The Idiocracy of Donald J. Trump

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

... if this guy is not stopped and ends up running in 2024, and actually wins, then this country is ...

No longer a Democracy.

No longer the United States of America.

A Fascist Dictatorship.

Flush the Constitution of the United States right down the toilet since Trump will be shitting all over it on a daily basis anyways...

[Motor City Sonics]

10 hours ago, chasfh said:

Christ on a cracker, if this guy is not stopped and ends up running in 2024, and actually wins, then this country is truly fucked, and it won’t come back for any of us in any of our lifetimes.

tl;dr: stop this guy already.

fucked is the perfect description.  sorry if the word offends people.    I am trying to save as much money as I can right now because if he wins, I am out of here.  Not going to be around for what happens.    It will be the last election for a very long time.  

[chasfh]

The thing the most concerns me whenever this kind of thing comes up, a thing that’s supposed to finally bring TFG down, is that what will happen is what always ends up happening: Republicans dismiss it as a partisan political hit job, they gum up the works to prevent real action, and Democrats have no effective answer for any of that. Hit reset button and repeat.

Meanwhile, we’re running out of time. We’ve got basically a year to fix this, because if this strain of Republican takes over in Congress, as they have in many states, then democracy will actually be on the clock, as it is in those states. And once they remake the judiciary, that’s when democracy will be over.

[pfife]

About the 44% support for him running in the GOP, I totally and thoroughly do not believe that number.   I get that polling is probably the best we can do to measure this sort of thing, but before 2020 I was a proponent of the notion that there is hidden support for Trump that is not reflected in polling and that was totally true... by a lot.   I am to the point now here I treat any polling regarding Trump with a huge grain of salt and always assume it is underestimating.

I don't mean to denigrate polling in any way - I spent the beginning of my career at a prestigious survey institute.  I buy into it.   But something clearly isn't right with respect to polling on Trump and it's obvious.

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, pfife said:

About the 44% support for him running in the GOP, I totally and thoroughly do not believe that number.   I get that polling is probably the best we can do to measure this sort of thing, but before 2020 I was a proponent of the notion that there is hidden support for Trump that is not reflected in polling and that was totally true... by a lot.   I am to the point now here I treat any polling regarding Trump with a huge grain of salt and always assume it is underestimating.

I don't mean to denigrate polling in any way - I spent the beginning of my career at a prestigious survey institute.  I buy into it.   But something clearly isn't right with respect to polling on Trump and it's obvious.

the evidence seems to support your view.

[romad1]

2 hours ago, pfife said:

About the 44% support for him running in the GOP, I totally and thoroughly do not believe that number.   I get that polling is probably the best we can do to measure this sort of thing, but before 2020 I was a proponent of the notion that there is hidden support for Trump that is not reflected in polling and that was totally true... by a lot.   I am to the point now here I treat any polling regarding Trump with a huge grain of salt and always assume it is underestimating.

I don't mean to denigrate polling in any way - I spent the beginning of my career at a prestigious survey institute.  I buy into it.   But something clearly isn't right with respect to polling on Trump and it's obvious.

Shy bigot syndrome

[smr-nj]

So I see things are still as depressing as hell around here in a political forum. LOL

hello ladies and gentlemen! 😁

[romad1]

5 minutes ago, smr-nj said:

So I see things are still as depressing as hell around here in a political forum. LOL

hello ladies and gentlemen! 😁

howdy

[The Ronz]

52 minutes ago, smr-nj said:

hello ladies and gentlemen! 😁

Damn! She found us!  😁

[ewsieg]

4 hours ago, pfife said:

About the 44% support for him running in the GOP, I totally and thoroughly do not believe that number.   I get that polling is probably the best we can do to measure this sort of thing, but before 2020 I was a proponent of the notion that there is hidden support for Trump that is not reflected in polling and that was totally true... by a lot.   I am to the point now here I treat any polling regarding Trump with a huge grain of salt and always assume it is underestimating.

I don't mean to denigrate polling in any way - I spent the beginning of my career at a prestigious survey institute.  I buy into it.   But something clearly isn't right with respect to polling on Trump and it's obvious.

Do you think that number is too high, or too low?

 

Additionally, it might be skewed based on a different "GOP" pool now.   In 2015, I would have answered a poll that I was a republican.  I wouldn't answer that way today and thus, wouldn't have been counted, even though I'm far from a democrat.  My mom, who would vote for Trump again, is even telling us she's an independent now.

[pfife]

40 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Do you think that number is too high, or too low?

Additionally, it might be skewed based on a different "GOP" pool now.   In 2015, I would have answered a poll that I was a republican.  I wouldn't answer that way today and thus, wouldn't have been counted, even though I'm far from a democrat.  My mom, who would vote for Trump again, is even telling us she's an independent now.

I think the number is too low.   I might even say... by a lot?

I think your scenarios above would lend themselves to a higher percentage because I think you're talking about decreasing the denominator in the percentage calculation.  The denominator being "Republicans". 

[pfife]

I think Trump is the GOP's best chance to win.... and also best chance to lose.... simultaneously.

I think he'd get the most votes of any potential GOP candidate.  I also think he will get the most votes for the Democrats of any potential GOP candidate.

Edited October 8, 2021 by pfife

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, pfife said:

I also think he will get the most votes for the Democrats of any potential GOP candidate.

Here's hoping you are 10,000% correct.

[pfife]

yeah I agree g2, I think we're in real trouble if he wins.

[Motor City Sonics]

Bill Maher's scary-as-f*ck New Rules and as alarmist as this is, I think it is very VERY possible.  

 

[Motor City Sonics]

The Dead Zone just came on.    It's the vision of Donald Trump that Stephen King once had with Martin Sheen as Greg Stillson (with Sonny as his Cory Lewandowski).    Stephen King prophecies coming true.  That's comforting.   I like Stephen King, I think he's a decent guy, but he's f'ed up as hell.  

 

 

Edited October 9, 2021 by Motor City Sonics

[chasfh]

It occurs to me that these people predicting Trump’s imminent return to the White House are exactly the same kind of people who predicts the end of the world: specify a date, rile up the faithful, and when the date passes with nothing happening, specify another date and rile up the faithful.

 

[mtutiger]

On 10/8/2021 at 7:52 AM, pfife said:

About the 44% support for him running in the GOP, I totally and thoroughly do not believe that number.   I get that polling is probably the best we can do to measure this sort of thing, but before 2020 I was a proponent of the notion that there is hidden support for Trump that is not reflected in polling and that was totally true... by a lot.   I am to the point now here I treat any polling regarding Trump with a huge grain of salt and always assume it is underestimating.

I don't mean to denigrate polling in any way - I spent the beginning of my career at a prestigious survey institute.  I buy into it.   But something clearly isn't right with respect to polling on Trump and it's obvious.

I believe the polling... Trump's hardcore is only about 30% or so of the GOP. His act has wore thin in a lot of places.

The issue is that, even if the polling is accurate and he garners 45-50% support in a hypothetical primary, he still wins, and the remaining 55% or so will fall in line and vote for him anyway

[mtutiger]

21 hours ago, ewsieg said:

Do you think that number is too high, or too low?

 

Additionally, it might be skewed based on a different "GOP" pool now.   In 2015, I would have answered a poll that I was a republican.  I wouldn't answer that way today and thus, wouldn't have been counted, even though I'm far from a democrat.  My mom, who would vote for Trump again, is even telling us she's an independent now.

As I alluded above, primary support =/= general election support.

I absolutely believe that there's a sizeable contingent in the GOP that would love to see Trump pass the torch of trumpism to someone else. But that those same people will still, push comes to shove, support him in a general election against Biden or any other D

[gehringer_2]

37 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I believe the polling... Trump's hardcore is only about 30% or so of the GOP. His act has wore thin in a lot of places.

The issue is that, even if the polling is accurate and he garners 45-50% support in a hypothetical primary, he still wins, and the remaining 55% or so will fall in line and vote for him anyway

 

35 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

As I alluded above, primary support =/= general election support.

I absolutely believe that there's a sizeable contingent in the GOP that would love to see Trump pass the torch of trumpism to someone else. But that those same people will still, push comes to shove, support him in a general election against Biden or any other D

One thing that is certain is that Trump will never pass the torch - if ever there was a case of having to pry something from cold dead hands....🙄

But I agree, the nightmare scenario is the repeat of Trump winning GOP primaries on the strength weak pluralities against a fractured, underfunded 'moderate' opposition, and then having the mass of low information habituated Republican voters put him in office against a more potentially polarizing candidate than Biden - i.e. Harris.

[CMRivdogs]

Current polling here indicates the TP candidate within 2-4 points of his opponent. The guy is trying to straddle the fence pushing his Trump endorsement with the faithful. He was probably the least Trumpiest in the rigged nomination process, but is proving to be a Trumpist in GOP clothing.

It doesn’t help that the Dem candidate is about as close to an incumbent as you can come in Va’s gubernatorial setup. Early voting is down from last year which is a bit concerning as well.

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

 

One thing that is certain is that Trump will never pass the torch - if ever there was a case of having to pry something from cold dead hands....

The truth is, a lot of folks will not try if he declares.

Whether the polling is accurate or not, the end result of a Trump run, given how heavy the GOP Primary process is with "winner-take-all" contests, is a resounding victory for the former guy.

The political media (ie. Folks like Jonathan Martin) are trying to sell papers and draw eyeballs so they are kinda hanging on this poll result... but even if he's at 47% or whatever among GOP voters, it doesn't challenge the reality that he wipes the field in an open primary.

He'd have to get down to around 20-25% before any drama starts unfolding.

Edited October 9, 2021 by mtutiger

[Archie]

I really hope that the Republican leadership comes to their senses and convinces Trump to back someone instead of running himself.  I don't think the Republicans can count on running against Biden or Harris.  Biden may or may not finish his term but its clear he is suffering at least mild to moderate dementia now.  Harris is a terrible candidate who I doubt will get the nomination if Biden doesn't run. Republicans need to have a candidate that will unify the party and energize the 2024 ticket and I don't think Trump is the guy, especially the unify part.

[oblong]

The problem with Trump running is who will be on the D side that can beat him?  Yes Biden did already but he's at that point in his life where he will go downhill fast, at least in terms of appearance and cadence and presentation does matter. 

So we're back to a lineup of Harris, Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Beto..... would Gavin Newsom run?

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, oblong said:

The problem with Trump running is who will be on the D side that can beat him?  ...

That doesn't matter.

The overwhelming hatred of him will spur 60% of the country, and that includes a massive number of Republicans/ Independents who will NOT stomach Jan 6th... to vote against him. No matter who the Dem nominee is.

To Archie's point: it has to be someone other than Trump. And not Junior, either... nor Ivanka.

The tricky part will be that whoever wins the Republican nomination will have to: (A) Not piss off Trump, (B) get his endorsement/ support because there's no other way to win. He's kingmaker. (C) Distance him/herself from Jan 6th in order to get back moderate Republicans (pissing off Trump), (D) Get back suburban housewives and moderate/ establishment Republicans/ Independents while NOT pissing off the white nationalist base.

Who can pull that off?

Nikki Haley?

I don't see anyone else who can walk that exact tightrope.

Edited October 10, 2021 by 1984Echoes