General Tiger Discussion

[lordstanley]

  On 2/12/2022 at 6:40 PM, sabretooth said:

Chet was a very good glove, one of the best I've sern game in game out for 10+ years.

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The only World Series I've ever been to is Game 3 in '84. The Tigers won in a blowout, tons of walks, but one memorable play - great catch by Lemon in the 7th inning I believe.

[casimir]

  On 2/12/2022 at 6:40 PM, sabretooth said:

Chet was a very good glove, one of the best I've sern game in game out for 10+ years.

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A darn good CF for being a converted 3B.

Another thing about Lemon, he led the league in HBP for 4 out of 5 consecutive seasons.

And another thing…… happy 67th birthday, Chet.

[Tiger337]

 

 

[casimir]

https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/chet-lemon/
 

Read it.

[sabretooth]

  On 2/13/2022 at 2:51 AM, casimir said:

https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/chet-lemon/
 

Read it.

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Good stuff!

[Tenacious D]

[Biff Mayhem]

  On 2/12/2022 at 2:38 PM, chasfh said:

Frank Beckmann was one of the voices of my young adulthood. His is one of those voices that is imprinted in my brain such that I can replay it pretty faithfully.

 

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"If you didn't enjoy the game then I certainly hope you enjoyed the broadcast." That might not be verbatim but always loved the closing line.

[buddha]

pecota tiger numbers are.....not good.

PECOTA is not a huge fan of Javier Baez. The system projects the shortstop to contribute just 1.4 wins above replacement (WARP) with a .229 batting average, .685 OPS and 82 DRC+.

[Tiger337]

  On 2/15/2022 at 11:02 PM, buddha said:

pecota tiger numbers are.....not good.

PECOTA is not a huge fan of Javier Baez. The system projects the shortstop to contribute just 1.4 wins above replacement (WARP) with a .229 batting average, .685 OPS and 82 DRC+.

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That is harsh.  Most systems have him between 2.5-3.0 WAR.  

[gehringer_2]

  On 2/16/2022 at 2:09 AM, Tiger337 said:

That is harsh.  Most systems have him between 2.5-3.0 WAR.  

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the buddha may be contemplative, but he offers no quarter.

[buddha]

  On 2/16/2022 at 3:09 AM, gehringer_2 said:

the buddha may be contemplative, but he offers no quarter.

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1) i think baez will be baez at the plate: strike out a ton and not hit as many homers.  i think pecota is closer to what his actual numbers will be in detroit.

2) you should see the other predictions.  suffice to say they dont think much of our prospects next year (except tork), and the pitching will be bad (although it likes skubal a lot more than mize and especially manning).

tigers are an under 500 team by pecota.

[Tiger337]

  On 2/16/2022 at 3:24 AM, buddha said:

1) i think baez will be baez at the plate: strike out a ton and not hit as many homers.  i think pecota is closer to what his actual numbers will be in detroit.

2) you should see the other predictions.  suffice to say they dont think much of our prospects next year (except tork), and the pitching will be bad (although it likes skubal a lot more than mize and especially manning).

tigers are an under 500 team by pecota.

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I think most systems have them under .500.  The Tigers are counting on a lot of young players and young players don't usually have good projections.  

Edited February 16, 2022 by Tiger337

[Tiger337]

  On 2/16/2022 at 3:24 AM, buddha said:

1) i think baez will be baez at the plate: strike out a ton and not hit as many homers.  i think pecota is closer to what his actual numbers will be in detroit.

2) you should see the other predictions.  suffice to say they dont think much of our prospects next year (except tork), and the pitching will be bad (although it likes skubal a lot more than mize and especially manning).

tigers are an under 500 team by pecota.

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I think Baez would only be a 1.4 WAR player if his defense is sub-par.  

[gehringer_2]

  On 2/16/2022 at 3:24 AM, buddha said:

1) i think baez will be baez at the plate: strike out a ton and not hit as many homers.  i think pecota is closer to what his actual numbers will be in detroit.

2) you should see the other predictions.  suffice to say they dont think much of our prospects next year (except tork), and the pitching will be bad (although it likes skubal a lot more than mize and especially manning).

tigers are an under 500 team by pecota.

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I don't see the pitching being bad unless the kids get hurt, which is always possible. I don't think Mize, Skubal or even Manning were getting by with smoke and mirrors and are prime candidates to turn into pumpkins. They've shown what they can do against ML hitters. If anything projections that like Tork/Greene or any other hitter that hasn't done it against MLB pitching would be where I could see the big misses. My rule of hitters is that their plateaus are pretty much invisible until they actual hit them, which can be at any level step. As they say  - previous results do not insure future performance. 

[Tiger337]

I can definitely see the pitching being bad.  They have one pitcher in their roation that has ever pitched over 160 innings and he has done it only once.  I can also see them being good if the young pitchers emerge quickly and stay healthy.  It's a big question mark though.    

[oblong]

geez.... now I don't care if the season starts

 

[buddha]

  On 2/16/2022 at 2:12 PM, Tiger337 said:

I can definitely see the pitching being bad.  They have one pitcher in their roation that has ever pitched over 160 innings and he has done it only once.  I can also see them being good if the young pitchers emerge quickly and stay healthy.  It's a big question mark though.    

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the linear progression we assume is coming may not happen.

[KL2]

  On 2/16/2022 at 2:12 PM, Tiger337 said:

I can definitely see the pitching being bad.  They have one pitcher in their roation that has ever pitched over 160 innings and he has done it only once.  I can also see them being good if the young pitchers emerge quickly and stay healthy.  It's a big question mark though.    

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Just curious why is 160 the cut off? Why not 150? 

150 Mize did last, Skubal was 149.1 and Spencer was two innings below it in 2019. Eduardo has done it a couple times now. 

[Tiger337]

  On 2/16/2022 at 6:05 PM, KL2 said:

Just curious why is 160 the cut off? Why not 150? 

150 Mize did last, Skubal was 149.1 and Spencer was two innings below it in 2019. Eduardo has done it a couple times now. 

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Both cutoffs tell the same story, that is, their pitchers have very little experience pitching a full season of innings.  I could have used 162 since 162 innings is what a pitcher needs to qualify for the ERA title.  Another number I could have chosen was 165 which would say that a pitcher had 33 starts (a full season) averaging five innings per start. 

Edited February 16, 2022 by Tiger337

[KL2]

  On 2/16/2022 at 6:50 PM, Tiger337 said:

Both cutoffs tell the same story, that is, their pitchers have very little experience pitching a full season of innings.  I could have used 162 since 162 innings is what a pitcher needs to qualify for the ERA title.  Another number I could have chosen was 165 which would say that a pitcher had 33 starts (a full season) averaging five innings per start. 

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Yes you could have. That's why I asked why what appeared to be a random 160. 

[RandyMarsh]

Nats offered Soto 13/350 and he turned it down. Assuming salaries don't take a drastic change for the worse in the coming years I think that was a wise decision. He hits the open market in 3 years at just 26 years old and I think he should easily clear 10/350 just in those years when he does.

Edited February 16, 2022 by RandyMarsh

[Tiger337]

  On 2/16/2022 at 7:34 PM, KL2 said:

Yes you could have. That's why I asked why what appeared to be a random 160. 

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Thank you, I have decided to go with 165 instead of 160. 🙂  

[John_Brian_K]

  On 2/16/2022 at 8:01 PM, RandyMarsh said:

Nats offered Soto 13/350 and he turned it down. Assuming salaries don't take a drastic change for the worse in the coming years I think that was a wise decision. He hits the open market in 3 years at just 26 years old and I think he should easily clear 10/350 just in those years when he does.

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I get it, these guys are different etc, but I am not sure I could turn that much money down...putting in perspective If I currently make an average salary in the USA of around 53,000.00 the equivalent of min salary in the MLB 570,500.00 and someone offered me 2,500,000.00 a year raise......even if I thought I could hold out for 3,250,000.00 as long as my production does not decrease....that would just be hard to turn down.

[SoCalTiger]

13/350 now in hand. Yes he should take it. Lots can happen in 3 years and some of it could be bad. 

[Cruzer1]

  On 2/17/2022 at 6:11 AM, SoCalTiger said:

13/350 now in hand. Yes he should take it. Lots can happen in 3 years and some of it could be bad. 

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I disagree. He's going to get a great deal.