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The 2022 Midterm Elections


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28 minutes ago, buddha said:

lol.  stock prices would not go up because people would look for other places to invest their money to not pay your new taxes.  come on.

are you kidding? The market is overpriced now because half the fortune 500 would rather buy their own stock back than invest because there is no expanding market for their goods as the middle class collapses, and the 1%, who have more money than they can find investments for now, have produced a market driven more by the greater fools theory than fundamental values. Get real.

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11 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

are you kidding? The market is overpriced now because half the fortune 500 would rather buy their own stock back than invest because there is no expanding market for their goods as the middle class collapses, and the 1%, who have more money than they can find investments for now, have produced a market driven more by the greater fools theory than fundamental values. Get real.

yes, the market is overvalued now!  and if you start taxing it at the higher rates youre talking about investment will move elsewhere.

if you want to stop corporations from borrowing money at 0% interest and then using it to increase their stock price, you should stop loaning out money at 0% interest.

and if you think corporations will suddenly have an epiphany that "gosh, this form of investment that did nothing but make us oodles of money now makes us less, gosh i guess we'll make long term capital investments in our companies that may or may not pay off decades from now instead" you havent spent a lot of time in a modern corporation.

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50 minutes ago, buddha said:

 

and if you think corporations will suddenly have an epiphany that "gosh, this form of investment that did nothing but make us oodles of money now makes us less, gosh i guess we'll make long term capital investments in our companies that may or may not pay off decades from now instead" you havent spent a lot of time in a modern corporation.

what the corps do is not the point - the point is that the value of the modern market is divorced from any classic fundamental analysis, so arguments about how tax policy affect it are non-sequitur.

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 hour ago, buddha said:

tmac up 1 in the last poll.

in a state biden won by 10.  not great news for democrats overall.

It’s gonna be a nail biter. While Va has been fairly solid blue in voting, outside of areas like DC, Richmond and parts of Hampton Roads it’s still the old south. I have a feeling there is some voting fatigue with three straight Democratic Governors. Along with the fact that they can’t run for re-election. Also going from a hard fought Presidential/Congressional race directly into this one.

Louden County is the key. Still a lot of crazies there

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2 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

It’s gonna be a nail biter. While Va has been fairly solid blue in voting, outside of areas like DC, Richmond and parts of Hampton Roads it’s still the old south. I have a feeling there is some voting fatigue with three straight Democratic Governors. Along with the fact that they can’t run for re-election. Also going from a hard fought Presidential/Congressional race directly into this one.

Louden County is the key. Still a lot of crazies there

i read some stuff about pennsylvania the other day about how republicans have been very successful in getting voters signed up.  theyre quite motivated.  same may be true in virginia, but i dont know.

these are off year elections next year, the party out of power usually does well.  the democrats have time.  they will have advantages in a lot of states due to their aggressive gerrymandering, and inflation may be coming down by then.

if the stories on the economy are all about inflation still, they'll be in big trouble.

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5 minutes ago, oblong said:

I thought Virginia now is about the schools and crt and all that. 

probably, but the impression people have about the economy matters too.

i dont know if the democrats passing that bill would have done a lot to change the economy in a short time (and it might not actually help the problem areas), but we'll never know.

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5 hours ago, buddha said:

tmac up 1 in the last poll.

in a state biden won by 10.  not great news for democrats overall.

I thought it was interesting that the Dem LG / AG are running ahead of their R Challengers and ahead of TMac by 3-5 points in that WaPo poll. Leads me to believe that at least some of his struggles are self-inflicted.

Environment is certainly part of it (economy isn't doing well, Biden's approvals are down, inflation, etc.), but TMac has really run a shitty campaign. I think, as a Dem, you have to play the Trump card, but I think he's done way too much of it at the expense of the fact that he actually has a relatively good record to run on as a former Governor. 

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1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

Virginia is the California of the east coast so I expect a 30 point win. 

You're trying to be funny, but I've been thinking a lot about California leading up to this election and how, setting aside the significant polling miss, some of the CW leading in regarding the suburban vote just completely fell apart when the votes were cast. Orange County being the classic example: as far as I can tell, all the experts (such as Wasserman) seemed to think that YES would win the OC, when it ended up losing 52-48. 

Loudon County has been getting a similar treatment to the OC in the press leading up to this election, and again, the CW seems to point to a narrower win for TMac (ie. high single digits, low teens), which would be enough to swing an election to Youngkin. 

I've seen enough elections at this point in my life to know not to bank on polling errors. The polls call for a close race, Youngkin has the momentum and I'd probably pick him to win based on the public polling I've seen as of today. But if TMac does end up winning and ends up winning in Loudon and other suburban counties with numbers closer to what Biden pulled in 2020, I'm going to have a lot of questions about how pollsters are gauging the electorate Post-Trump. Because it'll essentially be California 2.0, and basically I haven't seen much of a reckoning for the polling error in that race.

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5 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

If Democrats lose Virginia, they'll protest, tear down some statues, and maybe wear rainbow colored hats instead of pink hats. Democrats would rather have a purity contest with Joe Manchin instead of taking what he will give them and focus on flipping other states to make him irrelevant. 

McAuiliffe has already played the Trump card, pointed to Stacey Abrams as having her election stolen from her and indicating that might happen to him too.  Even the 'adults in the room' are idiots now.

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5 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

McAuiliffe has already played the Trump card, pointed to Stacey Abrams as having her election stolen from her and indicating that might happen to him too.  Even the 'adults in the room' are idiots now.

The latest stunt with the VADem staffers dressed up with tiki torches today was a nice touch.

You couldn't possibly telegraph "I think I'm gonna lose" in a more transparent way.

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