The 2022 Midterm Elections

[Mr.TaterSalad]

In happier news, John Fetterman continues to prove why he is the best candidate of the cycle with this great TV ad. Calling out Dr, Oz for wearing Gucci loafers and saying he wouldn't last an hour in Braddock Pennsylvania (inferring Oz thinks he's better than they are) is great messaging.

 

[Motown Bombers]

1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Trump proved that politics is a popularity contest of how big you can make your brand and celebrity. In Georgia, Walker is a celebrity among SEC and Bulldog fans, which is more than half the state. For all the concerns Republicans have with their Senate races, this one shouldn't be one of them. Walker is in great shape compared to their other contested races and he's the nuttiest and dumbest of them all. But SEC and Bulldog football is king down south and in Georgia. I think sans maybe JD Vance in Ohio, Walker has the best shot at winning among their contested races because of his celebrity status.

When you dive deeper into the numbers in the poll you can see that Herschel Walker gets 25% of the "urban" vote which I think is largely the black vote. Now, you can dismiss that off hand and say no way a Republican candidate, Walker or otherwise, gets that percentage of the black vote. But I think that misses the point of how much more football can matter than politics. African Americans love their football down their too and many remember Walker as a God as well.

I'd be interested to know if Barry Sanders is a Democrat and has any interest in running for Senate. Barry's got a big brand name in Michigan and specifically in it's largest metro area, Detroit. If Stabenow doesn't run again in 2024, someone should give Barry Sanders a call and at least inquire as to his interest, assuming he's a Democrat. Sanders, while he may or may not be a good legislator, would be a good candidate for sure. That's only a partial joke.

Southerners like God and football. Warnock is an actual reverend. They just like Walker because he spouts the same MAGA bs. 

Calvin Johnson would be a better candidate since he's into legalizing weed. 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[romad1]

51 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

Really hard to believe!

[CMRivdogs]

56 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

This was a ranked choice election. IIRC it was the second vote involving the top 3 vote getters from the "preliminary round" (my terms). It was a 3 way vote, 2 Republicans split the vote giving Petola the win.

https://www.npr.org/2022/08/31/1120327126/palin-peltola-begich-alaska-special-house-election-results

This was a special election to fill a vacant seat until January. 

[RatkoVarda]

Dems pick up a seat in Blood Red Alaska; here's why that's bad news for Joe Biden.

[Motown Bombers]

 

[RatkoVarda]

9 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

This was a ranked choice election. IIRC it was the second vote involving the top 3 vote getters from the "preliminary round" (my terms). It was a 3 way vote, 2 Republicans split the vote giving Petola the win.

I think this was the first ranked choice federal vote ever?

Begich was the other GOP candidate. When he finished 3rd, he was eliminated, and his votes went to the next ranked candidate that his supporters indicated. Palin needed to be that next ranked candidate for about 62% of his supporters to win. She got only 50%, with 20% people not choosing anyone.

[Motown Bombers]

Maine had ranked choice in 2020 but I believe all candidates got 50% on the first ballot.

[ewsieg]

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2022/08/31/voting-rights-ballot-proposal-headed-court-after-canvassers-deadlock-michigan-abortion-rights/7948041001/

Very likely the MI supreme court allows this on the ballot.  If so, Whitmer minds well stop campaigning as there would be no reason to waste funds on a race you already won.

[mtutiger]

lol

[Motown Bombers]

Nobody had a problem with ranked choice when Susan Collins won. 

[Motown Bombers]

18 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2022/08/31/voting-rights-ballot-proposal-headed-court-after-canvassers-deadlock-michigan-abortion-rights/7948041001/

Very likely the MI supreme court allows this on the ballot.  If so, Whitmer minds well stop campaigning as there would be no reason to waste funds on a race you already won.

Whitmer can come to MI-10 and flex her muscle. It's a winnable district but Marlinga is underfunded. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

If this poll is close to being accurate it's going to be a bloodbath for Democrats and we've all celebrated the good news in the Senate waaaaay too early. From the poll they gauged that inflation is by far the most important issue to voters (21%), with education coming in second (11%). Another poll where inflation and cost of living is what dominates voters minds.

 

Edited September 1, 2022 by Mr.TaterSalad

[mtutiger]

11 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

If this poll is close to being accurate it's going to be a bloodbath for Democrats and we've all celebrated the good news in the Senate waaaaay too early. From the poll they gauged that inflation is by far the most important issue to voters (21%), with education coming in second (11%). Another poll where inflation and cost of living is what dominates voters minds.

 

I suspect Bennett will win in the end, but this is one of the rare cases this cycle of the GOP nominating a decent candidate who actually fits the ideals of the state and the result here is likely a reflection of that.

O'Dea's views on abortion, which are far less extreme than most GOP candidates running this cycle, probably helps elevate other issues as well.

[mtutiger]

37 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Nobody had a problem with ranked choice when Susan Collins won. 

They have always had a problem with RCV, to be honest.

No system for electing candidates is going to be perfect, but looking at how the election turned out, and how even exhausted ballots (ie. voters who voted for Begich and then left 2nd Choice blank) wouldn't have changed the outcome, it is by no means clear that Palin would have won election under a conventional FPTP primary system.

[Motown Bombers]

 

[ben9753]

Assholes asking why you beat your wife doesn't define your marital harmony. Assholes yelling the election was stolen shouldn't "define elections in recent years". Allowing these nut cases to set the framing of issues drives me nuts.

[pfife]

Ranked Choice voting is so confusing a dude who threw his bass guitar in the air and hit himself in the head can understand it. 

 

[mtutiger]

 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

When you look at things like what Buddy Carter said here about undoing cost saving on prescription drug prices, Rick Scott out releasing a plan about sunsetting Social Security and Medicare, and virtually every Republican running's opinion on abortion, it is amazing how politically out of touch they've become. If it weren't for inflation and high gas prices they'd have literally noting to run on that was popular this election cycle. Their own political ineptness and ability to read the tea leaves of America has taken what should be a gift wrapped midterm and instead made it in play for the Democrats.

[gehringer_2]

27 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

When you look at things like what Buddy Carter said here about undoing cost saving on prescription drug prices, Rick Scott out releasing a plan about sunsetting Social Security and Medicare, and virtually every Republican running's opinion on abortion, it is amazing how politically out of touch they've become. If it weren't for inflation and high gas prices they'd have literally noting to run on that was popular this election cycle. Their own political ineptness and ability to read the tea leaves of America has taken what should be a gift wrapped midterm and instead made it in play for the Democrats.

oil at $86 today. I call it 50/50 that by the time of the election core inflation is already at or below 3.5%. And it will have had nothing to do with anything the Fed did, it will just be the snap back that was due after the bust and boom caused by COVID. You can argue, and pretty much rightly, that the Fed has been too loose for too long, but demand has been so slack with aging populations in the developed world that all that was really able to was drive up was asset prices. As things settle back to some version of normal, the Fed tightening is going to affect asset prices on the down side just like it did on the up side, but I am skeptical it will have a whole lot more more impact on general price levels than QE et all ever did on the way up. 

But time will tell.

[1984Echoes]

Inflation is already coming down sharply.

25 basis points their Sept. meeting. Maybe even 0, but I wouldn't want to bet on that one... I'll stick with the 25 and a slew of upcoming news that inflation is coming down fast.