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2022 NCAA Football Thread


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Okay, Okay,  

Lets say Georgia wins out and beats LSU convincingly in the SEC Title Game

Lets say TCU loses  to Iowa State

Michigan beats Ohio State in a close game, then wins the Big Ten Championship game

UCLA takes out USC tonight and then beats Utah in the Pac 10 title game

Would that mean

1 - Georgia

2  Michigan

3  Ohio State

4 Who..........Alabama?  

Alabama can still get in this thing,  but they'd have to change the rakings to 1 - Georgia 2 - Michigan 3 - Alabama  4 - Ohio State to avoid two conference games in the Semis.  Alabama has lost two razor-thin games on the road.  

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Okay......... so Tuesday night

 

1 - Georgia

2 - Ohio State

3 - Michigan

4 - TCU

5 - LSU

6 - USC

7 - Alabama  - Still very much in it

8 - Clemson 

 

(and if Utah wins)

9 - Utah

10 - Tennesee

 

(if Utah loses)

9 - Tennesee

10 - Penn State

 

If Michigan loses a close game and LSU loses to Georgia and USC loses that Pac 12 championship.......they are still very much in the playoff picture.  

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With Tennessee losing today, I think all the loser of UM/OSU needs (in addition to a relatively close game) is for two of the following to happen:

1) Georgia to win the SEC, and/or

2) TCU loss (either to Iowa State or in the Big 12 Championship), and/or

3) USC loss (either to Notre Dame or in the Pac 12 Championship).

11-1 Michigan or 11-1 Ohio State will get in before any two-loss team. A 12-1 Clemson presents an interesting case, and I think if all three of the above happen they may make it over Alabama as the 4-seed (or 3-seed if the committee wants to avoid an immediate UM/OSU rematch), but I don't see them jumping far enough with wins over South Carolina and UNC to hop over either Michigan or Ohio State. Their 21-point loss to ND will be outweighed by a close loss to a playoff team.

I think 1 is almost a sure thing. I think one of 2 or 3 happening is very likely too, if not both.

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Discounting something truly crazy happening, like Georgia losing out, I think there are very few possibilities left for the four spots...

1. Georgia, TCU, and USC win out: (1) Georgia, (2) UM/OSU Winner, (3) TCU, (4) USC

2. Georgia wins out and one of TCU/USC loses: (1) Georgia, (2) UM/OSU Winner, (3) TCU/USC Survivor, (4) UM/OSU Loser

3. Georgia wins out and both TCU and USC lose: (1) Georgia, (2) UM/OSU Winner, (3) UM/OSU Loser, (4) Clemson/Alabama (who gets the 4th spot between Clemson and Alabama if Clemson wins the ACC would probably be the most controversial scenario)

4. LSU and TCU win out: (1) UM/OSU Winner, (2) TCU, (3) Georgia, (4) LSU

5. LSU and USC win out, and TCU loses: (1) UM/OSU Winner, (2) Georgia, (3) USC, (4) LSU

6. LSU wins out and both USC and TCU lose: (1) UM/OSU Winner, (2) Georgia, (3) UM/OSU Loser, (4) LSU

 

Half include the UM/OSU loser still making it... I think #2 may be the most likely.

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50 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

93 combined points in the USC-UCLA game today.  The entire Big Ten West combined to score 95 total points today.

The 3 pts on the rekick after Lynch missed a FG going into half-time but Kelly had called a late time-out so he got 2nd chance was the difference.....:classic_biggrin:

Edited by gehringer_2
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12 hours ago, lordstanley said:

What, you really think Georgia, Ohio St and TCU did much more than Michigan this week? Kentucky, Illinois, Baylor and Maryland are all around the same level of mediocrity. The top 4, who all struggled, will stay the same. 

What about:

1.  Georgia

2a - 2c:  Pick the order of UoM/TCU/OSU out of a hat.

5. USC

6. Clemson

7- 10:  Pick the order of LSU/PSU/Tennessee/Alabama out of a hat.

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1 minute ago, buddha said:

not to throw a completely unrealistic monkey wrench into everything, but the um/osu winner could lose the big ten championship game...

Its possible, but nobody wants to hear it.  Yesterday was a good reminder that theory doesn't always match reality.  These teams are 18-20some year olds that have their inconsistencies from game to game.

I think that the only thing that can be assumed is that the committee will avoid rematches at 1v4 and 2v3.

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