The 2022 Midterm Elections

[Tigeraholic1]

Weird while watching world series last night my local Fox station ran a Fetterman ad. Being in Indiana was not expecting to see that.

[chasfh]

15 hours ago, Screwball said:

Disclosure; I know nothing of these people. The book Mein Kampf should be required reading before graduating from high school. There is much to be learned from that book.
 

 

Then vote Trump! That’s the only book he’s ever read! 😉

[chasfh]

15 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Herschel Walker wouldn't know the "family unit" if it fell out of the sky and hit him in the head

A lot of things fell out of the sky and hit him in the head. They are called defensive linemen.

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

Weird while watching world series last night my local Fox station ran a Fetterman ad. Being in Indiana was not expecting to see that.

Pretty sure that ran nationally. My buddy in Boston pinged me to ask whether we’d seen it as well.

They apparently have a bunch of money left to spend, plus it might possibly help Democrats in local races. The thinking might be, If they can on a national basis saddle Oz with being the goof that’s representative of the Republican Party, that might be worth a few votes on the margins for Democrats in other states. 

[romad1]

23 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Then vote Trump! That’s the only book he’s ever read! 😉

Its not wrong to study the holocaust.  Mein Kampf is definitely a roadmap to what he planned.  i think there is an element who read this and Turner Diaries and see it like so many screwed up people watch Fight Club and start to root for Tyler Durden and don't see how insane that worldview is. 

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Pretty sure that ran nationally. My buddy in Boston pinged me to ask whether we’d seen it as well.

They apparently have a bunch of money left to spend, plus it might possibly help Democrats in local races. The thinking might be, If they can on a national basis saddle Oz with being the goof that’s representative of the Republican Party, that might be worth a few votes on the margins for Democrats in other states. 

A lot of it comes down to geography as well.... the PA Senate race is gonna come down to Southeast Pennsylvania (ie. Philly, Lehigh Valley, etc.), and the market share that game drew last night was likely massive in those markets.

Money well spent.

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, romad1 said:

Its not wrong to study the holocaust.  Mein Kampf is definitely a roadmap to what he planned.  i think there is an element who read this and Turner Diaries and see it like so many screwed up people watch Fight Club and start to root for Tyler Durden and don't see how insane that worldview is. 

There's a difference between reading Mein Kampf to educate oneself on the Hitler and, to paraphrase Tater, to read it and relate to it on a personal level.

I have no way of knowing whether Mastriano relates to it on a personal level, but it is undeniable that he has engaged in some light anti-semitism during his campaign.

[romad1]

2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

There's a difference between reading Mein Kampf to educate oneself on the Hitler and, to paraphrase Tater, to read it and relate to it on a personal level.

I have no way of knowing whether Mastriano relates to it on a personal level, but it is undeniable that he has engaged in some light anti-semitism during his campaign.

you mean that in the George Bluth sense? 

[mtutiger]

This post is indicative of it, but RCP has been interesting this cycle, where it goes in and applied an adjustment factor based on the error in previous cycles. (not to mention how arbitrary they are in terms of what polls they will include in their average, but that's another subject)

I think it's fair for outlets covering the race to try different things to try to come to the most accurate result, but then again, it's another example of how Constitutional it is within the pundit/polling world to believe that every election going forward will underestimate GOP vote share. 

It's certainly a defensible prior going into 2022 believing that polling will again underestimate GOP vote share, but it seems risky to me to lean in this hard on that prior.

Edited November 4, 2022 by mtutiger

[Motown Bombers]

RCP is just ignoring favorable polls for Democrats, despite that, Whitmer is literally not trailing in a single poll and they still have Dixon winning. They say they are accounting then for GOP being underestimated, and yet they don't account for Democrats winning the last 6 statewide elections.

 

Edited November 4, 2022 by Motown Bombers

[mtutiger]

31 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

RCP is just ignoring favorable polls for Democrats, despite that, Whitmer is literally not trailing in a single poll and they still have Dixon winning. They say they are accounting then for GOP being underestimated, and yet they don't account for Democrats winning the last 6 statewide elections.

 

That definitely doesn't make any sense.

Whatever the merits of the model, but if you have a model that is designed to deduct margin from the D candidate based on past polling error and at the end it says Whitmer is ahead, it's kinda hackish to project it as a GOP Pickup.

Edited November 4, 2022 by mtutiger

[Motown Bombers]

Something is totally up with all these GOP funded polls flooding the landscape, RCP picking them up and not nonpartisan or liberal polls and creating an average that skews to the Republicans. 

[Motown Bombers]

What's truly amazing is Nevada. Their polling average has Sisolak losing, they use the same adjustment of the polling averages being off which in Nevada were off in Democrats favor. That makes Sisolak leading, and they still have it as a GOP gain. 

[Motown Bombers]

Three senate races show Dems leads by their formula and they have them losing every one.

[Motown Bombers]

 

[romad1]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

That definitely doesn't make any sense.

Whatever the merits of the model, but if you have a model that is designed to deduct margin from the D candidate based on past polling error and at the end it says Whitmer is ahead, it's kinda hackish to project it as a GOP Pickup.

This sort of thing will lead to bloodshed.  Somebody wants there to be bloodshed. 

[ewsieg]

2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

That definitely doesn't make any sense.

Whatever the merits of the model, but if you have a model that is designed to deduct margin from the D candidate based on past polling error and at the end it says Whitmer is ahead, it's kinda hackish to project it as a GOP Pickup.

Does the model take trends into account as well?  If so, that could account for it.  I'm surprised just how much the GOP has been trending up these last few weeks.  I expected it to tighten a bit, but didn't think this much.

[Motown Bombers]

7 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Does the model take trends into account as well?  If so, that could account for it.  I'm surprised just how much the GOP has been trending up these last few weeks.  I expected it to tighten a bit, but didn't think this much.

The GOP is trending up because we have been saturated with GOP polls in October. They adjusted Whitmer's lead based on Democratic underperformance in 2018. Even with that adjustment, using GOP funded polls and not nonpartisan polls, she still led but they say GOP pickup anyways. I'm not even sure what trend is favorable for Dixon. The last six statewide elections have been won by Democrats. 

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, mtutiger said:

A lot of it comes down to geography as well.... the PA Senate race is gonna come down to Southeast Pennsylvania (ie. Philly, Lehigh Valley, etc.), and the market share that game drew last night was likely massive in those markets.

Money well spent.

Do you mean money well-spent nationally?

[mtutiger]

11 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Do you mean money well-spent nationally?

Just for PA. The game drew a 25.9 rating/50 share in the Philly Media Market... even though the ad spot was nationally broadcast, I do think it was more aimed at his constituents watching the game up in Philly

[chasfh]

Just now, mtutiger said:

Just for PA. The game drew a 25.9 rating/50 share in the Philly Media Market... even though the ad spot was nationally broadcast, I do think it was more aimed at his constituents watching the game up in Philly

If he didn't intend to speak to people outside of Philly, then I don't know why he wouldn't have done a simple spot buy in just Philly?

[mtutiger]

24 minutes ago, chasfh said:

If he didn't intend to speak to people outside of Philly, then I don't know why he wouldn't have done a simple spot buy in just Philly?

I dont know how easy it is to rely solely on buying up local ad spots during a World Series game. I've watched enough of them to know there aren't many of them between Innings 1-9, and given this is Pennsylvania (ie. Ground Zero for the Midterms), scarcity is probably an issue.

Buying nationally costs more, but puts your spot in the middle of a game when people are watching. Also probably allows him to hit every market in the state versus buying local ad time in individual markets. He's not hurting for campaign cash, good move imo

Edited November 4, 2022 by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

Interesting phrasing of the Q

[chasfh]

20 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I dont know how easy it is to rely solely on buying up local ad spots during a World Series game. I've watched enough of them to know there aren't many of them between Innings 1-9, and given this is Pennsylvania (ie. Ground Zero for the Midterms), scarcity is probably an issue.

Buying nationally costs more, but puts your spot in the middle of a game when people are watching. Also probably allows him to hit every market in the state versus buying local ad time in individual markets. He's not hurting for campaign cash, good move imo

Local stations definitely get time to sell time during national sports events, even the Super Bowl, including during the game itself. That's the whole point of getting affilaites excited to carry top national event—so they can sell local spots at the highest rates they will see all year. Fetterman could easily buy local time in Philly as well as the several other DMAs in the state, and he can also bump another advertiser by paying more money for the spot. So local availability is a non-issue for a motivated advertiser.

Covering the whole state would be a wise move—every Fox station in the state could be bought locally, whether individually or maybe collectively through mutual rep firms. Only 4% of the country lives in Pennsylvania, though. If his true target audience made up at last third or more of the country, at that point it would make more sense to buy national versus paying premiums to buy spots by individual station. There's really no way that it makes better sense fiscally to buy nationally to hit 4% of the audience while wasting the other 96%.

That's why I'm thinking the spot was meant for a national audience, and basically because of Dr Oz, who is a national figure. I think the spot was not only for Fetterman in Pennsylvania, but secondarily for Democrats around the country, since Oz has been such an effective foil nationally. I think they're banking on a Fetterman spot motivating D voters across the country to the polls. I wouldn't doubt if the funding for the spot came 100% from the DNC versus Fetterman's own war chest.

[gehringer_2]

58 minutes ago, chasfh said:

That's why I'm thinking the spot was meant for a national audience

Interesting, When I saw it I just assumed it was was supposed to be in the feed to the Philly region and my streaming/cable operator hadn't managed to overlay their local spot in a planned slot, but if everyone got it that would kill that theory.