The 2022 Midterm Elections

[romad1]

53 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

If you have to recruit a candidate on Twitter you've probably lost the race...

 

The Fairfax GOP was once a gentle group of fine folk  Then the loonies took over and...well, you know

[oblong]

41 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I feel this is a trap. 

if they brought it to a vote, 47 GOP Senators would then vote against it.

 

[ewsieg]

4 hours ago, oblong said:

He's basically a televangelist/infomercial huckster that saw an opening in the political world through grievances.  Scare people. 

That's been the strategy from both sides for along time, Trump just "Trumped" it to another level.  I don't know anyone personally that is a supporter of Trump AND thinks he's a good person.  I know many avid supporters that don't think he's a good man on a personal level and would probably equate him to Rodney Dangerfield in Back to School in terms of his business background; crooked, but crooked because that's just the way things are done in that world of the 1%'ers that screw the rest of us.  

He's convinced many that he's just fed up with the system that he acknowledges he was a part of and that's enough of a redeeming quality to back him for some reason.  Add the 'the other side wants to radically destroy everything you love' after he's got them hooked and now you have a cult.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

I feel this is a trap. 

I think the only idea here is not to actually pass such a bill, but to reset the abortion argument with Republican voters. By settling on 15 weeks, he’s trying to make Republicans look reasonable to the moderate right who can’t bring themselves to vote for MAGA and won’t vote for Democrats. It’s strictly a gambit to goose turnout. If Republicans could win on this message they will ignore the 15-week thing and outright ban it everywhere they can anyway—the idea isn’t to negotiate the end product, but to win the election, full stop.

If Republican candidates can all get on board and stay on this message, I could see it working.

 

[ewsieg]

13 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I think the only idea here is not to actually pass such a bill, but to reset the abortion argument with Republican voters. By settling on 15 weeks, he’s trying to make Republicans look reasonable to the moderate right who can’t bring themselves to vote for MAGA and won’t vote for Democrats. It’s strictly a gambit to goose turnout. If Republicans could win on this message they will ignore the 15-week thing and outright ban it everywhere they can anyway—the idea isn’t to negotiate the end product, but to win the election, full stop.

If Republican candidates can all get on board and stay on this message, I could see it working.

 

but, but....states rights.

[mtutiger]

34 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I think the only idea here is not to actually pass such a bill, but to reset the abortion argument with Republican voters. By settling on 15 weeks, he’s trying to make Republicans look reasonable to the moderate right who can’t bring themselves to vote for MAGA and won’t vote for Democrats. It’s strictly a gambit to goose turnout. If Republicans could win on this message they will ignore the 15-week thing and outright ban it everywhere they can anyway—the idea isn’t to negotiate the end product, but to win the election, full stop.

That's definitely the plan. I just doubt it works...

[chasfh]

Just now, mtutiger said:

That's definitely the plan. I just doubt it works...

Hope not, but I also think it might depend on how consistent and persistent they make the messaging. If Republicans can completely replace the image of 10-year-old girls needing to go out of state for abortion with the vision of Democrats snapping the necks of live babies in order to abort them, while promoting a reasonable abortion cutoff that is more lenient than even some European socialist paradises, they could potentially change the entire discussion from “Democrats=Pro-choice/Republicans=forced births” to “Republicans=reasonable abortion policy/Democrats=abort already-birthed babies”.

It might be a tall order to expect Republicans to all successfully message in the exact same disciplined way, but Democrats should probably already be figuring out to defend against this possibility and keep reminding people what Republicans’ actual abortion policy is, i.e., “abortion is murder, period.” Democrats simply cannot afford to look the other way and let Republicans take control of abortion messaging. 

[oblong]

Seeing what the states have done since Roe fell is all the people need to know their true intention. Nobody’s believing this is legit. It’s a starting point.  It’s not moderate. 

[mtutiger]

9 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Hope not, but I also think it might depend on how consistent and persistent they make the messaging. If Republicans can completely replace the image of 10-year-old girls needing to go out of state for abortion with the vision of Democrats snapping the necks of live babies in order to abort them, while promoting a reasonable abortion cutoff that is more lenient than even some European socialist paradises, they could potentially change the entire discussion from “Democrats=Pro-choice/Republicans=forced births” to “Republicans=reasonable abortion policy/Democrats=abort already-birthed babies”.

And that isn't gonna work, imo, when you have large states run by Republicans who currently have draconian bans in place... and many other states with Republicans looking to enact draconian policies.

Which Graham's law, btw, will not address... effectively enacting a national ban at 15 weeks while simultaneously allowing some states to effectively ban the practice in even extreme situations 

[CMRivdogs]

It's the GQP.....Watch for the ole Bait and Switch

[CMRivdogs]

Just now, CMRivdogs said:

It's the GQP.....Watch for the ole Bait and Switch

 

[mtutiger]

7 minutes ago, oblong said:

Seeing what the states have done since Roe fell is all the people need to know their true intention. Nobody’s believing this is legit. It’s a starting point.  It’s not moderate. 

And it really doesn't change what these local Rs say in a lot of these states. And voters see that 

If you're in the Philly suburbs and see Doug "Slim Pickens at the end of Dr. Strangelove" Mastriano's position on abortion and Dobbs, I'm not sure how Lindsey Graham's maneuver here really changes the calculus when considering who to vote for. If anything, it could backfire 

[mtutiger]

3 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

 

OTOH, if they were to actually call it to the floor and a bunch of Senators opposed, wouldn't that be kinda demoralizing to the GOP base?

I doubt it gets a vote in this Congress. But it's not exactly an easy choice for some of these Congressman and Senators.

[chasfh]

45 minutes ago, oblong said:

Seeing what the states have done since Roe fell is all the people need to know their true intention. Nobody’s believing this is legit. It’s a starting point.  It’s not moderate. 

Voters forget if they’re not constantly reminded. 

[mtutiger]

Maybe it's because of where I live (and the fact that the pols here have enacted some of the most draconian abortion regs in America) but, at least here anyway, the party is pretty closely associated with the most extreme positions on the issue. And many elected Rs, especially when you go below the level of the US Senate, aren't shy to remind you of their positions.

Just because it looks like 4D Chess doesn't mean it's gonna work. 

[oblong]

What I think they misunderstand is the acceptance that abortion bans, any of them, go into the issue of privacy rights overall. It won’t matter what carrot they offer.  The GOP is going to be guilty of groupthink. They are in the distinct minority.  The question obviously is how that translates into votes and non votes.  But I think this being presented as a “hey elect us and you have nothing to worry about” isn’t going to work.  It’s not abortion. It’s privacy. 

[oblong]

shes a Republican. 

[smr-nj]

What a condescending piece of crap Shane Massey is. 
I appreciate Sen.Sean’s take down of this buffoon.

[pfife]

seems like the best option is to just ignore lindsey grams bill.    I bill that never gets a vote in the senate is about the most common thing ever

[chasfh]

15 hours ago, oblong said:

Seeing what the states have done since Roe fell is all the people need to know their true intention. Nobody’s believing this is legit. It’s a starting point.  It’s not moderate. 

Voters have short memories, especially voters who want to believe. They need to keep being reminded of this, because those voters will forget.

[mtutiger]

30 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Voters have short memories, especially voters who want to believe. They need to keep being reminded of this, because those voters will forget.

Once again, Republican politicians seem to have little problem reminding voters where they really stand on abortion (Exhibit A below)

 

[mtutiger]

14 hours ago, oblong said:

What I think they misunderstand is the acceptance that abortion bans, any of them, go into the issue of privacy rights overall. It won’t matter what carrot they offer.  The GOP is going to be guilty of groupthink. They are in the distinct minority.  The question obviously is how that translates into votes and non votes.  But I think this being presented as a “hey elect us and you have nothing to worry about” isn’t going to work.  It’s not abortion. It’s privacy. 

And it's not going to work when the party is fractured on messaging as well. 

The wants and desires of some GOP members of the US Senate are a lot different than those of Republican politicians in the House or at the state/local level. All of whom seem to have little problem exposing themselves on this issue.

Edited September 14, 2022 by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

 

[chasfh]

3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Once again, Republican politicians seem to have little problem reminding voters where they really stand on abortion (Exhibit A below)

 

Once again, I think it might depend on how consistent and persistent they make the messaging. They’re obviously off to a rocky start. But then, Republicans also got off to a rocky start on the whole 2020 election debacle, believing it was their golden opportunity to finally throw Trump under the bus, and they’ve been largely whipped into line. So I’m not spiking the football on this quite yet.

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, chasfh said:

Once again, I think it might depend on how consistent and persistent they make the messaging. They’re obviously off to a rocky start. But then, Republicans also got off to a rocky start on the whole 2020 election debacle, believing it was their golden opportunity to finally throw Trump under the bus, and they’ve been largely whipped into line. So I’m not spiking the football on this quite yet.

The party is really fractured on this issue... you have politicians like the ones in my state, but also in states like Arizona and Wisconsin arguing in favor of bans from the 19th Century. As we speak. The conditions aren't there for consistent messaging.

Proposing a 15 week ban in the US Senate (which polls underwater as it is) while GOP politicians at the state level continue to push the extremes, including in competitive states this cycle, color me skeptical that is 4d Chess