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The 2022 Midterm Elections


chasfh

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3 minutes ago, oblong said:

Without thinking about it too much… does a razor thin majority help or hurt the party in power?  I’m not so sure a 220 GOP house is a bad thing for the Dems. If you had to pick a chamber you go with the senate for the judges.  

It sucks to not control the agenda and the committees though

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7 minutes ago, oblong said:

Without thinking about it too much… does a razor thin majority help or hurt the party in power?  I’m not so sure a 220 GOP house is a bad thing for the Dems. If you had to pick a chamber you go with the senate for the judges.  

I would think it depends on whether they find leadership that can manage it - and I doubt a liar like McCarthy is a guy they can all have confidence in. If they hold it together, it's all downside for the Dems. If they devolve into a clownshow, not so much!

 

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51 minutes ago, pfife said:

It sucks to not control the agenda and the committees though

I look at it that congress has a low approval rating no matter who is in charge. We are approaching a potus election that starts now.  Let the oppo take the heat. Like Tony letting Uncle Junior be the boss in season 2. A lightning Rod. Things suck and don’t get done?  Blame congress. Starts in the house and they are busy with Hunter Biden and Fauci fighting battles from 3-4 years ago.  

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10 minutes ago, oblong said:

I look at it that congress has a low approval rating no matter who is in charge. We are approaching a potus election that starts now.  Let the oppo take the heat. Like Tony letting Uncle Junior be the boss in season 2. A lightning Rod. Things suck and don’t get done?  Blame congress. Starts in the house and they are busy with Hunter Biden and Fauci fighting battles from 3-4 years ago.  

this could be spot on.

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38 minutes ago, oblong said:

I look at it that congress has a low approval rating no matter who is in charge. We are approaching a potus election that starts now.  Let the oppo take the heat. Like Tony letting Uncle Junior be the boss in season 2. A lightning Rod. Things suck and don’t get done?  Blame congress. Starts in the house and they are busy with Hunter Biden and Fauci fighting battles from 3-4 years ago.  

It also takes away attack from progressives who will say Democrats had control of the house and senate and didn't pass X.

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Something is up when I tried to reply to Gehringer's post about closest house ever.

I wanted to turn that on its head and point out that due to deaths and resignations, the house margin has fluctuated by as many as 8 seats over the course of a session in recent years.

1931 was a close margin that actually flipped over their lengthy recess (they were only in session from December to March). The speaker does not change when that happens, however it did in 1931 because the speaker was among those deaths.

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12 hours ago, oblong said:

Without thinking about it too much… does a razor thin majority help or hurt the party in power?  I’m not so sure a 220 GOP house is a bad thing for the Dems. If you had to pick a chamber you go with the senate for the judges.  

Probably a mixed bag. As Fife suggests, you lose control of the committees and that will change things like oversight (ie. expect a lot of teeth gnashing about Hunter Biden in the 118th Congress), but OTOH, legislatively the margin is likely going to be close enough where Congress would be capable to get some broadly popular items done on a bipartisan basis. Particularly through the use of discharge petitions. I think it takes away a lot of the leverage that the GOP has to weaponize things like the debt limit as well... 

Just on pure politics, it does make McCarthy's life hell. As much as "Dems in disarray" and divisions within the Democratic Party are a frequent meme and talking point, there is a pretty wide gulf between the two ends of the spectrum in the GOP as well. Having to manage the MTG, Gosar, Massie, etc. class while managing the more moderate wing, particular some of the incoming freshman from New York, isn't going to be easy.

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2 hours ago, Edman85 said:

More from the post that went into the abyss.

The Speaker is selected at the beginning of the term, and if majority flips, the committee leadership flips as well. The Speaker does not, and the speaker's committee choices are limited to joint committees and select committees.

Possibley more on this. There is also reference in the House Practice manual ( House Practice manual Ch 34 ) to a source called "Deschler's Precedents" ( link ) which states the Speaker can be removed by the will of House.

Quote

    The term of office of the Speaker begins upon his election and 
taking of his oath of office. The term ends upon the expiration of the 
Congress to which the Member was elected Speaker, unless the Speaker 
has resigned, died, or been removed by the House.(3)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 3. ``A Speaker may be removed at the will of the House. . . .'' 
        Jefferson's Manual, House Rules and Manual Sec. 315 (1973). 
        Parliamentarian's Note: The House has never removed a Speaker, 
        however.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

In the final analysis, the Consitution gives each House the right make its rules, and ultimately any rule can be changed by majority vote. Of course there are a lot things where precedent is extremely powerful and has vanishingly little probability of being overturned, but I would never say 'never' on an absolute basis.

Edited by gehringer_2
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44 minutes ago, chasfh said:

That would be the best thing that could arise out of a Republican House majority, although I don’t think there are enough Mitts in the House to make this happen.

how many do they need? 2 or 3 GOP people who are retiring in 2 years? and Pelosi commands all Dems to support her. won't happen but there is a very small path; would totally enrage Trump and MAGA so yes I'm all in

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25 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

how many do they need? 2 or 3 GOP people who are retiring in 2 years? and Pelosi commands all Dems to support her. won't happen but there is a very small path; would totally enrage Trump and MAGA so yes I'm all in

Does Pelosi command AOC and Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib? I have my doubts about that.

In any event, wouldn't they would need more than two or three Mitts to drive the selection of Liz Cheney as Speaker of the House? Seems to me there are more Congressional reps who are temperamentally more like MTG than Adam Kinzinger.

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39 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Does Pelosi command AOC and Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib? I have my doubts about that.

In any event, wouldn't they would need more than two or three Mitts to drive the selection of Liz Cheney as Speaker of the House? Seems to me there are more Congressional reps who are temperamentally more like MTG than Adam Kinzinger.

She does not. The squad can and will screw it up. It's really why I'm leaning now towards hoping the Republicans win the house with a 2 or 3 seat majority to watch that clown show.

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49 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Does Pelosi command AOC and Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib? I have my doubts about that.

In any event, wouldn't they would need more than two or three Mitts to drive the selection of Liz Cheney as Speaker of the House? Seems to me there are more Congressional reps who are temperamentally more like MTG than Adam Kinzinger.

I think the big question goes back to the question Edman and I posted about, which is: would or could the House elect a new speaker if the speaker's party loses the majority during the session? It the membership is commitment to a rule where they won't make a change, that's a very different dynamic than if the out party believes it will just replace whoever is there if they win a special election somewhere. In the first case it's relatively easy to imagine a block of as many as 300 deciding a non-partisan speaker might be best for all concerned, in the latter case, I wouldn't see it happening.

Edited by gehringer_2
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