2022 NCAA Football Thread

[buddha]

1 hour ago, Hongbit said:

USC was just open and he wasn’t even a candidate.  

He can absolutely win at Auburn.   Bama is their own thing but the rest of the SEC goes through cycles and LSU, Georgia, Florida, and Auburn have all had championship runs in a the last 20 years.  

auburn is rock bottom right now.  how old is urban?  he's not there for a four year rebuild.

[casimir]

Duct tape & Natty Light cans.  Shouldn't be any supply chain issues on a college campus.  Gives the engineering department a project.  Probably cost effective.

[Deleterious]

Someone posted the ratings from this weeks games.

1. Alabama-Tennessee (CBS): 11.557M (highest of season so far)
2. Penn State-Michigan (FOX): 6.453M
3. Clemson-Florida State (ABC): 3.197M
4. USC-Utah (FOX): 2.742M
5. LSU-Florida (ESPN): 2.455M
6. Wisconsin-Michigan State (FOX): 2.452M
7. Iowa State-Texas (ABC): 2.351M
8. Stanford-Notre Dame (NBC): 2.154M
9. Oklahoma State-TCU (ABC): 2.136M
10. Auburn-Ole Miss (ESPN): 2.064M

[djhutch]

2 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Someone posted the ratings from this weeks games.

1. Alabama-Tennessee (CBS): 11.557M (highest of season so far)
2. Penn State-Michigan (FOX): 6.453M
3. Clemson-Florida State (ABC): 3.197M
4. USC-Utah (FOX): 2.742M
5. LSU-Florida (ESPN): 2.455M
6. Wisconsin-Michigan State (FOX): 2.452M
7. Iowa State-Texas (ABC): 2.351M
8. Stanford-Notre Dame (NBC): 2.154M
9. Oklahoma State-TCU (ABC): 2.136M
10. Auburn-Ole Miss (ESPN): 2.064M

I wonder if that Alabama-Tennessee game benefited from a huge number of people who tuned in during the 2nd half when they realized there was a chance for an upset?  That's a huge spread between 1-2.

[buddha]

2 hours ago, djhutch said:

I wonder if that Alabama-Tennessee game benefited from a huge number of people who tuned in during the 2nd half when they realized there was a chance for an upset?  That's a huge spread between 1-2.

dear nbc, you see the difference between the big ten and notre dame?  that nd game was in prime time and didnt even get as many viewers as michigan state!  

[buddha]

notre dame drew 10 million when they played ohio state.  they have less than 3 million for every other game on the schedule.

in contrast, michigan has drawn over 4 million in every big ten game, and almost drew 4 million for colorado state.  ohio state is the same.  even sparty does better rating than notre dame in a lot of weeks.

put notre dame in the big ten and you'll get over 10 million when they play ohio state and michigan, over 6 or 7 when the play penn state or michigan state or even wisconsin, and probably 3 million in every other game.

[casimir]

F ND.

[romad1]

had this conversation earlier today with a fellow M fan. 

Assume for a second that northern intimidation of SEC and other elite southern schools may be damaging to CFB overall.  That's a beginning premise to this. 

Assume also that CFB viewership of northern schools is very strong nationwide because so many people went to B1G and other schools and have strong emotional attachments. 

So, the argument was proposed to me back when the bad thing happened and App State beat Michigan that App State winning that game was "great for College Football"  

The game happened as the result of M's arrogance, lazy coaching, poor citizenship, lack of moral fiber and any number of other things that could have caused such a comeuppance and was not by design of anything more sinister than whatever gamblers might have been interested in the result (JK).   Not a conspiracy in the sense of the Protocols of the learned elders of Heisman or anything like it.  

I propose after some reflection that Michigan going into the dumpster and ceding the B1G to OSU for a decade and a half with MSU raising its nose out of the burning couch fires enough to be relevant was not actually good for College Football.  

It meant that serious talent went or stayed South.  It meant that the highly valued TV product of B1G football was devalued.  While Clemson and Alabama and an occasional LSU/Auburn team would show up basically the game was stuck with a lot of sameness.  

Similarly, I think in this vein that CFB needs a strong and relevant Notre Dame which it does not have. 

This is already too long a post but you get the idea.  That the sport needs strong "Blue State" college teams.  Its better when USC is strong.  Its better when ND and Michigan are throwing haymakers at each other that first couple weeks and the result isn't going to destroy the loser. 

Here is hoping that M can get to a point where it isn't ludicrous to think it could challenge for a natty. 

 

Edited October 19, 2022 by romad1

[MichiganCardinal]

CFB doesn't need a strong Notre Dame. The sport certainly benefits from strong midwest schools, but that could just as easily be Michigan, OSU, MSU, Penn State, et al. in any given year. It's more about competition and quantity than it is any individual school and quality. The sport would also benefit if the PAC-12 wasn't such a vacuum chamber of mediocrity, yet here we are. You don't want the sport turning into college baseball, where the midwest has no real chance, but practically speaking, that will never happen. It exists in baseball due to the climate of the midwest and the lack of funding (and interest) to build domed stadiums and training facilities for the midwest programs. They simply can't compete with southern schools who live and breath baseball 24/7/365.

The problem of the last decade in CFB (as defined by fans of schools that are not Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State) vested in the playoff format. Having four teams be all that can win a championship in any given year necessarily lends itself to a funneling of virtually all talent to select schools that have demonstrated they can be one of those four teams year-in and year-out. If you wanted to win a championship in college football, you had very strong reason to go to one of those schools, where Saban, Dabo, and Tressel/Meyer cracked the code for success (i.e., cheating without getting caught).

I think we will see a dilution of talent with the expansion of the playoff. It might take some time, but good recruiting coupled with good coaching at a midsize school might actually mean something moving forward. I think that is what could be really good for college football. To see a school like Minnesota in 2019 or Cincinnati in 2021 make a run in the playoffs and actually compete with the upper echelon of SEC schools - that would be really good for the sport and really cool to see.

With four playoff teams, Minnesota or Cincinnati can recruit their butts off and coach their butts off, but it doesn't mean anything in the long run when Saban can just step out his front door and have 5* recruits line up to play for him. Minnesota's peak is the 2019 Outback Bowl... If those schools can legitimately sell "hey, you can come here and we expect to compete for a championship", you might get some of those 5* kids who would otherwise go to Alabama or Ohio State to buy-in.

[djhutch]

2 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I think we will see a dilution of talent with the expansion of the playoff. It might take some time, but good recruiting coupled with good coaching at a midsize school might actually mean something moving forward. I think that is what could be really good for college football. To see a school like Minnesota in 2019 or Cincinnati in 2021 make a run in the playoffs and actually compete with the upper echelon of SEC schools - that would be really good for the sport and really cool to see.

With four playoff teams, Minnesota or Cincinnati can recruit their butts off and coach their butts off, but it doesn't mean anything in the long run when Saban can just step out his front door and have 5* recruits line up to play for him. Minnesota's peak is the 2019 Outback Bowl... If those schools can legitimately sell "hey, you can come here and we expect to compete for a championship", you might get some of those 5* kids who would otherwise go to Alabama or Ohio State to buy-in.

I have not been a fan of expanding the playoff, mostly because I haven't been a fan of what the current system has done to the bowl games.  I guess I'm a bit of a traditionalist.  However, once it became obvious that the playoff was here to stay, & watching how there are about 3-4 power schools that seem to just bounce around in different orders every year, expanding is the only thing that will open that up, & as you said "expand the talent." 

Couple that with the transfer portal, & teams should be able to get better more quickly.

[romad1]

2 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

CFB doesn't need a strong Notre Dame. The sport certainly benefits from strong midwest schools, but that could just as easily be Michigan, OSU, MSU, Penn State, et al. in any given year. It's more about competition and quantity than it is any individual school and quality. The sport would also benefit if the PAC-12 wasn't such a vacuum chamber of mediocrity, yet here we are. You don't want the sport turning into college baseball, where the midwest has no real chance, but practically speaking, that will never happen. It exists in baseball due to the climate of the midwest and the lack of funding (and interest) to build domed stadiums and training facilities for the midwest programs. They simply can't compete with southern schools who live and breath baseball 24/7/365.

The problem of the last decade in CFB (as defined by fans of schools that are not Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State) vested in the playoff format. Having four teams be all that can win a championship in any given year necessarily lends itself to a funneling of virtually all talent to select schools that have demonstrated they can be one of those four teams year-in and year-out. If you wanted to win a championship in college football, you had very strong reason to go to one of those schools, where Saban, Dabo, and Tressel/Meyer cracked the code for success (i.e., cheating without getting caught).

I think we will see a dilution of talent with the expansion of the playoff. It might take some time, but good recruiting coupled with good coaching at a midsize school might actually mean something moving forward. I think that is what could be really good for college football. To see a school like Minnesota in 2019 or Cincinnati in 2021 make a run in the playoffs and actually compete with the upper echelon of SEC schools - that would be really good for the sport and really cool to see.

With four playoff teams, Minnesota or Cincinnati can recruit their butts off and coach their butts off, but it doesn't mean anything in the long run when Saban can just step out his front door and have 5* recruits line up to play for him. Minnesota's peak is the 2019 Outback Bowl... If those schools can legitimately sell "hey, you can come here and we expect to compete for a championship", you might get some of those 5* kids who would otherwise go to Alabama or Ohio State to buy-in.

I think ND has a significant role as an avatar of a certain type of blue collar sports fan.   You can dislike the totems of that like i do.   That person is starting to slip away demographically as organized religion ebbs and flows.   I used to enjoy having M as the representation of Enlightenment values play their dark ages values and see who came out ahead.   

[MichiganCardinal]

Iowa / Ohio State and Syracuse / Clemson at 12

UCLA / Oregon and Ole Miss / LSU at 330

MS State / Alabama and Kansas State / TCU at 7

I think we could see a number of unbeatens go down today

[RandyMarsh]

According to ESPN's Playoff Predictor using FPI as of now if Michigan's only loss is to OSU they would still have a 52% chance of making the playoffs. If they lose before OSU but beat them and win the championship game they have a 89% chance of making it. 

Edited October 22, 2022 by RandyMarsh

[RandyMarsh]

This Iowa/OSU game is crazy thus far, we're only 2 minutes into the game and each team has had 2 possessions, there have 2 turnovers, a punt, a FG and a fumble returned for a TD. Iowa up 7-3 but again only 2 minutes into the game. 

[MichiganCardinal]

Watching Clemson-Syracuse, I'm not sure that a one-loss ACC champion would make the playoff this year over a one-loss B1G team. The Clemson bias is still out there, so it wouldn't shock me if it's them, but this is a two-conference league now.

[casimir]

3 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

According to ESPN's Playoff Predictor using FPI as of now if Michigan's only loss is to OSU they would still have a 52% chance of making the playoffs. If they lose before OSU but beat them and win the championship game they have a 89% chance of making it. 

Provided there are no health or extraterrestrial issues between now and late November, it‘ll be undefeated Michigan at undefeated Ohio State.  Book it.

[lordstanley]

Clemson survives but doesn’t impress me. Stupid late hit with Syracuse up 11 late in the 3rd shifted it. Syracuse had it around Clemson’s 25 with 26 seconds to go, a converted TD would win it, but threw a pick. 

[Hongbit]

52 minutes ago, casimir said:

Provided there are no health or extraterrestrial issues between now and late November, it‘ll be undefeated Michigan at undefeated Ohio State.  Book it.

I feel just as confident that one of them will lay an egg and lose before the game.  

[MichiganCardinal]

43 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

I feel just as confident that one of them will lay an egg and lose before the game.  

If the B1G was having a normal year I would agree. It’s just 1a, 1b, and the field though to this point.

I don’t think Michigan will be tested by anyone except maybe Illinois (and that could be a blow out itself).

Ohio State has Penn State in Happy Valley next week… mayyybe that one will ruin the 11-0 v 11-0 matchup? Penn State sure didn’t seem interested in challenging for the 2nd best team in the conference last week though.

[Hongbit]

It won’t be logical.  It’s college football.  

[casimir]

1 hour ago, Hongbit said:

It won’t be logical.  It’s college football.  

This is a sports message forum.  Toss your logic to the side and post away.

[casimir]

2 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

If the B1G was having a normal year I would agree. It’s just 1a, 1b, and the field though to this point.

I don’t think Michigan will be tested by anyone except maybe Illinois (and that could be a blow out itself).

Ohio State has Penn State in Happy Valley next week… mayyybe that one will ruin the 11-0 v 11-0 matchup? Penn State sure didn’t seem interested in challenging for the 2nd best team in the conference last week though.

I agree with you about 1a and 1b.  It is reminiscent of the days of the Big Two and Little Eight.

I think both Michigan (vs Illinois) and Ohio State (at Maryland) have the possibility to be caught looking ahead in their respective games before each other.  But I don't think I'd call them trap games, at least with respect to the possibility of actually losing.

Penn State has a chance to redeem itself a bit tonight vs Minnesota.  Its their white out game, so maybe they'll be juiced up for it.

[Hongbit]

Both teams will be double digit favorites every game the rest of the way but the best team doesn’t always win.  

I’m not even so sure both will win next weekend. 

[buddha]

4 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

If the B1G was having a normal year I would agree. It’s just 1a, 1b, and the field though to this point.

I don’t think Michigan will be tested by anyone except maybe Illinois (and that could be a blow out itself).

Ohio State has Penn State in Happy Valley next week… mayyybe that one will ruin the 11-0 v 11-0 matchup? Penn State sure didn’t seem interested in challenging for the 2nd best team in the conference last week though.

michigan will be tested by michigan state and illinois.  

illinois is legit and this is msu's super bowl.  i expect it to either be a close game down to the wire because a bunch of crazy shit happens or i expect michigan to handle them and msu soends the 4th quarter trying to injure michigan players.

[buddha]

penn state matches up better against ohio state than they do michigan.

that said, i still think the buckeyes beat them by two touchdowns.

the best scenario for michigan is penn state winning out except for the ohio state game.  illinois too.