The 2022 Midterm Elections

[Motown Bombers]

 

[mtutiger]

Just now, Motown Bombers said:

 

If its 71-18 in California and a similar amendment (written inversely) in Kansas was 59-41, then how many states would actually pass a similar amendment? 5, 6?

[Motown Bombers]

 

[gehringer_2]

50 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

If its 71-18 in California and a similar amendment (written inversely) in Kansas was 59-41, then how many states would actually pass a similar amendment? 5, 6?

IDK. Maybe MS, AL, WY, ID, SC? The Plains states like KS, MO, IA have been GOP for a while but I don't think they are as religiously monochrome as a few in the deep south or just as radical as some of the mountain west.

Edited August 25, 2022 by gehringer_2

[oblong]

12 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

IDK. Maybe MS, AL, WY, ID, SC? The Plains states like KS, MO, IA have been GOP for a while but I don't think they are as religiously monochrome as a few in the deep south or just as radical as some of the mountain west.

Ok now I get it.  I wasn’t sure if his question. I thought me meant how many would pass a CA amendment.  I agree with you. Kentucky?

[Motown Bombers]

19 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

IDK. Maybe MS, AL, WY, ID, SC? The Plains states like KS, MO, IA have been GOP for a while but I don't think they are as religiously monochrome as a few in the deep south or just as radical as some of the mountain west.

Kansas is home to the Westboro Church and where they bombed abortion clinics.

6 minutes ago, oblong said:

Ok now I get it.  I wasn’t sure if his question. I thought me meant how many would pass a CA amendment.  I agree with you. Kentucky?

Yeah, I didn't get the question at first either. I think most would pass laws to varying degrees to codify Roe.

Edited August 25, 2022 by Motown Bombers

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

Kansas is home to the Westboro Church and where they bombed abortion clinics.

true, but you could say MI is the only state where the crazies tried to kidnap the Gov. The level of extremism is certainly a marker, but not the only one. Another example would be Oregon/WA. Those states in general go blue today, but there is a real lunatic fringe up in the mountains that is probably a lot worse than the MI militia was in it's heyday, but you couldn't judge the average level of radicalism of the rest of the state by it.

[Motown Bombers]

[gehringer_2]

7 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Ha - forgot about Arkansas. I wondered a little about LA because of the big urban pop an NOLA but I guess that doesn't swing it much. S Dak seems like an outlier also. Maybe anyone with liberal tendencies in S Dak has already migrated to MN. When we were living there the pull of the Twin Cities on S Dak youth was pretty clear, both for employment and cultural reasons.

Edited August 25, 2022 by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

27 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Interesting map, although Kansas kinda makes these estimates look conservative.

My guesses would be OK, AR, AL, LA, MS WV, and UT. TN and KY seem like coinflips (KY will be on the ballot this fall I believe)

[Motown Bombers]

This is a winnable district for Democrats.

 

[ewsieg]

I'm in Macomb county, Marlinga is just a name that is known which is good as James is now known too.  Does the name Marlinga carry any weight in Oakland county though?  Guess that is the question.  

Biggest key I see in those stats are the unfavorable numbers.  Not a whole lot of voters turned off just by his name, unlike James.

[mtutiger]

Is the Target Insyght poll a D internal?

District level polling can be a crapshoot, but if Dixon's numbers are like that in a district anchored mostly by Macomb County, she's going to have a lot of trouble winning Michigan.

[Motown Bombers]

5 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

I'm in Macomb county, Marlinga is just a name that is known which is good as James is now known too.  Does the name Marlinga carry any weight in Oakland county though?  Guess that is the question.  

Biggest key I see in those stats are the unfavorable numbers.  Not a whole lot of voters turned off just by his name, unlike James.

Only Rochester Hills is in the district from Oakland County. This is a mostly Macomb County district that does not include deep red districts like Macomb Township, Chesterfield, Washington Township etc. 

[Motown Bombers]

6 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Is the Target Insyght poll a D internal?

District level polling can be a crapshoot, but if Dixon's numbers are like that in a district anchored mostly by Macomb County, she's going to have a lot of trouble winning Michigan.

I believe it is a D internal. Keep in mind Whitmer was +9 in this district in 2018. This district includes places like Eastpointe which was Biden +50 and Warren which is the third largest city in the state that was Biden +13. This district does not include ruby red area like much of Macomb Township, Chesterfield, Washington which will bring the county closer than this poll indicates. People write off this district because it's Macomb County but it doesn't include a lot of the reddest parts of the county and includes all of the bluest parts of the county. 

Edited August 25, 2022 by Motown Bombers

[mtutiger]

 

[Motown Bombers]

The funny thing is all the small donors donate only to Trump who doesn't use those funds to help any candidates and the RNC is footing all of Trump's legal bills. 

Edited August 25, 2022 by Motown Bombers

[Mr.TaterSalad]

Pastor Ralph Rebandt, who wanted to be Governor and now wants to be LG, says he won't meet alone in a room with a woman who isn't his wife. UM, what century are we even in? Furthermore, how can be be Tudor Dixon's LG if he won't even ever meet with her alone?

[Motown Bombers]

3 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Pastor Ralph Rebandt, who wanted to be Governor and now wants to be LG, says he won't meet alone in a room with a woman who isn't his wife. UM, what century are we even in? Furthermore, how can be be Tudor Dixon's LG if he won't even ever meet with her alone?

I can already guarantee if you confiscated his personal computer you will find child porn on it, or at the very least something very salacious.

[oblong]

all my kooky fundamentlist people from HS were for Rebandt.

 

[CMRivdogs]

31 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Pastor Ralph Rebandt, who wanted to be Governor and now wants to be LG, says he won't meet alone in a room with a woman who isn't his wife. UM, what century are we even in? Furthermore, how can be be Tudor Dixon's LG if he won't even ever meet with her alone?

Is he allowed to attend press conferences and look at Dixon adoringly like Pence did to Trump for 4 years?

[Motown Bombers]

 

[CMRivdogs]

If it passes the GQP's in the legislator will figure out a way to undo the will of the electorate.

[mtutiger]

Beginning to think Dobbs is this seasons "defund the police"...

[chasfh]

22 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

If it passes the GQP's in the legislator will figure out a way to undo the will of the electorate.

They always play the long game, so at some point this will happen. Maybe not next year, or the year after, or in five years or ten years or twenty years. But it will happen at some point. It took them fifty years to overturn Roe.  The way they figure it, they got time.