long way to go. Part of the issue is that the NYT/Siena poll has become almost a news story in and of itself, so much so that it overshadows the actual average of polls which, including ones released today, show this thing about a Trump +2 advantage (not Trump +5 as Siena had). It's still pretty early, and ground really hasn't been broken on the general election campaign, the fundamentals (incumbency and money in particular) are pretty decent advantages to Biden. But while I suspect they were waiting until Super Tuesday to do much, I do think we are at a point regardless where they need to shift into general election mode and start prosecuting the case. Abortion, and the fact that voters don't really associate Trump enough with his handpicked justices who made Roe being overturned possible, is a good place to start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 (edited) 59 minutes ago, chasfh said: Trump would win the election if it were held today only if we woke up to learn that a snap election were called for today so vote now or forever hold your peace, and no one has a chance to put much thought into their vote. I reject the ideas that most people hate democracy, that Americans are chronically apathetic about everything all the time, and that what we see today in polls is exactly how people are going to vote in eight months. Trump has a super-energized fan base tuned into him 24-7, so hell yes they're gonna show up for polling. Most other people won't even think about the election until at least October, and based on the last three cycles in which Republicans were predicted for months ahead of time that they were going to trounce Democrats only to end up losing in the end, I believe that once people start paying attention to what they are being asked to vote for, just like the last three times, they will be horrified by the choice on the right and will pull to lever for the choice on the left. I will absolutely admit that where I live is not any indication of the country as a whole, yet even given the skewness of the my sample experience, adding it to everything I see and hear from the wider media, I just don't get the impression that the Democratic energy that brought 82M to the polls for Biden 4 years ago has faded at all. If anything it has morphed into a quiet but steely "never again" resolve. I don't know why it doesn't show in the polls but I tend to doubt the polls more than public on this one. I guess we find out in 8 months. Edited March 3 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 I still fear that the record turnout that gave Biden the win in 2020 may not happen this time around due to recency bias. Some of the turnout was due to social issues, but I believe a lot of it was due to Trump getting blamed for Covid. That was a miseable time for the country. Watching the President act like a complete moron during a historical national crisis can be convincing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: .... Watching the President act like a complete moron during a historical national crisis can be convincing. He still acts like a ****ing moron on a daily basis, or worse. His name is also now synonymous with moronic **** show wannabe fascism. Even if a lot of people aren't paying attention right now... I don't think it will take much for people to motivate themselves once they hear, even once, in any manner possible, Donald Trump is on the ballot for President again. I hope their reaction is the same as mine when he announced himself as a candidate in 2015: "AWE **** NO! NO ****ING WAY! NO POSSIBLE ****ING WAY THIS GROTESQUE SCUMBAG MF'ER CAN WIN THE PRESIDENCY! **** NO!" Edited March 3 by 1984Echoes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 20 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: He still acts like a ****ing moron on a daily basis, or worse. His name is also now synonymous with moronic **** show wannabe fascism. Even if a lot of people aren't paying attention right now... I don't think it will take much for people to motivate themselves once they hear, even once, in any manner possible, Donald Trump is on the ballot for President again. I hope their reaction is the same as mine when he announced himself as a candidate in 2015: "AWE **** NO! NO ****ING WAY! NO POSSIBLE ****ING WAY THIS GROTESQUE SCUMBAG MF'ER CAN WIN THE PRESIDENCY! **** NO!" The difference is people are not turning on their TV to find out what the President is saying about Covid and hearing him suggest that it might be a good idea to inject ourselves with disinfectant. It's pretty stunning to hear a President say that especially during a crisis. I don't think most people follow the moronic hateful things he says on a daily basis now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 1 hour ago, Tiger337 said: I still fear that the record turnout that gave Biden the win in 2020 may not happen this time around due to recency bias. Some of the turnout was due to social issues, but I believe a lot of it was due to Trump getting blamed for Covid. That was a miseable time for the country. Watching the President act like a complete moron during a historical national crisis can be convincing. I share that concern but I am hopeful the Dobbs effect can offset it. I also am of the belief that the BLM and defund the police protests did some damage to Biden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.