Mize

[Useful Idiot]

23 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

 

Adley Rutschman and Tork both look to be on track, Mize made the majors, Royce Lewis is now up with the Twins, Danby Swanson is a plus player, Mickey Moniak is in the majors but not looking line much right now, so assuming Tork straightens out that's 6 of 7 recent 1/1s without a confirmed bust.

Out of the last 50 inductees to the MLB hall of fame, how many were formerly first round draft picks?  ⚓

[SoCalTiger]

4 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Freehan is such an odd case to me. He was the hands down dominant catcher in his league for nearly his whole career. Forget all the stats, that alone should get you more consideration that Freehan ever got.

Freehan was an 11 time All star. Dominating your position for a decade should equal hall Status.

[SoCalTiger]

4 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

They can all make a good case.  I would rank them

1. Whitaker

2. Freehan

3, Lolich.  

I probably wouldn't put Lolich in because there are a number of pitchers a little ahead of him that haven't gotten in but I think he's done enough for strong consideration.  Whitaker's candicacy has been beaten to death.  His lifetime numbers make him a shoe in.  He is an odd case in that he has had more good years than almost any player ever, but never had a career year.  He was TOO consistent and too quiet.  Freehan is definitely on the short list of best catchers not yet in the HoF and I think there is a catcher shortage. 

I would agree with this ranking and analysis.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Useful Idiot said:

Out of the last 50 inductees to the MLB hall of fame, how many were formerly first round draft picks?  ⚓

Jeter, ARod would be if they would let him in, Simmons, Baines, Halladay....a lot I'm guessing without going through the list further!

Edited May 17, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Useful Idiot]

Gee, I forgot all about Baines,...my bad.  😈

[Useful Idiot]

Although this list is dated, since it ends in 2009. It is still informative. In that (as of that time) only 8 of 23 draft era inductees were first round draft  picks (only 5 of them from the traditional june draft)

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/articles/View.aspx?article=395#:~:text=--Only five of the,first round of the draft.

Edited May 18, 2022 by Useful Idiot

[CMRivdogs]

12 minutes ago, Useful Idiot said:

Although this list is dated, since it ends in 2009. It is still informative. In that (as of that time) only 8 of 23 draft era inductees were first round draft  picks (only 5 of them from the traditional june draft)

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/articles/View.aspx?article=395#:~:text=--Only five of the,first round of the draft.

This is a somewhat updated list from HOF

https://baseballhall.org/news/class-of-2019-features-three-first-round-draft-picks

[Useful Idiot]

So out of that list, we are talking 15 out of 43 being first rounders...with only 3 being #1 overall?...and Harold Baines is one of those.

Edited May 18, 2022 by Useful Idiot

[buddha]

scouting is much better now than it used to be.

[Useful Idiot]

They probably try harder, too🙂

[gehringer_2]

30 minutes ago, Useful Idiot said:

So out of that list, we are talking 15 out of 43 being first rounders...with only 3 being #1 overall?...and Harold Baines is one of those.

If the argument is the greatest return on draft picks, I'd have to count ARod with the 1/1s so that makes 4. And for that matter Barry was also a 1st rounder.

Curiously the last two bad 1/1 misses were back to back in '13 and '14 with Aiken and Appel. Since then everyone looks like they have a shot at a career,  even if well short of the HOF! Even if Mize ends up under the knife odds would be good on his comeback.

Edited May 18, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Useful Idiot]

37 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

If the argument is the greatest return on draft picks,

Actually, my interest lay mostly with "fleshing out"  comments I faintly remember to the effect of #1 overall picks reaching the heights everyone set for them.

And including your  generosity, it appears that 19 of the 47 (including your two roiders) were first rounders...and only 6 were #1 overall....in the history of the draft as we commonly regard it.

Hey, I hope that Mize becomes #7

But I am forced to ponder how I might have fared in my vocation if I made a habit out of recommending we bet the farm on a 6 out of 49 chance of success?

Edited May 18, 2022 by Useful Idiot

[Useful Idiot]

How important is the #1 pick? In the history of the draft,  only 6 #1 picks Made it to the HOF

(including your two "honorable mention" candidates)

That's what I'm thinking.

Edited May 18, 2022 by Useful Idiot

[gehringer_2]

13 minutes ago, Useful Idiot said:

How important is the #1 pick? In the history of the draft,  only 6 #1 picks Made it to the HOF

(including your two "honorable mention" candidates)

That's what I'm thinking.

The best presentation of data around this was posted by someone on the old site who is probably here but I have no recollection of who. It's a chart of the probability of a player having some number of career WAR (It might have been 10) plotted against draft position. IIRC it was fairly flat across about 1st 5 picks than then pretty much tapered gradually down to near zero in a few rounds. Long story short, you have a reasonable shot at picking a successful player near the top of the draft, but after a couple of rounds the rest of the players make it by pretty close to random chance. 

[Useful Idiot]

I'll concede there are a host of variables in the draft order valuation process, as well as criteria both arbitrary and capricious in the hall voting....just saying.

[Useful Idiot]

So, I see that Manning was pulled from today's game after 2 innings..  Not specific to arm problems, just couldn't hit his mark

[gehringer_2]

30 minutes ago, Useful Idiot said:

So, I see that Manning was pulled from today's game after 2 innings..  Not specific to arm problems, just couldn't hit his mark

they said dizzy.

[Useful Idiot]

49 pitches in 2+ innings...walked 3 plus a HBP.......I'd say that qualifies for not hitting one's mark

[gkelly]

On 5/16/2022 at 4:37 PM, gehringer_2 said:

Tork both look to be on track,

He looks completely overmatched usually.  I know he is only 22, but he plays at a position where he has to produce and produce right away.  Not like the Tigers have any other options at the position though.  Power hitting or good hitting first basemen are everywhere.  You really have to hit well and hit with power to stand out.  That's probably one of the reason 1st baseman are rarely ever drafted in the top 10.

Edited May 21, 2022 by gkelly