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The 2022 Midterm Elections


chasfh

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34 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:
1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

I'm gonna take a wild shot that Mark Kelly knows how to fire a gun...........he just doesn't need to show that to everyone.  

Plus Mark Kelly was actually in combat.  His weapon of choice was his A6 Intruder.   Meanwhile, Blake Masters is a creature of sicko Peter Thiel

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6 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

One thing I've been thinking about, if polls were off on Democratic support, doesn't stand to reason they are off on Biden's approval rating? I just don't think he is as unpopular as people make him out to be. We are seeing the flag waving mouth breathers are loud but a minority that get outsized attention. A lot of polls also list soft support such as somewhat approve as disapproving. I don't know that he has the kind of hatred against as Trump does.

I don't know that polls are off on Biden's approval, I just think that the political media had a hard time understanding that those who "somewhat disapprove" may not have been automatic GOP votes in the Midterm.

That's a big part of the story as I see it... Softer disapprovers of POTUS, made up a lot by younger voters and suburban voters one presumes, still showed and voted for Dem candidates in higher numbers than the conventional wisdom suggested going into the election

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5 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

I had a fever dream last night that a moderate Republican threw his/ her hat into the Speaker ring (of fire) with the stated position that they are rejecting the Freedom Caucus and looking for moderate Dems to align with...

And I didn't even partake of any of MCS's edibles last night either...

Honestly, I believe this is more plausible than is considered at the moment.

A lot of attention is focused on the leverage the Freedom Caucus has, but these new NY Reps, the ones who make up a disproportionate amount of the GOP's House gains, all come from Biden districts and probably want to be reelected in future elections. 

If the GOP were smart, they would want to keep these members happy, well before keeping MTG happy. 

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Why would a more moderate Republican stick their neck out and do something like that? They saw what happened to Liz Cheney and Peter Meijer. It is almost certain to be an automatic loss in the primary election to a MAGA, Trump-backed candidate. While Trump's power in a general election has evaporated, this election cycle still proved he has primary power. 

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21 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I rarely donate to campaigns, but I'm dropping $50 on Raphael.   (Even though I am a heathen atheist and he's a Reverend)

Does the money actually go into his campaign? I've heard before that some donations go into a general fund... I've thought about it, even though I am reluctant to donate to a candidate in a state I don't live in.

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5 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Why would a more moderate Republican stick their neck out and do something like that? They saw what happened to Liz Cheney and Peter Meijer. It is almost certain to be an automatic loss in the primary election to a MAGA, Trump-backed candidate. While Trump's power in a general election has evaporated, this election cycle still proved he has primary power. 

It would have to be one that has sufficient charisma to overcome it, or as MTU suggested, one that lives in a district that is purple, rather than red.

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9 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Why would a more moderate Republican stick their neck out and do something like that? They saw what happened to Liz Cheney and Peter Meijer. It is almost certain to be an automatic loss in the primary election to a MAGA, Trump-backed candidate. While Trump's power in a general election has evaporated, this election cycle still proved he has primary power. 

If you are the guy like Mike Lawler, who beat Sean Patrick Maloney in his Biden district, your path to staying in office is more contingent on staying in the center. The risk of losing in a general is greater than the risk of losing in a primary

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5 minutes ago, LaceyLou said:

It would have to be one that has sufficient charisma to overcome it, or as MTU suggested, one that lives in a district that is purple, rather than red.

I don't think being in a purple district helps. Peter Meijer was in a purple district and he lost to Trump-backed John Gibbs. Pennsylvania is a purple state as is Arizona now and we ended up with Doug Mastriano, Dr. Oz, and Kari Lake respectively as Trump-backed nominees in those states.

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1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

If you are the guy like Mike Lawler, who beat Sean Patrick Maloney in his Biden district, your path to staying in office is more contingent on staying in the center. The risk of losing in a general is greater than the risk of losing in a primary

If Mike Lawler says something bad about Trump or about someone Trump wants as Speaker or in leadership, Trump will just endorsed against Lawler and one of his goons will beat him in the primary. Peter Meijer faced that same challenge and lost to John Gibbs, a Trump-backed goon, in his primary. No reason to think Lawler is anymore special or different than Meijer.

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2 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

If Mike Lawler says something bad about Trump or about someone Trump wants as Speaker or in leadership, Trump will just endorsed against Lawler and one of his goons will beat him in the primary. Peter Meijer faced that same challenge and lost to John Gibbs, a Trump-backed goon, in his primary. No reason to think Lawler is anymore special or different than Meijer.

But if Lawler abets that wing of the party, the chances he loses anyway in 2024 rise significantly.

He's better off charting his own course and acting to the sensibilities of his district rather than worrying about a hypothetical primary challenge.

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