Javy Baez

[mtutiger]

55 minutes ago, Useful Idiot said:

Well I've heard before arguments by starstruck fans trying to extrapolate stats into a convoluted argument that they alone have the "secret sauce"....  yada yada .....often enough to recognize the echo

I get that saber debates can come across convoluted, sure, but using the fact that Neifi Perez struck out less than Javy has as evidence that he's was a better player than Javy has been lacks a *lot* of context and data. Particularly in terms of power hitting metrics and the impact they have on a players contribution to the team.

Hence why OPS is where the rubber meets the road... I'm going with the guy who is 100 points higher than the other guy. Easy decision 

Edited May 23, 2022 by mtutiger

[buddha]

47 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Jake?

<-----------

[casimir]

We're missing the obvious.  They're pitching to Javy Baez like he's Neifi Perez.  Its just that simple.

[casimir]

9 hours ago, sabretooth said:

Jake?

Nope.  No evidence in the college threads.

[Jim Cowan]

This thread is like watching a guy give a series of speeches while looking at himself in the bathroom mirror.

[bobrob2004]

2 items in 1 pages
#	Name	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
1	Javier Baez	31	127	3	10	12	0	3.9%	26.0%	.124	.259	.207	.244	.331	.256		67	-0.5	-5.0	2.4	0.2
2	Neifi Perez	54	141	1	9	11	1	5.0%	8.5%	.054	.198	.186	.228	.240	.213		19	-1.2	-15.8	3.7	-0.7

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=2006&ind=0&team=6&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=620,12979&startdate=&enddate=#custom

I don't think the comparison is very good.  Baez clearly strikes out more and walks less.  However, when he connects, he's a much better hitter, hitting for much more power.  Perez was just a weak hitter for the Tigers.  Sure, he made more contact, but that did a lot less damage than when Baez makes contact.  They are not a similar type of hitter at all.  

[buddha]

its like the guy who used to argue that jair jurjjens was better than justin verlander cause verlander was just a thrower.

[RandyMarsh]

13 minutes ago, buddha said:

its like the guy who used to argue that jair jurjjens was better than justin verlander cause verlander was just a thrower.

Lol I remember that, in fact I was just a lurker when that was posted but it inspired me to make an account just so I could comment on it. 

[Tiger337]

16 minutes ago, buddha said:

its like the guy who used to argue that jair jurjjens was better than justin verlander cause verlander was just a thrower.

That was Jake.  He also used to update us on all of Jurjjens' starts after he left Detroit.  To be fair, at the time Jurjjens was on the team, Verlander had not yet emerged as a star.  While Jake's posts were alarmist and trollish, the Jurrjens/Verlander comparison was nothing like the Perez/Baez comparison.  

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, bobrob2004 said:

2 items in 1 pages
#	Name	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
1	Javier Baez	31	127	3	10	12	0	3.9%	26.0%	.124	.259	.207	.244	.331	.256		67	-0.5	-5.0	2.4	0.2
2	Neifi Perez	54	141	1	9	11	1	5.0%	8.5%	.054	.198	.186	.228	.240	.213		19	-1.2	-15.8	3.7	-0.7

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=2006&ind=0&team=6&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=620,12979&startdate=&enddate=#custom

I don't think the comparison is very good.  Baez clearly strikes out more and walks less.  However, when he connects, he's a much better hitter, hitting for much more power.  Perez was just a weak hitter for the Tigers.  Sure, he made more contact, but that did a lot less damage than when Baez makes contact.  They are not a similar type of hitter at all.  

Only six qualified batters in 2022 have an ISO lower than that shown by Neifi Perez above.

(Unfortunately, Robbie Grossman is one of the six lol)

Edited May 23, 2022 by mtutiger

[Tiger337]

Austin Meadows

Derek Hill

Willi Castro

Daz Gross, Man

 

[Useful Idiot]

1 hour ago, bobrob2004 said:

I don't think the comparison is very good. 

You've always been a decent guy, so I'm going to give it to you straight.  Both were(are) disappointments at the plate as Tigers....that really is similarity enough for me. The (additional) fact that both were(are) shortstops, as well as former Cubs is just icing on the cake.  I don't care if goober wants to argue that one was an eagle scout while the other skipped school, or any other incidental differences they can dredge up to plea their case.... to me the significant similarities take precedence.

Javy will continue to remind me of Neifi, until he starts to hit...it's  really just as simple as that. I don't care what stat anyone cares to pull out of their.....hat...(lol) to contend otherwise.  Silly me, I just don't believe that I need anyone's approval to make that analogy.

I'll tell you what I've come to believe in just the past 24 hours...I believe I've struck a vein.

If I had, for example, claimed that Miguel Cabrera was Neifi Perez, or that Alan Trammel was Neifi Perez, I believe that most members here would have just discounted my claim as pure nutso, and that would have been the end of it.

QUITE IN CONTRAST,  just based upon the response I have been able to stimulate, I suspect that the allegation seems just plausible enough to require defense against.....as Stewie Griffin might say "Victory is Mine!!"

[Tiger337]

7 minutes ago, Useful Idiot said:

I'll tell you what I've come to believe in just the past 24 hours...I believe I've struck a vein.

If I had, for example, claimed that Miguel Cabrera was Neifi Perez, or that Alan Trammel was Neifi Perez, I believe that most members here would have just discounted my claim as pure nutso, and that would have been the end of it.

QUITE IN CONTRAST,  just based upon the response I have been able to stimulate, I suspect that the allegation seems just plausible enough to require defense against.....as Stewie Griffin might say "Victory is Mine!!"

It's simpler than that.  The response you got is because your claim is pure nutso.  

[Useful Idiot]

17 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Extrapolation of past stats is not perfect, but it works better than pulling stuff out of your rear. 

I thought it was cool last post season,   before the first playoff pitch was thrown, I picked the Braves and Stros for the world series, with the Braves ultimately  winning. Yet the sabermetric braintrust was certain I was completely clueless...because THEY POSSESSED THE SECRET SAUCE...etc 

Analytics is not the alpha and the omega, it is merely a key to understanding. 

[Useful Idiot]

3 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

It's simpler than that.  The response you got is because your claim is pure nutso.  

Still on the defense!!  I love it!  🙂

[mtutiger]

15 minutes ago, Useful Idiot said:

Javy will continue to remind me of Neifi, until he starts to hit...it's  really just as simple as that. I don't care what stat anyone cares to pull out of their.....hat...(lol) to contend otherwise.  Silly me, I just don't believe that I need anyone's approval to make that analogy.

For me, it's not stats, it's the eye test.... I've seen both of them play in a Tiger uniform and one is clearly a better player than the other. The stats merely support the case.

The question of whether Javy is living up to the big contract is fair, of course.... but that's a different matter than saying he's Neifi Perez.

Edited May 23, 2022 by mtutiger

[Useful Idiot]

I suspect for many of you, there is the supposition that being "supportive" makes you a superior fan?

I'm sure Javy will appreciate your faithfulness, might even invite you to his party? Let me know how it all goes.

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, Useful Idiot said:

Still on the defense!!  I love it!  🙂

And you're just here to say stupid stuff so you can get attention.  you admitted as much in your previous post.  

 

[Useful Idiot]

Just now, Tiger337 said:

And you're just here to say stupid stuff so you can get attention.  you admitted as much in your previous post.  

 

I'd say that is a self-serving interpretation on your part.

[mtutiger]

38 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Daz Gross, Man

 

It's honestly confusing to me how people keep wanting to tee off on Javy, Schoop or Candy when Grossman, on the whole, has been underperforming much more than anyone else in the lineup right now. Even setting aside his career last year.

I really like Robbie and want him to turn it around, but he hasn't been playing well and it was sort of aggravating to  hear him try to blame the ballpark at one point for his troubles.... especially when he hits terribly both at home and on the road.

Edited May 23, 2022 by mtutiger

[Useful Idiot]

3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

It's honestly confusing to me how people keep wanting to tee off on Javy, Schoop or Candy when Grossman, on the whole, has been underperforming

I never really got the impression that Grossman was being billed as part of our long term success formula. He's more or less a place holder until a future solution is implemented....so not really in my crosshairs

 

I did mention that I believed that Reyes would have caught that drive by Sano in Minnesota a short while back (that Grossman muffed)  but I'm sure that lacked the proper stats to back it up...so it was not a popular observation?

[Tiger337]

31 minutes ago, Useful Idiot said:

I thought it was cool last post season,   before the first playoff pitch was thrown, I picked the Braves and Stros for the world series, with the Braves ultimately  winning. Yet the sabermetric braintrust was certain I was completely clueless...because THEY POSSESSED THE SECRET SAUCE...etc 

Analytics is not the alpha and the omega, it is merely a key to understanding. 

That shows how little you know..  Sabers know that the post-season is just a crap shoot and that any team can win a short series in baseball. So, they wouldn't call you clueless for that.  There was probably another reason why they called you clueless.   😄

Edited May 23, 2022 by Tiger337

[mtutiger]

9 minutes ago, Useful Idiot said:

I never really got the impression that Grossman was being billed as part of our long term success formula. 

So what? He's a member of the 2022 Detroit Tigers and is absolutely a contributor to the short term success formula of this ballclub and he has been terrible on that front. And very few seem to notice (props to @kdog for staying on message there). And his lack of success at the plate definitely impacts his possibility of contributing to the long term success formula by not looking attractive to potential suiters at the trade deadline.... they'd be lucky to get a bag of stale sunflower seeds for him at this point lol

So yeah, maybe he doesn't have a long term deal, but he somehow elides any scrutiny and it's really strange.

Edited May 23, 2022 by mtutiger

[Useful Idiot]

3 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

That shows you how little you know..  Sabers know that the post-season is just a crap shoot and that any team can win a short series in baseball. So, they wouldn't call you clueless for that.  There was probably another reason why they called you clueless.   😄

I was wrong about the Red Sox being eliminated in the round they were eliminated in, and I got the Giants/Dodgers wrong.  Other than that, I had it pretty solid.

I'll tell you what I really think...I believe the PC aspect had a lot of people in denial, they didn't want to concede any level of respect to two teams they had philosophical objections to. SO THEY SIFTED THROUGH STATS trying to justify their heart felt position.

Which I believe happens far too often.  That "confirmation bias" aspect I mentioned earlier   they find stats that support what they prefer to believe, and from that point on it's mostly a matter of who is most stubborn in their determination of which stat matters most.

 

I picked the Braves mostly because I admired their willingness to step up and get replacements to fill the voids that opened up for them

[bobrob2004]

45 minutes ago, Useful Idiot said:

You've always been a decent guy, so I'm going to give it to you straight.  Both were(are) disappointments at the plate as Tigers....that really is similarity enough for me. The (additional) fact that both were(are) shortstops, as well as former Cubs is just icing on the cake.  I don't care if goober wants to argue that one was an eagle scout while the other skipped school, or any other incidental differences they can dredge up to plea their case.... to me the significant similarities take precedence.

Javy will continue to remind me of Neifi, until he starts to hit...it's  really just as simple as that. I don't care what stat anyone cares to pull out of their.....hat...(lol) to contend otherwise.  Silly me, I just don't believe that I need anyone's approval to make that analogy.

I'll tell you what I've come to believe in just the past 24 hours...I believe I've struck a vein.

If I had, for example, claimed that Miguel Cabrera was Neifi Perez, or that Alan Trammel was Neifi Perez, I believe that most members here would have just discounted my claim as pure nutso, and that would have been the end of it.

QUITE IN CONTRAST,  just based upon the response I have been able to stimulate, I suspect that the allegation seems just plausible enough to require defense against.....as Stewie Griffin might say "Victory is Mine!!"

Is Baez a disappointment so far?  Sure. The difference now is expectations.  Baez is suppose to be hitting better than he is right now while Perez was never expected to be a productive hitter. 

Based on past performance, it is reasonable to expect that Baez' numbers will be better by the end of the season than they are right now. 

It seems obvious now that you just picked a former weak hitting Tiger shortstop that was also a former Cub to base the comparison and never actually wanted a statistical analytical discussion.