gehringer_2 Posted March 4, 2024 Posted March 4, 2024 (edited) 52 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: The difference is people are not turning on their TV to find out what the President is saying about Covid and hearing him suggest that it might be a good idea to inject ourselves with disinfectant. It's pretty stunning to hear a President say that especially during a crisis. I don't think most people follow the moronic hateful things he says on a daily basis now. but it's not like they are going to forget all that, not to mention that unless the Dems run a totally incompetent campaign they are going to remind people. What I come down to is that Trump is a much worse candidate right now than he was in Nov of 2020 because of 1/6/2021 and Dobbs. Plus Biden has a much improved economy. Any normal political analysis would say that a losing candidate that has hurt himself since he last run and is facing an incumbent with a good economy would simply have no chance. Sure you can throw out most the rules with Trump when it comes to the MAGA, but party membership is only 20-25% the electorate. The earth hasn't flipped on its axis either, there are still political realities that don't change. Edited March 4, 2024 by gehringer_2 Quote
Tiger337 Posted March 4, 2024 Posted March 4, 2024 4 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: Plus Biden has a much improved economy. He does, but that is not the impression that most people have. All I hear about is inflation especially high gas prices. None of that has much to do with him (including the good economy), but perception is more important than reality in elections. Quote
mtutiger Posted March 4, 2024 Posted March 4, 2024 25 minutes ago, oblong said: I share that concern but I am hopeful the Dobbs effect can offset it. I also am of the belief that the BLM and defund the police protests did some damage to Biden. Yeah, people memory hole it, but BLM / defund was a huge gift to Trump during that campaign and they used it well. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted March 4, 2024 Posted March 4, 2024 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: He does, but that is not the impression that most people have. All I hear about is inflation especially high gas prices. None of that has much to do with him (including the good economy), but perception is more important than reality in elections. The public perception always lags, but the survey data (like UM) has now started to move. Barring some reversal (always possible) the GOP is going to have a hard time running on any economy args by the time the GE campaign heats up. Edited March 4, 2024 by gehringer_2 Quote
mtutiger Posted March 4, 2024 Posted March 4, 2024 (edited) 16 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: but it's not like they are going to forget all that, not to mention that unless the Dems run a totally incompetent campaign they are going to remind people. What I come down to is that Trump is a much worse candidate right now than he was in Nov of 2020 because of 1/6/2021 and Dobbs. Plus Biden has a much improved economy. Any normal political analysis would say that a losing candidate that has hurt himself since he last run and is facing an incumbent with a good economy would simply have no chance. Sure you can throw out most the rules with Trump when it comes to the MAGA, but party membership is only 20-25% the electorate. The earth hasn't flipped on its axis either, there are still political realities that don't change. I think Lee's point is fair about Biden not getting much credit for the relatively good economic metrics, but on a fundamental basis, you'd rather have this economy to run on anyway than the one that we had in 2022. I suspect that will matter as well prior to November.... it takes time for improved economic sentiment to start manifesting. Some of the latest polls suggest he's getting marginal boost in this metric (even if it isn't being reflected much at the top) But regardless, I'm with you that the fundamentals favor Biden more than the polls are suggesting at this moment. The fundraising and anemic grassroot participation on Trump's side is pretty eye-opening (granted even some of his supporters probably recognize that giving him $$$ is like sending it down a rathole lol) Edited March 4, 2024 by mtutiger Quote
1984Echoes Posted March 4, 2024 Posted March 4, 2024 1 hour ago, Tiger337 said: The difference is people are not turning on their TV to find out ... But my point is... All they have to hear is... TRUMP! And a visceral panic will spread across most Americans' minds... Just by hearing his NAME. They will fill out a ballot as fast as they can with whomever is the Dem nominee, it won't even matter who... Even those paying zero attention to this right now. Hear "Trump" and the same visceral reaction I had 9 years ago "AWW **** NO!!!" Such is the visceral GAG REFLEX that just hearing his name should now engender. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted March 4, 2024 Posted March 4, 2024 16 minutes ago, mtutiger said: I think Lee's point is fair about Biden not getting much credit for the relatively good economic metrics, but on a fundamental basis, you'd rather have this economy to run on anyway than the one that we had in 2022. I suspect that will matter as well prior to November.... it takes time for improved economic sentiment to start manifesting. Some of the latest polls suggest he's getting marginal boost in this metric (even if it isn't being reflected much at the top) But regardless, I'm with you that the fundamentals favor Biden more than the polls are suggesting at this moment. The fundraising and anemic grassroot participation on Trump's side is pretty eye-opening (granted even some of his supporters probably recognize that giving him $$$ is like sending it down a rathole lol) Oil prices are always a wild card no doubt. Another one I wonder about is if the media coverage of Trump the candidate is going to be any different from Trump the President running for re-election. Quote
Tiger337 Posted March 4, 2024 Posted March 4, 2024 33 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: But my point is... All they have to hear is... TRUMP! And a visceral panic will spread across most Americans' minds... Just by hearing his NAME. They will fill out a ballot as fast as they can with whomever is the Dem nominee, it won't even matter who... Even those paying zero attention to this right now. Hear "Trump" and the same visceral reaction I had 9 years ago "AWW **** NO!!!" Such is the visceral GAG REFLEX that just hearing his name should now engender. I wish that were true. Quote
Tiger337 Posted March 4, 2024 Posted March 4, 2024 (edited) 25 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: Oil prices are always a wild card no doubt. Another one I wonder about is if the media coverage of Trump the candidate is going to be any different from Trump the President running for re-election. The media will always be good to him because they need him. Edited March 4, 2024 by Tiger337 Quote
1984Echoes Posted March 4, 2024 Posted March 4, 2024 1 hour ago, Tiger337 said: I wish that were true. October will be an indication... Quote
romad1 Posted March 4, 2024 Posted March 4, 2024 1 hour ago, CMRivdogs said: Another chink in the wall... every round that hits the Bismarck eventually helps sink it Quote
chasfh Posted March 4, 2024 Author Posted March 4, 2024 1 hour ago, romad1 said: every round that hits the Bismarck eventually helps sink it People in October will remember that every time they heard Trump's name lately, he was being hauled into court or one of his people went down in court. I don't know what Russia is planning to do to flip that narrative, but unless they are omnipotent like God Almighty Himself, they've got a tall order in front of them. Quote
chasfh Posted March 4, 2024 Author Posted March 4, 2024 ha ha ha it's funny because he's not trump Quote
The Ronz Posted March 4, 2024 Posted March 4, 2024 1 hour ago, romad1 said: every round that hits the Bismarck eventually helps sink it Where's a swarm of Swordfish when you need one? Quote
oblong Posted March 4, 2024 Posted March 4, 2024 At the beginning of the clip Jost throws out a jab saying "Biden was horrified it was being swarmed by criminals and rapists", Quote
RatkoVarda Posted March 8, 2024 Posted March 8, 2024 Trump posts 91.6M bond. Maybe Elmo or Orban gave him the money at MAL over the weekend? The great news is that as soon as appeals are denied, Carroll gets the cash without a fight. That's when Dump will really melt down. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted March 8, 2024 Posted March 8, 2024 1 hour ago, mtutiger said: My goodness Loonspudery of a high order Quote
RatkoVarda Posted March 8, 2024 Posted March 8, 2024 Dems could not have asked for a better outcome than Lara. Big $$$ people won't return their calls now, and this just seals the deal, as they sit this one out. Down ballot people will get pennies at most. Quote
CMRivdogs Posted March 8, 2024 Posted March 8, 2024 2 hours ago, mtutiger said: My goodness She needs to work on her Fundy Wife voice Quote
CMRivdogs Posted March 9, 2024 Posted March 9, 2024 Always sucks up to the guys who disdains democracy Is it me or just a coincidence Trump comes up with bond money when an anti-democracy leader visits. Quote
chasfh Posted March 9, 2024 Author Posted March 9, 2024 21 hours ago, mtutiger said: My goodness Is that a real thing among Christians, or did they make this up? Because if it’s the latter, it’ll become a thing as though Jesus himself said it. Quote
pfife Posted March 9, 2024 Posted March 9, 2024 So she's saying she's unqualified? Or is she talking about her FIL? Or both? Quote
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