6/5 11:35 Tigers @ Yankees

[chasfh]

I think there are some things about Lange that might make his case a little different from the typical Tigers reliever who is good in some small samples only to be terrible in others.

For one thing, his B-Ref peripherals are stronger this year. Yes, he was soft in Toledo last year and there was some mirage to his decent stats last year, but his FIP is way down and his strikeout rate his ticked up. On Fangraphs we see his SIERA is lower and swinging strike rate is up, which tracks with his lower FIP.

Yesterday he hurt his outcome stats a bit with two walks, but on the other hand, it was his longest outing of the year by far: 1-2/3 innings, nine batters faced, 31 pitches. He cruised through the first inning with three outs on 12 pitches, but then there were the two walks at the end, and if it was anyone batting but terrible-no good-doesn’t-know-what-he’s-doing-lately Joey Gallo, it might have been three walks, who knows. Point is, we may be learning that Lange is not a 30-pitch guy, which may actually strengthen the argument to try him as closer at some point.

His Statcast process peripherals, though, are much better than even his improved peripherals:

Ground ball rate, line drive rate, weak contact, solid hits, barrels—almost doesn’t matter what you look at, Lange is way better this year than last year. Guys can make improvements in the offseason that can lead to these kinds of improvements.

But the thing I like best about Lange is his eye-popping Statcast card:

Like, wow. That is just a sea of red. The main thing he has to fix is that walk rate, but if he can bring that in even to 50%, this is the card of an elite late-inning reliever.

And it’s not as though the Tigers are swimming in relievers with Statcast cards that look like that:

Basically Fulmer, who’s going to bolt this offseason and get good and paid, and Lange, who we have for cheap through 2027 if we want him.

Sure, in a world where anything is possible, it’s possible that Lange’s card is a mirage and he’ll be all blue by the end of the year and into next. I’d be willing to bet against that happening, especially under the Fetter regime.

I’d hate to see one of the few decent young relievers we’ve had passing through this system just go away, the same way Chad Green and Luis Cessa and Jose Alvarez and Corey Knebel did. And so far this year, Lange looks better than all of them.

People can conclude that all relievers are basically random widgets, and root for an Alex Lange trade for some similarly-talented prospect if they want to. But me, I’m gonna root against that. I like what I see from this guy, and unless he has an abject collapse starting right around now, I’m gonna wanna see a lot more.

EDIT: Jose Alvarez, not Jose Alvarado

Edited June 6, 2022 by chasfh

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, Hongbit said:

Avila has missed on almost every single trade he’s made.  The Lange/Richan for Castellanos deal is one of the few that yielded anything.   Asking him to now trade Lange for someone that will have value seems like a reach based on his horrendous track record.     

And that's because the Cubs are terrible traders, practically the anti-Rays. Remember, we also got Candelario and Paredes for Alex Avila and Justin Wilson.

[Tiger337]

7 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I think there are some things about Lange that might make his case a little different from the typical Tigers reliever who is good in some small samples only to be terrible in others.

For one thing, his B-Ref peripherals are stronger this year. Yes, he was soft in Toledo last year and there was some mirage to his decent stats last year, but his FIP is way down and his strikeout rate his ticked up. On Fangraphs we see his SIERA is lower and swinging strike rate is up, which tracks with his lower FIP.

Yesterday he hurt his outcome stats a bit with two walks, but on the other hand, it was his longest outing of the year by far: 1-2/3 innings, nine batters faced, 31 pitches. He cruised through the first inning with three outs on 12 pitches, but then there were the two walks at the end, and if it was anyone batting but terrible-no good-doesn’t-know-what-he’s-doing-lately Joey Gallo, it might have been three walks, who knows. Point is, we may be learning that Lange is not a 30-pitch guy, which may actually strengthen the argument to try him as closer at some point.

His Statcast process peripherals, though, are much better than even his improved peripherals:

Ground ball rate, line drive rate, weak contact, solid hits, barrels—almost doesn’t matter what you look at, Lange is way better this year than last year. Guys can make improvements in the offseason that can lead to these kinds of improvements.

But the thing I like best about Lange is his eye-popping Statcast card:

Like, wow. That is just a sea of red. The main thing he has to fix is that walk rate, but if he can bring that in even to 50%, this is the card of an elite late-inning reliever.

And it’s not as though the Tigers are swimming in relievers with Statcast cards that look like that:

Basically Fulmer, who’s going to bolt this offseason and get good and paid, and Lange, who we have for cheap through 2027 if we want him.

Sure, in a world where anything is possible, it’s possible that Lange’s card is a mirage and he’ll be all blue by the end of the year and into next. I’d bet willing to bet against that happening, especially under the Fetter regime.

I’d hate to see one of the few decent young relievers we’ve had passing through this system just go away, the same way Chad Green and Luis Cessa and Jose Alvarado and Corey Knebel did.

People can conclude that all relievers are basically random widgets, and root for an Alex Lange trade for some similarly-talented prospect if they want to. But me, I’m gonna root against that. I like what I see from this guy, and unless he has an abject collapse starting right around now, I’m gonna wanna see a lot more.

 

 

 

Are his percentile rankings good because he's having a good year or are they good because he is doing something different now?  These statcast stats are generally not predictive for pitchers. His walk rate is the same as last year His BABIP is .245 and he has allowed 0 homers.  Can he keep that up?  His k rate is a little higher which is good.  

[mtutiger]

20 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I think there are some things about Lange that might make his case a little different from the typical Tigers reliever who is good in some small samples only to be terrible in others.

For one thing, his B-Ref peripherals are stronger this year. Yes, he was soft in Toledo last year and there was some mirage to his decent stats last year, but his FIP is way down and his strikeout rate his ticked up. On Fangraphs we see his SIERA is lower and swinging strike rate is up, which tracks with his lower FIP.

Yesterday he hurt his outcome stats a bit with two walks, but on the other hand, it was his longest outing of the year by far: 1-2/3 innings, nine batters faced, 31 pitches. He cruised through the first inning with three outs on 12 pitches, but then there were the two walks at the end, and if it was anyone batting but terrible-no good-doesn’t-know-what-he’s-doing-lately Joey Gallo, it might have been three walks, who knows. Point is, we may be learning that Lange is not a 30-pitch guy, which may actually strengthen the argument to try him as closer at some point.

His Statcast process peripherals, though, are much better than even his improved peripherals:

Ground ball rate, line drive rate, weak contact, solid hits, barrels—almost doesn’t matter what you look at, Lange is way better this year than last year. Guys can make improvements in the offseason that can lead to these kinds of improvements.

But the thing I like best about Lange is his eye-popping Statcast card:

Like, wow. That is just a sea of red. The main thing he has to fix is that walk rate, but if he can bring that in even to 50%, this is the card of an elite late-inning reliever.

And it’s not as though the Tigers are swimming in relievers with Statcast cards that look like that:

Basically Fulmer, who’s going to bolt this offseason and get good and paid, and Lange, who we have for cheap through 2027 if we want him.

Sure, in a world where anything is possible, it’s possible that Lange’s card is a mirage and he’ll be all blue by the end of the year and into next. I’d bet willing to bet against that happening, especially under the Fetter regime.

I’d hate to see one of the few decent young relievers we’ve had passing through this system just go away, the same way Chad Green and Luis Cessa and Jose Alvarado and Corey Knebel did.

People can conclude that all relievers are basically random widgets, and root for an Alex Lange trade for some similarly-talented prospect if they want to. But me, I’m gonna root against that. I like what I see from this guy, and unless he has an abject collapse starting right around now, I’m gonna wanna see a lot more.

 

 

 

Good and detailed post, well done.

[chasfh]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Are his percentile rankings good because he's having a good year or are they good because he is doing something different now?  These statcast stats are generally not predictive for pitchers. His walk rate is the same as last year His BABIP is .245 and he has allowed 0 homers.  Can he keep that up?  His k rate is a little higher which is good.  

Josh Hader also has a higher-than-average walk rate, a super low BABIP, and has also allowed 0 homers. Gimme that guy all year long.

[chasfh]

Also, have we really reached the point in this debate where "he has allowed 0 homers" is being offered up as a negative in support of a position?

[gehringer_2]

28 minutes ago, chasfh said:

People can conclude that all relievers are basically random widgets, and root for an Alex Lange trade

Good post.

My one quibble here is that one doesn't have to follow from the other. You can believe relievers are inconsistent and still think you are better off holding onto the ones that have at least has some success than taking new shots in the dark that  have even worse probabilities. That said, I am near the end of my rope with Jimenez! 

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

Good post.

My one quibble here is that one doesn't have to follow from the other. You can believe relievers are inconsistent and still think you are better off holding onto the ones that have at least has some success than taking new shots in the dark that  have even worse probabilities. That said, I am near the end of my rope with Jimenez! 

Thanks.

I understand that relievers are inconsistent when it comes to outcomes, mainly because of the increased variability that result from small sample sizes. That said, his Statcast percentiles rank among the highest in the game, and certain of them which are more process-based, like velocity, whiff rate, chase rate, K rate, and probably quality of contact, are probably portable from year to year.

[Tiger337]

19 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Josh Hader also has a higher-than-average walk rate, a super low BABIP, and has also allowed 0 homers. Gimme that guy all year long.

So, are you predicting that Alex Lange is the next Josh Hader?  

[mtutiger]

 

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

So, are you predicting that Alex Lange is the next Josh Hader?  

Is it your takeaway that I'm predicting Alex Lange is the next Josh Hader?

[SoCalTiger]

What about the one when he ran straight in for a ball over his head ? Change that please. Poor young Erod has to wear 3 extra runs for that one. 

And as for sample size what is the sample size needed to determine if someone can play the outfield ( W.castro/Clemens) or infield ( Lugo) ?  And does our evaluators know what it is ?

[chasfh]

28 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

 

one more data point for alex lange lol

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Is it your takeaway that I'm predicting Alex Lange is the next Josh Hader?

It seems unlikely that you would think that, but your response to my post made it seem that way.  

[buddha]

we finally got a kid in a trade who is performing well, he's under contract for cheap for a while, why would we trade him?  

and for what?  a guy who might turn into him in three years?  come on, were not the pirates.

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

It seems unlikely that you would think that, but your response to my post made it seem that way.  

I'm providing an example of another pitcher, a very successful one, with the same three issues you highlighted as being negatives about Lange. I guess what I'm saying is that having these three attributes is not proof that what Lange is doing is a mirage.

If Lange had the exact same outcomes but with the Statcast card and peripherals of Gregory Soto, with his low ERA, low strikeout rate, super high FIP and whatnot, I'd be concerned more along your lines than I am with Lange.

As I said, it could all fall apart for Lange and you could be totally right and I could be totally wrong. That's happened here before. A lot. 😁

My pushback is on the idea that we should strike while the iron is hot, or something, and flip him right away for a prospect, before he inevitably turns into a pumpkin. We don't know he's a mirage yet, though, and my overarching point is that his process stats suggest there's a pretty good chance he's for real, better chance than any other reliever in our system right now.

I just don't want to cut bait on Alex Lange just yet.

[chasfh]

3 minutes ago, buddha said:

we finally got a kid in a trade who is performing well, he's under contract for cheap for a while, why would we trade him?  

and for what?  a guy who might turn into him in three years?  come on, were not the pirates.

Then why do we have all the Pirates rejects hanging around our front office? 😏

[mtutiger]

3 hours ago, Stanley70 said:

If the Tigers 6 years into this rebuild have to move young major leaguers to restock the farm system, it shouldn't be Avila doing the trading. 

I seriously doubt Avila would even consider doing it anyways. Possibly they would move guys with expiring contracts,.

 

 

A lot of the problem (and why folks may muse about putting the entire bullpen on the block) stems from guys on expiring contracts not playing as a marketable product right now.

Outside of Fulmer, you aren't getting much back from the expiring contracts they are carrying. At least at the moment

Edited June 6, 2022 by mtutiger

[Tiger337]

20 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I'm providing an example of another pitcher, a very successful one, with the same three issues you highlighted as being negatives about Lange. I guess what I'm saying is that having these three attributes is not proof that what Lange is doing is a mirage.

If Lange had the exact same outcomes but with the Statcast card and peripherals of Gregory Soto, with his low ERA, low strikeout rate, super high FIP and whatnot, I'd be concerned more along your lines than I am with Lange.

As I said, it could all fall apart for Lange and you could be totally right and I could be totally wrong. That's happened here before. A lot. 😁

My pushback is on the idea that we should strike while the iron is hot, or something, and flip him right away for a prospect, before he inevitably turns into a pumpkin. We don't know he's a mirage yet, though, and my overarching point is that his process stats suggest there's a pretty good chance he's for real, better chance than any other reliever in our system right now.

I just don't want to cut bait on Alex Lange just yet.

 

There is nothing negative about Lange's stats right now.  I just don't have enough information about him to project his future results with any accuracy.  most pitchers with low BABIP and 0 home run rate don't sustain that performance.  We already know Hader is one of the relatively rare pitchers who can keep his BABIP consistently low, so that is not a factor for him.  Because he can keep his hit rate so low, his high above average walk rate is also not a factor. 

I am not really concerned about Lange.  I don't really have a strong opinion on him.  He's a failed starter having 40+ innings of success as a reliever.  That is a positive, but not enough information to say that he'll be a top reliever in the future.  

I am not advocating trading Lange at all.  I just don't think he is such a sure thing that I am going to make him untouchable.  I don't know that he should be any less tradeable than Will Vest who has even better numbers this year.  I wouldn't trade anyone for prospects.  I am done with that, but if they can package some relivers for a hitter who can help the next couple of years, I'd be all for it.    

 

[Tiger337]

26 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

A lot of the problem (and why folks may muse about putting the entire bullpen on the block) stems from guys on expiring contracts not playing as a marketable product right now.

Outside of Fulmer, you aren't getting much back from the expiring contracts they are carrying. At least at the moment

I'm thinking of the Willy Adames trade last year where the Rays traded Adames for two relatively unknown pitchers.  it turned out to be a good trade for both teams as Adames has been quite good since the trade, Rasmussen has surprisingly turned into a good starter at least for now and Feyereisen has been a good reliever.  

[mtutiger]

9 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I'm thinking of the Willy Adames trade last year where the Rays traded Adames for two relatively unknown pitchers.  it turned out to be a good trade for both teams as Adames has been quite good since the trade, Rasmussen has surprisingly turned into a good starter at least for now and Feyereisen has been a good reliever.  

I get it, but the initial comment framed trading bullpen pieces as a means to gather as many lottery tickets as possible.

Maybe Lange isn't untradeable under the right circumstances, but I would be against trading him for prospects at this point.... unless the haul is absolutely massive, I think he's too valuable to be wasting on lottery tickets.

Edited June 6, 2022 by mtutiger

[TigerNation]

3 hours ago, chasfh said:

And that's because the Cubs are terrible traders, practically the anti-Rays. Remember, we also got Candelario and Paredes for Alex Avila and Justin Wilson.

It sucks the Cubs also had to be cheap, otherwise we could have gotten the Quintana return for Verlander. 

[chasfh]

21 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

 

There is nothing negative about Lange's stats right now.  I just don't have enough information about him to project his future results with any accuracy.  most pitchers with low BABIP and 0 home run rate don't sustain that performance.  We already know Hader is one of the relatively rare pitchers who can keep his BABIP consistently low, so that is not a factor for him.  Because he can keep his hit rate so low, his high above average walk rate is also not a factor. 

I am not really concerned about Lange.  I don't really have a strong opinion on him.  He's a failed starter having 40+ innings of success as a reliever.  That is a positive, but not enough information to say that he'll be a top reliever in the future.  

I am not advocating trading Lange at all.  I just don't think he is such a sure thing that I am going to make him untouchable.  I don't know that he should be any less tradeable than Will Vest who has even better numbers this year.  I wouldn't trade anyone for prospects.  I am done with that, but if they can package some relivers for a hitter who can help the next couple of years, I'd be all for it.    

 

No one is saying Lange is a sure thing. I have already said on this very page, twice, that he could fall apart this year. I'll say it once again: he could fall apart this year.

That said, I will go on record with this: I think that if he is still performing at the same level on August 2 that he is now, he should be considered untouchable, and if I were forced to make a choice between trading one of either Alex Lange or Will Vest, then in that scenario, bye bye Will Vest.

That said, I would be shocked if even this incompetent front office traded either Lange or Vest for even younger prospects that, as buddha said, might become as good in several years as those two are now. Or, more probably, not.

[Tiger337]

25 minutes ago, chasfh said:

No one is saying Lange is a sure thing. I have already said on this very page, twice, that he could fall apart this year. I'll say it once again: he could fall apart this year.

That said, I will go on record with this: I think that if he is still performing at the same level on August 2 that he is now, he should be considered untouchable, and if I were forced to make a choice between trading one of either Alex Lange or Will Vest, then in that scenario, bye bye Will Vest.

That said, I would be shocked if even this incompetent front office traded either Lange or Vest for even younger prospects that, as buddha said, might become as good in several years as those two are now. Or, more probably, not.

I don't want them to trade for prospects.  I want players that can help in the next couple of years. Nobody is untouchable, not even Skubal.  The only thing is the Tigers have had very poor luck/skill in trades, so trading Skubal would be dangerous.  

I don't get why Lange is considered better than Vest since Vest has better numbers this year.  I didn't look at the statcast numbers because I don't believe they are predictive for pitchers.  

The only predictions I will make is that neither will be the next Hader.  

Edited June 6, 2022 by Tiger337

[chasfh]

3 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Are his percentile rankings good because he's having a good year or are they good because he is doing something different now?  These statcast stats are generally not predictive for pitchers. His walk rate is the same as last year His BABIP is .245 and he has allowed 0 homers.  Can he keep that up?  His k rate is a little higher which is good.  

You got me going with this one ...

I downloaded all the Statcast rankings for every pitchers between 2015 and 2022, and ran a correlation analysis on those pitchers who registered rankings of at least 1 in two consecutive seasons, to see what the correlation from year to year of these metrics are. I got those downloads from this page: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/percentile-rankings?type=pitcher&year=2022&team=, changing only the year in the URL. This took me maybe a little over an hour to do.

Here are the results:

I've put the columns for the last three seasons in italics because they all involved a less-than-162-game full season, and the average correlation I calculated to the right reflects only those full columns that contemplate full seasons.

As we could have already guessed, the outcome-based metrics like barrel percentage, hard hit percentage and exit velocity have among the lowest correlations. I would assume they are better-correlated to hitters. In that respect, I think of these in the same vein I think of BABIP.

Other pitcher-stat outcomes, like the x-stats (for expected pitcher stats based on hitters' quality of contact), are generally correlated more highly, but still no more than moderately so for pitchers, because there's always some luck involved that could muck it up.

The top three correlated metrics are obviously the best-correlated since they contemplate only the flight of the ball, before it gets to the bat.

The big three metrics here with outcomes pitchers can more or less control—strikeouts, walks, swing and miss—are really well-correlated from year to year.

Alex Lange has deep red numbers for both strikeout rate and chase rate, which I believe is pretty well-correlated to whiff rate (they don't have the exact same metrics on the cards versus the league tables, for who knows what reason). He has a sky-blue number for walk percentage, which is why I say: if he could change the color of that number to white, or even better, into the pink, he could be the same kind of process stud that the best closers in the game are.

It can be done: Jose Berrios went from a 4 BB_percent percentile in 2016 to averaging 64 across the following six seasons. Tyler Glasnow was a 2 in 2017 and a 12 in 2018; he then went to 78, 43, and 56. Lance Lynn had a 22 in 2017 and 15 in 2018 before he clocked rates of 73, 66, and 70 the following three seasons.

Those are rare instances, for sure, but it does demonstrate that the better pitchers can make that move from being a bases-on-balls sieve to tightening down that part of their game and going on to terrific success.

It's true: we cannot predict with any certainty how Alex Lange will end up. But if he's pitching like this for the next two months and we trade him, then speaking only for myself, I will be 100% convinced that we would never be able to trust this front office to assemble a roster that consistently wins year after year, at least without trashing our farm system to do it.