Javy Baez

[Dtrain72]

I never really saw much of Javy before he became a Tiger, but my gawd man, just watching him pull his head, not even looking at the ball, and wildly swinging out of his shoes...I'm shocked he's made it this far in his career.  Has he always been so good at swinging at painfully bad, unhittable pitches, whilst staring down the 3rd base line?  La mag? More like la maga...

Edited May 21, 2022 by Dtrain72

[buddha]

37 minutes ago, Dtrain72 said:

I never really saw much of Javy before he became a Tiger, but my gawd man, just watching him pull his head, not even looking at the ball, and wildly swinging out of his shoes...I'm shocked he's made it this far in his career.  Has he always been so good at swinging at painfully bad, unhittable pitches, whilst staring down the 3rd base line?  La mag? More like la maga...

this is who javy has always been.  he's just in a prolonged slump right now.  he'll have two weeks where he slugs .600 and all the pro-javy people will be back to say "i told you so."

[Tiger337]

15 minutes ago, buddha said:

this is who javy has always been.  he's just in a prolonged slump right now.  he'll have two weeks where he slugs .600 and all the pro-javy people will be back to say "i told you so."

Except now they'll be lots of snarky comments about Neifi Perez!

In all seriousness, I am not pro-Javy.  I just think he's a lot better than Goodrum and the Castros.  

Edited May 21, 2022 by Tiger337

[buddha]

33 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Except now they'll be lots of snarky comments about Neifi Perez!

In all seriousness, I am not pro-Javy.  I just think he's a lot better than Goodrum and the Castros.  

im not really pro or anti javy.  they needed an upgrade at shortstop and he was an upgrade at shortstop.  he's a good defensive player, sometimes great.  he was the cheapest alternative on the market.  so be it.

but the idea that he was somehow going to replicate his last month with the mets for a whole season was fool's gold.  he may yet have a month like that, but it will only be a month, not a season.  javy is almost 30 now, he is what he is, and will almost certainly decline in the next few years.

[Useful Idiot]

39 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Except now they'll be lots of snarky comments about Neifi Perez!

In all seriousness, I am not pro-Javy. 

Ohhhhh, so THAT is what your little snit is all about?  You think that my comparisons are diss'n Neifi.....

I hadn't thought about that angle...my bad.

Edited May 21, 2022 by Useful Idiot

[sabretooth]

11 minutes ago, buddha said:

im not really pro or anti javy.  they needed an upgrade at shortstop and he was an upgrade at shortstop.  he's a good defensive player, sometimes great.  he was the cheapest alternative on the market.  so be it.

but the idea that he was somehow going to replicate his last month with the mets for a whole season was fool's gold.  he may yet have a month like that, but it will only be a month, not a season.  javy is almost 30 now, he is what he is, and will almost certainly decline in the next few years.

Bingo

[mtutiger]

48 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Except now they'll be lots of snarky comments about Neifi Perez!

In all seriousness, I am not pro-Javy.  I just think he's a lot better than Goodrum and the Castros.  

He's just pretty much as advertised, I don't get the shock people have. 

Sooner or later, he'll get his mechanics fixed and go on a tear... his percentages of ground balls are way higher than normal, line drives are lower, that will regress/progress over time.

Edited May 21, 2022 by mtutiger

[sabretooth]

It's absolutely amazing to me that a whole bunch of people seem to think that slumps are not possible anymore.

[mtutiger]

12 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

It's absolutely amazing to me that a whole bunch of people seem to think that slumps are not possible anymore.

A lot of fans (not saying anyone here, just generally) approach baseball from a football mindset, like there's only 16 games. And it doesn't really work... even the best ballplayers during a 162 game season are fully capable of a stretch where they strikeout more than normal or struggle to hit. (We should all know by know, given how the 2022 Tigers have played more generally!)

That said, the Tigers are paying him a lot of money to be the guy, and in a period where the rest of the guys have struggled, he hasn't been the guy, at least on offense. Undue as it may be, it's not surprising that folks are impatient.

Edited May 21, 2022 by mtutiger

[buddha]

27 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

A lot of fans (not saying anyone here, just generally) approach baseball from a football mindset, like there's only 16 games. And it doesn't really work... even the best ballplayers during a 162 game season are fully capable of a stretch where they strikeout more than normal or struggle to hit. (We should all know by know, given how the 2022 Tigers have played more generally!)

That said, the Tigers are paying him a lot of money to be the guy, and in a period where the rest of the guys have struggled, he hasn't been the guy, at least on offense. Undue as it may be, it's not surprising that folks are impatient.

if there is a problem, its the tigers paying him a lot of money to be "the guy."  he's only really been the guy one year of his career.  other than that year, he's been too streaky to be the guy.

but like you said, most people here figured he would be what he has always been and would - at the very least - been a big upgrade on nico on defense.  which he has been.

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, buddha said:

if there is a problem, its the tigers paying him a lot of money to be "the guy."  he's only really been the guy one year of his career.  other than that year, he's been too streaky to be the guy.

but like you said, most people here figured he would be what he has always been and would - at the very least - been a big upgrade on nico on defense.  which he has been.

To an extent, I think he's "the guy" by default at the moment... ideally in a year or two, Tork and Greene fill that role.

I do think that Javy and his contract are a pretty nice heat shield for Robbie Grossman at the moment... because if one guy in the lineup deserves an entire thread dedicated to underperformance, it would be him.

[chasfh]

21 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

It's always advantage pitcher to face guys that haven't seen you before, and vice versa. I believe that is one of the reasons that it's harder to be a good OBP hitter today than in the pre-expansion days when you seldom faced a pitcher you didn't have 50AB against.

This was the key to Mariano Riviera’s success, I believe: batters faced him so rarely that they could not get used to his funky pitches. Even David Ortiz usually didn’t see him more than three times in a season, and frequently less. 

[sabretooth]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

A lot of fans (not saying anyone here, just generally) approach baseball from a football mindset, like there's only 16 games. And it doesn't really work... even the best ballplayers during a 162 game season are fully capable of a stretch where they strikeout more than normal or struggle to hit. (We should all know by know, given how the 2022 Tigers have played more generally!)

That said, the Tigers are paying him a lot of money to be the guy, and in a period where the rest of the guys have struggled, he hasn't been the guy, at least on offense. Undue as it may be, it's not surprising that folks are impatient.

I get the impatience with Baez and the team..... It's the whole "they didnt tell us it was a 100 loss team!" thing that I object to.

The only way this is going to be a 100 loss team, or even at a 90 loss rate for the balance of the season, is due to bad luck/injuries.

That having been said, the hope for a winning season, much less the playoffs, is fading quickly.

[mtutiger]

8 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

I get the impatience with Baez and the team..... It's the whole "they didnt tell us it was a 100 loss team!" thing that I object to.

The only way this is going to be a 100 loss team, or even at a 90 loss rate for the balance of the season, is due to bad luck/injuries.

That having been said, the hope for a winning season, much less the playoffs, is fading quickly.

100%. Even with the rough start, I dont think this team is losing 100 games. 

[bobrob2004]

31 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

100%. Even with the rough start, I dont think this team is losing 100 games. 

The Tigers would have to go 50-73 the rest of the way to avoid losing 100 games.  That's a .407 winning%.  Currently they are playing .333, on pace for a 54-108 record.

[gehringer_2]

35 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

100%. Even with the rough start, I dont think this team is losing 100 games. 

If Manning gets back and pitches well and Faedo pitches well and assuming Pineda and Rodriguez are only out <6 weeks each. But they sure can lose 100 if Skubal ends up the only reliable starter. Steve Carlton won 27 games by himself in 1972 while the Phillies were losing 97 as a team.

Edited May 21, 2022 by gehringer_2

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

If Manning gets back and pitches well and Faedo pitches well and assuming Pineda and Rodriguez are only out <6 weeks each. But they sure can lose 100 if Skubal ends up the only reliable starter. Steve Carlton won 27 games by himself in 1972 while the Phillies were losing 97 as a team.

That was my thought too.  if they don't get healthy, they have a good chance to lose 100 games.  

[Useful Idiot]

50 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

The Tigers would have to go 50-73 the rest of the way to avoid losing 100 games.  That's a .407 winning%.  Currently they are playing .333, on pace for a 54-108 record.

That's pretty much in order with my motivations. The way I see it, when a team's winning percentage is  .667 or above....there is nothing worth complaining about. When a team is .333 or below...then there is nothing that is defensible.  I muzzled my misgivings about Baez until we slinked below 333  just prior to the Baltimore  series. Are our failures entirely his doing?  No, but I'll get around to the others eventually  

[mtutiger]

59 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

If Manning gets back and pitches well and Faedo pitches well and assuming Pineda and Rodriguez are only out <6 weeks each. But they sure can lose 100 if Skubal ends up the only reliable starter. Steve Carlton won 27 games by himself in 1972 while the Phillies were losing 97 as a team.

There are a lot of questions about the pitchers, but I keep going back to the hitters... largely guys with track records who aren't hitting their track records. That should change.

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, bobrob2004 said:

The Tigers would have to go 50-73 the rest of the way to avoid losing 100 games.  That's a .407 winning%.  Currently they are playing .333, on pace for a 54-108 record.

Sure, but past isn't prologue nor is it predictive of future results in this sport either.

Aside from the 2021 Tigers, the 2021 San Diego Padres are a great example... they ended the year playing .333 baseball (18-36 past 1 August), yet still finished 79-83. Different team, maybe more talent, maybe excused some by Tatis sustaining injuries, but still, teams can go through sustained periods where they play much worse than their final record.

I'm not saying that I expect them to meet the number I gave them in Spring Training or even that they can get to 79 wins, I just don't know that looking at the record to date means all that much when judging where they might land when the season ends.

Edited May 21, 2022 by mtutiger

[sabretooth]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

That was my thought too.  if they don't get healthy, they have a good chance to lose 100 games.  

Right. I wasn't trying to be predictive about 100 losses being excessive.  It's just that this team, as constructed, was a 500 team not a 350 or even a 400 team.

But yeah, if the injuries keep going this way, 100 losses is looking more and more likely.

[sabretooth]

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

If Manning gets back and pitches well and Faedo pitches well and assuming Pineda and Rodriguez are only out <6 weeks each. But they sure can lose 100 if Skubal ends up the only reliable starter. Steve Carlton won 27 games by himself in 1972 while the Phillies were losing 97 as a team.

yeah

[SoCalTiger]

I suppose I am pro Javy Baez but very aware of his tendency to look bad at the plate and low walk rate. I think he was the best value signing among all the shortstops. Now I value defense very high, more than many, and he is consistently excellent. I think the intricacies of baseball are valuable though often overlooked like base running and tagging a runner. Again he is excellent. But his best value lies in the energy and knack of raising his performance in game pressure moments. We saw that opening day and again a few days later with the 8th inning ,should have been game winning, 3 run HR that Soto threw away. I think because of our losing that "edge" is off his game and the concentration wavers in trying to carry the team. He's not that but if and when we become competitive I believe he will be right in the center of our success.

[bobrob2004]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

Sure, but past isn't prologue nor is it predictive of future results in this sport either.

Aside from the 2021 Tigers, the 2021 San Diego Padres are a great example... they ended the year playing .333 baseball (18-36 past 1 August), yet still finished 79-83. Different team, maybe more talent, maybe excused some by Tatis sustaining injuries, but still, teams can go through sustained periods where they play much worse than their final record.

I'm not saying that I expect them to meet the number I gave them in Spring Training or even that they can get to 79 wins, I just don't know that looking at the record to date means all that much when judging where they might land when the season ends.

That's all true, but it does show that 100 losses is all within the realm of possibilities this year.  

[mtutiger]

6 hours ago, bobrob2004 said:

That's all true, but it does show that 100 losses is all within the realm of possibilities this year.  

Sure, it's a possibility.

But I dont think it will ultimately happen