6/5 11:35 Tigers @ Yankees

[Tiger337]

11 minutes ago, chasfh said:

You got me going with this one ...

I downloaded all the Statcast rankings for every pitchers between 2015 and 2022, and ran a correlation analysis on those pitchers who registered rankings of at least 1 in two consecutive seasons, to see what the correlation from year to year of these metrics are. I got those downloads from this page: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/percentile-rankings?type=pitcher&year=2022&team=, changing only the year in the URL. This took me maybe a little over an hour to do.

Here are the results:

I've put the columns for the last three seasons in italics because they all involved a less-than-162-game full season, and the average correlation I calculated to the right reflects only those full columns that contemplate full seasons.

As we could have already guessed, the outcome-based metrics like barrel percentage, hard hit percentage and exit velocity have among the lowest correlations. I would assume they are better-correlated to hitters. In that respect, I think of these in the same vein I think of BABIP.

Other pitcher-stat outcomes, like the x-stats (for expected pitcher stats based on hitters' quality of contact), are generally correlated more highly, but still no more than moderately so for pitchers, because there's always some luck involved that could muck it up.

The top three correlated metrics are obviously the best-correlated since they contemplate only the flight of the ball, before it gets to the bat.

The big three metrics here with outcomes pitchers can more or less control—strikeouts, walks, swing and miss—are really well-correlated from year to year.

Alex Lange has deep red numbers for both strikeout rate and chase rate, which I believe is pretty well-correlated to whiff rate (they don't have the exact same metrics on the cards versus the league tables, for who knows what reason). He has a sky-blue number for walk percentage, which is why I say: if he could change the color of that number to white, or even better, into the pink, he could be the same kind of process stud that the best closers in the game are.

It can be done: Jose Berrios went from a 4 BB_percent percentile in 2016 to averaging 64 across the following six seasons. Tyler Glasnow was a 2 in 2017 and a 12 in 2018; he then went to 78, 43, and 56. Lance Lynn had a 22 in 2017 and 15 in 2018 before he clocked rates of 73, 66, and 70 the following three seasons.

Those are rare instances, for sure, but it does demonstrate that the better pitchers can make that move from being a bases-on-balls sieve to tightening down that part of their game and going on to terrific success.

It's true: we cannot predict with any certainty how Alex Lange will end up. But if he's pitching like this for the next two months and we trade him, then speaking only for myself, I will be 100% convinced that we would never be able to trust this front office to assemble a roster that consistently wins year after year, at least without trashing our farm system to do it.

Thanks for doing that.  Yes, the stats are correlated with themselves, but I have read in a few places that they are not highly correlated with future performance stats like ERA.  I have not done the analysis myself.  

Edited June 6, 2022 by Tiger337

[Sports_Freak]

The Tigers strength this year is their bullpen. So by all means, let's talk about trading the best pieces. We'll need to demote a few of the arms anyway when we start getting arms back from the injured list.

[mtutiger]

19 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I'm thinking of the Willy Adames trade last year where the Rays traded Adames for two relatively unknown pitchers.  it turned out to be a good trade for both teams as Adames has been quite good since the trade, Rasmussen has surprisingly turned into a good starter at least for now and Feyereisen has been a good reliever.  

Setting side opinions on whether a trade should happen, are there any Willy Adames type players that teams could be looking to move? Who maybe could benefit this ballclub?

I know that Miguel Andujar requested a trade out of New York since he's kinda blocked and has spent more time in Scranton than the Bronx over the past couple of years, but he's kinda the only one that publicly we've heard much about.

Edited June 7, 2022 by mtutiger