The 2022 Midterm Elections

[buddha]

kinzinger out in illinois.  they gerrymandered him into a big republican district so he has decided not to run again.

[chasfh]

I'm not sure when I'm ever going to believe a pre-election poll again, but it won't be during the mid-terms, that's for sure.

 

 

[oblong]

have polls been right since 2016?  I'm not asking a rhetorical question.... just don't pay close enough attention anymore. Has the landcape changed too much that make them unreliable?

 

[pfife]

I think there's something(s) about Trump and/or Trumpism they're missing.    I don't have the slightest idea how to fix it but the GOP is outperforming polls quite a bit since right about 2016.

[oblong]

3 minutes ago, pfife said:

I think there's something(s) about Trump and/or Trumpism they're missing.    I don't have the slightest idea how to fix it but the GOP is outperforming polls quite a bit since right about 2016.

I suspect its because his voters don't respond to polls.  They don't answer the phone, are unreachable.... whatever it is they use to conduct the research.  They're off their grid of reachables.

Just look at all the people in Dallas a few days ago waiting for both JFK and JFK Jr.  You think those people will sit through a poll?  What we've found since Trump arrived is 30% of our electorate are just brain dead rubes that will believe anything and are so far out there than you can't reason with them.   We probably thought it was 10%.  Much higher.

 

[Motown Bombers]

I thought the 2018 midterm polls were accurate and the Virginia poll was fairly accurate. I still think the polls are not accurately capturing white working class. I look at Michigan and Minnesota in 2020. Biden averaged a 7 point lead in both. Biden won Minnesota by 7. He only won Michigan by 3. Michigan has a higher uneducated white working class while Minnesota has a higher college educated white population. It seemed like states that had the higher white educated population had more accurate polls. 

[Archie]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

I thought the 2018 midterm polls were accurate and the Virginia poll was fairly accurate. I still think the polls are not accurately capturing white working class. I look at Michigan and Minnesota in 2020. Biden averaged a 7 point lead in both. Biden won Minnesota by 7. He only won Michigan by 3. Michigan has a higher uneducated white working class while Minnesota has a higher college educated white population. It seemed like states that had the higher white educated population had more accurate polls. 

Their can't be too many educated people in Minnesota.  They elected Ilhan Omar to office.  😀

[CMRivdogs]

The. Governor Elect ran on voting integrity. Couldn’t even do it in his own house.
 

 

[Jim Cowan]

That's so funny, that's the funniest thing in ages.

[smr-nj]

3 hours ago, CMRivdogs said:

The. Governor Elect ran on voting integrity. Couldn’t even do it in his own house.
 

 

Listen, I’m seeing that attempt as a win-win in their eyes.  If nobody questioned it, and he got to vote , without it being reversed… and he’s won….. win for him.
If he lost, and nobody questioned it, but later caught it, he can claim “see? How easy it was to cast an illegal vote? I’m sure Terry McA has thousands of his minions that did this!”… a win for him.

Probably thought “what the hell. Let’s try it”

[CMRivdogs]

What gets me is he tried it once and was turned away, then went back and tried it again. Claiming he didn’t know. Don’t they teach anything in those AP Government classes in Great Falls?

[smr-nj]

4 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

What gets me is he tried it once and was turned away, then went back and tried it again. Claiming he didn’t know. Don’t they teach anything in those AP Government classes in Great Falls?

If a person of color had tried this, ….

oh, never mind. We all know the answer , and that in this case there will be absolutely no repercussion.

[CMRivdogs]

8 minutes ago, smr-nj said:

If a person of color had tried this, ….

oh, never mind. We all know the answer , and that in this case there will be absolutely no repercussion.

It’s likely he may get a stern talking to by his father…..

[1984Echoes]

8 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

It’s likely he may get a stern talking to by his father…..

I prefer the 10 years in prison option.

[Archie]

He should have told them he was a democrat.  They wouldn't have asked for ID and then given him a handful of mail in ballots to fill out and put in the box. 😅😅😅

[1984Echoes]

39 minutes ago, smr-nj said:

This is the trolliest troll post maybe ever. 😂

 

 

What were you saying about the trolliest troll? (I'm thinking that is more like botton 10 versus top 10 in trolliest trolls as I've seen some real doozies... including):

 

1 minute ago, Archie said:

He should have told them he was a democrat.  They wouldn't have asked for ID and then given him a handful of mail in ballots to fill out and put in the box. 😅😅😅

 

[Archie]

Take it easy there Mr. Echos...the 😅 meant it was a joke.  

[chasfh]

On 11/5/2021 at 11:35 AM, oblong said:

I suspect its because his voters don't respond to polls.  They don't answer the phone, are unreachable.... whatever it is they use to conduct the research.  They're off their grid of reachables.

Just look at all the people in Dallas a few days ago waiting for both JFK and JFK Jr.  You think those people will sit through a poll?  What we've found since Trump arrived is 30% of our electorate are just brain dead rubes that will believe anything and are so far out there than you can't reason with them.   We probably thought it was 10%.  Much higher.

 

I blame American schools and the parents who enable them.

[mtutiger]

On 11/5/2021 at 11:25 AM, oblong said:

have polls been right since 2016?  I'm not asking a rhetorical question.... just don't pay close enough attention anymore. Has the landcape changed too much that make them unreliable?

 

They were largely accurate in 2018 and on Tuesday. Outside of New Jersey anyway.

The big takeaway for me from Tuesday is less about the accuracy of state level polling data - it's more about how Biden's national job approval (-10 to-12 on average), with a couple of exceptions (such as the PA Supreme Court race), lines up remarkably well with the final results.

In a -10 to -12 environment nationally for Biden, it makes sense that Dems would lose VA (which Biden won by 11) by 2 points and only win NJ (which Biden won by 16) by ~3-4 points. In that context, nothing that happened should be that surprising.

Edited November 7, 2021 by mtutiger

[buddha]

12 hours ago, mtutiger said:

They were largely accurate in 2018 and on Tuesday. Outside of New Jersey anyway.

The big takeaway for me from Tuesday is less about the accuracy of state level polling data - it's more about how Biden's national job approval (-10 to-12 on average), with a couple of exceptions (such as the PA Supreme Court race), lines up remarkably well with the final results.

In a -10 to -12 environment nationally for Biden, it makes sense that Dems would lose VA (which Biden won by 11) by 2 points and only win NJ (which Biden won by 16) by ~3-4 points. In that context, nothing that happened should be that surprising.

the new jersey results should concern democrats more than virginia, imo.  virginia seemed pretty likely if you follow historical trends.

[Motown Bombers]

4 minutes ago, buddha said:

the new jersey results should concern democrats more than virginia, imo.  virginia seemed pretty likely if you follow historical trends.

A Democrat hasn't won re-election in New Jersey in 40 years. Murphy being re-elected was pretty unlikely if you follow historical trends. 

[buddha]

2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

A Democrat hasn't won re-election in New Jersey in 40 years. Murphy being re-elected was pretty unlikely if you follow historical trends. 

joe biden won jersey by 16 points.  almost losing it two years later should be worrying for democrats.

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, buddha said:

joe biden won jersey by 16 points.  almost losing it two years later should be worrying for democrats.

Chris Christie defeated the incumbent Democratic governor in 2009 after Obama won New Jersey by 16 points. 

[buddha]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

Chris Christie defeated the incumbent Democratic governor in 2009 after Obama won New Jersey by 16 points. 

so you would equate it more to the virginia result?

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, buddha said:

so you would equate it more to the virginia result?

I'm not sure there is much to make of it. State elections are weird. Massachusetts, Maryland, and Vermont have Republican governors while Louisiana, Kansas and Kentucky have Democratic governors. Montana recently went 16 straight years with a Democratic governor. Democrats did well in California and the New Mexico special election so who knows.