5/26 7:10 Guardians @ Tigers

[Tigeraholic1]

Comerica Park - Detroit, MI

TV: Ballysports Detroit Radio: WXYT

Forecast

LHP Connor Pilkington vs LHP Tarik Skubal

 

 

[Jim Cowan]

Any day that Skubal is starting is a good day.

[Tiger337]

Tarik Skubal is looking good on all the fancy FanGraphs numbers:

Fangraphs Ranks:

WAR 2

xERA 3

FIP 2

K-BB% 9

SIERA 7

ERA 12

[mtutiger]

Wonder if the Tigers hitters will be able to get to Cy Pilkington?

[gehringer_2]

  On 5/26/2022 at 2:34 PM, mtutiger said:

Wonder if the Tigers hitters will be able to get to Cy Pilkington?

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If Mother Nature doesn't get to the game first. T Showers supposedly going to be 'isolated' so with luck maybe just work around a delay.

[chasfh]

  On 5/26/2022 at 2:28 PM, Tiger337 said:

Tarik Skubal is looking good on all the fancy FanGraphs numbers:

Fangraphs Ranks:

WAR 2

xERA 3

FIP 2

K-BB% 9

SIERA 7

ERA 12

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He's even top 20 on RA9-WAR, which is results-based and doesn't adjust for BABIP or LOB%. In other words, as good as his results have been, he's actually been a little unlucky. Speaking of luck: Justin Verlander has a 2.8 RA9-WAR with a 1.5 WAR. Two reasons: (1) .195 BABIP; (2) 95.7% strand rate.

[RandyMarsh]

Connor Pilkington? Yeah he definitely got got his lunch money taken from him as a kid. 

[chasfh]

  On 5/26/2022 at 3:26 PM, RandyMarsh said:

Connor Pilkington? Yeah he definitely got got his lunch money taken from him as a kid. 

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Until he was ten, by which time he'd already grown to 6'1" and 210 lbs.

[RandyMarsh]

  On 5/26/2022 at 2:28 PM, Tiger337 said:

Tarik Skubal is looking good on all the fancy FanGraphs numbers:

Fangraphs Ranks:

WAR 2

xERA 3

FIP 2

K-BB% 9

SIERA 7

ERA 12

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It would be nice if we got atleast one ace out of our "big 3". I suppose realistically 1 out of 3 was probably the best we could've hoped for. 

[gehringer_2]

  On 5/26/2022 at 3:42 PM, RandyMarsh said:

It would be nice if we got atleast one ace out of our "big 3". I suppose realistically 1 out of 3 was probably the best we could've hoped for. 

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I think you still have a better than even money chance of getting three solid starters out of Skubal, Turnbull, Faedo, Mize, and Manning.

The more frightening thing with regard to baseball in general is that Faedo, Skubal and Turnbull have all had TJ and Mize already has UCL issues. That's an 80% rate on a single injury class. If OSHA regulated baseball, pitching would be banned.

Edited May 26, 2022 by gehringer_2

[kdog]

https://www.audacy.com/971theticket/sports/detroit-tigers/a-j-hinch-committed-to-detroit-i-love-being-a-tiger

 

  Quote

 

On if he's worried about Javier Baez's slump: "No, because his track record has shown he’s snapped out of it every time. He’s started to hit the ball a little bit harder. But we’ve gotta get him in the strike zone and he’s gotta commit to a little more refined approach. He did draw a walk yesterday, which is a good sign. But it can be a little frustrating from the standpoint of, we all want him to be the productive guy that he’s been. He’s going to be that guy. He’s proved it over time. But as he’s tried to do more, he’s actually done less.

"I think if we can relieve some pressure off him and get some other guys going, you’ll find that he can pick it up more. The more he tries to carry this team, the more outside the strike zone he’s gone, and that’s not productive."

 

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Edited May 26, 2022 by kdog

[Tiger337]

  On 5/26/2022 at 3:50 PM, gehringer_2 said:

I think you still have a better than even money chance of getting three solid starters out of Skubal, Turnbull, Faedo, Mize, and Manning.

The more frightening thing with regard to baseball in general is that Faedo, Skubal and Turnbull have all had TJ and Mize already has UCL issues. That's an 80% rate on a single injury class. If OSHA regulated baseball, pitching would be banned.

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I think getting three solid strters would be a great outcome.  It's possible, but I am less optimistic than you about the odds.     

[RandyMarsh]

I remember when we first drafted Porcello there were talks we be the modern day Braves with him JV, Bonderman and Miller. We got one ace out of the 4, one servicable starter in Rick, a stud reliever(well not us but you get the picture) and a flame out. If we could get something similar out of our top 4 now that wouldn't be the worst thing. 

[kdog]

I thought Mize without the splitter would be a durable mid-range starter.  Now that he's hurt and teetering towards TJ surgery, I have to wonder if he even be decent.

[mtutiger]

  On 5/26/2022 at 4:04 PM, kdog said:

https://www.audacy.com/971theticket/sports/detroit-tigers/a-j-hinch-committed-to-detroit-i-love-being-a-tiger

 

 

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Buried the lead... AJ seems happy

[mtutiger]

  On 5/26/2022 at 4:13 PM, RandyMarsh said:

I remember when we first drafted Porcello there were talks we be the modern day Braves with him JV, Bonderman and Miller. We got one ace out of the 4, one servicable starter in Rick, a stud reliever(well not us but you get the picture) and a flame out. If we could get something similar out of our top 4 now that wouldn't be the worst thing. 

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This is kinda where I'm at.

I have a lot of concerns about Mize, but if Skubal remains a stud and Manning/Faedo are serviceable, that's a fine result.

[casimir]

  On 5/26/2022 at 6:58 PM, mtutiger said:

This is kinda where I'm at.

I have a lot of concerns about Mize, but if Skubal remains a stud and Manning/Faedo are serviceable, that's a fine result.

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So the 9th rounder is a diamond in the rough, and the 1st rounders are serviceable?  Unacceptable.

[mtutiger]

  On 5/26/2022 at 7:16 PM, casimir said:

So the 9th rounder is a diamond in the rough, and the 1st rounders are serviceable?  Unacceptable.

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The status as a first rounder is something people get really hung up on... particularly with Mize. And I get it, with the higher selection comes higher expectations.

But in the alternate world where Mize or Faedo or Manning are studs and the others are serviceable, is the end result any different?

[casimir]

  On 5/26/2022 at 7:20 PM, mtutiger said:

The status as a first rounder is something people get really hung up on... particularly with Mize. And I get it, with the higher selection comes higher expectations.

But in the alternate world where Mize or Faedo or Manning are studs and the others are serviceable, is the end result any different?

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In that instance it would seem the 1sts are fails and the 9th is luck.  A team cannot tank then swing & miss on 1sts.  They simply can't.

[gehringer_2]

  On 5/26/2022 at 6:55 PM, mtutiger said:

Buried the lead... AJ seems happy

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I bet Torkelson is going to have a few words for his manager for calling him a 'plodder' - 

[mtutiger]

  On 5/26/2022 at 7:22 PM, casimir said:

In that instance it would seem the 1sts are fails and the 9th is luck.  

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I'd be curious to hear G2 or Lee's thoughts, but I'm not sure that I agree with the standard that all #1 draft picks who aren't bona fide studs are failures. Particularly with the fact that there's a not insignificant amount of first round picks who don't even make the big leagues.

[RandyMarsh]

  On 5/26/2022 at 7:22 PM, casimir said:

In that instance it would seem the 1sts are fails and the 9th is luck.  A team cannot tank then swing & miss on 1sts.  They simply can't.

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Well if Greene and Tork end up being stars I think that would offset the potential busts of Manning and Mize.  That would essentially be about a 50% hit rate on your top 10 picks(not counting jobe) which I would imagine is about the best you could realistically hope for. 

[RandyMarsh]

Also in regards to Mize, the team can only draft the players that are available and looking at the first 10 picks in that draft and none of them have amounted to anything as of yet.

India was good last year but has been below replacement level this year, Bohm and Kelenic have been busts at the mlb level, Madigral has already been traded and appears to have a limited ceiling. Bart has a small big league sample but in it he has been terrible. 

So really if all the options end up being terrible can you really fault the Tigers if their draft pick doesn't pan out?

[Tenacious D]

why are we even considering that either Mize or Manning might be a bust?  players get injured and often come back and can be productive.  Even if either requires a significant surgery, it's not a death sentence for their career.  Sure, it would be a setback and defer their contributions, but until we learn that they can't be productive contributors to a winning team, I'd encourage some healthy cautious optimism.

Meadows is the one I'm concerned with--I really hope whatever he's going through is temporary.  I was excited about adding him to the roster for at least the next couple of seasons.

 

 

[gehringer_2]

  On 5/26/2022 at 7:35 PM, RandyMarsh said:

Madigral has already been traded and appears to have a limited ceiling. Bart has a small big league sample but in it he has been terrible. 

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Madrigal was looking like a pretty good pro but has suffered a very serious injury for a ball player. That's one I would chalk up to bad luck. People have argued the Tigers could/should have foreseen Mize's arm trouble, that is at least an arguable proposition, but nobody foresees a guy completely blowing up his hammy.