Javy Baez

[BBFCFM]

On 5/20/2022 at 5:08 PM, Tenacious D said:

You’re missing the silver lining—we’ll save on having to pay him any performance bonuses.

 Never understood this argument.  Not my money, who cares?

[BBFCFM]

17 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

I suppose I am pro Javy Baez but very aware of his tendency to look bad at the plate and low walk rate. I think he was the best value signing among all the shortstops. Now I value defense very high, more than many, and he is consistently excellent. I think the intricacies of baseball are valuable though often overlooked like base running and tagging a runner. Again he is excellent. But his best value lies in the energy and knack of raising his performance in game pressure moments. We saw that opening day and again a few days later with the 8th inning ,should have been game winning, 3 run HR that Soto threw away. I think because of our losing that "edge" is off his game and the concentration wavers in trying to carry the team. He's not that but if and when we become competitive I believe he will be right in the center of our success.

I am on board with this logic.  

[Tiger337]

13 minutes ago, BBFCFM said:

 Never understood this argument.  Not my money, who cares?

I definitely agree with that, but I think Tenacious was just kidding.

[casimir]

41 minutes ago, BBFCFM said:

 Never understood this argument.  Not my money, who cares?

Never understood the lack of acknowledgement of opportunity cost and the realization that teams don't have unlimited budgets.

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, casimir said:

Never understood the lack of acknowledgement of opportunity cost and the realization that teams don't have unlimited budgets.

Performance bonuses are presumably already in the budget.

Edited May 22, 2022 by chasfh

[casimir]

Just now, chasfh said:

Performance bonuses are presumably already in the budget.

Ah, the bonuses, I'm thinking the opt in years.  I is a idiot.

[chasfh]

Javy hitting .205/.244/.308 across 30 games does not mean he is broken, any more than when he inevitably hits .300/.350/.550 over a future 30-game stretch that will mean he is fixed. Both Javys are the fully-functioning Javy. It is technically possible that at age 29, Javy is done done, but that is super unlikely.

We don’t know how long this terrible stretch will last—maybe another 10 games, maybe another 30 … we’ll see—but all we can do is wait it out and enjoy his otherworldly defense and base running as consolation prizes in the meantime.

[Tiger337]

11 minutes ago, casimir said:

Never understood the lack of acknowledgement of opportunity cost and the realization that teams don't have unlimited budgets.

But that's not the fan's problem.  As a fan, I hope the Tigers will increase their budget, so when I see them trying to cut costs I view it as a negative.  Regardless, performance bonuses are in the budget.  

Edited May 22, 2022 by Tiger337

[BBFCFM]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

But that's not the fan's problem.  As a fan, I hope the Tigers will increase their budget, so when I see them trying to cut costs I view it as a negative.  

Yep.  We should be rooting for him to hit all those goals.  

[casimir]

3 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

But that's not the fan's problem.  As a fan, I hope the Tigers will increase their budget, so when I see them trying to cut costs I view it as a negative.  Regardless, performance bonuses are in the budget.  

It’s not the fans’ problem directly.  Primarily I hope the Tigers add talent.  It’s easy to think that comes with salary, and generally that’s the case in free agency.

I go back to the second deal they signed with Victor Martinez.  That salary would have been better spent elsewhere.  Seattle was rumored to be interested at the time.  The Tigers could have used that salary space for someone more productive and gotten a pick as well.

[casimir]

3 hours ago, BBFCFM said:

Yep.  We should be rooting for him to hit all those goals.  

Sure, if they’re hitting the bonus thresholds, then they’re doing what they were signed to do.

[Tenacious D]

4 hours ago, BBFCFM said:

 Never understood this argument.  Not my money, who cares?

It was a joke, son.

[Tenacious D]

4 hours ago, chasfh said:

Javy hitting .205/.244/.308 across 30 games does not mean he is broken, any more than when he inevitably hits .300/.350/.550 over a future 30-game stretch that will mean he is fixed. Both Javys are the fully-functioning Javy. It is technically possible that at age 29, Javy is done done, but that is super unlikely.

We don’t know how long this terrible stretch will last—maybe another 10 games, maybe another 30 … we’ll see—but all we can do is wait it out and enjoy his otherworldly defense and base running as consolation prizes in the meantime.

I agree—he’ll be fine.

[Tiger337]

37 minutes ago, casimir said:

It’s not the fans’ problem directly.  Primarily I hope the Tigers add talent.  It’s easy to think that comes with salary, and generally that’s the case in free agency.

I go back to the second deal they signed with Victor Martinez.  That salary would have been better spent elsewhere.  Seattle was rumored to be interested at the time.  The Tigers could have used that salary space for someone more productive and gotten a pick as well.

I understand what you are saying, but I think Martinez was signed the second time because Mike Ilitch liked him and he wasn't necessarily going to spend the money elsewhere.  

[BBFCFM]

Let’s go!!!

[Useful Idiot]

On 5/21/2022 at 10:19 AM, Tiger337 said:

Except now they'll be lots of snarky comments about Neifi Perez!

 

(All figures do not include today's game)

Baez is actually showing some improvement in his strikeout rate since becoming a Tiger, compared to what he accomplished as a Cub

With the Cubs he struck out 900 times in 3096 plate appearances, or once every 3.41 plate appearances

As a Tiger he has struck out 31 times in 123 plate appearances, or once every 3.97 plate appearances.

 

In contrast Neifi Perez

With the Cubs  he struck out 74 times in 922 plate appearances, or once every 12.46 plate appearances

As a Tiger he struck out 12 times in 141 plate appearances, or once every 11.75 plate appearances.

 

So, I guess you could say that Javy is over 3 times more likely to strike out as Neifi?

 

Further, I see that as a Tiger  Neifi Perez grounded into a double play 4 times in his 141 plate appearances as a Tiger...or once every 35.25 plate appearances. While Javy Baez also grounded into a double play 4 times in his 123 plate appearances,  or once every 30.75 plate appearances.

I just offer these to you as testimony that the motivated fan can sift out statistics to support whatever story they want to tell.

Edited May 22, 2022 by Useful Idiot

[Tiger337]

33 minutes ago, Useful Idiot said:

I just offer these to you as testimony that the motivated fan can sift out statistics to support whatever story they want to tell.

Over the past 25 years on the internet, I have heard every possible anti baseball stat argument there is.  Don't waste your time.  You guys lost.  

[1984Echoes]

Here... I've decided to contribute to this shitbowl of a thread after all...

In Javy's first 12 games he hit .292 with an .833 OPS.

In Javy's next 17 games he hit .138 with an .346 OPS.

In Javy's last 2 games he has hit .250 with an .875 OPS.

 

Say... isn't that what we bought in Javy Baez? Knowing full well that he would be excellent with the glove and on the basepaths and streaky as hell at the plate?

Hmmm... I think that's an affirmative. We're getting exactly what we thought we'd get.

And it ain't Neifi M Fucking Perez.

[Useful Idiot]

38 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Over the past 25 years on the internet, I have heard every possible anti baseball stat argument there is.  Don't waste your time.  You guys lost.  

I'm not "anti stat"  I'm anti stat abuse. Metrics are great for figuring out what happened yesterday.  But the way many seem to try to use them as tea leaves that can predict the future....well. the term "self abuse" comes to mind.

 

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, Useful Idiot said:

(All figures do not include today's game)

Baez is actually showing some improvement in his strikeout rate since becoming a Tiger, compared to what he accomplished as a Cub

With the Cubs he struck out 900 times in 3096 plate appearances, or once every 3.41 plate appearances

As a Tiger he has struck out 31 times in 123 plate appearances, or once every 3.97 plate appearances.

 

In contrast Neifi Perez

With the Cubs  he struck out 74 times in 922 plate appearances, or once every 12.46 plate appearances

As a Tiger he struck out 12 times in 141 plate appearances, or once every 11.75 plate appearances.

 

So, I guess you could say that Javy is over 3 times more likely to strike out as Neifi?

 

Further, I see that as a Tiger  Neifi Perez grounded into a double play 4 times in his 141 plate appearances as a Tiger...or once every 35.25 plate appearances. While Javy Baez also grounded into a double play 4 times in his 123 plate appearances,  or once every 30.75 plate appearances.

I just offer these to you as testimony that the motivated fan can sift out statistics to support whatever story they want to tell.

Javy Baez, in now 128 plate appearances, has a .575 OPS. Not a great number by any means, but it's around 100 points higher than Neifi Perez during his time as a Tiger.

Javy strikes out more than ideal and has rolled over on a lot of balls this year, but OPS is where the rubber meets the road... and it's not a contest in comparing the two.

[Tiger337]

11 minutes ago, Useful Idiot said:

I'm not "anti stat"  I'm anti stat abuse. Metrics are great for figuring out what happened yesterday.  But the way many seem to try to use them as tea leaves that can predict the future....well. the term "self abuse" comes to mind.

 

There you go again!  I've heard all this before.  

[casimir]

6 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I understand what you are saying, but I think Martinez was signed the second time because Mike Ilitch liked him and he wasn't necessarily going to spend the money elsewhere.  

I agree that he was resigned in part because he was well liked.  It may have been a situation where the Tigers let him shop himself around with the understanding that they would be willing to bid above.

Now as far as Ilitch not spending the money elsewhere, I disagree. That was his drunken sailor era.  Perhaps he wouldn’t have signed anyone else that offseason (I really don’t remember when it occurred and who else was out there), but he wasn’t shy about making it rain.  The Prince Fielder signing is an example of that.

[Useful Idiot]

Just now, Tiger337 said:

There you go again!  I've heard all this before.  

Well I've heard before arguments by starstruck fans trying to extrapolate stats into a convoluted argument that they alone have the "secret sauce"....  yada yada .....often enough to recognize the echo

[Tiger337]

Extrapolation of past stats is not perfect, but it works better than pulling stuff out of your rear. 

Edited May 23, 2022 by Tiger337

[sabretooth]

1 hour ago, Useful Idiot said:

I'm not "anti stat"  I'm anti stat abuse. Metrics are great for figuring out what happened yesterday.  But the way many seem to try to use them as tea leaves that can predict the future....well. the term "self abuse" comes to mind.

Jake?